Path to relevance

[jacksonianmarch]

Everyone and their mother knows the sox have struggled this year. The funny thing is the reason for their struggles isnt their much maligned staff, it is the fact they're 26 in MLB in runs scored. The big guys are hitting in JD, Devers and Bogey, but the rest of their guys aren't, especially Verdugo and Kike. Eventually, they will hit a bit. Another issue the sox have faced is a tough schedule. They've only faced the Orioles 3 times and have now faced the Twins, White Sox, Angels, Yanks, Jays, Rays and Braves in the early going. They have the Rangers, who they should sweep today and tomorrow and then get to fly back home to face the Astros. Just a grueling stretch. But there is a light at the end of the tunnel

 

One, the top 6 teams in the AL have quite a dichotomy. The Yanks have one of their best starts ever and are currently 12 games up on the sox, but the sox don't need to catch them. The Jays currently hold the 6 spot in the AL and are only 4.5 games up on the sox.

 

And after the Astros series, things get quite considerably easier.

 

4 at home vs Mariners- harmony knows that his team isnt there yet and the sox find them at a good time

3 away vs White Sox- they still will be without Lynn and Jimenez

5 vs Orioles at home

2 vs Reds at home who are trying to lose

3 in Oakland for a team that is also trying to lose

 

That's 17 games right there where the sox should win at least 10, maybe 12 of them. By the end of that run on June 5th, you will see if the sox are good enough to invest in or will end up being sellers

[jacksonianmarch]

If the Sox take 2 vs Rangers, lose 2 of 3 from Astros and go 12-5 over this stretch, they’ll be at .500

[moonslav59]

We will likely wait until mid July to start considering being sellers or buyer or neither. It may become obvious before then, but not many big deals happen in June.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

We will likely wait until mid July to start considering being sellers or buyer or neither. It may become obvious before then, but not many big deals happen in June.

 

And we already know how painfully slow and deliberate Bloom is in greenlighting any transaction. If and when he's finally ready to deal, anything that happens will be in the last minute after all buyers are given a chance to make their last best offers.

 

If the Sox do clean house, it will take an entire sorority on the very afternoon of the wine and cheese party, just before the brothers show up to spike the punch bowl with grain alcohol.

[moonslav59]

And we already know how painfully slow and deliberate Bloom is in greenlighting any transaction. If and when he's finally ready to deal, anything that happens will be in the last minute after all buyers are given a chance to make their last best offers.

 

If the Sox do clean house, it will take an entire sorority on the very afternoon of the wine and cheese party, just before the brothers show up to spike the punch bowl with grain alcohol.

 

Good one.

[jad]

I don't get it!

[jacksonianmarch]

Sox lost one to Rangers I didn't expect but won the series vs the Astros. Since this post, they're 4-2, have leapfrogged Baltimore and gained a half game on Toronto for the last PO spot.

[mvp 78]

Everyone that continually calls jacko a troll should file this one in their pocket as a reminder to not click reply next time.

[notin]

Everyone that continually calls jacko a troll should file this one in their pocket as a reminder to not click reply next time.

 

I don’t think no he’s a troll, but I do think most of his proposals for what the Sox should do are quite often more beneficial to the Yankees than the Sox…

[moonslav59]

I don’t think no he’s a troll, but I do think most of his proposals for what the Sox should do are quite often more beneficial to the Yankees than the Sox…

 

I have no issues with jacko. I will say, it's fine to change your opinion as more evidence is gathered, but he does seem to flip and flop on Bloom quite a bit. When we are doing well, he loves and praises him, maybe even secretly dreams of him as the next Yankee GM, but he can suddenly turn on him in the blink of an eye.

[jacksonianmarch]

I’ve been nothing but complimentary of Bloom. I think his motive is not what Sox fans want for this season. He wants to blow this up

[Nick]

I want to repeat what I've said.

 

Bloom is gathering 'core group' to chase championships. As many here have said, last season was surprise for many, probably including Bloom.

 

Age and contract length matter as we discuss who is in that core group. This group has to be relatively young and the money must be reasonable (with one exception, Devers)

 

Definites

 

Whitlock

Houck

Pivetta

Story (6 year deal)

 

Definite Outs

JD, maybe another 2 year deal

Vaz, at best a backup

Kike (age, contract terms)

JBJ

Xander (probably due to Boras factor)

 

Hopeful

Devers...he should be the #1 target

 

On the fence

Verdugo (hasn't shown noticeable improvement)

 

I get it there are several other pieces. I'm just tired.

 

I think Moon had a good template to build a future roster, if someone can create it, I'll participate

 

C

1B

2B

etc. etc. etc.

Edited May 20, 2022 by Nick

[jacksonianmarch]

Bloom proved you can be great without building foundational pieces. Every single player had a value and when someone offered at or above that value, they were moved. He was surgical in that approach. Boston and NY like to fall in love with foundational pieces and pay then premium dollars past their prime. Bloom won’t do that unless held against his will by Henry.

 

Here’s the thing, I don’t want the Sox to suck this year and next. I want them to be playoff contenders but not make it. This will prevent Bloom from doing what I’m literally scared of him doing. And that’s trading players with big value because he knows how to win big trades.

 

Ultimately, the Sox future will be a deep farm system. A major league team that may be a bit unconventional but with young talent with a smattering of dumpster finds (like Strahm and Renfroe) then he will fill in by adding veterans on shorter term high AAV deals a la Scherzer and Correa.

[notin]

I’ve been nothing but complimentary of Bloom. I think his motive is not what Sox fans want for this season. He wants to blow this up

 

Even your input that I feel is motivated by your fandom of the Evil Empire is welcome. I’ve never seen a Sox forum that didn’t have serious, non-trolling Yankee fans. And frankly I think that if there is such thing as a Yankee-free Sox forum, it isn’t any good..,

[moonslav59]

I’ve been nothing but complimentary of Bloom. I think his motive is not what Sox fans want for this season. He wants to blow this up

 

No, you went beyond that. You started getting critical of him, recently.

[notin]

No, you went beyond that. You started getting critical of him, recently.

 

Hardly unique behavior…

[mvp 78]

Verdugo (hasn't shown noticeable improvement)

 

Again, Verdugo is top 5% in k rate for hitters (in not striking out). He has an XSLG of 537 (top 15% in game) and his Barrel % is actually a career high of 8.9%. That means he really is hitting the ball well, but just right at people. Maybe his luck from last night will start to carry over.

[jacksonianmarch]

No, you went beyond that. You started getting critical of him, recently.

 

I’d assume in a “he really doesn’t care about 2022 way”? I honestly don’t remember

[mvp 78]

No, you went beyond that. You started getting critical of him, recently.

 

Now this is a shocking development!

[moonslav59]

I want to repeat what I've said.

 

Bloom is gathering 'core group' to chase championships. As many here have said, last season was surprise for many, probably including Bloom.

 

Age and contract length matter as we discuss who is in that core group. This group has to be relatively young and the money must be reasonable (with one exception, Devers)

 

Definites

 

Whitlock

Houck

Pivetta

Story (6 year deal)

 

Definite Outs

JD, maybe another 2 year deal

Vaz, at best a backup

Kike (age, contract terms)

JBJ

Xander (probably due to Boras factor)

 

Hopeful

Devers...he should be the #1 target

 

On the fence

Verdugo (hasn't shown noticeable improvement)

 

I get it there are several other pieces. I'm just tired.

 

I think Moon had a good template to build a future roster, if someone can create it, I'll participate

 

C

1B

2B

etc. etc. etc.

 

This is the template. I put ___gaps___ where I think we add someone not in the system, or bring one of our current players back:

 

(Some players may be slotted differently; this is just a rough quideline.)

 

SP1 ________

SP2 Whitlock

SP3 Sale

SP4 Paxton

SP5 Pivetta

SP6 Bello/Seabold/Winckowski, (Mata, Walter, Murphy, Ward)

 

Closer _______

RP2 Houck

RP3 _______

RP4 Taylor

RP5 Barnes

RP6 Diekman

RP7 _______

RP8 Crawford/German/Politi/Feltman/Kelly/Ort/Wallace

 

C1 ________

C2 Wong, R Hernandez, Cottam

1B Casas (Binelas)

2B ______, Arroyo/Downs/Hamilton (Yorke)

3B Devers

SS Story, Arauz (Lugo)

LF Verdugo, Duran

CF ______, (Rafaela)

RF ______, (Jimenez)

DH ______, Dalbec, Koss, (McDonough)

 

(Player in parenthesis are likely not ML ready by 2023.)

 

[notin]

Why sign an RP7/RP8 when we have a perfectly (in)capable one already in Barnes?

 

 

 

(Pretend this is green)

[mvp 78]

The path to bullpen relevance at some point needs to include young talent rather than castoffs.

 

Barnes has another year to make up for this lost one. I'll remain hopeful.

[mvp 78]

Barnes' xERA this year is 3.08 so he's been kinda unlucky honestly...

[notin]

Barnes' xERA this year is 3.08 so he's been kinda unlucky honestly...

 

If anyone in the Sox pen is fooling fans, it’s Robles, whose hard hit% and barrel % and exit velocity are right up there with Brasier’s…

[moonslav59]

Why sign an RP7/RP8 when we have a perfectly (in)capable one already in Barnes?

 

 

 

(Pretend this is green)

 

Was Strahm penciled in at 6 or 7?

[notin]

Was Strahm penciled in at 6 or 7?

 

I believe as this was a 2023 depth chart, Strahm has not yet been determined to return…

[mvp 78]

Everyone and their mother knows the sox have struggled this year. The funny thing is the reason for their struggles isnt their much maligned staff, it is the fact they're 26 in MLB in runs scored. The big guys are hitting in JD, Devers and Bogey, but the rest of their guys aren't, especially Verdugo and Kike. Eventually, they will hit a bit. Another issue the sox have faced is a tough schedule. They've only faced the Orioles 3 times and have now faced the Twins, White Sox, Angels, Yanks, Jays, Rays and Braves in the early going. They have the Rangers, who they should sweep today and tomorrow and then get to fly back home to face the Astros. Just a grueling stretch. But there is a light at the end of the tunnel

 

One, the top 6 teams in the AL have quite a dichotomy. The Yanks have one of their best starts ever and are currently 12 games up on the sox, but the sox don't need to catch them. The Jays currently hold the 6 spot in the AL and are only 4.5 games up on the sox.

 

And after the Astros series, things get quite considerably easier.

 

4 at home vs Mariners- harmony knows that his team isnt there yet and the sox find them at a good time

3 away vs White Sox- they still will be without Lynn and Jimenez

5 vs Orioles at home

2 vs Reds at home who are trying to lose

3 in Oakland for a team that is also trying to lose

 

That's 17 games right there where the sox should win at least 10, maybe 12 of them. By the end of that run on June 5th, you will see if the sox are good enough to invest in or will end up being sellers

 

Update:

Didn't sweep the Rangers, but went 2 for 3 and took 2 of 3 from the Astros. Jacko would have taken that.

 

Jacko then surmised 10 or 12 of the next 17 games. So far, they have won 5 of 6 and still have 5 GAMES LEFT TO PLAY AGAINST THE O'S AND 2 AGAINST THE REDS.

 

As longs as they don't completely bite it here, I think they can continue to climb back into things.

[moonslav59]

We have a super tough stretch from June 24 to August 2nd. We better be ahead of someone by the 24th.

[notin]

Again, Verdugo is top 5% in k rate for hitters (in not striking out). He has an XSLG of 537 (top 15% in game) and his Barrel % is actually a career high of 8.9%. That means he really is hitting the ball well, but just right at people. Maybe his luck from last night will start to carry over.

 

 

Even last night when he came up with the bases loaded, he hit the ball hard. Just right at the 2b.

 

Maybe 10 feet to either side, that game is tied…

[Kimmi]

We have a super tough stretch from June 24 to August 2nd. We better be ahead of someone by the 24th.

 

All we can do is keep winning series. If we do that, we will be where we need to be come playoff time. Thankfully, we have a lot of season left to go. One game at a time.