Path to relevance

[Bellhorn04]

I’ve been pretty vocal about my preference for Graterol over Downs and Wong. But then that Minnesota got involved just shows how hard it can be to pry pitching prospects from Andrew Friedman.

 

As for Downs and Wong, it’s still too early to give up on them. Wong has a low ceiling, but Downs does not and his numbers/play took a huge hit with COVID and the Sox subsequent plan for him…

 

Graterol is a decent reliever and no more. 2022 fWAR 0.1.

 

Probably better than most of ours, but that's not saying much.

[notin]

Graterol is a decent reliever and no more. Better than most of ours, but that's not saying a lot.

 

 

And I was ok with that. You need arms in the bullpen, too.

 

But the Sox we’re dealing one year of Betts. They weren’t going to get Dustin May or Josiah Gray in that deal. Look what it took to pry Gray out of LA as it is..

[Bellhorn04]

And I was ok with that. You need arms in the bullpen, too…

 

Right, but with that fWAR you're talking Fungible...

[notin]

Right, but with that fWAR you're talking Fungible...

 

fWAR does depend on opportunities and playing time. Would he be used the same in Boston, where he might be the high leverage guy?

 

Now I know his physical raised a bunch of red flags. Not sure if that could or should be argued with, even though all that came out publicly was he wouldn’t be a starting pitcher…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

And I was ok with that. You need arms in the bullpen, too.

 

But the Sox we’re dealing one year of Betts. They weren’t going to get Dustin May or Josiah Gray in that deal. Look what it took to pry Gray out of LA as it is..

 

... a Betts-type position player (though not as good), plus a pitcher on a Price-type contract -- but one who actually earned it. LA also threw in a better catching prospect than Connor Wong.

 

And we're still paying Price not to hang around Boston. Grrrr...

[Bellhorn04]

fWAR does depend on opportunities and playing time. Would he be used the same in Boston, where he might be the high leverage guy?

 

Now I know his physical raised a bunch of red flags. Not sure if that could or should be argued with, even though all that came out publicly was he wouldn’t be a starting pitcher…

 

The Dodgers are apparently in full agreement that he's not a starter, so we got that much right at least...

[notin]

... a Betts-type position player (though not as good), plus a pitcher on a Price-type contract -- but one who actually earned it. LA also threw in a better catching prospect than Connor Wong.

 

And we're still paying Price not to hang around Boston. Grrrr...

 

 

But don’t omit - intentionally or not - it wasn’t 1 season of a Betts-type player…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

But don’t omit - intentionally or not - it wasn’t 1 season of a Betts-type player…

 

You mean the 64 combined regular season and postseason games that LA got from Trea Turner in 2021...

 

... compared to the 64 combined regular season and postseason games that LA got from Mookie Betts in 2020.

[notin]

You mean the 64 combined regular season and postseason games that LA got from Trea Turner in 2021...

 

... compared to the 64 combined regular season and postseason games that LA got from Mookie Betts in 2020.

 

And then tack on another full season. Plus Price isn’t exactly Scherzer…

[JDavis76]

Just got back from a 2 week vacation.

 

The sox play has certainly improved somewhat. The Yanks stumbled a bit.

 

But after all is said and done the sox only picked up maybe a couple of games on the Yanks and have yet to climb above .500.

 

8 teams ahead of them for 6 playoff spots, still 4 out of the last WC spot.

 

Honestly, I am still surprised.....

Edited May 31, 2022 by JDavis76

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

And then tack on another full season. Plus Price isn’t exactly Scherzer…

 

I still don't see the difference in the full season... Turner signed a contract with LA for '22, Betts was under contract for '20 when he signed, so isn't that also an extension?

 

I made my point about Price -- he was never Scherzer, only paid like him.

[dgalehouse]

The Mets are a good case in point. They spent big and turned a rather mediocre team into a developing powerhouse in short order.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The Mets are a good case in point. They spent big and turned a rather mediocre team into a developing powerhouse in short order.

 

They have some good prospects and a need for a starting pitcher... maybe Wacha, Hill or Eovaldi would enjoy a pennant race by August.

[Bellhorn04]

I still don't see the difference in the full season... Turner signed a contract with LA for '22, Betts was under contract for '20 when he signed, so isn't that also an extension?

 

Turner was under team control for 1.3 seasons and 2 postseasons when the Dodgers got him. 2022 was his final arb year.

 

Betts was only under team control for 1 season and 1 postseason.

[moonslav59]

I made my point about Price -- he was never Scherzer, only paid like him.

 

I remember wishing we signed Scherzer, instead of HRam and Pablito, but at that time, Price had a better and longer track record. (He became a FA the year after Scherzer.)

 

Both pretty much started their careers at age 23/24. Here's a comp on their pre-FA records:

 

Scherzer (161 GS/1013 IP):

82-35 3.52 (117 ERA+) 1.197 WHIP and 3.53 K:BB ratio

 

Price

104-56 3.09 (126 ERA+) 1.132 WHIP and 3.70 K:BB

 

Price was better in every one of these stats listed. He was 29, when he became a FA- same as Scherzer.

 

It's hard for a GM to project a FA signing going forward. Many felt Scherzer was a headcase, and Price was a true professional in every way.

 

The difference is what they did afterwards:

 

Scherzer (208 GS/ 1347 IP)

104-48 2.75 (154 ERA+) 0.954 WHIP and 5.88 K:BB

 

Price (109 GS/671 IP)

51-26 3.85 (117 ERA+) 1.230 WHIP and 3.71 K:BB

 

It's rare a pitcher gets batter at age 30 and beyond. Price expectedly declined, but maybe more than most thought he would.

 

Price was better pre-age 30.

 

[notin]

I still don't see the difference in the full season... Turner signed a contract with LA for '22, Betts was under contract for '20 when he signed, so isn't that also an extension?

 

I made my point about Price -- he was never Scherzer, only paid like him.

 

 

Turner was already under contract for 2022; all he did was agree on a price…

[Kimmi]

The Mets are a good case in point. They spent big and turned a rather mediocre team into a developing powerhouse in short order.

 

And then there are the Phillies, who have had their two highest payrolls ever (by a pretty decent amount) the past two years. They finished 2 games over .500 last year and are currently 6 games under.

 

Thanks Dave!

[moonslav59]

And then there are the Phillies, who have had their two highest payrolls ever (by a pretty decent amount) the past two years. They finished 2 games over .500 last year and are currently 6 games under.

 

Thanks Dave!

 

There are plenty of posters who would love to bring DD back.

[notin]

The Mets are a good case in point. They spent big and turned a rather mediocre team into a developing powerhouse in short order.

 

It does help that Steve Cohen might be worth more than the other 29 owners combined. I don’t think you should expect that from Henry…

[Bellhorn04]

It does help that Steve Cohen might be worth more than the other 29 owners combined. I don’t think you should expect that from Henry…

 

We just need Elon Musk to pivot from space and Twitter to the Red Sox!

[notin]

We just need Elon Musk to pivot from space and Twitter to the Red Sox!

 

Or get Jeff Bezos into MLB…

[Kimmi]

There are plenty of posters who would love to bring DD back.

 

Dombrowski's methods are liked by many on here. I understand because he gave us seemingly instant results. My contention is that the great majority of the work was done before Dombrowski arrived, and Dombrowski sowed the fruits of other people's hard labor.

 

Either way, people like to see those big deals being made. I get it. I don't agree with it, but I get it.

[JDavis76]

Dombrowski's methods are liked by many on here. I understand because he gave us seemingly instant results. My contention is that the great majority of the work was done before Dombrowski arrived, and Dombrowski sowed the fruits of other people's hard labor.

 

Either way, people like to see those big deals being made. I get it. I don't agree with it, but I get it.

 

Flags fly forever and prospects are just prospects until proven otherwise

[Kimmi]

Flags fly forever and prospects are just prospects until proven otherwise

 

Spending a lot of money does not guarantee a flag.

 

It does typically guarantee that at some point, the team will be handcuffed by those large contracts and will have to reboot. Without those prospects, proven or not, the reboot just takes that much longer.

 

Teams can easily win championships without spending $300M + on a player. It starts with a strong farm system. You know that. I'm not saying that a team should never trade away a prospect.

[JDavis76]

Spending a lot of money does not guarantee a flag.

 

It does typically guarantee that at some point, the team will be handcuffed by those large contracts and will have to reboot. Without those prospects, proven or not, the reboot just takes that much longer.

 

Teams can easily win championships without spending $300M + on a player. It starts with a strong farm system. You know that. I'm not saying that a team should never trade away a prospect.

 

No, it doesn't guarantee anything.

 

But I guarantee it worked in dave's case.

[Kimmi]

No, it doesn't guarantee anything.

 

But I guarantee it worked in dave's case.

 

Only because the strong foundation was already there.

 

And Dave was only able to do what he did because the strong foundation was already there.

[notin]

No, it doesn't guarantee anything.

 

But I guarantee it worked in dave's case.

 

Wow. You can guarantee that it happened already!! Such the soothsayer!!

 

No doubt it runs in your family - tracing back to your grandfather guaranteeing the Japanese would attack Pearl Harbor, which he started doing in January, 1942…

[dgalehouse]

Right now , the three highest payrolls in MLB are the the Dodgers , Mets and Yankees . Those three teams also have the three best records in MLB. If that were strictly random , it would be a monumental coincidence . The odds against it would be enormous.

[moonslav59]

Only because the strong foundation was already there.

 

And Dave was only able to do what he did because the strong foundation was already there.

 

Although people question just how good the farm foundation was, back then, because many fizzled out, they had enough perceived value to bring back a lot in trades. He was also handed a roster with Betts, Bogey, Devers, Beni, JBJ, ERod, Papi, Porcello, Uehara and others. Yes, he was also handed deadwood like HRam, Pablito & Rusney, but HRam did give him a good season after bombing with Ben.

 

[Bellhorn04]

Although people question just how good the farm foundation was, back then, because many fizzled out, they had enough perceived value to bring back a lot in trades. He was also handed a roster with Betts, Bogey, Devers, Beni, JBJ, ERod, Papi, Porcello, Uehara and others. Yes, he was also handed deadwood like HRam, Pablito & Rusney, but HRam did give him a good season after bombing with Ben.

 

 

He was handed Pedroia's unfortunately dead money too.