Fire Bloom .

[mvp 78]

No drama in that…

 

Let Paws do it. Then Paws becomes the new mascot. There's the drama.

[Old Red]

Kiké has a much higher upside than Chang or Reyes. Reyes is a career replacement player. Chang could be marginally better, but his bat is just awful. I understand why he kept trying Kiké there. Cora just never caught lightning in a bottle with him this year.

 

Kike has upside? He hasn’t hit in 2 years now. He may have a little bit better bat than Chang, or Reyes, but that’s not saying much. Chang solidified the D at SS before he got hurt, and he’s done it since he’s come back. I don’t understand at all why Cora kept putting Kike out there as long as he did.

[Bellhorn04]

Kike has upside? He hasn’t hit in 2 years now. He may have a little bit better bat than Chang, or Reyes, but that’s not saying much. Chang solidified the D at SS before he got hurt, and he’s done it since he’s come back. I don’t understand at all why Cora kept putting Kike out there as long as he did.

 

Because they hoped he'd get better. It's the only answer anyone can possibly give...

[notin]

Let Paws do it. Then Paws becomes the new mascot. There's the drama.

 

I think they should have a gladiator battle for the rights to be mascot. Televise it on NESN

[mvp 78]

I think they should have a gladiator battle for the rights to be mascot. Televise it on NESN

 

Power Rankings:

 

Paws

Slugger

Wally

Woofster

Reedy

Muggsy

Smiley

 

Paws and Slugger are going to clean house. Lots of jobbers once you get past Wally. Woofster has the chance to be something someday though.

[moonslav59]

Bloom didn't do enough to upgrade the starting pitching in the offseason, and he didn't do anything about it at the trade deadline.

 

We've been able to survive with openers and bullpen games, but I don't think that strategy can hold up for long.

 

And who knows if Sale, Whitlock or Houck will contribute at all the rest of the way?

 

I don't have a good feeling about how this is going to play out.

 

We'll never know what might have been available for the $10M or so "left on the table," budget wise.

 

This is not meant as excuse-making, as I agree that more resources should have been focused on the rotation, but Bloom had to choose some areas to "gamble" on in-house solutions, so money could be spent on others. Some of those "gambles" seem to have paid off, so far, while 2 major areas were big misses.

 

SP: He actually missed, at least twice.

1. He swung and missed on the $10M/1 deal for Kluber.

2. He gambled a mix of Sale, Paxton, Houck, Whitlock, Pivetta, Bello, Crawford, Winckowski, Mate, Walter & Murphy could cobble together to fill the other 4 slots.

On the surface, it doesn't look like a wild swing and miss, but with the injury histories, it was a significant gamble that looks like a significant loss, unless pitchers return and lead us somewhere special.

 

SS: We've beaten this one to several deaths, already. The plan was to let Kike and Chang hold down the position until Mondesi (May?) then Story returned (August?) When Kike's D blew up from day one, then Chang went on the IL, the choice looked like an obvious blunder. We added Reyes, but then failed to play him, until Kike's horrific D finally was noticed by Cora. One could maybe argue the original plan was not so bad, if Bloom had only added someone like Iggy or played Reyes more. As it turned out, maybe we could have used Duvall's money or some of that $10M, I mentioned earlier, to boost the SS and or SP'er slots, but at the expense of other positions Bloom did choose to seriously focus resources on- all seemingly high need areas.

 

Pen: Our pen sucked, last year, and seemingly overperformed in 2021. Bloom threw a pretty big chunk of the winter budget on the pen

 

OF: Our OF was one of MLB's worst in 2022- both on D and O. Bloom spent a lot of the winter budget on Yoshida. He also signed Duvall to $7M/1. Had he relied on in-house solution, Duran, instead of signing Duvall, maybe SP & SS would have been better. That was pretty hard to predict, and none of us ever suggested Bloom not look for a CF'er. (Bloom also extended Kike in the summer at $10M/1. Of course, we view that as a failure now, and some thought so, at the time, including "Like I said" Red.)

 

DH: Turner was a golden choice for DH and back-up 3B, 1B and now 2B. End of discussion. Great signing.

 

Other areas Bloom let ride with in-house solutions worked much better than SS and SP.

 

1B: Many complained we started 2022 with Dalbec and Casas as our only real 1B options. Dalbec sucked and Casas got hurt.

We basically started with the same 1Bmen with Turner as insurance we really ended up not needed. Casas has been impressive.

 

C: Wong has been a very pleasant surprise. McGuire struggled, got hurt and has not gotten good results from the staff. I'd say Bloom did right, letting this position ride.

 

2B: This position has been a mixed bag, much like last year. No doubt, the .639 2B OPS has not been good. It was .724, last year, so this looks like a gamble that lost, too. 2B has been one of the most shared positions, this year:

191 PAs Arroyo

100 EValdez

59 Kike

29 Reyes

24 Turner

7 Chang

 

SP:

Bello doing well was a gamble that paid off.

Paxton was expected to miss time, early, but has done well.

Crawford has been impressive in limited duty as a SP'er and long man.

Winckowski has not been used as a SP'er but has done well in relief. (Murphy, too. Walter? OK.)

 

Sale had a nice 8 game run after a 3 start troubling start to 2023.

Houck did great the first time through a line-up but sucked afterwards.

Whitlock never got on track.

Mata was on the IL almost all year.

 

It seems many gambles were taken and probably many were needed, unless we chose to spend less on the OF and pen.

 

There are still 2 months left, so maybe something can be salvaged at 3-4 slots: SS, SP (1-2 slots) and 2B, but the final grade at all 3 will likely be bad.

9+ gambles seemed to pay off:

LF: Yoshida (many felt he was a gross overpay)

CF: Duran & Duvall (needs little explanation)

DH: Turner (WOW!)

1B: Casas (no longer a "suspect," but now "my boy.")

Closer: Jansen (What a difference a year makes at this slot.)

Set-Up: Martin (WOW!)

SP: Bello (WOW!)

RP/SP: Crawford (WOW!)

RP: Winckowski (WOW!)

Maybe RF: putting Dugo in RF FT.

OF depth: Refsnyder

 

Certainly we can see moves that failed, but I'm finding it hard to see the whole picture as being something looking net negative.

[notin]

Power Rankings:

 

Paws

Slugger

Wally

Woofster

Reedy

Muggsy

Smiley

 

Paws and Slugger are going to clean house. Lots of jobbers once you get past Wally. Woofster has the chance to be something someday though.

 

The list is incomplete without Fredbird…

[mvp 78]

The list is incomplete without Fredbird…

 

Not in the Sox org.

[moonslav59]

A look at next year's budget and roster situation for Bloom, who will likely be GM, next year- like it or not.

 

Lux Tax Budget

29.1 Devers

25.6 Sale

23.3 Story

18.0 Masataka

16.0 Jansen

8.5 Martin

4.7 Whitlock

2.0 Refsnyder

125M Total

 

Options:

Turner: $13.4M player option/ $6.7M buyout: Project he takes buyout and will be a FA

Paxton: $13M x 2 yrs club option + performance bonuses based on GS in '23. Club accepts.

Kluber: $11M club option w no buyout. Sox decline option.

Joely: $4.25 club option or $500K buyout: Project club buys him out.

Bleier: $3.75 club option w $250K buyout. Project club buys him out.

Est Option Total $14M for Paxton (counting bonus)

 

Arbitration Estimates:

9.0 Verdugo (3rd arb of 3)

7.2 Pivetta (3 of 4)

5.0 Urias (3 of 4) May nontender (Project goes to arb)

3.0 Arroyo (3 of 3) May nontender (Project nontender)

2.0 McGuire (2 of 3)

1.0 Chang (2 of 3)

1.0 Schreiber (1 of 3)

0.8 Dalbec (1 of 3)

Arb Total $26M for 16 Players

 

$165M Total

 

24 Pre-Arb Returnees:

Houck

Crawford

Bello

Duran

Casas

Winckowski

Wong

Rafaela

Murphy

Walter

Bernardino

Robertson

Mills

Abreu

Hamilton

Kelly

EValdez

Mata

Reyes (DFA?)

Jacques (DFA)

Lovera (DFA)

Gudino (DFA)

Garza (DFA)

Ort (DFA)

 

Est. $17M for pre-arbs, 0-3 yr bonus pool and 40 man roster players in minors.

Est. $17M player benefits

 

Tax Budget Est before any trades or signings: $200M

 

The 5-6 DFAs opens up some slots for Rule 5 Protectees or eventual FA additions. Others may be traded or DFA'd to make more room.

 

Here is the list of eligible Rule 5 prospects for this coming winter:

(I removed players with no chance at protection)

 

Angel Bastardo

Allan Castro

Juan Chacon

Luis De La Rosa

Nick Decker

Shane Drohan

Juan Daniel Encarnación

Ryan Fernandez

Ryan Fitzgerald

Grant Gambrell

Jhostynxon Garcia

Wikelman Gonzalez

Bryan Gonzalez

Christian Koss

Chih-Jung Liu

Matthew Lugo

Eddinson Paulino

Luis Perales

Johnfrank Salazar

Stephen Scott

Nick Sogard

Jeremy Wu-Yelland

Ryan Zeferjahn

 

 

[sk7326]

We'll never know what might have been available for the $10M or so "left on the table," budget wise.

 

This is not meant as excuse-making, as I agree that more resources should have been focused on the rotation, but Bloom had to choose some areas to "gamble" on in-house solutions, so money could be spent on others. Some of those "gambles" seem to have paid off, so far, while 2 major areas were big misses.

 

SP: He actually missed, at least twice.

1. He swung and missed on the $10M/1 deal for Kluber.

2. He gambled a mix of Sale, Paxton, Houck, Whitlock, Pivetta, Bello, Crawford, Winckowski, Mate, Walter & Murphy could cobble together to fill the other 4 slots.

On the surface, it doesn't look like a wild swing and miss, but with the injury histories, it was a significant gamble that looks like a significant loss, unless pitchers return and lead us somewhere special.

 

SS: We've beaten this one to several deaths, already. The plan was to let Kike and Chang hold down the position until Mondesi (May?) then Story returned (August?) When Kike's D blew up from day one, then Chang went on the IL, the choice looked like an obvious blunder. We added Reyes, but then failed to play him, until Kike's horrific D finally was noticed by Cora. One could maybe argue the original plan was not so bad, if Bloom had only added someone like Iggy or played Reyes more. As it turned out, maybe we could have used Duvall's money or some of that $10M, I mentioned earlier, to boost the SS and or SP'er slots, but at the expense of other positions Bloom did choose to seriously focus resources on- all seemingly high need areas.

 

Pen: Our pen sucked, last year, and seemingly overperformed in 2021. Bloom threw a pretty big chunk of the winter budget on the pen

 

OF: Our OF was one of MLB's worst in 2022- both on D and O. Bloom spent a lot of the winter budget on Yoshida. He also signed Duvall to $7M/1. Had he relied on in-house solution, Duran, instead of signing Duvall, maybe SP & SS would have been better. That was pretty hard to predict, and none of us ever suggested Bloom not look for a CF'er. (Bloom also extended Kike in the summer at $10M/1. Of course, we view that as a failure now, and some thought so, at the time, including "Like I said" Red.)

 

DH: Turner was a golden choice for DH and back-up 3B, 1B and now 2B. End of discussion. Great signing.

 

Other areas Bloom let ride with in-house solutions worked much better than SS and SP.

 

1B: Many complained we started 2022 with Dalbec and Casas as our only real 1B options. Dalbec sucked and Casas got hurt.

We basically started with the same 1Bmen with Turner as insurance we really ended up not needed. Casas has been impressive.

 

C: Wong has been a very pleasant surprise. McGuire struggled, got hurt and has not gotten good results from the staff. I'd say Bloom did right, letting this position ride.

 

2B: This position has been a mixed bag, much like last year. No doubt, the .639 2B OPS has not been good. It was .724, last year, so this looks like a gamble that lost, too. 2B has been one of the most shared positions, this year:

191 PAs Arroyo

100 EValdez

59 Kike

29 Reyes

24 Turner

7 Chang

 

SP:

Bello doing well was a gamble that paid off.

Paxton was expected to miss time, early, but has done well.

Crawford has been impressive in limited duty as a SP'er and long man.

Winckowski has not been used as a SP'er but has done well in relief. (Murphy, too. Walter? OK.)

 

Sale had a nice 8 game run after a 3 start troubling start to 2023.

Houck did great the first time through a line-up but sucked afterwards.

Whitlock never got on track.

Mata was on the IL almost all year.

 

It seems many gambles were taken and probably many were needed, unless we chose to spend less on the OF and pen.

 

There are still 2 months left, so maybe something can be salvaged at 3-4 slots: SS, SP (1-2 slots) and 2B, but the final grade at all 3 will likely be bad.

9+ gambles seemed to pay off:

LF: Yoshida (many felt he was a gross overpay)

CF: Duran & Duvall (needs little explanation)

DH: Turner (WOW!)

1B: Casas (no longer a "suspect," but now "my boy.")

Closer: Jansen (What a difference a year makes at this slot.)

Set-Up: Martin (WOW!)

SP: Bello (WOW!)

RP/SP: Crawford (WOW!)

RP: Winckowski (WOW!)

Maybe RF: putting Dugo in RF FT.

OF depth: Refsnyder

 

Certainly we can see moves that failed, but I'm finding it hard to see the whole picture as being something looking net negative.

 

Really the big whiff was the SS thing. And from Cora's perspective - the big problem ultimately became the bat with Kike. The defense was poor - but you could almost live with that - the team knew it was bad defensively. But his dropoff offensively made sustaining the rest of it impossible.

 

Overall, the OF has been a plus considering the resources put into it. Yoshida has been a very pleasant surprise ... the ability for hitters to carry power from NPB to MLB was spotty so I understood the hesitation .. but he has delivered hard contact.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

A look at next year's budget and roster situation for Bloom, who will likely be GM, next year- like it or not.

 

Lux Tax Budget

29.1 Devers

25.6 Sale

23.3 Story

18.0 Masataka

16.0 Jansen

8.5 Martin

4.7 Whitlock

2.0 Refsnyder

125M Total

 

Options:

Turner: $13.4M player option/ $6.7M buyout: Project he takes buyout and will be a FA

Paxton: $13M x 2 yrs club option + performance bonuses based on GS in '23. Club accepts.

Kluber: $11M club option w no buyout. Sox decline option.

Joely: $4.25 club option or $500K buyout: Project club buys him out.

Bleier: $3.75 club option w $250K buyout. Project club buys him out.

Est Option Total $14M for Paxton (counting bonus)

 

Arbitration Estimates:

9.0 Verdugo (3rd arb of 3)

7.2 Pivetta (3 of 4)

5.0 Urias (3 of 4) May nontender (Project goes to arb)

3.0 Arroyo (3 of 3) May nontender (Project nontender)

2.0 McGuire (2 of 3)

1.0 Chang (2 of 3)

1.0 Schreiber (1 of 3)

0.8 Dalbec (1 of 3)

Arb Total $26M for 16 Players

 

$165M Total

 

24 Pre-Arb Returnees:

Houck

Crawford

Bello

Duran

Casas

Winckowski

Wong

Rafaela

Murphy

Walter

Bernardino

Robertson

Mills

Abreu

Hamilton

Kelly

EValdez

Mata

Reyes (DFA?)

Jacques (DFA)

Lovera (DFA)

Gudino (DFA)

Garza (DFA)

Ort (DFA)

 

Est. $17M for pre-arbs, 0-3 yr bonus pool and 40 man roster players in minors.

Est. $17M player benefits

 

Tax Budget Est before any trades or signings: $200M

 

The 5-6 DFAs opens up some slots for Rule 5 Protectees or eventual FA additions. Others may be traded or DFA'd to make more room.

 

Here is the list of eligible Rule 5 prospects for this coming winter:

(I removed players with no chance at protection)

 

Angel Bastardo

Allan Castro

Juan Chacon

Luis De La Rosa

Nick Decker

Shane Drohan

Juan Daniel Encarnación

Ryan Fernandez

Ryan Fitzgerald

Grant Gambrell

Jhostynxon Garcia

Wikelman Gonzalez

Bryan Gonzalez

Christian Koss

Chih-Jung Liu

Matthew Lugo

Eddinson Paulino

Luis Perales

Johnfrank Salazar

Stephen Scott

Nick Sogard

Jeremy Wu-Yelland

Ryan Zeferjahn

 

 

 

Question: If Drohan, Fernandez, Gambrel, Perales, Gonzalez, Bastardo -- among the best pitching prospects in the org -- all need spots on the 40... or risk getting picked by the Washingtons and Dombrowskis of the world -- then why didn't Bloom trade other surplus... like Paulino, Lugo, Scott... at the deadline?

 

On MLB.com's list of Red Sox prospects, Paulino is #9, Lugo #13. If we might lose guys like that in a few months, what harm would it be to swap them for even a rental to improve this year's club? For instance -- just as a numerical comp -- the O's got Jack Flaherty for their #14 and #16 prospects...

[Dipre]

Question: If Drohan, Fernandez, Gambrel, Perales, Gonzalez, Bastardo -- among the best pitching prospects in the org -- all need spots on the 40... or risk getting picked by the Washingtons and Dombrowskis of the world -- then why didn't Bloom trade other surplus... like Paulino, Lugo, Scott... at the deadline?

 

On MLB.com's list of Red Sox prospects, Paulino is #9, Lugo #13. If we might lose guys like that in a few months, what harm would it be to swap them for even a rental to improve this year's club? For instance -- just as a numerical comp -- the O's got Jack Flaherty for their #14 and #16 prospects...

 

Wat

[mvp 78]

Wat

 

Nobody is taking Lugo or Paulino in the Rule 5 draft.

 

The guys that could be taken this year are Bonaci, Ryan Fernandez and other relievers.

[moonslav59]

Question: If Drohan, Fernandez, Gambrel, Perales, Gonzalez, Bastardo -- among the best pitching prospects in the org -- all need spots on the 40... or risk getting picked by the Washingtons and Dombrowskis of the world -- then why didn't Bloom trade other surplus... like Paulino, Lugo, Scott... at the deadline?

 

On MLB.com's list of Red Sox prospects, Paulino is #9, Lugo #13. If we might lose guys like that in a few months, what harm would it be to swap them for even a rental to improve this year's club? For instance -- just as a numerical comp -- the O's got Jack Flaherty for their #14 and #16 prospects...

 

I don't see a big crunch.

 

Trades can be made, this winter, although trading borderline 40 man roster players is not easy in winter, due to other teams having crunches.

 

My list mentions "DFA" candidates, b ut to me, there are 3-5 more players, I wouldn't cry about being traded or DFA'd, too.

[mvp 78]

@bradfo

Per source Noah Song is back with Red Sox

[notin]

Question: If Drohan, Fernandez, Gambrel, Perales, Gonzalez, Bastardo -- among the best pitching prospects in the org -- all need spots on the 40... or risk getting picked by the Washingtons and Dombrowskis of the world -- then why didn't Bloom trade other surplus... like Paulino, Lugo, Scott... at the deadline?

 

On MLB.com's list of Red Sox prospects, Paulino is #9, Lugo #13. If we might lose guys like that in a few months, what harm would it be to swap them for even a rental to improve this year's club? For instance -- just as a numerical comp -- the O's got Jack Flaherty for their #14 and #16 prospects...

 

You are obsessed with the notion that Paulino is a highly sought-after trade commodity…

[Old Red]

@bradfo

Per source Noah Song is back with Red Sox

 

Deciding on what level of the farm system to send him

[Bellhorn04]

@bradfo

Per source Noah Song is back with Red Sox

 

Alright!

[mvp 78]

Deciding on what level of the farm system to send him

 

Should just send him to the FCL after a medical exam IMO.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

You are obsessed with the notion that Paulino is a highly sought-after trade commodity…

 

Nope. I was obsessed with trading him as one of the Sox' surplus middle infielders while he had a top-10-15 ranking...

 

Now that he's plummeted out of their prospects top 20, that opportunity is gone -- like an overrated 5'10, 165 middle infielder with a .240 batting average in high A.

 

Bloom replanted the farm, propagated cuttings, germinated flats in hoophouses. But if he doesn't start harvesting soon, no one's going to want overgrown and unruly vegetation, and they'll be no more room in rows for new seeds.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Arroyo has been DFA'd and Urias has been brought up.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Arroyo has been DFA'd and Urias has been brought up.

 

Urias will be playing 2nd base in tonight's game.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Urias will be playing 2nd base in tonight's game.

 

Oh yeah, Urias got me now

You got me so I can't sleep at night

Urias got me, Urias got me, Urias got me

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Oh yeah, Urias got me now

You got me so I can't sleep at night

Urias got me, Urias got me, Urias got me

 

The Kinks were great; Urias, not so much.

[Bellhorn04]

The Kinks were great; Urias, not so much.

 

Although it must be said, Urias probably has a better chance of catching up to a major league fastball than Ray Davies ever did.

[notin]

Nope. I was obsessed with trading him as one of the Sox' surplus middle infielders while he had a top-10-15 ranking...

 

Now that he's plummeted out of their prospects top 20, that opportunity is gone -- like an overrated 5'10, 165 middle infielder with a .240 batting average in high A.

 

Bloom replanted the farm, propagated cuttings, germinated flats in hoophouses. But if he doesn't start harvesting soon, no one's going to want overgrown and unruly vegetation, and they'll be no more room in rows for new seeds.

 

I don’t think his plummet occurred in the past week; he’s been struggling all year and that was on full view for every scout to see.

 

Also he’s in A ball. Most of the players dealt for SP in deadline deals were in AA or better.

[notin]

Arroyo has been DFA'd and Urias has been brought up.

 

Pablo Reyes survives another day…

[moonslav59]

@bradfo

Per source Noah Song is back with Red Sox

 

So, when Ward gets DFA'd and signs a minor league deal with us, will we hear some meas?

[Bellhorn04]

So, when Ward gets DFA'd and signs a minor league deal with us, will we hear some meas?

 

I think I already issued mine. That was mostly my old Red Sox superstitious-ness kicking in when I heard Dombrowski snatched him from us.

 

But I think Sox fans should be pretty happy we're going to get a chance to develop him.

[notin]

I think I already issued mine. That was mostly my old Red Sox superstitious-ness kicking in when I heard Dombrowski snatched him from us.

 

But I think Sox fans should be pretty happy we're going to get a chance to develop him.

 

 

Hopefully something comes from this, but I do doubt he gets added to the 40 man roster next year…