Fire Bloom .

[moonslav59]

Your assertions and those of the experts are perfectly sensible. Like I say, that's part of what bothers me!

 

We only have to spin the dial back two years to see how the Sox made it work with Whitlock. Instead of him being the difference in not making the playoffs, it was the other way about...

 

Anyway, it's just something half-interesting to jabber about.

 

Whitlock was ready to pitch.

 

He also had 209 IP in the minors, including 14 GS'd in AA just 2 years before being selected.

 

His readiness level was more of a known.

Edited February 28, 2023 by moonslav59

[notin]

Whitlock was ready to pitch

 

And presumably in pitching shape.

 

With Song, we’ve made a lot of the fact that he’s only thrown 17 IP in Rookie Ball. And that his entire career consists of facing only 65 hitters, of whom I’m willing to bet none of are currently in MLB and no more than 2 ever will be.

 

What hasn’t been mentioned is this also took place across SEVEN STARTS.

 

Now granted, Rookie Ball starting pitchers rarely go five innings. And while Song was averaging just over two, it certainly wasn’t for ineffectiveness.

 

But it does point he didn’t have the arm strength to pitch multiple innings 3 years ago, when he was fresh out of college after his stellar Navy career. Three years of not pitching later, it probably didn’t improve. And the task won’t be easier, as MLB hitters on average have better plate discipline than Rookie Ball teenagers, have the ability to foul off more pitches to stay alive, and, well, get more hits.

 

A deal or Song returns. No other option…

[Bellhorn04]

Whitlock was ready to pitch.

 

He also had 209 IP in the minors, including 14 GS'd in AA just 2 years before being selected.

 

His readiness level was more of a known.

 

It was "more known", yes, but very far from certain.

[moonslav59]

It was "more known", yes, but very far from certain.

 

As almost all Rule 5 picks are,

 

Song has a lot of potential, no doubt. He was viewed as one of the best pitchers in the draft, 4 years ago. Despite the fact that many top ranked pitchers don't pan out, many do.

 

Whenever a GM adds a player, other than by draft and IFA, where less information is available, they pretty much base it on the "knowns." It is very rare anyone is selected without even some AA action, and usually it's promising AA action. It's also very rare a player is selected, who has not played for 3+ years, and usually in those cases, it's a player who was proven before going out on an extended injury period.

 

I'm bummed we lost a promising pitcher from our system. It was a freaky confluence of happenings that has created this debate. I think this whole thing surprised even DD.

[Bellhorn04]

That feels like a dig…

 

It's not.

[Bellhorn04]

As almost all Rule 5 picks are,

 

Song has a lot of potential, no doubt. He was viewed as one of the best pitchers in the draft, 4 years ago. Despite the fact that many top ranked pitchers don't pan out, many do.

 

Whenever a GM adds a player, other than by draft and IFA, where less information is available, they pretty much base it on the "knowns." It is very rare anyone is selected without even some AA action, and usually it's promising AA action. It's also very rare a player is selected, who has not played for 3+ years, and usually in those cases, it's a player who was proven before going out on an extended injury period.

 

I'm bummed we lost a promising pitcher from our system. It was a freaky confluence of happenings that has created this debate. I think this whole thing surprised even DD.

 

The story is that DD laughed when Song's name was announced at the draft.

[moonslav59]

The story is that DD laughed when Song's name was announced at the draft.

 

I wonder at what.

[mvp 78]

The story is that DD laughed when Song's name was announced at the draft.

 

You have a link for that?

[Bellhorn04]

You have a link for that?

 

I have to amend - the article by Peter Abraham said DD was "smiling widely".

[Old Red]

I have to amend - the article by Peter Abraham said DD was "smiling widely".

 

Abraham said Both DD, and GM Fuld had smiles on their faces when the selection was made.

[moonslav59]

I have to amend - the article by Peter Abraham said DD was "smiling widely".

 

Maybe thinking, deja vu. I've drafted this guy, twice!

[Hugh2]

The thing about this whole Song situation is this. He wasn’t the first pick, when you think about how the rule 5 typically goes, what it’s there for, and the type of guy who gets picked there were several guys to protect above Song.

 

Such as Ward. Who really belongs in this conversation. Song wasn’t picked until he reached Philly, Ward was the #1 pick

[Hugh2]

Also, I think there’s a recency bias in Boston after plucking Whitlock. Whitlocks are rare, you don’t get them every year. It’s rather rare to get burned in the rule 5, but it does happen.

[Bellhorn04]

The thing about this whole Song situation is this. He wasn’t the first pick, when you think about how the rule 5 typically goes, what it’s there for, and the type of guy who gets picked there were several guys to protect above Song.

 

Such as Ward. Who really belongs in this conversation. Song wasn’t picked until he reached Philly, Ward was the #1 pick

 

We've been working Ward into the conversation.

[Bellhorn04]

Also, I think there’s a recency bias in Boston after plucking Whitlock. Whitlocks are rare, you don’t get them every year. It’s rather rare to get burned in the rule 5, but it does happen.

 

It's a fair point about recency bias. But maybe teams are doing more homework on this now, too.

[Hugh2]

It's a fair point about recency bias. But maybe teams are doing more homework on this now, too.

 

Well Whitlock is by far the greatest rule 5 pick in recent years that I can remember. Would be nice to see a list of some of the most valuable picks the past 10-15-20 years.

[mvp 78]

Abraham said Both DD, and GM Fuld had smiles on their faces when the selection was made.

 

Oh no! Not that!

 

Pete also had to walk back his initial tweets about how much of an embarrassment it was for Song to be headed to Phillies camp.

[mvp 78]

Well Whitlock is by far the greatest rule 5 pick in recent years that I can remember. Would be nice to see a list of some of the most valuable picks the past 10-15-20 years.

 

2021:

Whitlock

Baddoo

2020:

Megill

2019:

Jordan Romano, but returned

2018:

Nestor Cortes Jr, but returned

2017:

Torrens

Santander

2016:

Ji-man Choi

2015:

Odubel Herrera

Delino Deshields Jr

2014:

Kahnle

2013:

Fields

Pressly

Inciarte, but returned

2012:

Marwin Gonzalez

2011:

nothing

2010:

nothing

2009:

Everth Cabrera

O'Day

Nova, but returned

2008:

Evan Meek

RA Dickey

2007:

Soria

Josh Hamilton

Alfredo Simon

2006:

Uggla

2005:

Victorino

2004:

Jose Bautista

Jason Grilli

2003:

Javier Lopez

Victorino

[moonslav59]

It's a fair point about recency bias. But maybe teams are doing more homework on this now, too.

 

Looking at MVP’S list, it looks like “more homework” was done years ago.

[notin]

Looking at MVP’S list, it looks like “more homework” was done years ago.

 

Or more homework is done today in determining who to protect…

[moonslav59]

Or more homework is done today in determining who to protect…

 

I thought about that after posting.

 

GMs seeing guys like Vic taken, must have sharpened up.

 

I still think no amount of homework or data collecting would have convinced any team, other than maybe Philly to decide to protect Song.

 

The whole place on the 40, then military exemption list is still a bit confusing, to me, and maybe they messed up, there, but I'm not so sure.

[Bellhorn04]

I still think no amount of homework or data collecting would have convinced any team, other than maybe Philly to decide to protect Song.

 

No, there's certainly no data to support protecting Song. A 3 year absence sweeps data out the window.

[moonslav59]

No, there's certainly no data to support protecting Song. A 3 year absence sweeps data out the window.

 

I doubt a single person in any organization, except maybe Philly would have said "Protect him." I'm not even sure had he been in the Philly system, they'd have protected him.

[Bellhorn04]

I doubt a single person in any organization, except maybe Philly would have said "Protect him." I'm not even sure had he been in the Philly system, they'd have protected him.

 

Even a really s***** team with no pitching prospects?

[Bellhorn04]

What Dombrowski did is called "thinking outside the box", IMHO. There's a reason it's called that.

[moonslav59]

Even a really s***** team with no pitching prospects?

 

That is my strong belief, yes.

 

Nobody thought he'd even be eligible.

 

Most of the teams that have no pitching, probably think $100K is a lot to gamble.

[moonslav59]

What Dombrowski did is called "thinking outside the box", IMHO. There's a reason it's called that.

 

Yup, and sometimes that kind of thinking is highly rewarded.

[notin]

I thought about that after posting.

 

GMs seeing guys like Vic taken, must have sharpened up.

 

I still think no amount of homework or data collecting would have convinced any team, other than maybe Philly to decide to protect Song.

 

The whole place on the 40, then military exemption list is still a bit confusing, to me, and maybe they messed up, there, but I'm not so sure.

 

The Sox didn’t mess up with Song. (Ward? That’s another matter.) Players in A ball are almost never selected, so players who were in Rookie Ball 3 years ago and haven’t played since should be the safest.

 

Philly played a low risk long shot that probably (ok, definitely) cost them Erik Miller. But there’s a chance Miller doesn’t represent a noticeable loss either.

 

No one thinks Song will straight up stick, so one of my two oft-mentioned options will happen…

[moonslav59]

The Sox didn’t mess up with Song. (Ward? That’s another matter.) Players in A ball are almost never selected, so players who were in Rookie Ball 3 years ago and haven’t played since should be the safest.

 

Philly played a low risk long shot that probably (ok, definitely) cost them Erik Miller. But there’s a chance Miller doesn’t represent a noticeable loss either.

 

No one thinks Song will straight up stick, so one of my two oft-mentioned options will happen…

 

If it is true they could have added Song to the 40 and immediately put him on the military exemption list, or whatever it is called, and replaced him with Ward or Ort or whoever, why not do that? He stays on the list until he is eligible, and we kick the can down the road on having to chose or not. If all this could have been done, I can see calling it a mess-up.

 

I'm not sure about all these rules and details, though.

[Bellhorn04]

That is my strong belief, yes.

 

Nobody thought he'd even be eligible.

 

Most of the teams that have no pitching, probably think $100K is a lot to gamble.

 

I thought the question is which teams would protect him, not which would select him.

 

You're saying no teams would protect him, even if they had no other pitching prospects.