A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[moonslav59]

A business owner that wants a better chance at hoisting a WS trophy in November?

 

I get that, and if JH ever thinks we are close to another ring, he may bite that bullet.

[mvp 78]

I get that, and if JH ever thinks we are close to another ring, he may bite that bullet.

 

I'm sure there are some posters that would rather him eat a bullet than bite a bullet, but I digress.

 

If it was silver tipped, he may choose to not imbibe.

[moonslav59]

I'm sure there are some posters that would rather him eat a bullet than bite a bullet, but I digress.

 

If it was silver tipped, he may choose to not imbibe.

 

One poster seems ready to prefer he bites into a Cyanide pill.

 

[moonslav59]

Idiom: Throw good money after bad.

 

The Seattle Mariners in 2021 paid James Paxton $8.25 million to pitch 1.1 innings at a 6.75 ERA.

 

The Boston Red Sox turned around and guaranteed Paxton $10 million in 2022 when the lefthander pitched no MLB innings.

 

Paxton remains well-regarded in Seattle as a former MLB player but his active days may be over.

 

 

Paxton's last 2 years have been a mess, but in his previous 4 seasons, he never pitched less than 120 innings and had an ERA+ of 116. Teams often sign players on hopes of recovery to form. They swung and missed twice on Paxton.

 

It's easy to chose the sample size of 2 seasons to make a strongpoint against his worth being $4M/1, but one could go back 3, 4, 5 or 6 years and find supporting evidence he's worth the risk/gamble.

 

Some similar or higher contract pitchers...

6 years IP

808 M perez 100 ERA+

799 Bundy 90 ERA+

699 Kluber 129 ERA+(281 IP last 4 years)

643 Boyd 96 ERA+

591 Archer 93 ERA+

590 Paxton 113 ERA+ (172 last 4 yrs)

425 Pineda 105

373 Smyly 95

343 Richards 99

 

Edited October 28, 2022 by moonslav59

[harmony]

Paxton's last 2 years have been a mess, but in his previous 4 seasons, he never pitched less than 120 innings and had an ERA+ of 116. Teams often sign players on hopes of recovery to form. They swung and missed twice on Paxton.

 

It's easy to chose the sample size of 2 seasons to make a strongpoint against his worth being $4M/1, but one could go back 3, 4, 5 or 6 years and find supporting evidence he's worth the risk/gamble.

 

Some similar or higher contract pitchers...

6 years IP

808 M perez 100 ERA+

799 Bundy 90 ERA+

699 Kluber 129 ERA+(281 IP last 4 years)

643 Boyd 96 ERA+

590 Paxton 113 ERA+ (172 last 4 yrs)

425 Pineda 105

373 Smyly 95

343 Richards 99

 

That's why Chris Archer provided the closest comp.

[mvp 78]

Paxton's last 2 years have been a mess, but in his previous 4 seasons, he never pitched less than 120 innings and had an ERA+ of 116. Teams often sign players on hopes of recovery to form. They swung and missed twice on Paxton.

 

It's easy to chose the sample size of 2 seasons to make a strongpoint against his worth being $4M/1, but one could go back 3, 4, 5 or 6 years and find supporting evidence he's worth the risk/gamble.

 

Some similar or higher contract pitchers...

6 years IP

808 M perez 100 ERA+

799 Bundy 90 ERA+

699 Kluber 129 ERA+(281 IP last 4 years)

643 Boyd 96 ERA+

590 Paxton 113 ERA+ (172 last 4 yrs)

425 Pineda 105

373 Smyly 95

343 Richards 99

 

 

His past 3 years have been a mess.

 

2020: 20 innings, cut short due to injury

2021: 1.1 inning, cut short due to injury

2022: 0 innings, out due to multiple injuries.

 

The only season he didn't get put on the IL/DL or MiLB inactive list was 2013.

 

14: 15 Day DL in April, transferred to 60 Day in June, returned in August

15: 15 Day DL in May, wasn't reactivated until September

16: 15 Day DL

17: 2 separate 10 Day DL trips

18: 2 separate 10 Day DL trips

19: 10 Day DL

20: 15 Day IL transferred to 60 Day and out for season

21: 15 Day IL transferred to 60 Day and out for season

22: 60 Day IL out for season

[moonslav59]

That's why Chris Archer provided the closest comp.

 

I went back and added him:

 

591 Archer 93 ERA+

 

Same innings- but 20 less on ERA+.

[moonslav59]

His past 3 years have been a mess.

 

2020: 20 innings, cut short due to injury

2021: 1.1 inning, cut short due to injury

2022: 0 innings, out due to multiple injuries.

 

The only season he didn't get put on the IL/DL or MiLB inactive list was 2013.

 

14: 15 Day DL in April, transferred to 60 Day in June, returned in August

15: 15 Day DL in May, wasn't reactivated until September

16: 15 Day DL

17: 2 separate 10 Day DL trips

18: 2 separate 10 Day DL trips

19: 10 Day DL

20: 15 Day IL transferred to 60 Day and out for season

21: 15 Day IL transferred to 60 Day and out for season

22: 60 Day IL out for season

 

Yes, I should have said last 3 years. Plus, I counted back 6 years on Paxton, starting from 2021. My bad.

[harmony]

I went back and added him:

 

591 Archer 93 ERA+

 

Same innings- but 20 less on ERA+.

Last offseason Matthew Boyd, who is two years younger than James Paxton, signed a one-year, $5.2 million contract with the San Francisco Giants, taking a pay cut after the Detroit Tigers non-tendered the lefthander coming off an injury-shortened 2021 season of a 3.89 ERA in 15 starts. The Giants knew Boyd would not be available on Opening Day and at the trade deadline traded an unused Boyd to the Seattle Mariners, who deployed Boyd as a reliever.

 

Boyd is now a free agent and might prefer a team with multiple openings in its starting rotation.

 

Or not.

[moonslav59]

If we want to beef up our team OBP, next season, here are some of the OBP leaders in OBP since 2021 (400+ PAs):

 

3. Judge .400

9. Nimmo .380

12. Bogey .374

16. Reynolds .369 (Trade?)

19. Winker .367 (Trade?)

21. Correa .366

22. S Marte .365 (Trade?)

23. Brantley .365

25. J Abreu .365

26. Ohtani .364

34. Yelich .358 (Trade- hefty contract)

35. T Turner .358

40. Vogelbach .356

41. JD Davis .356

46. B Belt .355

47. J Bell .355

53. Cooper .352

58. Beni .348

63. Carpenter .346

65. JD Martinez .345

68. Conforto .344

71. Contreras .344

78. Segura .343 (Trade?)

 

[moonslav59]

Last offseason Matthew Boyd, who is two years younger than James Paxton, signed a one-year, $5.2 million contract with the San Francisco Giants, taking a pay cut after the Detroit Tigers non-tendered the lefthander coming off an injury-shortened 2021 season of a 3.89 ERA in 15 starts. The Giants knew Boyd would not be available on Opening Day and at the trade deadline traded an unused Boyd to the Seattle Mariners, who deployed Boyd as a reliever.

 

 

Yes, the guy with a 96 ERA+ since 2017. He got paid more than Paxton's $4M option.

 

That's why I listed him as a comp.

[moonslav59]

I wonder, if Heyman is right about there still being $100M gap between the Sox offer to Devers and what he wants, if we look to trade him.

 

I do think $300M/10 is too steep, but maybe he’d take $270/12. I’m not sure the Sox offer that, either.

[moonslav59]

The Tigers hired the Senior Director of Amateur Scouting from the Rays to be their assistant GM. If he was a key to their success on the farm, maybe the Sox missed an opportunity, here.

[Hugh2]

Devers gets 300/10 in the open market. Bogaerts probably gets somewhere around 200/7. Sox got to meet at least one of those asking prices. I think there's more wiggle room to move down with Bogaerts number than Devers. He's a few years older and there are other options out there.

[Hugh2]

Regardless, Sox are probably going to have to spend 25-30 million up the middle on someone this offseason.

[Bellhorn04]

I'd be surprised, but I'd also feel like he'd be a promising player for only $4M. We paid $10M for Richards, 2 years ago and $6M for Paxton, last year (with the $4M option counting on the 2022 tax line.)

 

The $4M doesn't count toward 2022, because it's an option for 2023. It would count toward 2023.

[moonslav59]

Devers gets 300/10 in the open market. Bogaerts probably gets somewhere around 200/7. Sox got to meet at least one of those asking prices. I think there's more wiggle room to move down with Bogaerts number than Devers. He's a few years older and there are other options out there.

 

If I had to choose between those two offers, I'd go with Devers. Maybe he takes $300M/12 to lessen the AAV, and who knows, maybe he'll be a useful DH years 9-12.

 

There is a top limit, however, and maybe both of those numbers are too much. Spending $500M on both seems impossible, and unwise.

 

One might get this for $500M:

 

$140M/6 Nimmo

$140M/6 Swanson

$70M/4 Diaz

$60M/4 Contreras

$30M/3 Eovaldi

$30M/4 Wacha

$30M/4 Fulmer

[moonslav59]

The $4M doesn't count toward 2022, because it's an option for 2023. It would count toward 2023.

 

I thought the 2022 tax line number for Paxton was $10M, according to cots. That's $6M for 2022 plus the $4M option in 2023, right?

 

Is cots wrong, again?

 

If not, why are we charged that $4M twice?

[moonslav59]

Regardless, Sox are probably going to have to spend 25-30 million up the middle on someone this offseason.

 

If signing Swanson over Bogey helps us get Nimmo or two better RP'ers, maybe it's worth the downgrade. (It's possible Swanson outplays Bogey, going forward, but I would not bet on that.)

 

Haven't heard much on Anderson from the CWS as a less expensive option.

[Bellhorn04]

I thought the 2022 tax line number for Paxton was $10M, according to cots. That's $6M for 2022 plus the $4M option in 2023, right?

 

Is cots wrong, again?

 

If not, why are we charged that $4M twice?

 

Cots is wrong, yes. Numerous sources reported Paxton's tax cost for 2022 is $5.8 million.

 

https://bosoxinjection.com/2022/08/26/red-sox-face-complicated-decision-with-james-paxtons-contract-option/

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/james-paxton/11828/stats?position=P

Edited October 28, 2022 by Bellhorn04

[harmony]

If signing Swanson over Bogey helps us get Nimmo or two better RP'ers, maybe it's worth the downgrade. (It's possible Swanson outplays Bogey, going forward, but I would not bet on that.)

 

Haven't heard much on Anderson from the CWS as a less expensive option.

Debates over Tim Anderson's value can be exhausting:

 

https://www.marinertalk.com/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=7435&start=30#p213989

[jad]

Speaking of the REd Sox ... oh screw it. Who cares? Listen to this instead.

 

[moonslav59]

Cots is wrong, yes. Numerous sources reported Paxton's tax cost for 2022 is $5.8 million.

 

https://bosoxinjection.com/2022/08/26/red-sox-face-complicated-decision-with-james-paxtons-contract-option/

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/james-paxton/11828/stats?position=P

 

It's not a buyout guarantee, so it makes sense.

[moonslav59]

Speaking of the REd Sox ... oh screw it. Who cares? Listen to this instead.

 

 

What a performer!

[redsoxrules]

Hard pass on Devers on 300M contract. He ain't no Machado or Arenado. He's a one dimensional player. He hits and that's it. At least with Machado and Arenado you're getting stellar defense on top of it. I seriously don't get these crazy offers for Devers. Never even been in talks for MVP either. I'm sorry but to throw over 300 Mil contract you best be MVP caliber. He wasn't even the Sox best player last year.

 

Let him play this year out and see what he does. He hasn't impressed me that much to grant a 300 mil contract. He was complete s*** towards the end of the season. And stop the non sense he was hurt. He was playing so couldn't of been that hurt. In 5 years his WAR is 15. Not something that screams 300 million.

[moonslav59]

Hard pass on Devers on 300M contract. He ain't no Machado or Arenado. He's a one dimensional player. He hits and that's it. At least with Machado and Arenado you're getting stellar defense on top of it. I seriously don't get these crazy offers for Devers. Never even been in talks for MVP either. I'm sorry but to throw over 300 Mil contract you best be MVP caliber. He wasn't even the Sox best player last year.

 

Let him play this year out and see what he does. He hasn't impressed me that much to grant a 300 mil contract. He was complete s*** towards the end of the season. And stop the non sense he was hurt. He was playing so couldn't of been that hurt. In 5 years his WAR is 15. Not something that screams 300 million.

 

Apparently, he's asking for $300M. That doesn't mean he expects it or won't take less.

 

His D has improved, but it's not a sure thing it will stay improved.

[Behindenemylines]

The 2022-2023 off season is on pause until the decision is made on Bogey. I would go the route of less years more dollars per. You figure Mayer is three years away. Let's say four years at a higher average per year. If they give him more years then you have to get him to agree to a position change in the back end of the contract. The most i would go is six years. If an extension is not made in the first couple of weeks after the end of the Series then he is not coming back and then plan B starts. Until then it's hard to predict.

[notin]

The 2022-2023 off season is on pause until the decision is made on Bogey. I would go the route of less years more dollars per. You figure Mayer is three years away. Let's say four years at a higher average per year. If they give him more years then you have to get him to agree to a position change in the back end of the contract. The most i would go is six years. If an extension is not made in the first couple of weeks after the end of the Series then he is not coming back and then plan B starts. Until then it's hard to predict.

 

You can make that offer (well, not you) but I’d be surprised if he goes for it. Years are important to a player, too…

[moonslav59]

The 2022-2023 off season is on pause until the decision is made on Bogey. I would go the route of less years more dollars per. You figure Mayer is three years away. Let's say four years at a higher average per year. If they give him more years then you have to get him to agree to a position change in the back end of the contract. The most i would go is six years. If an extension is not made in the first couple of weeks after the end of the Series then he is not coming back and then plan B starts. Until then it's hard to predict.

 

I think Bogey would be okay with a position change in 2-3 years, when Mayer arrives, but then we'd be paying big SS money to an aging 3Bman, 2Bman or LF'er.

 

We may sign the best SS on the market willing to take a 2-3 year deal. Who might that be, and why would a top SS do that?

[Nick]

I will repeat myself.....assuming we're building a World Series contender, based on years of control

 

SP 1 Bello

 

RP Houck

RP Whitlock

 

Possibly, Schreiber, Crawford

 

1B Casas

2B Story

 

That's it.... we don't need an All-Star at each position but we need more 'high ceiling' guys.

 

Devers is next up.