Fire Bloom .

[mvp 78]

Had no injuries or other diversions took place, how many of these guys look like "aces?"

 

Would any have become an ace had they been in another system?

 

If the answer is yes, we need serious changes made, and quickly.

 

Groome was the best pitcher in his class. Song was lights out in professional debut and only dropped due to the military service. Mata had an explosive arm prior to the injury. Espinoza was being compared to PEDRO. Kopech was throwing 100mph with a wipeout slider.

 

I'm not sure any of their fates would have changed if they started off in another org.

[sk7326]

Groome was the best pitcher in his class. Song was lights out in professional debut and only dropped due to the military service. Mata had an explosive arm prior to the injury. Espinoza was being compared to PEDRO. Kopech was throwing 100mph with a wipeout slider.

 

I'm not sure any of their fates would have changed if they started off in another org.

 

This. You can't ask an org to NOT sign teenaged pitching prospects - you go where the talent is - but this is the downside risk, especially if you build a lot of the plane with it.

[mvp 78]

This. You can't ask an org to NOT sign teenaged pitching prospects - you go where the talent is - but this is the downside risk, especially if you build a lot of the plane with it.

 

Keith Law would love it if we loaded up on teenage arms every year. However, it would make this system much more volatile. I think Bloom's plan is building a strong system and then use his assets to deal for arms when the team is ready. Right now, the prospects are too far away to provide much value in deals. Teams want AA and above.

[notin]

Keith Law would love it if we loaded up on teenage arms every year. However, it would make this system much more volatile. I think Bloom's plan is building a strong system and then use his assets to deal for arms when the team is ready. Right now, the prospects are too far away to provide much value in deals. Teams want AA and above.

 

 

This dawned on me not too long ago.

 

Pitching prospects just don’t pan out at a greater rate than position prospects. If the goal is to build a farm system rife with MLB talent, the easiest, safest and fastest way is to focus on position players and their lower attrition rate…

[Bellhorn04]

This dawned on me not too long ago.

 

Pitching prospects just don’t pan out at a greater rate than position prospects. If the goal is to build a farm system rife with MLB talent, the easiest, safest and fastest way is to focus on position players and their lower attrition rate…

 

"Rife" is such an odd word.

[sk7326]

This dawned on me not too long ago.

 

Pitching prospects just don’t pan out at a greater rate than position prospects. If the goal is to build a farm system rife with MLB talent, the easiest, safest and fastest way is to focus on position players and their lower attrition rate…

 

This is true - but pitching is also so important that you kind of can't avoid it. Now - high school pitching is far and away the riskiest category of amateur ... I think folks like Law and a couple others I've read are extremely skeptical at this point of using first round picks on them. Really what you'd like is to figure out how to develop college pitching like Cleveland has. The mystery of how to nurture arms through 18-22 (or heck, most any other age too) has clearly not been cracked. Digression: Jeff Passan's The Arm is a good read on this.

[mvp 78]

This dawned on me not too long ago.

 

Pitching prospects just don’t pan out at a greater rate than position prospects. If the goal is to build a farm system rife with MLB talent, the easiest, safest and fastest way is to focus on position players and their lower attrition rate…

 

The only thing I worry about is that I've heard a lot about "the strength of the farm system is in the lower levels" over the years. It never seems to materialize past that point.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Noah Song could still be an ace, even if he never throws another pitch. It all depends on how many balloons he gets to shoot down. The trend is to pop them over water, some of which is the Navy's domain.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The only thing I worry about is that I've heard a lot about "the strength of the farm system is in the lower levels" over the years. It never seems to materialize past that point.

 

It's hard to grow good crops in mountainous regions. But I do recommend Swiss Chard.

[mvp 78]

Noah Song could still be an ace, even if he never throws another pitch. It all depends on how many balloons he gets to shoot down. The trend is to pop them over water, some of which is the Navy's domain.

 

He's too tall to actually be a pilot from what I've heard.

[harmony]

Groome was the best pitcher in his class. Song was lights out in professional debut and only dropped due to the military service. Mata had an explosive arm prior to the injury. Espinoza was being compared to PEDRO. Kopech was throwing 100mph with a wipeout slider.

 

I'm not sure any of their fates would have changed if they started off in another org.

FWIW Jay Groome was the seventh pitcher taken in the June 2016 draft:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?year_ID=2016&draft_round=1&draft_type=junreg&query_type=year_round

 

Groome was the fifth high school pitcher taken in that draft (behind Ian Anderson, Riley Pint, Braxton Garrett and Matt Manning). Groome and Pint have yet to make MLB debuts.

[mvp 78]

FWIW Jay Groome was the seventh pitcher taken in the June 2016 draft:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?year_ID=2016&draft_round=1&draft_type=junreg&query_type=year_round

 

Groome was the fifth high school pitcher taken in that draft (behind Ian Anderson, Riley Pint, Braxton Garrett and Matt Manning). Groome and Pint have yet to make MLB debuts.

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2637657-jason-groome-prospect-profile-for-red-soxs-1st-round-pick

 

When Baseball America released its first top-100 draft prospects list on March 10, Jason Groome was perched atop those rankings in the No. 1 spot.

 

Here's what MLB.com's Prospect Watch had to say about Groome:

 

Groome has everything to be a top-of-the-rotation left-handed starting pitcher, from his 6-foot-6 frame to the potential to have three above-average to plus offerings. The fastball is already there, up to 96 mph and sitting 92-93 mph over the summer, and in the 90-94 mph range in the early stages of the spring.

 

It seems every projectable left-hander with a good curveball draws comparisons to Kershaw, but Groome actually has the complete package to come close to delivering on that high praise.

 

Projection: No. 2 starter with ace upside

[mvp 78]

He was selected 12th overall by the Boston Red Sox in the draft, falling in part due to a reported signing bonus demand of $4 million and because of his change in college commitment; teams had signability concerns. The Red Sox and Groome agreed to a $3.65 million signing bonus.

[harmony]

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2637657-jason-groome-prospect-profile-for-red-soxs-1st-round-pick

 

When Baseball America released its first top-100 draft prospects list on March 10, Jason Groome was perched atop those rankings in the No. 1 spot.

 

Here's what MLB.com's Prospect Watch had to say about Groome:

 

Groome has everything to be a top-of-the-rotation left-handed starting pitcher, from his 6-foot-6 frame to the potential to have three above-average to plus offerings. The fastball is already there, up to 96 mph and sitting 92-93 mph over the summer, and in the 90-94 mph range in the early stages of the spring.

 

It seems every projectable left-hander with a good curveball draws comparisons to Kershaw, but Groome actually has the complete package to come close to delivering on that high praise.

 

Projection: No. 2 starter with ace upside

As the linked article continues: "He continued to impress scouts upon returning to the mound, but his standing as the consensus No. 1 prospect was gone, and some scouts began to question his elite standing."

 

Groome may be running out of time to live up to the early hype as the lefthander approaches his 25th birthday in August.

[moonslav59]

As the linked article continues: "He continued to impress scouts upon returning to the mound, but his standing as the consensus No. 1 prospect was gone, and some scouts began to question his elite standing."

 

Groome may be running out of time to live up to the early hype as the lefthander approaches his 25th birthday in August.

 

You mean MVP was cherry-picking quotes?

[harmony]

You mean MVP was cherry-picking quotes?

mvp 78 remains a valued contributor.

[mvp 78]

I summarized the article fine enough. The conclusion was Groome had been a consensus top pick in the draft at one point and was seen as a top of the rotation starter similar to Kershaw.

 

Groome didn't fall due to his talent as harmony's first post initially suggested. He fell due to "character" and "signability" as the agent wanted a 4M bonus and his recent de-commitment from Vandy to Chipola which would allow him to re-enter the draft a year earlier if he didn't come to an agreement the team that drafted him.

[mvp 78]

mvp 78 remains a valued contributor.

 

Very debatable.

[sk7326]

FWIW Jay Groome was the seventh pitcher taken in the June 2016 draft:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?year_ID=2016&draft_round=1&draft_type=junreg&query_type=year_round

 

Groome was the fifth high school pitcher taken in that draft (behind Ian Anderson, Riley Pint, Braxton Garrett and Matt Manning). Groome and Pint have yet to make MLB debuts.

 

Groome fell entirely because of signability.

[moonslav59]

[/b]=sk7326;1520054]Groome fell entirely because of signability.

 

...and he never got back up.

[harmony]

Groome fell entirely because of signability.

Another account, this time from NESN:

MLB Pipeline had Groome as its No. 1 prospect in the 2016 draft, suggesting the high school hurler had “everything to be a top-of-the-rotation left-handed starting pitcher.” He wound up slipping to the Red Sox at No. 12 overall, however, thanks in large to signability and makeup concerns.

 

There’s always risk associated with drafting high school pitchers, and Groome, who returned to Barnegat High School in New Jersey for his senior season after transferring to IMG Academy in Florida for his junior season, was a particularly precarious pick. Not only were there character questions surrounding Groome, who had been suspended for what was deemed an improper transfer and who had changed his commitment from Vanderbilt to Chipola College. There also were pre-draft reports linking Groome to the San Diego Padres, who owned the 24th and 25th picks.

https://nesn.com/2021/03/red-sox-prospects-jay-groome-scouting-report-outlook-2021/

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Another account, this time from NESN:

 

https://nesn.com/2021/03/red-sox-prospects-jay-groome-scouting-report-outlook-2021/

 

Make-up concerns? Don't leave us hanging -- how about a little elaboration: was it his choice of color or was he just bad at applying it.

 

Nobody wants eye-black smeared down to their chins... well, except my son's Little League team with their warpaint.

[moonslav59]

Could argue bad luck ... the TJS cases were all signed out of high school (or equivalent) ... high school pitching can be scary that way (obviously so can college pitchers - but the extra 3-4 years of physical development matter a lot from a probability perspective)

 

It does look like bad luck was a factor for a few of our better looking pitcher prospects, but every team has a list of promising pitchers that got hurt or had something happen to keep them from shining.

 

I'm hopeful on a couple of our current pitchers, and Kopech may still rise to a high level.

 

The point still stands: we have gone too long, whether it be due to bad luck, bad picks, bad development of a little of each.

 

We need to turn it around. Maybe new personnel on the player scouting and development staff is called for, but who knows?

 

[moonslav59]

Is it scouting? Is it development? Is it bad luck?

 

Who are the upper echelon guys they have had in recent memory?

 

Groome - TJS

Song - Military Service

Mata - TJS

Espinoza - Traded/TJS

Kopech - Traded

 

Enlightening list when paired with their results.

 

What's the chances anyone else joins Mata on this list?

 

Bello

Walter

Perales

Wikelman

Rodriguez-Cruz

Paez

 

[mvp 78]

Make-up concerns? Don't leave us hanging -- how about a little elaboration: was it his choice of color or was he just bad at applying it.

 

Nobody wants eye-black smeared down to their chins... well, except my son's Little League team with their warpaint.

 

The makeup concerns were because of his father.

[mvp 78]

Enlightening list when paired with their results.

 

What's the chances anyone else joins Mata on this list?

 

Bello

Walter

Perales

Wikelman

Rodriguez-Cruz

Paez

 

 

Mata was much higher ranked than everyone on that list but Bello. Bello is the only decent comp. However, I don't think people see Bello as having top of the rotation profile. He's probably a 3? Maybe he's a 2 if everything breaks right? IDK. Mata just showed a lot more potential at an earlier age. Bello just popped recently.

 

Perales is interesting, but has been outright dismissed by a lot of national guys as he just hasn't been healthy.

[moonslav59]

Mata was much higher ranked than everyone on that list but Bello. Bello is the only decent comp. However, I don't think people see Bello as having top of the rotation profile. He's probably a 3? Maybe he's a 2 if everything breaks right? IDK. Mata just showed a lot more potential at an earlier age. Bello just popped recently.

 

Perales is interesting, but has been outright dismissed by a lot of national guys as he just hasn't been healthy.

 

Agreed.

 

There is no way Walter ever becomes an ace. He's 26, already.

 

Some of the others are young enough to still show a stark improvement. For now, it's Mata & Bello.

 

Whitlock was not really a product of our farm.

 

Houck seems best suited for the pen.

 

It is nice to have these 4 young pitchers at the ML level or ready for it in Mata's case.

 

I'm not sure when the last time we had 4 like these ones.

[sk7326]

Agreed.

 

There is no way Walter ever becomes an ace. He's 26, already.

 

Some of the others are young enough to still show a stark improvement. For now, it's Mata & Bello.

 

Whitlock was not really a product of our farm.

 

Houck seems best suited for the pen.

 

It is nice to have these 4 young pitchers at the ML level or ready for it in Mata's case.

 

I'm not sure when the last time we had 4 like these ones.

 

Sure - that said Whitlock was a triumph of pro scouting!

[moonslav59]

Pitcher Ages

23 Bello, Mata

25 Wink, Murphy

26 Whitlock, Houck, Crawford, Walter

27 Kelly

28 Schreiber, Mills

29

Just turned 30: Pivetta

 

Prospects

19 Perales, E R-C

20 Wikelman

22 Guerrero

24 Fernandez, Drohan

[notin]

Agreed.

 

There is no way Walter ever becomes an ace. He's 26, already.

 

Some of the others are young enough to still show a stark improvement. For now, it's Mata & Bello.

 

Whitlock was not really a product of our farm.

 

Houck seems best suited for the pen.

 

It is nice to have these 4 young pitchers at the ML level or ready for it in Mata's case.

 

I'm not sure when the last time we had 4 like these ones.

 

I’d say it’s extremely unlikely Walter becomes an ace, but not impossible. Both Corey Kluber and John Means were extremely unimpressive through age 26. And there are probably others…