A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[moonslav59]

B efore any additions are made, here is a list of who may see some playing time at each position:

 

C: McGuire, Wong, C Hamilton, RHern (Cottam)

 

1B: Casas, Hosmer, Dalbec, Cordero, EValdez (Kavadas)

 

2B: Story, Arroyo, EValdez, Dalbec (Rafaela/Koss/D Hamilton)

 

SS: Arroyo, Kike, Story, Downs (Rafaela/Lugo)

 

3B: Devers, Dalbec, Arroyo, Downs (Koss)

 

LF: Verdugo, Cordero, Duran, Refsnyder (Granberg)

 

CF: Kike, Verdugo, Refsnyder, Cordero, Duran (Rafaela)

 

RF: Refsnyder, Verdugo, Cordero, Duran (Abreu)

 

DH: Hosmer, Dalbec, Arroyo, EValdez, Duran, Wong (Castellenos/Kavadas)

 

SP: Sale, Bello, Pivetta, Whitlock, Houck, Crawford, Winckowski, Seabold

Mata, Walter, Murphy, TWard, Santos (Drohan)

 

RP: Whitlock, Houck, Schreiber, Barnes, Kelly, Crawford, Winckowski, Brasier, Taylor, Danish, Seabold

German, McGee, Reed, Politi, Ort, Feltman, Thompson, Wallace (Shugart, R Fernandez, J Webb)

Mata, Walter, Murphy, TWard, Santos (Drohan)

[notin]

B efore any additions are made, here is a list of who may see some playing time at each position:

 

C: McGuire, Wong, C Hamilton, RHern (Cottam)

 

1B: Casas, Hosmer, Dalbec, Cordero, EValdez (Kavadas)

 

2B: Story, Arroyo, EValdez, Dalbec (Rafaela/Koss/D Hamilton)

 

SS: Arroyo, Kike, Story, Downs (Rafaela/Lugo)

 

3B: Devers, Dalbec, Arroyo, Downs (Koss)

 

LF: Verdugo, Cordero, Duran, Refsnyder (Granberg)

 

CF: Kike, Verdugo, Refsnyder, Cordero, Duran (Rafaela)

 

RF: Refsnyder, Verdugo, Cordero, Duran (Abreu)

 

DH: Hosmer, Dalbec, Arroyo, EValdez, Duran, Wong (Castellenos/Kavadas)

 

SP: Sale, Bello, Pivetta, Whitlock, Houck, Crawford, Winckowski, Seabold

Mata, Walter, Murphy, TWard, Santos (Drohan)

 

RP: Whitlock, Houck, Schreiber, Barnes, Kelly, Crawford, Winckowski, Brasier, Taylor, Danish, Seabold

German, McGee, Reed, Politi, Ort, Feltman, Thompson, Wallace (Shugart, R Fernandez, J Webb)

Mata, Walter, Murphy, TWard, Santos (Drohan)

 

 

My prospect sleeper next year is Jacob Wallace. I think he can crack the bullpen at some point next season…

[moonslav59]

My prospect sleeper next year is Jacob Wallace. I think he can crack the bullpen at some point next season…

 

Mine are EValdez, who may not be a "sleeper" and TWard.

[notin]

Mine are EValdez, who may not be a "sleeper" and TWard.

 

I put both of them on the 2023 MLB Debut List, along with Mata and Walter…

[moonslav59]

I put both of them on the 2023 MLB Debut List, along with Mata and Walter…

 

SP has Ward for 2024.

[notin]

SP has Ward for 2024.

 

Well they’re wrong.

 

also Wilyer Abreu might debut if needed…

[moonslav59]

Well they’re wrong.

 

also Wilyer Abreu might debut if needed…

 

I put Abreu on my 2023 list but we will try Rafaela first, IMO.

[notin]

I put Abreu on my 2023 list but we will try Rafaela first, IMO.

 

Agreed.

 

Tell SP we’ve reached a decision..

[moonslav59]

Agreed.

 

Tell SP we’ve reached a decision..

 

Does Duran get the first OF look off the farm?

 

If yes, how long is his leash?

[moonslav59]

Looking at just FA options, here is a selected list of possibilities:

 

SP: deGrom, Rodon, Verlander

Bassitt, Kershaw, Eovaldi, Wacha, Senga, Taillon, Manaea, Quintana, TAnderson, Syndergaard

Kluber, Miley, Stripling, Aflin, RHill

 

RP: Diaz, Kimbrel, Jansen, Rogers, Montero, Fulmer

Chafin, C Martin, Green

 

SS T Turner 29, Correa 28, Bogey 30, Swanson 29, T Anderson 30

Andrus 34, Iggy 32, Simmons 33, Didi 33

 

2B (Story to SS?): Wong 32

Segura 33, A Frazier 30

 

RF: Judge 31, Nimmo 30 (CF), Haniger 32, Gallo 29

Myers 32, Naquin 32, Fowler 36

 

LF/DH (Dugo to RF?): Beni 28, Brantley 36 , Duval 33, Pollock 35

McCutchen 36, Mancini 31, Pederson 30, Grossman 33., Profar 30, Pham 35

 

1B/DH: Rizzo 32, Abreu 36, JBell 30, Belt 35, Vogelbach 30

Gurriel 39, Aguilar 33, CSantana 37

DH only: JD 35, Crus 41, Carpenter 37

 

C: Contreras 31

Vazquez 31, Narvaez 32, Zunino 32

[notin]

Does Duran get the first OF look off the farm?

 

If yes, how long is his leash?

 

If he does, I prefer it be with another team.

 

I’m hoping he gets dealt, but not sure why anyone would want him. You’d think his speed would be a selling point - and maybe it is - but I doubt it’s enough to entice anyone to deal anything worthwhile for him.

 

I know the Sox won’t just DFA him, but Duran is looking like a waste of a 40 man roster spot. Is he really worth keeping over DFA-likely Franchy Cordero?

[moonslav59]

If he does, I prefer it be with another team.

 

I’m hoping he gets dealt, but not sure why anyone would want him. You’d think his speed would be a selling point - and maybe it is - but I doubt it’s enough to entice anyone to deal anything worthwhile for him.

 

I know the Sox won’t just DFA him, but Duran is looking like a waste of a 40 man roster spot. Is he really worth keeping over DFA-likely Franchy Cordero?

 

Maybe somebody sees a tweak for Duran and thinks they can "fix him."

 

I'd trade him for someone worth half his BTV value. Throw in Downs, although I have more hope in Downs than Duran.

 

It's easy to find some 2 or 3 for 1 deals that look good for us, but most teams aren't looking to add 2-3 bubble 40 man roster pieces to their bubble list.

 

[notin]

Maybe somebody sees a tweak for Duran and thinks they can "fix him."

 

I'd trade him for someone worth half his BTV value. Throw in Downs, although I have more hope in Downs than Duran.

 

It's easy to find some 2 or 3 for 1 deals that look good for us, but most teams aren't looking to add 2-3 bubble 40 man roster pieces to their bubble list.

 

 

Downs hasn’t hit, but he can field. Duran does neither.

 

Of Cordero, Downs and Duran, I think Duran is by far the worst overall player. I also for some reason think he’s the least likely to get DFAd.

 

I have to be wrong about that. Am I?

[moonslav59]

Downs hasn’t hit, but he can field. Duran does neither.

 

Of Cordero, Downs and Duran, I think Duran is by far the worst overall player. I also for some reason think he’s the least likely to get DFAd.

 

I have to be wrong about that. Am I?

 

I think his ability to hit well in the minors and his speed is enough for Bloom & Co, to think he has more upside than Downs & Cordero. I'd add Chang and C Hamilton to the list of non pitchers above Duran on the DFA list.

 

My ordered DFA list:

 

1. DHern

2. Chang

3. J Reed

4. E McGee Below this line, probably have some trade value

5. Dannish

6. Duran

7. Cordero

8. Brasier

9. Hosmer

10. Ort

11. Seabold

12. Downs

13. RHern

 

 

[moonslav59]

I think his ability to hit well in the minors and his speed is enough for Bloom & Co, to think he has more upside than Downs & Cordero. I'd add Chang and C Hamilton to the list of non pitchers above Duran on the DFA list.

 

My ordered DFA list:

 

1. DHern

2. Chang

3. J Reed

4. E McGee Below this line, probably have some trade value

5. Dannish

6. Duran

7. Cordero

8. Brasier

9. Hosmer

10. Ort

11. Seabold

12. Downs

13. RHern

 

The Sox probably have Duran 10th to 13th, maybe Brasier, too.

[harmony]

If he does, I prefer it be with another team.

 

I’m hoping he gets dealt, but not sure why anyone would want him. You’d think his speed would be a selling point - and maybe it is - but I doubt it’s enough to entice anyone to deal anything worthwhile for him.

 

I know the Sox won’t just DFA him, but Duran is looking like a waste of a 40 man roster spot. Is he really worth keeping over DFA-likely Franchy Cordero?

But, but, but ...

 

Baseball Trade Values approved a trade of five years of 26-year-old Jarren Duran, who posted a negative 0.4 fWAR this year, and four years of 27-year-old Bobby Dalbec, who posted a negative 0.1 fWAR this season, to Seattle for six years of 23-year-old righthander Emerson Hancock, the No. 6 pick in the 2020 draft:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-105381/

 

Hancock dropped from Top 100 prospect lists this year despite striking out the side in his one-inning appearance at the Futures Game:

 

MLB Gameday: AL Futures 6, NL Futures 4 Final Score (07/16/2022) | MLB.com

WWW.MLB.COM

---

Follow MLB results with FREE box scores, pitch-by-pitch strikezone info, and Statcast data for AL Futures vs. NL Futures at Dodger Stadium

 

This year Hancock posted an ERA of 3.75 in 21 starts at Double A Arkansas and is expected to make his MLB debut in 2023:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=hancoc000eme

 

Needless to say, Seattle isn't making that trade for disappointing post-prospects who play positions where the Mariners this year fielded All Stars who remain under team control for years.

Edited October 30, 2022 by harmony

[notin]

But, but, but ...

 

Baseball Trade Values approved a trade of five years of 26-year-old Jarren Duran, who posted a negative 0.4 fWAR this year, and four years of 27-year-old Bobby Dalbec, who posted a negative 0.1 fWAR this season, to Seattle for six years of 23-year-old righthander Emerson Hancock, the No. 6 pick in the 2020 draft:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-105381/

 

Hancock dropped from Top 100 prospect lists this year despite striking out the side in his one-inning appearance at the Futures Game:

 

MLB Gameday: AL Futures 6, NL Futures 4 Final Score (07/16/2022) | MLB.com

WWW.MLB.COM

---

Follow MLB results with FREE box scores, pitch-by-pitch strikezone info, and Statcast data for AL Futures vs. NL Futures at Dodger Stadium

 

This year Hancock posted an ERA of 3.75 in 21 starts at Double A Arkansas and is expected to make his MLB debut in 2023:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=hancoc000eme

 

Needless to say, Seattle isn't making that trade for disappointing post-prospects who play positions where the Mariners this year fielded All Stars who remain under team control for years.

 

Not sure why you keep bringing that up.

 

BTV also approved dealing Devers to Seattle for a pair of 28yo middle relievers in Penn Murfee and Erik Swanson. But no way Boston would do that for multiple reasons.

 

BTV also approved Duran to the outfield-needy White Sox straight up for one year of RHRP Reynaldo Lopez. I’d do it if I was the Red Sox. I’m hesitant (but not immediately out. Maybe.) if I’m the White Sox…

Edited October 31, 2022 by notin

[moonslav59]

Not sure why you keep bringing that up.

 

 

Maybe, he's mocking all the bogus Sox fan trade suggestions.

[mvp 78]

My prospect sleeper next year is Jacob Wallace. I think he can crack the bullpen at some point next season…

 

I hope he's cracking it due to performance and not due to Sox ineptitude this offseason.

[mvp 78]

Well they’re wrong.

 

also Wilyer Abreu might debut if needed…

 

Maybe as a Rule 5 pick for another org.

[mvp 78]

If he does, I prefer it be with another team.

 

I’m hoping he gets dealt, but not sure why anyone would want him. You’d think his speed would be a selling point - and maybe it is - but I doubt it’s enough to entice anyone to deal anything worthwhile for him.

 

I know the Sox won’t just DFA him, but Duran is looking like a waste of a 40 man roster spot. Is he really worth keeping over DFA-likely Franchy Cordero?

 

Cordero has been DFA'd numerous times and has never been claimed. I would just keep doing it.

[mvp 78]

I think his ability to hit well in the minors and his speed is enough for Bloom & Co, to think he has more upside than Downs & Cordero. I'd add Chang and C Hamilton to the list of non pitchers above Duran on the DFA list.

 

My ordered DFA list:

 

1. DHern

2. Chang

3. J Reed

4. E McGee Below this line, probably have some trade value

5. Dannish

6. Duran

7. Cordero

8. Brasier

9. Hosmer

10. Ort

11. Seabold

12. Downs

13. RHern

 

 

 

Cordero has NO trade value. As I said above, he's been DFA's numerous times and has yet to be claimed. If someone wanted him, they could have grabbed him for free. Why trade for him? I think Darwinzon has more trade value than Danish, Cordero and maybe Ort.

 

Of the list, Hosmer is the least likely to be DFA'd unless they bring in another 1b somehow.

[notin]

Cordero has NO trade value. As I said above, he's been DFA's numerous times and has yet to be claimed. If someone wanted him, they could have grabbed him for free. Why trade for him? I think Darwinzon has more trade value than Danish, Cordero and maybe Ort.

 

Of the list, Hosmer is the least likely to be DFA'd unless they bring in another 1b somehow.

 

 

I would place Hosmer as very high on the DFA list.

 

Casas was impressive and stands a good chance at the very least to not be the weakest link in the lineup. And if he is even league averages with some growing pains, where does Hosmer fit in.

 

Hosmer himself has some trade value because San Diego can pay the overwhelming bulk of his salary. But his NTC could be an obstacle in moving him. We only know he won’t accept a deal to a rebuilding team, but he might have other preferences that make finding a trade partner difficult. If Casas has first, and Dalbec is still around, what is Hosmer’s role? Mediocre DH? Or third string 1b with no other positions? If it’s the latter, isn’t he just a waste of a 40 man roster spot?

[notin]

Cordero has NO trade value. As I said above, he's been DFA's numerous times and has yet to be claimed. If someone wanted him, they could have grabbed him for free. Why trade for him? I think Darwinzon has more trade value than Danish, Cordero and maybe Ort.

 

Of the list, Hosmer is the least likely to be DFA'd unless they bring in another 1b somehow.

 

But I agree the Sox are pretty likely to DFA Cordero, unless he is the 4th outfielder. Not sure if he is better overall than Duran, however.

 

And Cordero at least has some (albeit unimpressive) experience at 1b. Someone like Duran or Hosmer doesn’t even have that much versatility.

 

Ort is useless. He is the first man DFAd…

[Old Red]

I would place Hosmer as very high on the DFA list.

 

Casas was impressive and stands a good chance at the very least to not be the weakest link in the lineup. And if he is even league averages with some growing pains, where does Hosmer fit in.

 

Hosmer himself has some trade value because San Diego can pay the overwhelming bulk of his salary. But his NTC could be an obstacle in moving him. We only know he won’t accept a deal to a rebuilding team, but he might have other preferences that make finding a trade partner difficult. If Casas has first, and Dalbec is still around, what is Hosmer’s role? Mediocre DH? Or third string 1b with no other positions? If it’s the latter, isn’t he just a waste of a 40 man roster spot?

 

Casas shows promise, but I wouldn’t exactly call his limited time as impressive, so I would keep Hosmer around to see how the season starts out.

[Bellhorn04]

I would place Hosmer as very high on the DFA list.

 

Casas was impressive and stands a good chance at the very least to not be the weakest link in the lineup. And if he is even league averages with some growing pains, where does Hosmer fit in.

 

Hosmer himself has some trade value because San Diego can pay the overwhelming bulk of his salary. But his NTC could be an obstacle in moving him. We only know he won’t accept a deal to a rebuilding team, but he might have other preferences that make finding a trade partner difficult. If Casas has first, and Dalbec is still around, what is Hosmer’s role? Mediocre DH? Or third string 1b with no other positions? If it’s the latter, isn’t he just a waste of a 40 man roster spot?

 

Strictly from a cost-benefit standpoint, starting 2023 with a DH platoon of Hosmer & Dalbec doesn't seem like the worst thing. They can also back up Casas of course.

 

And spend the money elsewhere.

[mvp 78]

But I agree the Sox are pretty likely to DFA Cordero, unless he is the 4th outfielder. Not sure if he is better overall than Duran, however.

 

And Cordero at least has some (albeit unimpressive) experience at 1b. Someone like Duran or Hosmer doesn’t even have that much versatility.

 

Ort is useless. He is the first man DFAd…

 

Cordero 1b:

-4 DRS

-19.2 UZR/150

-8 OAA

 

Calling Cordero "versatile" is a stretch greater than what he can do when Raffy is throwing the ball over to him.

[mvp 78]

Strictly from a cost-benefit standpoint, starting 2023 with a DH platoon of Hosmer & Dalbec doesn't seem like the worst thing. They can also back up Casas of course.

 

And spend the money elsewhere.

 

To me, Hosmer is more likely to provide value than Ronaldo Hernandez, Jeter Downs or Yu Chang. I don't see why they'd DFA him prior to Spring Training. He's cheap and decent injury insurance.

[moonslav59]

Cordero has NO trade value. As I said above, he's been DFA's numerous times and has yet to be claimed. If someone wanted him, they could have grabbed him for free. Why trade for him? I think Darwinzon has more trade value than Danish, Cordero and maybe Ort.

 

Of the list, Hosmer is the least likely to be DFA'd unless they bring in another 1b somehow.

 

Fair points.

 

Out OF is so weak and shallow, I put Cordero lower, but if we sign on OF’er, he’d shot to near the top.

 

I’m done with DHern. I’m

[notin]

Cordero 1b:

-4 DRS

-19.2 UZR/150

-8 OAA

 

Calling Cordero "versatile" is a stretch greater than what he can do when Raffy is throwing the ball over to him.

 

 

Don’t forget I’m calling him versatile in comparison to Hosmer, who is weak at 1b and never played anywhere else, and Duran, who may not be able to play any defensive position adequately. It was not a statement made in a vacuum…