Fire Bloom .

[Hugh2]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Bloom seems to be following the Red Sox tradition of focusing on position players in the draft and IFA signings.

 

Pretty much. I really wish they could draft and develop pitchers better but if you are better at position players then I get it. You can always trade from surplus 4 deficit.

 

2022: first pitcher was Noah Dean 5th round.

2021: first pitcher taken was Elmer Rodriguez Cruz in the 4th round

2020: first pitcher taken was Shane Drohan in the 5th round. It's worth noting there were only 5 rounds this year.

 

The international pool is more of the same.

 

The Sox do have a lot of intriguing arms in the system, and some of these guys probably have MLB careers. But the only pitcher they had in their system who looked poised to be an impactful starting pitcher has just graduated the system. Bryan Bello.

[Bellhorn04]

And whether he's right is debatable, but the dearth of pitching prospects is exactly why Keith Law rated our system so low.

[Bellhorn04]

And...the Mariners' trade for Castillo gives you an idea of the hefty package you have to give to get a good starter from another team.

[Old Red]

We'll never know for sure, of course, but you can certainly argue that without Lackey and Price, our last title would be in 2007.

 

Hypothetically, if we did know this was true, would anyone want to undo those signings?

 

Substitute Lester for Price, and 2018 I believe would still have been won.

[Bellhorn04]

Substitute Lester for Price, and 2018 I believe would still have been won.

 

But Porcello, who we basically got for Lester, also pitched well in the 2018 postseason, including in relief.

 

I wouldn't undo a thing. Not that it's an actual option LOL

[moonslav59]

We'll never know for sure, of course, but you can certainly argue that without Lackey and Price, our last title would be in 2007.

 

Hypothetically, if we did know this was true, would anyone want to undo those signings?

 

I would on Price. Lackey is a close call, only because he missed a season and had a really bad one, too.

[moonslav59]

And...the Mariners' trade for Castillo gives you an idea of the hefty package you have to give to get a good starter from another team.

 

IMO, the trade or the extension/signing was fine, but both makes it tip to the no side.

 

Maybe trading for someone just about to become an ace (and his team does not know it, yet) is the best way, but that involves some luck or extremely good scouting.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I would on Price. Lackey is a close call, only because he missed a season and had a really bad one, too.

 

Lackey's Boston contract had a clause that he agreed to for a season of minimum wage, if he missed an entire year due to injury. But on the verge of that reality, the Red Sox realized what a joy his sourpuss would be that last year, and dumped him for the corpse of Allen Craig, and the unharnessed arm of Joe Kelly.

 

Kelly, of course, was lights out in the '18 postseason -- so there's a chance the Sox don't win in '13 or '18 without signing Lackey.

[Bellhorn04]

I would on Price.

 

You're a brave pilot of the Way Back Machine.

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe trading for someone just about to become an ace (and his team does not know it, yet) is the best way, but that involves some luck or extremely good scouting.

 

And how many times have the Red Sox pulled off that fabulous feat?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

And how many times have the Red Sox pulled off that fabulous feat?

 

The only one remotely close is Porcello, based entirely on being voted the Cy Young in 2016. But that was also the year Dombro gave Price the most dough ever, specifically to be the ace. Oh, and Steven Wright made the All-Star team that summer.

 

A lot of fans, however, have no idea that Porcello was the top winner on the staff of the greatest team in Red Sox history two years later...

[moonslav59]

Who is open to trading an ace?

 

According to BTV, here are the top value pitchers where years and salary count a lot:

 

Manoah 150

Alcantara 144

McClanahan 128

 

Kirby 93

F Valdez 86

Webb 82

Burnes 78

Cease 76

Gilbert 73

Javier 67

Fried 66

Peralta 64

Gallen 63

Bieber 61

Ottani 61

 

Singer 52

Woodruff 51

Lodolo 49

McKenzie 48

Rasmussen 47

L Garcia 46

Saurez 46

Gonsolin 45

Greene 44

Detmers 42

J Ryan & Sandoval 41

Skubai 40

P Lopez 39

T Rogers 37

D May 36

Urias & Gausman 35

Whitlock 34

Bello 33

Nola, Springs & Ashby 33

 

Blue= listed as "Medium" trade availability

 

It might take Mayer (65.1) to get someone like Singer. I doubt we'd get Javier straight up for Mayer.

 

BTV accepts Casas + Romero & Murphy for Singer.

 

Also...

 

Houck, Rafaela, Romero & Yorke for Singer

 

Do you do that?

 

Is Singer even an ace?

 

[Hugh2]

And whether he's right is debatable, but the dearth of pitching prospects is exactly why Keith Law rated our system so low.

 

That might be part of it but the weird thing is that Keith Law rated our system even lower than he did last year, when the consensus everywhere else in baseball is that the Sox system got much better. So, without getting into it something is up with his rankings.

 

I think you are right though, AND I also think Law heavily weighs proximity to the majors. Mayer and Bleis are further away.

[Hugh2]

Think about how different things could have been if the Sox hit on Sale and he stayed healthy. They'd have that guy, and better results may have led to an increased interest in investing in this team leading them to actually sign another ACE.

 

In that permutation of the universe in some other world Maybe A Dominant Chris Sale is at the top of the rotation alongside Scherzer, Verlander or DeGrome this year. Who knows.

 

There's nothing wrong with not being able to develop an ACE if you could at least develop several home grown #3's. THen you can fill in, not developing anything for a long time really stings.

[mvp 78]

Pretty much. I really wish they could draft and develop pitchers better but if you are better at position players then I get it. You can always trade from surplus 4 deficit.

 

2022: first pitcher was Noah Dean 5th round.

2021: first pitcher taken was Elmer Rodriguez Cruz in the 4th round

2020: first pitcher taken was Shane Drohan in the 5th round. It's worth noting there were only 5 rounds this year.

 

The international pool is more of the same.

 

The Sox do have a lot of intriguing arms in the system, and some of these guys probably have MLB careers. But the only pitcher they had in their system who looked poised to be an impactful starting pitcher has just graduated the system. Bryan Bello.

 

Correction for 2022: 3rd Round Dalton Rogers SP

Correction for 2020: 4th Round Jeremy Wu-Yellend SP

[sk7326]

That might be part of it but the weird thing is that Keith Law rated our system even lower than he did last year, when the consensus everywhere else in baseball is that the Sox system got much better. So, without getting into it something is up with his rankings.

 

I think you are right though, AND I also think Law heavily weighs proximity to the majors. Mayer and Bleis are further away.

 

He pretty clearly explained his view - the position player prospects are pretty good, the pitching is far less certain. And as ESPN's prospects guy (Kiley McDaniel) noted - after Mayer and Casas, most of the top prospects in the org last season had tough seasons.

 

Basically - if one or two of these pitchers with a wide range of outcomes raises their likelihood to be a big league starter, things will really start looking up.

 

If Sale stayed healthy this would all look so much better - that said, the Sale extension that Dombrowski and ownership signed was a ticking time bomb ex ante.

[sk7326]

Correction for 2022: 3rd Round Dalton Rogers SP

Correction for 2020: 4th Round Jeremy Wu-Yellend SP

 

The one thing Dombrowski and Bloom have done is just get more arms in the system. Even if there is high reliever risk across the board, the state of "guys who can be big league somethings" is better than it has been in a while.

[moonslav59]

We do need to develop an ace every now and again. Teams like Milwaukee, Miami and Astros, among others seem to have homegrown, multiple ace-types, non-stop.

 

It doesn't seem like we've shaken up our pipeline system in years, so I'm not sure we can realistically expect one, anytime soon.

 

That leaves trading young everyday players for an ace- like we did with HRam and Moncada or rolling the dice on a FA, where the odds are almost like needing snake eyes to win.

 

Scouting other teams' farm and MLB systems very well is one way to get an ace before they become one. That's not easy to do.

 

Do we need a wholesale change in our scouting and developing system or maybe just add some pitching experts to it?

 

What's a legit plan to get us one?

[mvp 78]

Think about how different things could have been if the Sox hit on Sale and he stayed healthy. They'd have that guy, and better results may have led to an increased interest in investing in this team leading them to actually sign another ACE.

 

In that permutation of the universe in some other world Maybe A Dominant Chris Sale is at the top of the rotation alongside Scherzer, Verlander or DeGrome this year. Who knows.

 

There's nothing wrong with not being able to develop an ACE if you could at least develop several home grown #3's. THen you can fill in, not developing anything for a long time really stings.

 

Sox really haven't had a decent pitching pipeline since the late 00's with Bard/Paplebon/Lester/Buchholz/Masterson/Kelly/Bowden.

[mvp 78]

The one thing Dombrowski and Bloom have done is just get more arms in the system. Even if there is high reliever risk across the board, the state of "guys who can be big league somethings" is better than it has been in a while.

 

I think there are a lot of arms with potential in the upper minors right now. One or two of them need to take that next step.

[sk7326]

We do need to develop an ace every now and again. Teams like Milwaukee, Miami and Astros, among others seem to have homegrown, multiple ace-types, non-stop.

 

It doesn't seem like we've shaken up our pipeline system in years, so I'm not sure we can realistically expect one, anytime soon.

 

That leaves trading young everyday players for an ace- like we did with HRam and Moncada or rolling the dice on a FA, where the odds are almost like needing snake eyes to win.

 

Scouting other teams' farm and MLB systems very well is one way to get an ace before they become one. That's not easy to do.

 

Do we need a wholesale change in our scouting and developing system or maybe just add some pitching experts to it?

 

What's a legit plan to get us one?

 

One thing Tampa does is that it has the largest pro scouting operation in the sport. That is part of it.

 

Another thing is creating a development specialty. You look at Cleveland - who seems to be spitting out one quality arm after another. There, they have largely been drafting college starters with good command/control and develop the additional velocity and stuff.

 

A factor in the Sox' defense here has also been that where they have drafted historically (mostly) you are left with high schoolers for the quality upside - but high school pitching is simply THE most volatile stock of all in amateurland.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Scouting other teams' farm and MLB systems very well is one way to get an ace before they become one. That's not easy to do.

 

Do we need a wholesale change in our scouting and developing system or maybe just add some pitching experts to it?

 

What's a legit plan to get us one?

 

How about scouting other teams' farm system for scouts and developmental peeps?

 

Do you think Tito would recommend Boston as an upgrade relocation to a few of his pitching pipeline gurus?

[mvp 78]

We do need to develop an ace every now and again. Teams like Milwaukee, Miami and Astros, among others seem to have homegrown, multiple ace-types, non-stop.

 

It doesn't seem like we've shaken up our pipeline system in years, so I'm not sure we can realistically expect one, anytime soon.

 

That leaves trading young everyday players for an ace- like we did with HRam and Moncada or rolling the dice on a FA, where the odds are almost like needing snake eyes to win.

 

Scouting other teams' farm and MLB systems very well is one way to get an ace before they become one. That's not easy to do.

 

Do we need a wholesale change in our scouting and developing system or maybe just add some pitching experts to it?

 

What's a legit plan to get us one?

 

Is it scouting? Is it development? Is it bad luck?

 

Who are the upper echelon guys they have had in recent memory?

 

Groome - TJS

Song - Military Service

Mata - TJS

Espinoza - Traded/TJS

Kopech - Traded

[Bellhorn04]

One thing Tampa does is that it has the largest pro scouting operation in the sport. That is part of it.

 

It seems a little ironic or something that one of the most limited franchises money-wise can say that...

[sk7326]

Now, we do see things that Bloom wants to do in how he has drafted ... there are a lot of high contact middle of the diamond sorts, with the idea that the team can coach them up on finding power. (the Dodgers do this too - of course the Dodgers are the large market fever dream of what the Rays do)

[sk7326]

It seems a little ironic or something that one of the most limited franchises money-wise can say that...

 

Well, putting their limitations where the ROI can be the highest. Scouts are cheap, relatively speaking.

[sk7326]

Is it scouting? Is it development? Is it bad luck?

 

Who are the upper echelon guys they have had in recent memory?

 

Groome - TJS

Song - Military Service

Mata - TJS

Espinoza - Traded/TJS

Kopech - Traded

 

Could argue bad luck ... the TJS cases were all signed out of high school (or equivalent) ... high school pitching can be scary that way (obviously so can college pitchers - but the extra 3-4 years of physical development matter a lot from a probability perspective)

[moonslav59]

How about scouting other teams' farm system for scouts and developmental peeps?

 

Do you think Tito would recommend Boston as an upgrade relocation to a few of his pitching pipeline gurus?

 

I had hopes Bloom would bring in some Rays personnel.

[moonslav59]

Is it scouting? Is it development? Is it bad luck?

 

Who are the upper echelon guys they have had in recent memory?

 

Groome - TJS

Song - Military Service

Mata - TJS

Espinoza - Traded/TJS

Kopech - Traded

 

Had no injuries or other diversions took place, how many of these guys look like "aces?"

 

Would any have become an ace had they been in another system?

 

If the answer is yes, we need serious changes made, and quickly.

[harmony]

IMO, the trade or the extension/signing was fine, but both makes it tip to the no side.

Boston and Seattle were situated much differently on July 30 when the Mariners traded Noelvi Marte, Edwin Arroyo, Andrew Moore and Levi Stoudt to the Reds for righthander Luis Castillo.

 

At the time the Mariners had the league's fourth-best record at 54-47 in a quest for their first postseason bid since 2002. The Red Sox had the ninth-best record at 50-51.

 

This poster thought the Mariners would need to surrender Marte or Arroyo for Castillo and was surprised when both left in the deal. However, the Seattle farm system, which entered the 2022 season ranked among the best in baseball, had middle-infield depth that the Boston system lacked. The Mariners are high on shortstops Cole Young, Michael Arroyo and Axel Sanchez, not to mention Felnin Celesten, the second-ranked international prospect whom the M's signed last month. Those prospects may be distant but 28-year-old shortstop J.P. Crawford is signed through 2026.

 

Any long-term contract carries risks but the five-year, $110 million extension for Castillo stacks up well against the free agent contracts of starters Chris Bassitt, Taijuan Walker and James Taillon.