Suzuki vs Story - Early Returns on Investment

[vjcsmoke]

To sum up the Red Sox had a big choice in the offseason. They chose to trade Hunter Renfrow for Jackie Bradley Junior. So it was obvious we needed a replacement for Renfrow. We also let Kyle Schwarber go.

 

Instead of going after 27 year old japanese phenom OF Seiya Suzuki who signed a 5 year/85m deal with the Cubs the Red Sox spent nearly double the money to sign 29 year old IF Trevor Story to a 6 year 140m dollar contract.

 

How are they doing so far?

 

18 games in, Seiya Suzuki is who we thought he was - batting .333 with 4 homeruns, a .458 obp, a .632 SLG, and over 1.09 OPS. In other words he's a star slugging outfielder.

 

Oh but how has Trevor Story fared for the Red Sox, surely he has justified costing nearly double the money to play a position where we already have Xander Bogaerts?

 

14 games in, Trevor Story is batting .236, with 0 homeruns, a .311 OBP, .309 SLG, and .621 OPS.

 

In other words we paid double the money and got 60% the production out of Trevor Story.

 

Meanwhile, you remember that Hunter Renfrow flip for JBJ? How is he doing this year?

 

Oh kind of as expected:

 

18 games in Jackie Bradley Jr is batting .173, with 0 homeruns, a .273 OBP, and .250 SLG, with a whopping .521 OPS.

 

That's right, our two big acquisitions of the offseason are putting up OPS of .621 and .521 respectively. That's not just mediocre or below par, that's downright terrible.

 

These two moves alone make Bloom look like a fool. Especially considering what we missed out on in the free agent market.

 

The Trevor Story signing looks to be a blunder on par or worse than Pablo Sandoval, considering the contract length and amount 6/140 vs 5/95 and the additional opportunity cost on missing out on Suzuki.

 

I don't know about you but GM's have been fired for lesser mistakes. Chaim Bloom should be in the hot seat. And until he fixes his mistakes, the Red Sox will have to live with them for a long time to come.

[Bellhorn04]

To sum up the Red Sox had a big choice in the offseason. They chose to trade Hunter Renfrow for Jackie Bradley Junior. So it was obvious we needed a replacement for Renfrow. We also let Kyle Schwarber go.

 

Instead of going after 27 year old japanese phenom OF Seiya Suzuki who signed a 5 year/85m deal with the Cubs the Red Sox spent nearly double the money to sign 29 year old IF Trevor Story to a 6 year 140m dollar contract.

 

How are they doing so far?

 

18 games in, Seiya Suzuki is who we thought he was - batting .333 with 4 homeruns, a .458 obp, a .632 SLG, and over 1.09 OPS. In other words he's a star slugging outfielder.

 

Oh but how has Trevor Story fared for the Red Sox, surely he has justified costing nearly double the money to play a position where we already have Xander Bogaerts?

 

14 games in, Trevor Story is batting .236, with 0 homeruns, a .311 OBP, .309 SLG, and .621 OPS.

 

In other words we paid double the money and got 60% the production out of Trevor Story.

 

Meanwhile, you remember that Hunter Renfrow flip for JBJ? How is he doing this year?

 

Oh kind of as expected:

 

18 games in Jackie Bradley Jr is batting .173, with 0 homeruns, a .273 OBP, and .250 SLG, with a whopping .521 OPS.

 

That's right, our two big acquisitions of the offseason are putting up OPS of .621 and .521 respectively. That's not just mediocre or below par, that's downright terrible.

 

These two moves alone make Bloom look like a fool. Especially considering what we missed out on in the free agent market.

 

The Trevor Story signing looks to be a blunder on par or worse than Pablo Sandoval, considering the contract length and amount 6/140 vs 5/95 and the additional opportunity cost on missing out on Suzuki.

 

I don't know about you but GM's have been fired for lesser mistakes. Chaim Bloom should be in the hot seat. And until he fixes his mistakes, the Red Sox will have to live with them for a long time to come.

 

The first interesting thing I notice is that you didn't post Renfroe's numbers. Nor did you mention the two prospects we got in the deal.

 

You probably should have left out that transaction completely.

[Old Red]

The first interesting thing I notice is that you didn't post Renfroe's numbers. Nor did you mention the two prospects we got in the deal.

 

You probably should have left out that transaction completely.

 

I don’t even think the Sox had a shot at signing Suzuki anyway.

[redsoxrules]

To me Story was signed out of reaction. Like they felt they needed to make a move for the fan base as every team around them were making a splash. Should of just stood still.

[Old Red]

To me Story was signed out of reaction. Like they felt they needed to make a move for the fan base as every team around them were making a splash. Should of just stood still.

 

John Henry has rabbit ears, so you you may be right.

[Bellhorn04]

So complain when they don't sign anybody, and then complain when they do sign somebody.

 

Makes perfect sense.

[Old Red]

So complain when they don't sign anybody, and then complain when they do sign somebody.

 

Makes perfect sense.

 

There are not to many moves the Red Sox have made this off season that makes perfect sense you are right about that, and I agree.

[Bellhorn04]

Jeezus. It's a little early to call it a bad deal.

[redsoxrules]

So complain when they don't sign anybody, and then complain when they do sign somebody.

 

Makes perfect sense.

 

No it doesn't. There's signing someone and then there is signing someone to a bad deal. There was a lot of options this off season but yet they chose Story who hit at Coors field.

[Bellhorn04]

No it doesn't. There's signing someone and then there is signing someone to a bad deal. There was a lot of options this off season but yet they chose Story who hit at Coors field.

 

Lots of guys who signed big deals this offseason are off to slow starts. Seager and Semien got $500 million between them and aren't doing much yet.

 

That's baseball.

[Old Red]

Lots of guys who signed big deals this offseason are off to slow starts. Seager and Semien got $500 million between them and aren't doing much yet.

 

That's baseball.

 

That’s Texas problem. The Sox have enough problems of their own at the moment.

[Old Red]

Jeezus. It's a little early to call it a bad deal.

 

A losing record, and bats being dead wood makes everything more magnified at the moment, and Story hasn’t been any gold glove either. It is to early to call it a bad deal though.

[Bellhorn04]

A losing record, and bats being dead wood makes everything more magnified at the moment, and Story hasn’t been any gold glove either. It is to early to call it a bad deal though.

 

This I can 100% agree with.

[Old Red]

This I can 100% agree with.

 

You are right that there are all kinds of big money talent out there so far that is struggling big time to start the season.

[notin]

Story signed on March 20.

 

I don’t think they chose him over Suzuki so much as settled for him after a lot of dust settled…

[harmony]

Perhaps Seiya Suzuki did not want to play for the Boston Red Sox despite the urging of Koji Uehara.

 

[vjcsmoke]

The first interesting thing I notice is that you didn't post Renfroe's numbers. Nor did you mention the two prospects we got in the deal.

 

You probably should have left out that transaction completely.

 

The point is that the Red Sox needed to replace a 30 home run bat. They had the chance to sign Suzuki at 5/85, who is mashing big league pitching right now, and instead chose to sign Trevor Story.

 

If you really want to compare, let me check their stats:

 

JBJ through 19 games is putting up a .486 OPS which is in line with his numbers last year of .497 with Milwaukee. He's a negative presence when he gets to the plate.

Hunter Renfrow is at .617 OPS through 18 games. He may be struggling compared to his standards but he's significantly better than JBJ and has a chance to bounce back.

Meanwhile our 140m dollar IF Trevor Story clocks in at a dazzling .601 OPS through 15 games now.

Suzuki still at 1.024 OPS through 19 games with the Cubs, he also has more runs, homeruns, and RBIs than both JBJ and Story have combined between the two of them.

 

So we traded away Hunter Renfrow and paid 55m dollars MORE than Suzuki to get worse offensively at two spots in the batting lineup. OK. Does Bloom still sound as smart as you thought he was?

 

Prospects are just that, an immaterial asset until they can contribute to the big club. When they turn into something, let us know.

Edited April 30, 2022 by vjcsmoke

[vjcsmoke]

Perhaps Seiya Suzuki did not want to play for the Boston Red Sox despite the urging of Koji Uehara.

 

 

The Japanese are weird about their interviews of celebrities. They seem to enjoy funny stuff and joking around. So I wouldn't take too much out of it. It probably came down to money and who seemed the most interested. I don't know if the Red Sox showed sufficient interest in Suzuki or offered him and his agent the money they wanted to sign here. I guess we'll never know now but the price tag is not out of line with the quality of player we would have gotten.

[Deja Doh]

To sum up the Red Sox had a big choice in the offseason. They chose to trade Hunter Renfrow for Jackie Bradley Junior. So it was obvious we needed a replacement for Renfrow. We also let Kyle Schwarber go.

 

Instead of going after 27 year old japanese phenom OF Seiya Suzuki who signed a 5 year/85m deal with the Cubs the Red Sox spent nearly double the money to sign 29 year old IF Trevor Story to a 6 year 140m dollar contract.

 

How are they doing so far?

 

18 games in, Seiya Suzuki is who we thought he was - batting .333 with 4 homeruns, a .458 obp, a .632 SLG, and over 1.09 OPS. In other words he's a star slugging outfielder.

 

Oh but how has Trevor Story fared for the Red Sox, surely he has justified costing nearly double the money to play a position where we already have Xander Bogaerts?

 

14 games in, Trevor Story is batting .236, with 0 homeruns, a .311 OBP, .309 SLG, and .621 OPS.

 

In other words we paid double the money and got 60% the production out of Trevor Story.

 

Meanwhile, you remember that Hunter Renfrow flip for JBJ? How is he doing this year?

 

Oh kind of as expected:

 

18 games in Jackie Bradley Jr is batting .173, with 0 homeruns, a .273 OBP, and .250 SLG, with a whopping .521 OPS.

 

That's right, our two big acquisitions of the offseason are putting up OPS of .621 and .521 respectively. That's not just mediocre or below par, that's downright terrible.

 

These two moves alone make Bloom look like a fool. Especially considering what we missed out on in the free agent market.

 

The Trevor Story signing looks to be a blunder on par or worse than Pablo Sandoval, considering the contract length and amount 6/140 vs 5/95 and the additional opportunity cost on missing out on Suzuki.

 

I don't know about you but GM's have been fired for lesser mistakes. Chaim Bloom should be in the hot seat. And until he fixes his mistakes, the Red Sox will have to live with them for a long time to come.

 

The JBJ trade was beyond terrible. His career BA is 0.229, and his OBP is a paltry 0.310. Renfroe has similar stats but at least his OPS is 80 points higher.

For Story, his career BA at Coors is 0.303, OBP was 0.369 and OPS was 0.972. Great. But away from Coors it's 0.241, 0.310, and 0.752 respectively. Not good. He was 4 for 18 (3 singles and a homer) for his limited career at Fenway before this season with 5 strikeouts. Clearly we need to have him hit at home, and against the East. I think he can adjust.

[Bellhorn04]

The point is that the Red Sox needed to replace a 30 home run bat. They had the chance to sign Suzuki at 5/85, who is mashing big league pitching right now, and instead chose to sign Trevor Story.

 

If you really want to compare, let me check their stats:

 

JBJ through 19 games is putting up a .486 OPS which is in line with his numbers last year of .497 with Milwaukee. He's a negative presence when he gets to the plate.

Hunter Renfrow is at .617 OPS through 18 games. He may be struggling compared to his standards but he's significantly better than JBJ and has a chance to bounce back.

Meanwhile our 140m dollar IF Trevor Story clocks in at a dazzling .601 OPS through 15 games now.

Suzuki still at 1.024 OPS through 19 games with the Cubs, he also has more runs, homeruns, and RBIs than both JBJ and Story have combined between the two of them.

 

So we traded away Hunter Renfrow and paid 55m dollars MORE than Suzuki to get worse offensively at two spots in the batting lineup. OK. Does Bloom still sound as smart as you thought he was?

 

Prospects are just that, an immaterial asset until they can contribute to the big club. When they turn into something, let us know.

 

You're making way too much out of small samples.

 

In his last 11 games, Suzuki has a .611 OPS and no homers.

 

It can take a little while for pitchers to adjust to hitters they've never seen before and figure out their weak spots.

 

It's a long season.

[Hugh2]

No it doesn't. There's signing someone and then there is signing someone to a bad deal. There was a lot of options this off season but yet they chose Story who hit at Coors field.

 

Story has the same AWAY career OPS as Bogaerts.

[Bellhorn04]

For Story, his career BA at Coors is 0.303, OBP was 0.369 and OPS was 0.972. Great. But away from Coors it's 0.241, 0.310, and 0.752 respectively. Not good.

 

Everybody knows about Story's home/road splits.

 

What's not publicized as much is that Bogaerts's road OPS is .756. So that would be "not good" in your books too, right?

 

Edit Ha, talk about getting beat to the punch!

[Old Red]

Everybody knows about Story's home/road splits.

 

What's not publicized as much is that Bogaerts's road OPS is .756. So that would be "not good" in your books too, right?

 

Edit Ha, talk about getting beat to the punch!

 

The real Story Land usually opens up in late May. I hope the Red Sox Story Land opens up before then.

[Hugh2]

Personally I don’t understand why we didn’t sign D.J. LeMahieu to a 10 year 50 million dollar contract, at 5 million a year that would have been a good deal.

 

Why didn’t we sign Ohtani at 2 million per year?

 

Sox need to extend Devers at 4 million per year for 6 years. That would be a good deal.

 

Good deals are there for the Sox when NO OTHER team is willing to step in and out if and yet we NEVER make good deals, just bad deals. Smh

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

 

It can take a little while for pitchers to adjust to hitters they've never seen before and figure out their weak spots.

 

It's a long season.

 

... or contract, as hitters constantly adjust to the pitchers' "book" that circulates around the league quickly.

 

The worrisome part of Story's slow start is that he isn't just swinging and missing at one pitch in one spot -- like JD and his kryptonite low-and-away slider. Story is whiffing on virtually every breaking pitch: outside, inside, down in the zone. I don't have data, but it seems like a weakness in every game.

 

It's interesting to compare other star hitters that left Colorado recently. Arenado batted .293 with an .890 OPS in 8 years as a Rockie, and is .268, .841 as a Cardinal. DJ LeMahieu hit .299, .760 in 7 years for the Rox, then improved in 4 years in NY: .308, .833, and hit more homers (to the short porch in Yankee Stadium). Going further back, Matt Holliday hit .319, .936 in 6 seasons for Colorado, but was still good after: .287, .859 in 8 more years. Larry Walker was a star in Montreal, but a Hall of Famer in Coors with ridiculous numbers.

 

Story averaged .271, .857 in 6 years as a Rockie. The difference Red Sox fans need to be aware of is that DJ, Holliday and Walker were all batting champions in Colorado. Story was an NL strikeout champion, and has averaged 188 Ks per 162 games in his career...

 

Other Red Sox career Ks per 162: Verdugo 92, Kike 105, Vaz 108, Bogey 127, Devers 149, JBJ 154, JD 163, Dalbec 200.

[Old Red]

The JBJ trade was beyond terrible. His career BA is 0.229, and his OBP is a paltry 0.310. Renfroe has similar stats but at least his OPS is 80 points higher.

For Story, his career BA at Coors is 0.303, OBP was 0.369 and OPS was 0.972. Great. But away from Coors it's 0.241, 0.310, and 0.752 respectively. Not good. He was 4 for 18 (3 singles and a homer) for his limited career at Fenway before this season with 5 strikeouts. Clearly we need to have him hit at home, and against the East. I think he can adjust.

 

Some posters on here said the reason JBJ couldn’t hit last year was because he was playing with a new team, in a different league, in a different park, and facing different pitchers. Really? So that must be the reasoning that he can’t hit this year too.

Edited April 30, 2022 by Old Red

[notin]

Personally I don’t understand why we didn’t sign D.J. LeMahieu to a 10 year 50 million dollar contract, at 5 million a year that would have been a good deal.

 

Why didn’t we sign Ohtani at 2 million per year?

 

Sox need to extend Devers at 4 million per year for 6 years. That would be a good deal.

 

Good deals are there for the Sox when NO OTHER team is willing to step in and out if and yet we NEVER make good deals, just bad deals. Smh

 

Apparently we lack quality blackmail info.

 

Makes you wonder what exactly we pay scouts for;)

[Bellhorn04]

Some posters on here said the reason JBJ couldn’t hit last year was because he was playing with a new team, in a different league, in a different park, and facing different pitchers. Really? So that must be the reasoning that he can’t hit this year too.

 

I'd call it "hopeful theorizing".

[notin]

I'd call it "hopeful theorizing".

 

There were reason to suspect JBJ would bounce back (high LD% vs very low BABIP).

 

That doesn’t mean it happens immediately if it does.

 

But we all know he was brought back to catch balls in the outfield…

[Bellhorn04]

There were reason to suspect JBJ would bounce back (high LD% vs very low BABIP).

 

That doesn’t mean it happens immediately if it does.

 

But we all know he was brought back to catch balls in the outfield…

 

Yes, but a continued sub .500 OPS would be a problem.