Suzuki vs Story - Early Returns on Investment

[notin]

Yes, but a continued sub .500 OPS would be a problem.

 

As big as what the Sox are getting from Verdugo, Vazquez, Dalbec and Story? And even Devers?

 

 

On the list of Sox offensive issues, JBJ ranks pretty low…

[Kimmi]

There were reason to suspect JBJ would bounce back (high LD% vs very low BABIP).

 

That doesn’t mean it happens immediately if it does.

 

But we all know he was brought back to catch balls in the outfield…

 

It is not unreasonable to think Jackie can return to at least 2019 numbers. His BABIP is still incredibly low, and his "expected" stats put him right in line with 2019 numbers. Not great, but better than where he is now.

 

That said, I am still surprised that the Sox did not acquire another outfielder who bats right handed. That said, the expectation was that the rest of the offense would be hitting well enough to carry JBJ in the 9 hole. It's kind of hard to cover JBJ when most of the rest of the offense is hitting as poorly as they are.

[Kimmi]

As big as what the Sox are getting from Verdugo, Vazquez, Dalbec and Story? And even Devers?

 

 

On the list of Sox offensive issues, JBJ ranks pretty low…

 

100%

[Old Red]

There were reason to suspect JBJ would bounce back (high LD% vs very low BABIP).

 

That doesn’t mean it happens immediately if it does.

 

But we all know he was brought back to catch balls in the outfield…

 

He is smooth as silk in the OF, but just has a big hole in his bat, and what makes it look worse at the moment is a lot of the other guys have holes in their bats too.

[Bellhorn04]

As big as what the Sox are getting from Verdugo, Vazquez, Dalbec and Story? And even Devers?

 

 

On the list of Sox offensive issues, JBJ ranks pretty low…

 

The difference being that JBJ had the sub .500 OPS last year, so there are legit reasons to be concerned that he's not going to bounce back.

 

Dalbec is on thin ice too.

[Old Red]

The difference being that JBJ had the sub .500 OPS last year, so there are legit reasons to be concerned that he's not going to bounce back.

 

Dalbec is on thin ice too.

 

There are not only legit reasons, but every reason to believe that JBJ will not hit, and not to mention that the Sox are paying him more money than they were before. Dalbec is dong the same thing as he did last year in the first part of the season. Don’t know if he will bounce back as he did last year, or if he will even get that chance. Franchy isn’t the answer, and I don’t think Casas is ready at the moment to be called up either.

[notin]

The difference being that JBJ had the sub .500 OPS last year, so there are legit reasons to be concerned that he's not going to bounce back.

 

Dalbec is on thin ice too.

 

 

Actually, Bradley’s ridiculously low BABIP along with career LD/GB/FB splits indicate he has been a bit unlucky. And the shift isn’t helping.

 

But his K% is way down and his soft hit % has been an insanely low 4.3%. He’s hitting the ball. Let good things come…

[Old Red]

Actually, Bradley’s ridiculously low BABIP along with career LD/GB/FB splits indicate he has been a bit unlucky. And the shift isn’t helping.

 

But his K% is way down and his soft hit % has been an insanely low 4.3%. He’s hitting the ball. Let good things come…

 

Grasp at as many straws, or stats as you can, but the only things that counts is results.

[jad]

Grasp at as many straws, or stats as you can, but the only things that counts is results.

 

I don't understand the difference between 'stats' and 'results'.

[moonslav59]

I don't understand the difference between 'stats' and 'results'.

 

I think it means he thinks a guy who strikes out 7 in 10 times but gets 3 bloop hits is better than a guy who gets 2 hits every 10 times and line out sharply 8 times.

 

Luck counts more than skill.

[Old Red]

I don't understand the difference between 'stats' and 'results'.

 

Stats never tell the whole story of the final results. Sometimes certain stats would only be useful if put on a piece of paper, and used in the bathroom. How many stats. Do you need to tell you JBJ is not a good hitter?

[Old Red]

I think it means he thinks a guy who strikes out 7 in 10 times but gets 3 bloop hits is better than a guy who gets 2 hits every 10 times and line out sharply 8 times.

 

Luck counts more than skill.

 

It all depends how many guys he leaves on base in those 7 k’s, and how many RBI he gets with those 3 bloop hits.

[Bellhorn04]

Actually, Bradley’s ridiculously low BABIP along with career LD/GB/FB splits indicate he has been a bit unlucky. And the shift isn’t helping.

 

But his K% is way down and his soft hit % has been an insanely low 4.3%. He’s hitting the ball. Let good things come…

 

Fangraphs says he has a -0.1 WAR this year, after a -1.5 WAR last year. Don't they take all that stuff into account?

[Old Red]

Fangraphs says he has a -0.1 WAR this year, after a -1.5 WAR last year. Don't they take all that stuff into account?

 

What does the eye test tell you? Do you really need any kind of metrics?

[notin]

It all depends how many guys he leaves on base in those 7 k’s, and how many RBI he gets with those 3 bloop hits.

 

So you prefer Julio Lugo over Dustin Pedroia in 2007?

 

Luck is nice, but I think most teams prefer ability over luck. Luck has a tendency to even out.

 

And really, we are dealing with players with 60-80 ABs. It’s too early to label anyone a bust. Especially a notoriously streaky hitter like Bradley…

[Old Red]

I like JBJ, but I gave up on him being a good hitter, but you can hang to your hope all you want, but I don’t think this Bloom deal will do anything more than wilt on the vine. Edited April 30, 2022 by Old Red

[dgalehouse]

If JBJ continues to struggle, it could be time to give Duran a real shot at the job. He seems like a player who could really provide a spark to this team.

[notin]

Fangraphs says he has a -0.1 WAR this year, after a -1.5 WAR last year. Don't they take all that stuff into account?

 

No. fWAR doesn’t take BABIP vs xBABIP into account. The offense is based on RC, which is a function of H, BB and TB…

[Old Red]

No. fWAR doesn’t take BABIP vs xBABIP into account. The offense is based on RC, which is a function of H, BB and TB…

 

But what does the eye test tell you?

[dgalehouse]

No. fWAR doesn’t take BABIP vs xBABIP into account. The offense is based on RC, which is a function of H, BB and TB…

 

Alphabet soup is an acquired taste.

[Old Red]

Alphabet soup is an acquired taste.

 

It’s just hilarious to me that so many like that kind of soup, and can’t survive without it.

[Bellhorn04]

No. fWAR doesn’t take BABIP vs xBABIP into account. The offense is based on RC, which is a function of H, BB and TB…

 

Seems a bit primitive.

[notin]

Seems a bit primitive.

 

Well do you want WINS above replacement or POTENTIAL WINS above replacement?

 

Bear in mind WAR is a measurement of accomplishment, not ability…

[notin]

But what does the eye test tell you?

 

That people overvalue seeing what they want to see, usually…

[notin]

Grasp at as many straws, or stats as you can, but the only things that counts is results.

 

Unless those results are that the data driven pencil-necked geeks in the Sox front office have gotten 4 World Series rings. And then it’s all about the straws like Bob Gibson and Buckner’s ground out…

[moonslav59]

Unless those results are that the data driven pencil-necked geeks in the Sox front office have gotten 4 World Series rings. And then it’s all about the straws like Bob Gibson and Buckner’s ground out…

 

I guess 4 rings is not good enough "results" for some.

[Old Red]

Unless those results are that the data driven pencil-necked geeks in the Sox front office have gotten 4 World Series rings. And then it’s all about the straws like Bob Gibson and Buckner’s ground out…

 

I don’t think those 4 rings the Red Sox have won since 04 have anything to do with stats, and I don’t think the reason the Red Sox didn’t win has anything to to with your stats either. We’ve already gone over this. Bob Gibson was a big reason the Sox didn’t win in 67, and Grand Pa Buckner’s creaky legs was a big reason they didn’t win either, but if you really want to stick to your belief that metrics was the reason the Sox won, or didn’t win then good for you, because in all these years I’ve been a Red Sox fan I haven’t heard that anyone else spout that same theory, so good for you. Some people will believe anything. Come on man!

[Old Red]

I guess 4 rings is not good enough "results" for some.

 

What has this got to do with the subject at hand. You already knew the question had been changed before you gave your answer.

[Bellhorn04]

Well do you want WINS above replacement or POTENTIAL WINS above replacement?

 

Bear in mind WAR is a measurement of accomplishment, not ability…

 

But for pitching fWAR they use FIP.

[Old Red]

That people overvalue seeing what they want to see, usually…

 

A blind squirrel could tell you JBJ can’t hit