A Realistic View at 2022: Part III

[moonslav59]

I think hernandez timing is starting to get better. He may heat up soon.

 

Dalbec remains a mystery. All the tools are there except maybe discipline, and yet it is hard to tell if he just gets lucky or is just not picking up the spin of the ball?

 

Bradley is just a walking D.O.A.

 

JBJ has been showing signs of life, recently.

 

.949 last 8 games (28 PAs)

.833 last 14 games (49 PAs)

.817 last 23 games (78 PAs)

 

Even .672 over his last 40 games is better than many of us expected.

 

He leads all Sox OF'ers in bWAR at 0.5.

 

[a700hitter]

With our 4th OFer being Arroyo, I would rather see Bradley out there.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Starting to sense the answer to various posts and thread questions that can be paraphrased with: "Why is so-and-so still on this team?!?!"

 

A: Showcase...

 

In the next month, no matter how many games the inconsistent Red Sox eek over or fall short of .500, expect a lot of MLB scouts in attendance. With more playoff berths than ever before, July will be a seller's dream.

[jad]

Pretty sad state of affairs when the most positive thing about a team is the expectation that they can get good value by selling their best players at the trade deadline. To "showcase" essentially means that the players who perform well will be gone; the ones who don't will be retained. How the business plan of getting rid of your productive employees and keeping your drones succeeds in such matters as selling jerseys and season tickets, winning championships, and putting the pennies in the seats is beyond me.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Pretty sad state of affairs when the most positive thing about a team is the expectation that they can get good value by selling their best players at the trade deadline. To "showcase" essentially means that the players who perform well will be gone; the ones who don't will be retained. How the business plan of getting rid of your productive employees and keeping your drones succeeds in such matters as selling jerseys and season tickets, winning championships, and putting the pennies in the seats is beyond me.

 

If we try stepping away from team-building from the perspective of fans -- who want to win now (especially those of us who may not have the luxury of a lot more tomorrows) -- and look at it from a front office standpoint...

 

... the next two months presents perhaps the greatest opportunity in Chaim Bloom's master plan to recruit, secure and supplement a legitimate core of what he hopes will soon be a sustained contender in Boston.

 

That is, unless he decides to trade Rafael Devers with a year of control left next winter.

[Bellhorn04]

How the business plan of getting rid of your productive employees and keeping your drones succeeds in such matters as selling jerseys and season tickets, winning championships, and putting the pennies in the seats is beyond me.

 

The logic behind it isn't really that complicated.

 

When the productive employees are baseball players, in order to keep them, you have to sign them to exorbitant guaranteed contracts that are based on past performance. You run the risk that they will soon become non-productive assets due to aging, injury or underperformance. And you'll still have to pay them.

 

So you trade them for prospects and try to rebuild that way.

 

None of which means I like the idea of losing guys like Bogey, JD, Eovaldi or least of all Devers.

[mvp 78]

With our 4th OFer being Arroyo, I would rather see Bradley out there.

 

@SmittyOnMLB

Red Sox's Jackie Bradley Jr. batting .301 with a .338 on-base percentage, .480 slugging percentage, .817 OPS in his past 23 games (78 PA) dating back to May 3.

[jad]

the notion of "value" is a problem. Of course, buying 10 mopeds at $15/each is a GREAT VALUE!! Much better than buying, say, a Harley Sportster or a Triumph Bonneville (I'm old, obviously!) overpriced at $20K. But you're not going to win many races with that strategy or get anyone to want to watch what you do with them.

[mvp 78]

the notion of "value" is a problem. Of course, buying 10 mopeds at $15/each is a GREAT VALUE!! Much better than buying, say, a Harley Sportster or a Triumph Bonneville (I'm old, obviously!) overpriced at $20K. But you're not going to win many races with that strategy or get anyone to want to watch what you do with them.

 

You need to sign "some" value guys, just not "only" value guys.

[Bellhorn04]

the notion of "value" is a problem. Of course, buying 10 mopeds at $15/each is a GREAT VALUE!! Much better than buying, say, a Harley Sportster or a Triumph Bonneville (I'm old, obviously!) overpriced at $20K. But you're not going to win many races with that strategy or get anyone to want to watch what you do with them.

 

The Harley and the Triumph will hold their value a long time.

 

Ballplayers aren't quite as reliable.

[notin]

You need to sign "some" value guys, just not "only" value guys.

 

That depends.

 

I see nothing wrong with signing only value guys if you extend your star players at market value…

[Bellhorn04]

That depends.

 

I see nothing wrong with signing only value guys if you extend your star players at market value…

 

"Market value" is a nebulous concept with star baseball players, because you may end up in a bidding war with crazy people, the kind who will guarantee Corey Seager $325 mill...

[notin]

"Market value" is a nebulous concept with star baseball players, because you may end up in a bidding war with crazy people, the kind who will guarantee Corey Seager $325 mill...

 

True, unless you extend them before they can declare free agency.

 

But even then, as long as free agency is still an option, the player and his agent have all the leverage …

[mvp 78]

That depends.

 

I see nothing wrong with signing only value guys if you extend your star players at market value…

 

If they are re-signing Raffy and Xander and others, let me know.

[notin]

If they are re-signing Raffy and Xander and others, let me know.

 

I hope at least Devers.

 

The signing of Story has taken away some of Bogaerts’ aforementioned leverage, and his demands probably exceed the Sox’ desired budget.

 

But we have seen Whitlock extended. I imagine if they ever give Houck a role and he excels in it, he’s another candidate…

[mvp 78]

I hope at least Devers.

 

The signing of Story has taken away some of Bogaerts’ aforementioned leverage, and his demands probably exceed the Sox’ desired budget…

 

Maybe? We have no idea.

 

If they fail to re-sign Devers, I think fans will be rightfully pissed off no matter who they bring back as a replacement.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

What's more realistic in the next two months:

 

1. Bloom will ship prospects for a closer...

 

2. Bloom will receive actual prospects for JD, Eovaldi and Wacha -- who may never have more peak value, this high, again...

 

3. Bloom will get what he can for Kike, Vazquez, Hill, and anyone else on a one-year contract...

 

4. Bloom will land a really good prospect for Xander Bogaerts...

[mvp 78]

What's more realistic in the next two months:

 

1. Bloom will ship prospects for a closer...

 

2. Bloom will receive actual prospects for JD, Eovaldi and Wacha -- who may never have more peak value, this high, again...

 

3. Bloom will get what he can for Kike, Vazquez, Hill, and anyone else on a one-year contract...

 

4. Bloom will land a really good prospect for Xander Bogaerts...

 

2>3>4>1

 

I think Wacha is the most likely to be traded and JD is a valuable asset for sure. I think Kiké has value at the deadline to a contending team. Not sure they really want to deal Xander. I don't think they trade for a "closer." I bet they make a deal for a reliever who ends up closing, but it's someone we are underwhelmed with.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2>3>4>1

 

I think Wacha is the most likely to be traded and JD is a valuable asset for sure. I think Kiké has value at the deadline to a contending team. Not sure they really want to deal Xander. I don't think they trade for a "closer." I bet they make a deal for a reliever who ends up closing, but it's someone we are underwhelmed with.

 

I actually had the same order as you. But I do think a mutual understanding is coming with X-man, and that he'll be open to showcasing his skills for a contender if it comes to that.

[notin]

Maybe? We have no idea.

 

If they fail to re-sign Devers, I think fans will be rightfully pissed off no matter who they bring back as a replacement.

 

 

Not re-signing Devers has PR Nightmare written all over it. Even if they could get Julio Rodriguez and George Kirby back in return…

[dgalehouse]

The best players are very expensive to sign and to keep. And it gets more expensive all the time. And there is a pretty good chance that , sooner or later , the player will not be worth it. But this is the big freakin' leagues. If you want to play big time baseball , you should be willing to pay . Planning to replace expensive talent like Betts and Devers by building the farm is a longshot at best.

[notin]

The best players are very expensive to sign and to keep. And it gets more expensive all the time. And there is a pretty good chance that , sooner or later , the player will not be worth it. But this is the big freakin' leagues. If you want to play big time baseball , you should be willing to pay . Planning to replace expensive talent like Betts and Devers by building the farm is a longshot at best.

 

 

The Sox have shown a willingness to pay. They have had a top 5 payroll every year for a couple of decades now.

 

The problem is they (or any team) just can’t pay everyone. And when you pay Player A, it can sometimes make it difficult to pay Player B. Other teams do this quite often as well. Didn’t you notice the roster juggling the Dodgers did to replace Kelsey Jansen with Craig Kimbrel?

[Bellhorn04]

The Sox have shown a willingness to pay. They have had a top 5 payroll every year for a couple of decades now.

 

The problem is they (or any team) just can’t pay everyone. And when you pay Player A, it can sometimes make it difficult to pay Player B. Other teams do this quite often as well. Didn’t you notice the roster juggling the Dodgers did to replace Kelsey Jansen with Craig Kimbrel?

 

Nah, Henry has gone cheap on us - how far do you expect to go on a $240 million payroll?

[mvp 78]

The best players are very expensive to sign and to keep. And it gets more expensive all the time. And there is a pretty good chance that , sooner or later , the player will not be worth it. But this is the big freakin' leagues. If you want to play big time baseball , you should be willing to pay . Planning to replace expensive talent like Betts and Devers by building the farm is a longshot at best.

 

And guys like Betts and Devers make money for the club off the field through advertising. As long as they aren't complete dogs by they time they are 32, the contracts are fine.

[mvp 78]

Nah, Henry has gone cheap on us - how far do you expect to go on a $240 million payroll?

 

A 40 man roster full of Jake Diekmans.

[Old Red]

Nah, Henry has gone cheap on us - how far do you expect to go on a $240 million payroll?

 

We’ve gone through this payroll stuff many times. Most of the payroll has come before the Bloom arrival. Let’s see where things stand to start the season 2023. That will be the telltale.

[mvp 78]

The Sox have shown a willingness to pay. They have had a top 5 payroll every year for a couple of decades now.

 

The problem is they (or any team) just can’t pay everyone. And when you pay Player A, it can sometimes make it difficult to pay Player B. Other teams do this quite often as well. Didn’t you notice the roster juggling the Dodgers did to replace Kenley Jansen with Craig Kimbrel?

 

It's a difficult balancing act, but you just need to figure out who to pay and who to move on from. No, you can't keep everyone.

[jad]

The Harley and the Triumph will hold their value a long time.

 

Ballplayers aren't quite as reliable.

 

Ha! That a sportster will hold its value a long time will come as news to anyone who has actually owned one!

[Bellhorn04]

Ha! That a sportster will hold its value a long time will come as news to anyone who has actually owned one!

 

The Harley will though, if it's well maintained, right?

[dgalehouse]

The Sox have shown a willingness to pay. They have had a top 5 payroll every year for a couple of decades now.

 

The problem is they (or any team) just can’t pay everyone. And when you pay Player A, it can sometimes make it difficult to pay Player B. Other teams do this quite often as well. Didn’t you notice the roster juggling the Dodgers did to replace Kelsey Jansen with Craig Kimbrel?

 

That's right . The Sox have one of the big payrolls. And they have been successful. It's only in the last three or four years that we hear all the talk that they can't afford this guy or that guy. A lot of fans have still not gotten over losing Mookie.