A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[Old Red]

Pham's option is $6M with a $1.5 buyout, so we pay either $1.5 for him to leave or an additional $4.5M for him to play for us.

 

He could be our 4th OF'er/Platoon DH, but if we add a RF'er, I'd prefer Refsnyder as our 5th OF'er.

 

I don't think the 26 man roster has room for 2 back-up OF'ers slash RH'd hitting DHs. As much as it pains me to say it, Dalbec is probably a better bet as a platoon DH than either Pham or maybe Ref. I'm not all that happy with Hosmer as the LH'd DH platoon and back up 1Bman, but we may have to settle on going light at a couple positions.

New details that came out today said the mutual option on Pham is for $12M, and not $6M.

[moonslav59]

New details that came out today said the mutual option on Pham is for $12M, and not $6M.

 

Then, it's an easy no.

 

What's the buyout?

[jacksonianmarch]

The problem is, if you spend all your budget on Judge, you won't spend on the depth you need.

 

Same with the Sox: if we spend on Bogey and Devers, there will not be enough to fill other high need areas, enough to win, unless and until we start getting more and better farm infusions. We did see an uptick, this year with Casas and Bello, and it looks like more are coming in 2023 and 2024, but will or can it be enough?

 

The Yanks depth is in the minors. Top flight prospects with close proximity. Cannot rely on them yet as regulars, but definitely factor into the conversation as backups for now. Bringing back Judge essentially keeps the band together while giving the Yanks time to groom this next generation. If Judge goes, then all bets are off and you’ve got to upgrade multiple spots to make up for his loss

[moonslav59]

The Yanks depth is in the minors. Top flight prospects with close proximity. Cannot rely on them yet as regulars, but definitely factor into the conversation as backups for now. Bringing back Judge essentially keeps the band together while giving the Yanks time to groom this next generation. If Judge goes, then all bets are off and you’ve got to upgrade multiple spots to make up for his loss

 

Factor into the conversation is not usually championship strategy.

[mvp 78]

We're just so far away, in my opinion from winning it all that I question extending Xander. If signing Xander and then our only other choice is to wait on the farm, then I'm not very optimistic about our future. If we don't have the issue of extending Devers, then I'd say go for it. I'm more worried about extending number of years than the money.

 

Why are the Sox "so far away" from a WS title? Didn't they get to the ALCS last year? Don't they have an owner that can outspend the majority of teams?

[mvp 78]

The 34-year-old Pham hasn’t had the best season (.700 OPS with Boston) and he plays only left field, decreasing Boston’s roster flexibility. But he has power, hits lefties especially well and the Red Sox will need a corner outfielder next year if the mutual option isn’t exercised. Pham has played a respectable left field for Boston and leads the majors with a career-high 15 outfield assists. Eight of those assists have come since being traded to Boston.

 

It might be an overpay for Boston but that’s something a big-market team should be willing to do short-term to keep a player if it feels he’s a fit.

 

Would the Rays do this? All the sudden we're paying Kike $10M, Pham $12M, what mediocre player is next?

 

Paying Pham $12M is dumb as hell.

[mvp 78]

New details that came out today said the mutual option on Pham is for $12M, and not $6M.

 

Mutual options are very rarely picked up. No reason the Sox grab that one.

[notin]

Then, it's an easy no.

 

What's the buyout?

 

$1.5mill

[notin]

Mutual options are very rarely picked up. No reason the Sox grab that one.

 

Exactly.

 

Teams only exercise options if the player is expected to be a bargain. Players only exercise player options if they know they can’t do better in free agency. And these two situations never coincide…

[notin]

Paying Pham $12M is dumb as hell.

 

You could get three Pham’s for that price and it would still be an overpay…

[moonslav59]

Why are the Sox "so far away" from a WS title? Didn't they get to the ALCS last year? Don't they have an owner that can outspend the majority of teams?

 

No, they don't.

 

They HAD an owner that did outspend 80-90% of the teams.

 

From 2019 until march, 2022, the Sox spending vs lost contracts has not been like years past.

[notin]

No, they don't.

 

They HAD an owner that did outspend 80-90% of the teams.

 

From 2019 until march, 2022, the Sox spending vs lost contracts has not been like years past.

 

He said “can” outspend, not “will outspend” or “did outspend”…

[notin]

No, they don't.

 

They HAD an owner that did outspend 80-90% of the teams.

 

From 2019 until march, 2022, the Sox spending vs lost contracts has not been like years past.

 

 

Now if Bogaerts opts out, the Sox have something like $80mill committed for 2023, and nothing says “trying to win” more than just spending.

 

The big problem for the Sox is - spending on who? Sure they could add a closer, but how many last place teams were one closer away from first place? (Hint:None. Ever.)

 

They have some obvious needs in the rotation, but is this the free agent class to fill them? Seems like the best pitchers are the oft-injured type who are more likely to create a void in the rotation than they are too fill one.

 

The Sox could grab an outfielder, but, after Judge there isn’t much in the way of headline grabbers. And Judge will never be an option. (I stand by the unsexy Brandon Nimmo as the Sox biggest free agent need.)

 

They could spend on Devers, but they had Devers last year. How does making Devers financial future more secure make this team better?

 

Shortstop, I could see. There are a few options available who are team changers, like Turner and Correa. Certainly Bogaerts is an option albeit he’s the status quo. James Dansby Swanson is a good all around shortstop, but he really isn’t the elite game-changing, ticket-selling, franchise-altering player the Sox should be looking at for PR purposes. If he replaces Bogaerts, he’s a good player that’s tough to sell, like Jose Offerman as a replacement for Mo Vaughn.

[moonslav59]

He said “can” outspend, not “will outspend” or “did outspend”…

 

Okay, that may be true, but what does it matter, if he doesn't?

 

Are we going to call for a new owner as essential to our further success? (To me, that sounds absurd.)

[moonslav59]

Now if Bogaerts opts out, the Sox have something like $80mill committed for 2023, and nothing says “trying to win” more than just spending.

 

The big problem for the Sox is - spending on who? Sure they could add a closer, but how many last place teams were one closer away from first place? (Hint:None. Ever.)

 

They have some obvious needs in the rotation, but is this the free agent class to fill them? Seems like the best pitchers are the oft-injured type who are more likely to create a void in the rotation than they are too fill one.

 

The Sox could grab an outfielder, but, after Judge there isn’t much in the way of headline grabbers. And Judge will never be an option. (I stand by the unsexy Brandon Nimmo as the Sox biggest free agent need.)

 

They could spend on Devers, but they had Devers last year. How does making Devers financial future more secure make this team better?

 

Shortstop, I could see. There are a few options available who are team changers, like Turner and Correa. Certainly Bogaerts is an option albeit he’s the status quo. James Dansby Swanson is a good all around shortstop, but he really isn’t the elite game-changing, ticket-selling, franchise-altering player the Sox should be looking at for PR purposes. If he replaces Bogaerts, he’s a good player that’s tough to sell, like Jose Offerman as a replacement for Mo Vaughn.

 

I would not compare Swanson to Offerman. Swanson is almost top 10 in fWAR by everyday players at 6.2.

 

One can argue that's a fluke as he was at 3.4. last year and barely over 2 the previous 2 seasons, including the shortened 2020 season. where his 2.2 might have projected to 5.7.

 

Offerman was at 2.1, 1.4 and thyen 4.6 before his signing with the Sox.

 

I'd be happy with Nimmo and Swanson, but I know many would not be. I think signing those two would allow us to spend more on pitching than going Bogey and Nimmo or Judge and Swanson/Anderson.

 

I still think we'd need to trade for an ace, sign Swanson & Nimmo and spend the rest on pitching to come close to being a highly competitive team in 2023.

 

That may be too much to ask.

[mvp 78]

He said “can” outspend, not “will outspend” or “did outspend”…

 

It's a Monday morning and moon spent the weekend fighting with Old Red. He just needs some fresh air.

[mvp 78]

Okay, that may be true, but what does it matter, if he doesn't?

 

Are we going to call for a new owner as essential to our further success? (To me, that sounds absurd.)

 

The definition of a strawman argument. WTH?

 

Henry is a benefit to this team. He has opened his checkbook in the past and he'll probably do it again at some point.

[Bellhorn04]

The definition of a strawman argument. WTH?

 

Henry is a benefit to this team. He has opened his checkbook in the past and he'll probably do it again at some point.

 

"Opening the checkbook" is a relative term. Open it like pay a bit of tax, or open it like Dodgers and Mets owners?

[Old Red]

It's a Monday morning and moon spent the weekend fighting with Old Red. He just needs some fresh air.

 

No punches were landed, or thrown, and just a verbal disagreement.

[moonslav59]

No punches were landed, or thrown, and just a verbal disagreement.

 

I think he's trying to get us fighting.

[mvp 78]

"Opening the checkbook" is a relative term. Open it like pay a bit of tax, or open it like Dodgers and Mets owners?

 

Somewhere in between a little and the Dodgers/Mets?

[mvp 78]

I think he's trying to get us fighting.

 

I'd rather you leave each other alone.

[notin]

I think he's trying to get us fighting.

 

He does own the forum pay-per-view rights…

[Red Foreman]

After the Betts trade I have no faith that Bloom will get value for Devers.

[moonslav59]

After the Betts trade I have no faith that Bloom will get value for Devers.

 

...and DD, Ben or Theo would?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

After the Betts trade I have no faith that Bloom will get value for Devers.

 

He'll get value, but don't look for equal value.Maybe that's because, in this century, Devers is unequaled in...

 

XBH in 700 at bats or less through age 25

 

1 Rafael Devers 333

2 Mookie Betts 320

3 Grady Sizemore 314

4 Prince Fielder 307

5 Hanley Ramírez 295

[moonslav59]

He'll get value, but don't look for equal value.Maybe that's because, in this century, Devers is unequaled in...

 

XBH in 700 at bats or less through age 25

 

1 Rafael Devers 333

2 Mookie Betts 320

3 Grady Sizemore 314

4 Prince Fielder 307

5 Hanley Ramírez 295

 

How do you get equal value when you trade one year of team control?

 

The only way that happens is if it is a trade for another player with 1 year of control. Then, you'd expect equal value, unless one player is a malcontent demanding a trade, or something.

 

When we traded Betts, we got 5 years of Dugo and maybe 6 years of Wong and Downs. How do you weight the value of a trade like that?

 

Total WAR of the 3 players over maybe 17 years combined vs 1 year of Betts? That doesn't seem right, but maybe it is. Nobody would thin trading 1 year of a 9 WAR guy for 9 one WAR guys would be a good idea, but it's hard to say what "getting value" means, anymore.

 

It seems like teams aren't giving up several top prospects for rentals or 1 year players, like they used to do. GMs have to settle for the best offer, if they are backed into a corner and forced to deal a stud near the end of team control.

 

Now, a fair question might be, why wait until it's desperation time to make a deal?

 

A floow-up question might be, "How would Sox Nation have reacted to us trading Bogey or Devers 2-3 years ago, for a better return than we'll get for Devers, now?"

[mvp 78]

He'll get value, but don't look for equal value.Maybe that's because, in this century, Devers is unequaled in...

 

XBH in 700 at bats or less through age 25

 

1 Rafael Devers 333

2 Mookie Betts 320

3 Grady Sizemore 314

4 Prince Fielder 307

5 Hanley Ramírez 295

 

4 Red Sox Legends.

[moonslav59]

He'll get value, but don't look for equal value.Maybe that's because, in this century, Devers is unequaled in...

 

XBH in 700 at bats or less through age 25

 

1 Rafael Devers 333

2 Mookie Betts 320

3 Grady Sizemore 314

4 Prince Fielder 307

5 Hanley Ramírez 295

 

Devers Forevers!

[notin]

After the Betts trade I have no faith that Bloom will get value for Devers.

 

Not the same situation.

 

Betts had a $27mill salary and required taking as much of David Price as possible. It was a straight up salary dump. Getting Verdugo was a coup in that scenario…