Time For the Hypo Trade Talks to Begin ?

[cp176]

I don't like them either. They further diminish the regular season and the pennant race. But they are the reality and teams will probably consider them when making a deadline move.

 

Kind of like everybody makes the honor roll in our feel good about yourself and never be held accountable for anything era.

[mvp 78]

No. Keep Bogaerts. Re-open negotiations. He might go for a 5 year $125 mill deal, which is really just a 2 year extension (albeit a pricey one at $65mill).

 

Deal Eovaldi, JD and Hill and/or Wacha. And any reliever not named Houck or Whitlock should be available. Schreiber should be expensive so if someone wants to pay up for him, it’s worth considering. The rest, especially Barnes and Diekman, just take whatever…

 

1 year extension? I think he has 4 years to go per sportrac? Regardless, I like that way of looking at it.

[Bellhorn04]

1 year extension? I think he has 4 years to go per sportrac? Regardless, I like that way of looking at it.

 

The 4th year, 2026, is subject to a vesting option based on plate appearances in 2025.

[moonslav59]

An even better comp for Sale's current contract might be Lackey.

 

At least with Lackey, they built in a contractual clause designed for an expected lost year to injury.

[moonslav59]

I'm all in on just signing Bogey/Devers and calling it a day.

 

If Henry keeps going on spending reductions every few years, can any GM build a strong enough supporting team, when you factor in 4 large and long deals: Devers, Bogey, Sale & Story, especially if Sale never gives us anything and Story underperforms to a significant degree?

 

(I'm not saying the answer is no, but it's an extremely hard thing to do.)

[oldtimer]

If Henry keeps going on spending reductions every few years, can any GM build a strong enough supporting team, when you factor in 4 large and long deals: Devers, Bogey, Sale & Story, especially if Sale never gives us anything and Story underperforms to a significant degree?

 

(I'm not saying the answer is no, but it's an extremely hard thing to do.)

 

I may be in the minority, but I do think we should offer Bogey a reasonable contract, such as 110/5. He might accept the security it represents. He is a good athlete, has been consistently providing above average WAR and has flexibility to play second or third when needed. He also would be a good designated hitter candidate when he needs a rest. Besides that he is a fan favorite, should be team captain and may act as an incentive for Devers to stay with the Sox, instead of a disincentive should we let Bogey walk. The way contracts have escalated we won't find a better player for the money.

 

I'm probably also in the minority as I would also offer a reasonable contract to Vazquez. He also can anchor our position but we should be out looking for a younger replacement. Right now I don't see that guy in the Sox system. The way the team is playing, we may be in a good draft position to get or either trade for prospect talent. I know Moon doesn't appreciate his defensive skills but he still is one of the better overall players on our roster.

 

I am all for trading JDM. he has earned the money we paid him but I can't see resigning him for even another two years. He probably has some value to a NL team in the pennant race. One good prospect would be the best we could hope for although his remaining salary might be hard to trade off.

 

Of our outfielders, Verdugo is my choice to keep. He may be quirky at times but at least he looks like a major league player at the plate. Duran's lack of defensive instinctiveness may not be fixable. He has shown improved plate discipline and possibly the light may yet go on. but perhaps we have a prospect who would offer us more.

[Maxbialystock]

I'm all in on just signing Bogey/Devers and calling it a day.

 

I will never be "all in" on signing anyone in this day and age when Juan Soto, age 23, just sneered at $440M as chump change.

 

Based on that, Devers is going to want $500M and Bogey probably $250M.

 

And this reminder one more time: this year's Sox have JDM, Devers, Bogey, and Story and they are getting beat like a drum in the AL East. Before you say, "but Devers and Story are on the IL," 2 points. First, injuries are part of baseball. Second, the Sox had everybody back in April-May and were getting stomped right and left.

 

Last year the Sox had Bogey (OPS .863), Kike (.786), Devers (.890), JDM (.867), Renfroe (.816), Dugo (.777), short-timer Iglesias (.915), short-timer Schwarber (.957), and even a viable Dalbec (.792).

 

This year it's pretty much Devers (.981--better than last year), Bogey (.841--down from last year), and JDM (.843--down from last year). And three good hitters are never enough.

[mvp 78]

If Henry keeps going on spending reductions every few years, can any GM build a strong enough supporting team, when you factor in 4 large and long deals: Devers, Bogey, Sale & Story, especially if Sale never gives us anything and Story underperforms to a significant degree?

 

(I'm not saying the answer is no, but it's an extremely hard thing to do.)

 

They were under last year.

 

They'd be under if not for Price's 16M which comes off this year.

 

Sale is done in 2025

 

Story is 23M through 2027 (unless Story opts out, unlikely) which kinda just replaces JD's contract as of 2023

 

Bogey is already on the books for 20M, giving him a 5M raise isn't a big deal

 

Just give Raffy his current money, plus Price's money, plus some of JBJ's money

[mvp 78]

I will never be "all in" on signing anyone in this day and age when Juan Soto, age 23, just sneered at $440M as chump change.

 

Based on that, Devers is going to want $500M and Bogey probably $250M.

 

Bogey isn't getting 250, Raffy isn't getting 500.

 

Soto is vastly better than Devers and younger too. He turned down a contract because the AAV was too low.

[notin]

They were under last year.

 

They'd be under if not for Price's 16M which comes off this year.

 

Sale is done in 2025

 

Story is 23M through 2027 (unless Story opts out, unlikely) which kinda just replaces JD's contract as of 2023

 

Bogey is already on the books for 20M, giving him a 5M raise isn't a big deal

 

Just give Raffy his current money, plus Price's money, plus some of JBJ's money

 

Can I get Eovaldi’s money? Heck I’ll settle for Rich Hill’s…

[jad]

I may be in the minority, but I do think we should offer Bogey a reasonable contract, such as 110/5. He might accept the security it represents. He is a good athlete, has been consistently providing above average WAR and has flexibility to play second or third when needed. He also would be a good designated hitter candidate when he needs a rest. Besides that he is a fan favorite, should be team captain and may act as an incentive for Devers to stay with the Sox, instead of a disincentive should we let Bogey walk. The way contracts have escalated we won't find a better player for the money.

 

I'm probably also in the minority as I would also offer a reasonable contract to Vazquez. He also can anchor our position but we should be out looking for a younger replacement. Right now I don't see that guy in the Sox system. The way the team is playing, we may be in a good draft position to get or either trade for prospect talent. I know Moon doesn't appreciate his defensive skills but he still is one of the better overall players on our roster.

 

I am all for trading JDM. he has earned the money we paid him but I can't see resigning him for even another two years. He probably has some value to a NL team in the pennant race. One good prospect would be the best we could hope for although his remaining salary might be hard to trade off.

 

Of our outfielders, Verdugo is my choice to keep. He may be quirky at times but at least he looks like a major league player at the plate. Duran's lack of defensive instinctiveness may not be fixable. He has shown improved plate discipline and possibly the light may yet go on. but perhaps we have a prospect who would offer us more.

 

It's not really a 'reasonable' offer if you know he will reject it and it's below what he will receive as a FA.

[moonslav59]

It's not really a 'reasonable' offer if you know he will reject it and it's below what he will receive as a FA.

 

$110/5 is close to insulting.

 

Story got more

[notin]

$110/5 is close to insulting.

 

Story got more

 

I’m thinking $125/5 but I think it will take $150/6.

 

It’s hard to say because Camp Bogaerts has not released any figures…

[moonslav59]

I’m thinking $125/5 but I think it will take $150/6.

 

It’s hard to say because Camp Bogaerts has not released any figures…

 

The only way he takes that is if it's the top offer.

 

He may pull a Correa and go short term, in hopes he busts out in 2023, and then gets a big contract, if that's the best long term option he gets.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

$110/5 is close to insulting.

 

Story got more

 

I find 7 HR's and 39 RBI close to insulting.

[moonslav59]

I find 7 HR's and 39 RBI close to insulting.

 

I'm not for paying Bogey what he will end up getting, and that was before 7-39.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Bogey isn't getting 250, Raffy isn't getting 500.

 

Soto is vastly better than Devers and younger too. He turned down a contract because the AAV was too low.

 

How is Soto 'vastly better' than Devers?

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

I'm not for paying Bogey what he will end up getting, and that was before 7-39.

 

I know, Moon. What I don't understand is this love affair with Bogey when it's obvious Devers is the 'vastly better' player.

[redsoxrules]

How is Soto 'vastly better' than Devers?

 

Check what Soto has done to his current age VS Devers at that age. Soto is an OBP machine

[harmony]

How is Soto 'vastly better' than Devers?

Heading into Sunday's games Juan Soto had posted 21.3 fWAR in 557 career games while Rafael Devers had posted 18.0 fWAR in 635 career games.

 

ZiPS projects Soto with 7.9 and 7.7 WAR over the next two seasons while projecting Devers with 4.5 and 4.6 WAR over the same period.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/ju...ts?position=OF

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/ra...ts?position=3B

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Heading into Sunday's games Juan Soto had posted 21.3 fWAR in 557 career games while Rafael Devers had posted 18.0 fWAR in 635 career games.

 

ZiPS projects Soto with 7.9 and 7.7 WAR over the next two seasons while projecting Devers with 4.5 and 4.6 WAR over the same period.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/ju...ts?position=OF

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/ra...ts?position=3B

 

You can play with your WAR, but I'd rather have Devers.

[redsoxrules]

You can play with your WAR, but I'd rather have Devers.

 

Based on what?

[illinoisredsox]

How is Soto 'vastly better' than Devers?

 

Soto as a player is better; Soto is also a punk who is very lucky he’s playing in this era, because his antics would have gotten himself face planted by the likes of Gibson or Pedro.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Based on what?

 

Based on my own personal opinion. They're like A-holes, everybody has one.

[moonslav59]

Based on my own personal opinion.

 

Opinions are fine, but can you enlighten us on what aspects of the game you think Devers is even equal to Soto on?

 

Age progressions: (Red= led league)

OBP

Age: Soto/Devers

19 .406/ Minors

20 .401/ .338

21 .490/ .298

22 .465/ .361

23 .401/ .310

24 TBD/ .352

25 TBD/ .379

 

SLG

19 .517/ Minors

20 .548/ .482

21 .695/ .433

22 .534/ .555

23 .484/ .483

24 TBD/ .538

25 TBD/.602

 

Old School: Career per 162 games

Soto

700 PAs

.291 34 103 (78 XBHs, 11 SBs, .965 OPS)

Devers

695 PAs

.285 34 108 (80 XBHs, 6 SB, .866 OPS)

 

It's not a big tilt in Soto's favor in some areas, but if he improves in ages 24-25, even his old school his numbers should eclipse Devers'.

[MADSTORK]

DD will deal!

Call Philly

What do they need?

 

Target P Abel C O’Hoppe

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Opinions are fine, but can you enlighten us on what aspects of the game you think Devers is even equal to Soto on?

 

Age progressions: (Red= led league)

OBP

Age: Soto/Devers

19 .406/ Minors

20 .401/ .338

21 .490/ .298

22 .465/ .361

23 .401/ .310

24 TBD/ .352

25 TBD/ .379

 

SLG

19 .517/ Minors

20 .548/ .482

21 .695/ .433

22 .534/ .555

23 .484/ .483

24 TBD/ .538

25 TBD/.602

 

Old School: Career per 162 games

Soto

700 PAs

.291 34 103 (78 XBHs, 11 SBs, .965 OPS)

Devers

695 PAs

.285 34 108 (80 XBHs, 6 SB, .866 OPS)

 

It's not a big tilt in Soto's favor in some areas, but if he improves in ages 24-25, even his old school his numbers should eclipse Devers'.

 

No doubt the edge in stats goes to Soto. But keep in mind that Devers' accomplishments have been achieved in the high pressure atmosphere of Boston, while Soto is playing in a whole different kind of environment.

Not saying Soto wouldn't be as highly successful in NY or Boston, but the point is we'll never know until that happens, if ever.

Edited July 28, 2022 by SPLENDIDSPLINTER

[Bellhorn04]

Opinions are fine, but can you enlighten us on what aspects of the game you think Devers is even equal to Soto on?

 

Age progressions: (Red= led league)

OBP

Age: Soto/Devers

19 .406/ Minors

20 .401/ .338

21 .490/ .298

22 .465/ .361

23 .401/ .310

24 TBD/ .352

25 TBD/ .379

 

SLG

19 .517/ Minors

20 .548/ .482

21 .695/ .433

22 .534/ .555

23 .484/ .483

24 TBD/ .538

25 TBD/.602

 

Old School: Career per 162 games

Soto

700 PAs

.291 34 103 (78 XBHs, 11 SBs, .965 OPS)

Devers

695 PAs

.285 34 108 (80 XBHs, 6 SB, .866 OPS)

 

It's not a big tilt in Soto's favor in some areas, but if he improves in ages 24-25, even his old school his numbers should eclipse Devers'.

 

Over 2020-2022, Devers's SLG has gone up markedly while Soto's has gone down markedly.

[mvp 78]

DD will deal!

Call Philly

What do they need?

 

Target P Abel C O’Hoppe

 

Per BTV:

 

Houck

Duran

Schreiber

[mvp 78]

Over 2020-2022, Devers's SLG has gone up markedly while Soto's has gone down markedly.

 

Soto xSLG 95th Percentile

Devers xSLG 97th Percentile

 

Soto isn't 100th Percentile anymore, but that's hard to do every year.

 

Devers also can't compete with Soto's xOBP:

2018 94

2019 98

2020 100

2021 100

2022 100