A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[notin]

The updated 40 Man Roster, as of tonight:

 

SP: Sale, Whitlock, Bello, Pivetta, Paxton (Mata, Walter)

SP/RP: Crawford, Winckowski (Seabold, Murphy)

RP: Houck, Schreiber, Barnes, Brasier, Taylor, Kelly (German, Ort, DHern)

C: McGuire, Wong (RHernandez)

1B: Casas

2B: Story, Arroyo

3B: Devers

SS: Chang (Hamilton, Downs)

LF: Verdugo (Cordero, Duran)

CF: Hernandez (Rafaela)

RF: Refsnyder (Abreu)

DH: Dalbec, Hosmer

 

Possible Rule 5 losses: TWard, Wallace, Scott, Wikelman G, Paulino

 

 

No spots open.

 

Sox cannot make a Rule 5 selection without an open 40 man roster spot..

[notin]

And I am openly criticizing Bloom for protecting Ort (especially Ort) and Chang while leaving Ward and Wallace exposed…

[mvp 78]

So Bloom is not as high on Jacob Wallace as I am, or feels he won’t get selected.

 

But here’s the thing - he will…

 

50th ranked prospect on SoxProspects. Can’t protect every prospect.

[Hugh2]

No spots open.

 

Sox cannot make a Rule 5 selection without an open 40 man roster spot..

 

But do they need to? They could dfa a guy at any time right?

[mvp 78]

And I am openly criticizing Bloom for protecting Ort (especially Ort) and Chang while leaving Ward and Wallace exposed…

 

Ward will 26, always had relatively fringy stuff and is no longer a starter. I can see why they may not have protect him.

 

Ort and Chang will be DFA’d for future moves. If they added Ward and Wallace to the 40 man, it’s 2 less FA signings later. Just taking a risk they sneak through the draft.

[mvp 78]

But do they need to? They could dfa a guy at any time right?

 

They’ll wait until right before the draft.

[notin]

Ward will 26, always had relatively fringy stuff and is no longer a starter. I can see why they may not have protect him.

 

Ort and Chang will be DFA’d for future moves. If they added Ward and Wallace to the 40 man, it’s 2 less FA signings later. Just taking a risk they sneak through the draft.

 

If you’re going to hold being 26 against Ward, how old is Ort again?

[notin]

Ward will 26, always had relatively fringy stuff and is no longer a starter. I can see why they may not have protect him.

 

Ort and Chang will be DFA’d for future moves. If they added Ward and Wallace to the 40 man, it’s 2 less FA signings later. Just taking a risk they sneak through the draft.

 

That’s what Ronaldo Hernandez is for!!

[notin]

They’ll wait until right before the draft.

 

If they want to make a pick at all. The Garrett Whitlock picks are a definite rarity…

[moonslav59]

No spots open.

 

Sox cannot make a Rule 5 selection without an open 40 man roster spot..

 

I see 4-5 guys we could DFA is a second to make room:

 

1. Chang

2. DHern

3. Ort

4. Cordero

5. R Hern

 

 

Downs or Duran won't get DFA'd but I could care less if either were traded for next to nothing or cut loose.

[moonslav59]

Ward will 26, always had relatively fringy stuff and is no longer a starter. I can see why they may not have protect him.

 

Ort and Chang will be DFA’d for future moves. If they added Ward and Wallace to the 40 man, it’s 2 less FA signings later. Just taking a risk they sneak through the draft.

 

Ward is not a SP'er anymore?

 

I'd prefer him over Ort or DHern, despite both having some nasty stuff.

 

I like Wallace, but I think the odds are 50:1 he gets selected.

 

I'm most worried about losing Wikelman. Not that he is the most likely to be taken, but he may be close enough to be selected, and has some good upside.

[moonslav59]

With no Rule 5, last winter, some think this draft will be more meaningful.

 

Also, the ML rosters are now 26 players not 25. That may make it easier for some team that is tanking to make room for a promising but not ML ready prospect to sit on their 26, all year long.

Edited November 16, 2022 by moonslav59

[notin]

With no Rule 5, last winter, some think this draft will be more meaningful.

 

Also, the ML rosters are now 26 players not 25. That may make it easier for some team that is tanking to make room for a promising but not ML ready prospect to sit on their 26, all year long.

 

That’s actually the problem with the Ruld 5 draft. Players lose a year of development. Teams lose a year of control. In most cases, who wins?

[moonslav59]

That’s actually the problem with the Ruld 5 draft. Players lose a year of development. Teams lose a year of control. In most cases, who wins?

 

I can see why opportunities to make the big club works in a prospects favor, but yes, if the kid is never going to play, it's a messed up situation for a player's development.

 

That being said, I'm thinking we will see more "farther away" prospects taken, this draft than ever before. Here's why:

 

1. More teams seem to see the value in really sucking vs just plain sucking. (the tankers) They don't care about winning in 2022, and they may actually prefer to be near a top drafting team.

 

2. More "draftable" players should be available due to no Rule 5, last year, and the missed year of player development in 2020.

 

3. Rosters have never been at 26 after a Rule 5 draft. The "extra" slot makes it easier for some teams to designate a slot for a raw but high upside prospect.

 

The Sox do not have the best farm in MLB, but I'm thinking guys like Paulino (ranked 9th), Wikelman (ranked 13th) and T Ward (18th)- maybe Wallace- would have significant value to teams with no chance at winning in 2023. Players from other teams, likely more so.

 

[moonslav59]

Okay, some decisions have already been made. The Rule 5 players were chosen, and we DFA'd a couple of players we all knew would not be on the roster on opening day.

 

Next up:

 

Signing FAs and DFA'ing or trading someone to make room for each addition.

 

Dec 7 is the Rule 5 draft. Will we add a player or two, or will we lose a player or two (Wikelman, Ward or maybe Wallace or Scott?)

 

How close were/are we to bringing back big Nate?

 

Do we non-tender Cordero, Brasier or even Taylor if his health is still not looking good?

 

Word, here in Houston, is Verlander wants 3 years. The team will likely say no to 3 but yes to 2. Could he be a "bridge" signing? He'd take a big chunk out of a re-set budget, whether in 2023 or 2024. I'd say we don't even contact his agent.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Okay, some decisions have already been made. The Rule 5 players were chosen, and we DFA'd a couple of players we all knew would not be on the roster on opening day.

 

Next up:

 

Signing FAs and DFA'ing or trading someone to make room for each addition.

 

Dec 7 is the Rule 5 draft. Will we add a player or two, or will we lose a player or two (Wikelman, Ward or maybe Wallace or Scott?)

 

How close were/are we to bringing back big Nate?

 

Do we non-tender Cordero, Brasier or even Taylor if his health is still not looking good?

 

Word, here in Houston, is Verlander wants 3 years. The team will likely say no to 3 but yes to 2. Could he be a "bridge" signing? He'd take a big chunk out of a re-set budget, whether in 2023 or 2024. I'd say we don't even contact his agent.

 

For what it will cost for just one year of Verlander, we can probably distribute that over three years of Eovaldi. When comparing the two, maybe the biggest question isn't who will accrue the most WAR in the next three years, but who will make the most starts...

[Hugh2]

For what it will cost for just one year of Verlander, we can probably distribute that over three years of Eovaldi. When comparing the two, maybe the biggest question isn't who will accrue the most WAR in the next three years, but who will make the most starts...

 

Verlander is seeking 120/3 and I think he gets it. Easily looks worth it after this year, but such risk with his age. He could literally hit the wall next year. Too many eggs in one basket for me. Eovaldi might sign for close to 40/4

[moonslav59]

Verlander is seeking 120/3 and I think he gets it. Easily looks worth it after this year, but such risk with his age. He could literally hit the wall next year. Too many eggs in one basket for me. Eovaldi might sign for close to 40/4

 

I'd hesitate to give Nate 3 years.

 

I think trading for a solid starter is our best chance at making the budget work. To do that, we need to change the philosophy as a one time thing. I'm not sure management is ready to do that, right now. Maybe next winter is possible.

 

If we don't get a long time SS, it would mean mayer will not be part of any such trade.

 

Maybe Romero makes big strides, next season, and he could be the centerpiece of such a deal.

 

It looks like we will need Rafaela in the OF and Bello, Mata and others, too. I'm not sure we have a farm deep enough and good enough to pull off a big trade like I imagine is needed.

[moonslav59]

At some point, DFA Chang, DHern, Ort and Cordero and add 4 solid free agents or trade additions.

 

SS _______ (CF with Kike moving to SS or 2B with Story moving to SS)

RF _______

SP/RP _______

RP _______

 

That's bare minimum additions. I might trade Brasier, RHern, Downs and or Duran (Taylor if his prognosis is dim) for non-40 man roster prospects to open up room for 2-3 more additions:

RP ______

RP ______

DH (1B/OF?) _______

C ______

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

 

Maybe Romero makes big strides, next season, and he could be the centerpiece of such a deal.

 

 

Would you keep Mikey as the shortstop of the future if you could swap Mayer for Alcantara?

 

The only way I trade my #1 prospect is for a #1 ace starter -- like the Sale deal.

 

As for Romero, the only Sox prospects with higher fielding ratings are Mayer and Luis Ravelo. The latter is 19, Romero 18 -- but Mikey projects as a better hitter... so far.

[Hugh2]

Would you keep Mikey as the shortstop of the future if you could swap Mayer for Alcantara?

 

The only way I trade my #1 prospect is for a #1 ace starter -- like the Sale deal.

 

As for Romero, the only Sox prospects with higher fielding ratings are Mayer and Luis Ravelo. The latter is 19, Romero 18 -- but Mikey projects as a better hitter... so far.

 

I absolutely would. Probably is it's going to take more than Mayer. Marlins will also want Bello and Bleis.

[moonslav59]

Would you keep Mikey as the shortstop of the future if you could swap Mayer for Alcantara?

 

The only way I trade my #1 prospect is for a #1 ace starter -- like the Sale deal.

 

As for Romero, the only Sox prospects with higher fielding ratings are Mayer and Luis Ravelo. The latter is 19, Romero 18 -- but Mikey projects as a better hitter... so far.

 

I'd do that trade, but we'd have to give more than Mayer. BTV has Alcantara at 140 and Mayer at 55, Casas 39 and Bello 33. It might take all 3 to get him.

 

BTV accepts this deal:

 

Rafaela, Verdugo, Wikelman and Murphy

for

Lopez, Berti, A Garcia (salary dump) and Cabrera

 

We then trade Houck for JP Crawford, Flexen and Winker.

 

We sign RP'ers Fulmer and Rogers giving us this 2023 roster:

 

SP

Lopez

Sale

Whitlock

Bello

Pivetta

 

SP/RP

Cabrera, Flexen, Crawford

 

RP

Rogers

Fulmer

Schreiber

Barnes

Taylor

Winckowski

Kelly/German

 

C McGuire, Wong

1B Casas, Dalbec/Hosmer

2B Story, Arroyo

SS Crawford

3B Devers

LF AGarcia

CF Kike

RF Berti, Refsnyder

DH Winker (LF)

 

We still have Mayer, Yorke, Bleis, Romero and others on the farm.

 

[mvp 78]

Ward is not a SP'er anymore?

 

I'd prefer him over Ort or DHern, despite both having some nasty stuff.

 

I like Wallace, but I think the odds are 50:1 he gets selected.

 

I'm most worried about losing Wikelman. Not that he is the most likely to be taken, but he may be close enough to be selected, and has some good upside.

 

Ward will move up the ladder as a starter, but I think he transitions to a reliever role. Even SoxProspects has his ceiling as "back end starter."

 

Ort and DHern will be moved off the 40 man at a later date.

 

Wikelman could be a big loss, but he's also a few years away for the Sox. I don't see him being a good contributor in BOS until 2025. He started off the season really rough, but turned it around after some mechanic changes. Maybe another team takes a chance on him. He just is far away.

[mvp 78]

That’s actually the problem with the Ruld 5 draft. Players lose a year of development. Teams lose a year of control. In most cases, who wins?

 

Guys like Whitlock and Baddoo who are actually ready to contribute. Otherwise, it's just kind of a silly gimmick that was meant to prevent teams from hoarding prospects.

[mvp 78]

Verlander is seeking 120/3 and I think he gets it. Easily looks worth it after this year, but such risk with his age. He could literally hit the wall next year. Too many eggs in one basket for me. Eovaldi might sign for close to 40/4

 

3 years for Verlander? That's a tough, tough call.

[mvp 78]

Would you keep Mikey as the shortstop of the future if you could swap Mayer for Alcantara?

 

The only way I trade my #1 prospect is for a #1 ace starter -- like the Sale deal.

 

As for Romero, the only Sox prospects with higher fielding ratings are Mayer and Luis Ravelo. The latter is 19, Romero 18 -- but Mikey projects as a better hitter... so far.

 

Not sure Alcantara does it for me?

[moonslav59]

3 years for Verlander? That's a tough, tough call.

 

He's asking for 3 but will probably get 2. It could be a ploy to up the pay for 2, of get an option for the 3rd year with a significant buyout.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I absolutely would. Probably is it's going to take more than Mayer. Marlins will also want Bello and Bleis.

 

Of course they would, and this is why I just don't see Bloom making any big-time trades this winter... or any winter until he actually does.

 

I'm totally prepared for more of the same Bloom moves -- one step up, one step down, up, down, updown... treading basepaths until all Mookies, Xanders and Raffys have priced themselves out of Boston -- and all that remains is a roster full of minimum wage prospects and a few owner splashes like Story.

[moonslav59]

Not sure Alcantara does it for me?

 

I'd love to have him but not at the cost BTV gives him:

 

140 Alcantara

39 Lopez

37 Rogers

27 Luzardo

22 Garrett

10 Cabrera

(7.5 Berti)

 

Salary dump add-ons?

-33 A Garcia

-21 Soler

-1 Bleier

[moonslav59]

Of course they would, and this is why I just don't see Bloom making any big-time trades this winter... or any winter until he actually does.

 

I'm totally prepared for more of the same Bloom moves -- one step up, one step down, up, down, updown... treading basepaths until all Mookies, Xanders and Raffys have priced themselves out of Boston -- and all that remains is a roster full of minimum wage prospects and a few owner splashes like Story.

 

I do think there will come a time Bloom pulls the trigger on a big prospect trade. I felt the same about Ben, but he was gone before he had a chance.