Fire Bloom .

[harmony]

What would you say is the M's weakest two areas and worst two players on the 40?

Maybe leftfield and lefthanded reliever.

 

Or not.

 

Some point to the scarcity of lefthanded specialists among Seattle relievers (Gabe Speier and Brennan Bernardino notwithstanding). Others note that many righthanders in the M's bullpen are effective against lefthanded hitters.

 

The Mariners currently have Jarred Kelenic, Taylor Trammell and Cade Marlowe as leftfield options while lacking a dedicated designated hitter.

 

A judgment on the weakest players on Seattle's 40-man roster is beyond this poster's expertise:

 

40-Man Roster | Seattle Mariners

WWW.MLB.COM

---

The Official Site of Major League Baseball

[moonslav59]

MLB.com reports Marlins shopping Lopez, need offense.

 

BTV accepts Yorke and Murphy for Lopez and Garcia. How hard was that?

 

Even if we get nothing from Garcia, the pay for both Garcia and Lopez will still be as good or better than FA SP numbers, but I think Garcia might be okay in RF or at DH. BTV has his salary at $41M, so his -26 numbers projects a value of $15M over 4 years- not great, but not terrible. (Production Value: 3.9/yr)

 

As a reference, they have Verdugo at $17.3M salary and 22.9 value over 2 years. (Production Value: 11.5/yr)

[moonslav59]

According to Peter Abraham the Red Sox have not made a competitive offer to Bogey, and Bogey is meeting in person with other teams. If the report is true would that surprise anyone?

 

I think they offered Bogey what they thought he was worth. That number is probably not "competitive." If the word that Bogey's agent will take the final offer back to BOS to match, makes me think it will be so far above our offer, we will say no.

[moonslav59]

Some interesting BTV numbers on Bloom acquisitions:

 

Red= no draftee or IFA

 

1. Mayer 55.4

4. Whitlock 34.4

6. Schreiber 19.0

9. Bleis 13.6

10. Romero 8.7

11. Yorke 8.0

12. Anthony 6.5

13. Coffey 6.5

14. McGuire 6.5

16. Verdugo 5.7

19. Jordan 5.0

21. Paxton 4.2

24. Hosmer 3.1

25. Seabold 2.9

26. McDonough 2.7

28. Winckowski 2.6

29. Hamilton 2.4

32. Abreu 2.1

33. Wong 1.9

34. Rosier 1.8

35. Drohan 1.7

36. Hickey 1.7

37. Rodriguez-Cruz 1.7

38. E Valdez 1.7

40. German 1.4

 

Other Notabless:

1.3 Kavadas

1.2 Binelas & Ferguson

1.1 Downs

1.0 Kelly, Refsnyder

0.9 Pivetta

0.7 RHern & Koss

0.5 Gambrell

0.4 Wallace

0.3 Hamilton & C Martin

0.2 FValdez

0.1 Kike, de la Rosa, Ort

0.0 Park

-0.3 Joely

-0.6 Arroyo

-7.8 Barnes (extension)

-37.4 Story

 

 

 

 

[vjcsmoke]

As expected, Bloom getting rid of homegrown talent again. They're not even gonna make a competitive offer for Bogaerts.

 

Meanwhile we're supposed to settle for Trevor Story. That's a clear DOWNGRADE. Let's continue to watch Bloom run this franchise into the ground. But yup everything's fine, Bloom can do no wrong!

[vjcsmoke]

Even if we get nothing from Garcia, the pay for both Garcia and Lopez will still be as good or better than FA SP numbers, but I think Garcia might be okay in RF or at DH. BTV has his salary at $41M, so his -26 numbers projects a value of $15M over 4 years- not great, but not terrible. (Production Value: 3.9/yr)

 

As a reference, they have Verdugo at $17.3M salary and 22.9 value over 2 years. (Production Value: 11.5/yr)

 

Verdugo's numbers have declined for 3 straight years. He's barely above a replacement level outfielder. Red Sox have one of the worst OFs in all of baseball. Even if you try to polish a turd, it's still a turd.

 

To top it off, he traded a +2.4 WAR OFer in Hunter Renfroe for a -.8 WAR player in JBJ. In fact it got so bad the Red Sox had to cut JBJ in the middle of the season. What genius moves will Bloom pull off next to keep the Red Sox in the AL East basement? Can't wait to see it!

[a700hitter]

As expected, Bloom getting rid of homegrown talent again. They're not even gonna make a competitive offer for Bogaerts.

 

Meanwhile we're supposed to settle for Trevor Story. That's a clear DOWNGRADE. Let's continue to watch Bloom run this franchise into the ground. But yup everything's fine, Bloom can do no wrong!

Huge downgrade.

[moonslav59]

We haven't lost Bogey or Devers, yet, and there is a chance we replace Bogey with Correa.

 

Is that a "downgrade?"

 

If we replace Bogey with Swanson, and signed Contreras, Nimmo, Nate & Jansen, would you still be upset?

[redsoxrules]

We haven't lost Bogey or Devers, yet, and there is a chance we replace Bogey with Correa.

 

Is that a "downgrade?"

 

If we replace Bogey with Swanson, and signed Contreras, Nimmo, Nate & Jansen, would you still be upset?

 

The Sox are not getting Correa. If they are getting any SS it's either Bogey or Swanson

[moonslav59]

The Sox are not getting Correa. If they are getting any SS it's either Bogey or Swanson

 

I don't think we sign Correa, either, despite the no QO status, but I was making a point about losing Bogey but maybe not "downgrading."

 

I do think Swanson is a good choice. His 103 OPS+ since 2019 is far behind Bogey's 133 OPS+, but his defense might make us some of that "downgrade." If we use the money saved to better upgrade another position or two, maybe we can do better.

 

[Hugh2]

As expected, Bloom getting rid of homegrown talent again. They're not even gonna make a competitive offer for Bogaerts.

 

Meanwhile we're supposed to settle for Trevor Story. That's a clear DOWNGRADE. Let's continue to watch Bloom run this franchise into the ground. But yup everything's fine, Bloom can do no wrong!

 

If the reports are true that Bogaerts is going to bring his best offer to the Sox and give them a chance to match, then it makes sense they’ve made no offer to him yet.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

A's on the verge of trading Murphy. The best I could do on BTV is Houck, Murphy, Rafaela and Romero. The site called it a minor overpay, but did not specify from which side.

 

Rafaela and Romero may be Bloom's best chips this winter because their stock is up -- and they're redundant, since the Sox two best position prospects are Bleis and Mayer.

 

The latter two have to be untouchable, unless someone wants to deal a controllable ace pitcher... and why would anyone want to do that?

[moonslav59]

A's on the verge of trading Murphy. The best I could do on BTV is Houck, Murphy, Rafaela and Romero. The site called it a minor overpay, but did not specify from which side.

 

Rafaela and Romero may be Bloom's best chips this winter because their stock is up -- and they're redundant, since the Sox two best position prospects are Bleis and Mayer.

 

The latter two have to be untouchable, unless someone wants to deal a controllable ace pitcher... and why would anyone want to do that?

 

Romero is a tough one for me. I'd rather we just sign Contreras, although I have pitching as a higher need.

[mvp 78]

As expected, Bloom getting rid of homegrown talent again. They're not even gonna make a competitive offer for Bogaerts.

 

Meanwhile we're supposed to settle for Trevor Story. That's a clear DOWNGRADE. Let's continue to watch Bloom run this franchise into the ground. But yup everything's fine, Bloom can do no wrong!

 

Story can't even play SS anymore.

[mvp 78]

I don't think we sign Correa, either, despite the no QO status, but I was making a point about losing Bogey but maybe not "downgrading."

 

I do think Swanson is a good choice. His 103 OPS+ since 2019 is far behind Bogey's 133 OPS+, but his defense might make us some of that "downgrade." If we use the money saved to better upgrade another position or two, maybe we can do better.

 

 

The problem with Swanson is that he's a SS only profile. His arm is so bad that you can't really transition him to 3b or an OF position. Story is already at 2b, so nobody is going there. I wouldn't sign Swanson. To me, it's Correa, Turner, Bogey or bust. The bust would be sign Andrus to a short term contract and wait for a younger guy to take over the position.

[mvp 78]

A's on the verge of trading Murphy. The best I could do on BTV is Houck, Murphy, Rafaela and Romero. The site called it a minor overpay, but did not specify from which side.

 

Rafaela and Romero may be Bloom's best chips this winter because their stock is up -- and they're redundant, since the Sox two best position prospects are Bleis and Mayer.

 

The latter two have to be untouchable, unless someone wants to deal a controllable ace pitcher... and why would anyone want to do that?

 

To me, the only "untouchable" guys would be Bleis, Mayer, Casas and Bello. I would deal Rafaela and Romero in the right trade. The untouchable guys would have to bring back the controllable ace.

[moonslav59]

The problem with Swanson is that he's a SS only profile. His arm is so bad that you can't really transition him to 3b or an OF position. Story is already at 2b, so nobody is going there. I wouldn't sign Swanson. To me, it's Correa, Turner, Bogey or bust. The bust would be sign Andrus to a short term contract and wait for a younger guy to take over the position.

 

Swanson has plau range and is ranked rather highly in several defensive metrics, except UZR/150.

 

I admit I am relying on only metrics, and if he's close to Bogey in financial cost, I'd rather just pay Bogey.

 

I get a feeling we go Andrus as a bridge to Mayer and then spend at catcher (Contreras or a trade for Murphy) OF (maybe take on Soler or Garcia's contract to get a solid SP'er from the Marlins) and another pen piece (Jansen or T Rogers?). This still leaves a lot of money left under the tax line. Maybe we sign Nate or Taillon, too.

[moonslav59]

To me, the only "untouchable" guys would be Bleis, Mayer, Casas and Bello. I would deal Rafaela and Romero in the right trade. The untouchable guys would have to bring back the controllable ace.

 

I think Romero may be better than Casas, but with Mayer ahead of him and Story at 2B for 5 more years, I can see putting him 5th and out of the untouchables list. I am pretty certain Romero's value will rise, next season, so trading him now might not make much sense.

 

Rafaela seems like the obvious choice to trade, but we need a RF'er, now, and Kike has 1 year left/ Verdugo 2. The guy plays amazing D, and we all know how much our organization loves CF/RF defense.

 

We may not trade any of our top 6, which includes Rafaela. I think our top priority is still the extended future, but with so much budget space, they think they can buy their way to respectability, this year, and make the stronger push in 2024 and beyond. I can't really fault that thinking, but the Devers window is fast approaching closure.

[mvp 78]

Swanson has plau range and is ranked rather highly in several defensive metrics, except UZR/150.

 

I admit I am relying on only metrics, and if he's close to Bogey in financial cost, I'd rather just pay Bogey.

 

I get a feeling we go Andrus as a bridge to Mayer and then spend at catcher (Contreras or a trade for Murphy) OF (maybe take on Soler or Garcia's contract to get a solid SP'er from the Marlins) and another pen piece (Jansen or T Rogers?). This still leaves a lot of money left under the tax line. Maybe we sign Nate or Taillon, too.

 

He has plus range?

 

Careeer RngR: -6.6

[mvp 78]

I think Romero may be better than Casas.

 

How are you already projecting Romero to be better than Casas?

 

Coming out of HS, Casas was already a highly rated prospect.

[moonslav59]

How are you already projecting Romero to be better than Casas?

 

Coming out of HS, Casas was already a highly rated prospect.

 

How does saying "I think..." and "May be..." mean I am sure about the statement I wrote?

 

I'm not too high on 1Bmen. I think they are easy to find at reasonable costs, although the Freeman and Abreu deals are changing that.

 

Romero has a lot of upside, IMO, and plays a premiere position.

 

He MAY end up better than Casas. I would not bet against that. As of right now, I think Casas has more trade value, but that doesn't mean I would choose to trade Romero over Casas. I think Romero is undervalued on BTV, but it's typical with farther away prospects. The one bad thing about Romero, in terms of who should we trade of the two, is he is blocked by Mayer and Story.

[notin]

He has plus range?

 

Careeer RngR: -6.6

 

Most of that damage came from an awful 2019, where he had -9.6 RngR. Outside of that season, he’s league-average for Range…

[moonslav59]

Most of that damage came from an awful 2019, where he had -9.6 RngR. Outside of that season, he’s league-average for Range…

 

I was looking at 2021-2022- a pretty large and recent sample size, where Swanson has a +1.0 RRng.

 

2021-2022

1st in innings at SS

2nd in fangraphs rankings on D

8th in DRS at 2 (not all that great, I know, especially with so many innings)

10th in UZR/150 at 1.6 (only area behind Bogey)

[mvp 78]

Romero has a lot of upside, IMO, and plays a premiere position.

 

 

Some evaluators think he can stick at short, while others think he profiles best at second base long-term.

[mvp 78]

Most of that damage came from an awful 2019, where he had -9.6 RngR. Outside of that season, he’s league-average for Range…

 

League-average is NOT plus range though? That's still average!

[mvp 78]

I was looking at 2021-2022- a pretty large and recent sample size, where Swanson has a +1.0 RRng.

 

2021-2022

1st in innings at SS

2nd in fangraphs rankings on D

8th in DRS at 2 (not all that great, I know, especially with so many innings)

10th in UZR/150 at 1.6 (only area behind Bogey)

 

DRS 21 -7

DRS 22 9

 

OAA 21 3

OAA 22 20

 

His defensive performance has been all over the place and I can't proclaim him a great defender going forward just because he had a great season last year. I would expect the roller coaster to continue especially as he gets into his 30's.

[moonslav59]

DRS 21 -7

DRS 22 9

 

OAA 21 3

OAA 22 20

 

His defensive performance has been all over the place and I can't proclaim him a great defender going forward just because he had a great season last year. I would expect the roller coaster to continue especially as he gets into his 30's.

 

Do you project him as being better than Bogey at SS going forward?

 

Who will be mo ved off SS earlier?

[mvp 78]

Do you project him as being better than Bogey at SS going forward?

 

Who will be mo ved off SS earlier?

 

Swanson fWAR since age 25:

19 2.0

20 2.3

21 3.4

22 6.4

 

Bogey (1 year older)

19 5.9

20 1.6

21 4.4

22 6.1

 

Swanson has had one great season, but was nothing special before then. To expect him to do that year in and year out going forward is wishful thinking. Good for him that he did that in his contract year.

 

Steamer 23:

Bogey 4.5

Swanson 3.2

[mvp 78]

Swanson is a better defender, but his bat is much worse.

[moonslav59]

Swanson is a better defender, but his bat is much worse.

 

Exactly what I said. (From 2019-2023: Bogey 133 OPS+ to 103 for Swanson.)