2022 Starting Rotation Thread

[Bellhorn04]

I’d be fine with Whitlock starting and Houck closing. But this idiotic strategy of using Houck only on days Hill pitches and (potentially) pulling Hill before a runner even gets into scoring position seems like a waste of Houck and Hill.

 

Sure Hill is 42. But he isn’t dead. He has a long injury history, but again, he’s 42. Let him pitch. You don’t need to make sure you prematurely end his career by overuse at this point..

 

This is the Hill you're willing to die on.

[moonslav59]

I’d be fine with Whitlock starting and Houck closing. But this idiotic strategy of using Houck only on days Hill pitches and (potentially) pulling Hill before a runner even gets into scoring position seems like a waste of Houck and Hill.

 

Sure Hill is 42. But he isn’t dead. He has a long injury history, but again, he’s 42. Let him pitch. You don’t need to make sure you don’t prematurely end his career by overuse at this point..

 

He's 42, but his IP is like a 32 year old's.

[Old Red]

I’d be fine with Whitlock starting and Houck closing. But this idiotic strategy of using Houck only on days Hill pitches and (potentially) pulling Hill before a runner even gets into scoring position seems like a waste of Houck and Hill.

 

Sure Hill is 42. But he isn’t dead. He has a long injury history, but again, he’s 42. Let him pitch. You don’t need to make sure you don’t prematurely end his career by overuse at this point..

 

I agree, and pulling Hill early made more work for the BP, because Houck only went 3 after that. It’s not like the BP needs xtra work. Don’t like openers, and don’t like piggybackers.

[harmony]

I agree with Nick that Whitlock should be starting. You always want your best pitcher starting. That's pretty old school, isn't it?

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/garrett-whitlock-is-bostons-most-valuable-pitcher/

[notin]

This is the Hill you're willing to die on.

 

I’ve seen people die on dumber ones…

[mvp 78]

He's 42, but his IP is like a 32 year old's.

 

Because he's always injured.

[moonslav59]

Because he's always injured.

 

Exactly, but his arm is as fresh as a 32 year old's, until it's not.

[notin]

Because he's always injured.

 

Yeah but since it’s usually blisters on hits fingers, he has the tendons of a 25yo.

 

Hopefully not literally. Especially not of they’re in a box in his crawl space…

[mvp 78]

Exactly, but his arm is as fresh as a 32 year old's, until it's not.

 

I have pitched 0 professional innings. My arm is not fresh.

[mvp 78]

Yeah but since it’s usually blisters on hits fingers, he has the tendons of a 25yo.

 

Hopefully not literally. Especially not of they’re in a box in his crawl space…

 

I don't know how you cryogenically store tendons while maintaining them in your body for 40 years.

[Bellhorn04]

I don't know how you cryogenically store tendons while maintaining them in your body for 40 years.

 

His joke was more evil than you gave credit for.

[Nick]

Other pitcher's pitch count was over 90. He faced the Sox lineup 3 times, including Story 4 times.

 

Isn't this what starting pitcher looks like?

 

Or are you now going to tell me that the opposing pitcher is Cy Young caliber?

 

Our bullpen problem is partially manufactured by Cora and the pitching coaches.

 

By limiting starter's role, we give ourselves greater chance to fail out of bullpen. Put that in your analytics. Common sense to me especially when the starter is pitching well.

[moonslav59]

Other pitcher's pitch count was over 90. He faced the Sox lineup 3 times, including Story 4 times.

 

Isn't this what starting pitcher looks like?

 

Or are you now going to tell me that the opposing pitcher is Cy Young caliber?

 

Our bullpen problem is partially manufactured by Cora and the pitching coaches.

 

By limiting starter's role, we give ourselves greater chance to fail out of bullpen. Put that in your analytics. Common sense to me especially when the starter is pitching well.

 

I'm willing to cut Cora some slack due to the delayed and shortened ST'ing and the fact that we had a 15 man staff thought April, but I agree. It's time to "take the kid gloves off," stop pampering" our starters or whatever you want to call it. It doesn't have to be every start, or even every time a pitcher is pitching well and has under 90 pitches, just try it a few times with guys who have proven, as recently as last season, they can go 3 times through a line-up without getting shelled.

 

The time is now, and I won't argue with anyone who says the time was yesterday or a week ago.

[notin]

Other pitcher's pitch count was over 90. He faced the Sox lineup 3 times, including Story 4 times.

 

Isn't this what starting pitcher looks like?

 

Or are you now going to tell me that the opposing pitcher is Cy Young caliber?

 

Our bullpen problem is partially manufactured by Cora and the pitching coaches.

 

By limiting starter's role, we give ourselves greater chance to fail out of bullpen. Put that in your analytics. Common sense to me especially when the starter is pitching well.

 

 

The common sense aspect isn’t so simple.

 

Is it better to wait until they fail or pull them out before they fail?

 

Maybe not facing lineups the third time is a big, big part of the success of the rotation. Not like Wacha and Hill were Cy Young candidates last year…

[Old Red]

The common sense aspect isn’t so simple.

 

Is it better to wait until they fail or pull them out before they fail?

 

Maybe not facing lineups the third time is a big, big part of the success of the rotation. Not like Wacha and Hill were Cy Young candidates last year…

 

How do you know if anyone is going to fail? If someone is pitching good like Wacha the other night, or Hill today you leave them in. How do you know like today that the person coming will not fail like Houck did today? I know lots of people swear by analytics, but I swear about analytics.

[moonslav59]

The common sense aspect isn’t so simple.

 

Is it better to wait until they fail or pull them out before they fail?

 

Maybe not facing lineups the third time is a big, big part of the success of the rotation. Not like Wacha and Hill were Cy Young candidates last year…

 

No, but they both had better OPS Against the 3rd time through than Big Nate, last year. If it's all about the 3rd time through, then let's make it all about who has proven they can go three times. The three I see are Big Nate, Hill and Wacha.

 

If you try it, and it fails, then make another adjustment.

[cp176]

Other pitcher's pitch count was over 90. He faced the Sox lineup 3 times, including Story 4 times.

 

Isn't this what starting pitcher looks like?

 

Or are you now going to tell me that the opposing pitcher is Cy Young caliber?

 

Our bullpen problem is partially manufactured by Cora and the pitching coaches.

 

By limiting starter's role, we give ourselves greater chance to fail out of bullpen. Put that in your analytics. Common sense to me especially when the starter is pitching well.

 

you are right and it is quite obvious.

[notin]

How do you know if anyone is going to fail? If someone is pitching good like Wacha the other night, or Hill today you leave them in. How do you know like today that the person coming will not fail like Houck did today? I know lots of people swear by analytics, but I swear about analytics.

 

 

The problem is that it actually looks like that part of the analytics is actually working. When was the last time Mike Wacha had a stretch like this? Yet he spent his whole career pitching until trouble, and the numbers weren’t as good. So either he suddenly get a helluva better in his 30s or the Sox were right about how to handle Wacha, or they got very lucky. Ditto with Hill. And Whitlock…

[Old Red]

The problem is that it actually looks like that part of the analytics is actually working. When was the last time Mike Wacha had a stretch like this? Yet he spent his whole career pitching until trouble, and the numbers weren’t as good. So either he suddenly get a helluva better in his 30s or the Sox were right about how to handle Wacha, or they got very lucky. Ditto with Hill. And Whitlock…

 

I would suggest before we do a final diagnosis on Wacha we give him a little more time. Just look how hitting is down all over baseball, and the Red Sox are an perfect example of that., so he may be just riding the no bat wave. I’ve been watching the Red Sox since 1960 that I can remember, and I don’t remember a Red Sox lineup that has been this stagnant for this long a time, and they haven’t been facing any Jim Palmers, or Nolan Ryan’s in the last two series.

[JDavis76]

The way they are hitting lately I would like Ryan or Palmer's odds against them even at their advanced ages.

[moonslav59]

The problem is that it actually looks like that part of the analytics is actually working. When was the last time Mike Wacha had a stretch like this? Yet he spent his whole career pitching until trouble, and the numbers weren’t as good. So either he suddenly get a helluva better in his 30s or the Sox were right about how to handle Wacha, or they got very lucky. Ditto with Hill. And Whitlock…

 

How does having just as good an OPS Against the 3rd time through as the second, career, show he was being left in too long?

 

2021

.777 1st time

.748 2nd time

.607 3rd time

.

[notin]

How does having just as good an OPS Against the 3rd time through as the second, career, show he was being left in too long?

 

2021

.777 1st time

.748 2nd time

.607 3rd time

.

 

Those numbers are over 67 PA. Career numbers are better.

 

For his career, they do climb slightly, but bear in mind in the NL, the first two trips through the lineup mean he got to face pitchers for approximately 10% of his hitters. And even then, the SLG jumps up about .070 and he allowed 75% as many home runs to hitters third time through in roughly 50% of the plate appearances.

 

The reduced workload and reduced exposure helping him is really not a surprise. Bu the problem with this strategy is if the Sox try to limit their SP to 5IP every game, they will need 4 IP from their bullpen. And that is getting dangerously close to a 750-700 IP split between the to roles that I don't think the Sox relievers are very ready for...

[moonslav59]

Those numbers are over 67 PA. Career numbers are better.

 

For his career, they do climb slightly, but bear in mind in the NL, the first two trips through the lineup mean he got to face pitchers for approximately 10% of his hitters. And even then, the SLG jumps up about .070 and he allowed 75% as many home runs to hitters third time through in roughly 50% of the plate appearances.

 

The reduced workload and reduced exposure helping him is really not a surprise. Bu the problem with this strategy is if the Sox try to limit their SP to 5IP every game, they will need 4 IP from their bullpen. And that is getting dangerously close to a 750-700 IP split between the to roles that I don't think the Sox relievers are very ready for...

 

Like I said, his career numbers show he's about the same the 2nd time and 3rd time through. When you look at the career numbers of all our starters, Wacha and Hill blow the others away, and the 2021 numbers support the same conclusion. If anyone should go through 3 times, it's Wacha and Hill and sometimes Big Nate.

 

2021/Career OPS Against

2021: 1st time> 2nd time> 3rd time through a line-up

Career: 1st time> 2nd time> 3rd time through a line-up

 

Eovaldi

.648>.670>.780

.669>.706>.867

 

Wacha

.777>.747>.607

.682>.742>.750

 

Hill

.649>.838>.586

.637>.725>.674

 

Pivetta

.700>.641> 1.011

.762>.742>.901

 

Houck

.516>.619>1.489

.497>.626>1.017

 

[notin]

Like I said, his career numbers show he's about the same the 2nd time and 3rd time through. When you look at the career numbers of all our starters, Wacha and Hill blow the others away, and the 2021 numbers support the same conclusion. If anyone should go through 3 times, it's Wacha and Hill and sometimes Big Nate.

 

2021/Career OPS Against

2021: 1st time> 2nd time> 3rd time through a line-up

Career: 1st time> 2nd time> 3rd time through a line-up

 

Eovaldi

.648>.670>.780

.669>.706>.867

 

Wacha

.777>.747>.607

.682>.742>.750

 

Hill

.649>.838>.586

.637>.725>.674

 

Pivetta

.700>.641> 1.011

.762>.742>.901

 

Houck

.516>.619>1.489

.497>.626>1.017

 

 

So even if Wacha isn’t the example, you’ve still shown that 3rd time through the lineup is worse for more pitchers.

 

I looked at career numbers, too, but (especially with Hill) that leaves the problem of weighing innings from a long time ago equal to today. And for Hill and Wacha (and probably Eovaldi), they’re likely not.

 

Obviously they saw something in Wacha they liked, because so far he looks like a steal. Ditto for Hill.

 

And it really didn’t even seem like strong analytics to think a pitcher would be less effective third time through the lineup. Hitters are more familiar and the pitcher is more tired. The logic is simple.

 

But the flaw is relying on the bullpen to be more effective. And lately for the Sox, the bullpen has been volatile. This is likely to be something that happens too often if they keep relying on the pen for 4 innings every game, a situation exacerbated by the ridiculous usage of Houck as a piggyback for one pitcher only.

[moonslav59]

So even if Wacha isn’t the example, you’ve still shown that 3rd time through the lineup is worse for more pitchers.

 

I looked at career numbers, too, but (especially with Hill) that leaves the problem of weighing innings from a long time ago equal to today. And for Hill and Wacha (and probably Eovaldi), they’re likely not.

 

Obviously they saw something in Wacha they liked, because so far he looks like a steal. Ditto for Hill.

 

And it really didn’t even seem like strong analytics to think a pitcher would be less effective third time through the lineup. Hitters are more familiar and the pitcher is more tired. The logic is simple.

 

But the flaw is relying on the bullpen to be more effective. And lately for the Sox, the bullpen has been volatile. This is likely to be something that happens too often if they keep relying on the pen for 4 innings every game, a situation exacerbated by the ridiculous usage of Houck as a piggyback for one pitcher only.

 

My point was more about Wache being better the 3rd time through than Eovaldi- career and 2021, yet who is the only guys they let o 3+?

 

Eovaldi and for a while, Pivetta.

 

Wacha has significantly better numbers than Nate.

 

I'm with you on Hill, but let's give Wacha a couple chances beyond the second time through.

 

I'm with you on Houck. Start him or make him the one inning closer.

[moonslav59]

So even if Wacha isn’t the example, you’ve still shown that 3rd time through the lineup is worse for more pitchers.

.

 

If you look at career and 2021, it's too close to say he's worse the 3rd time vs 2nd. It's about the same.

 

Now, if you want to argue he's been more successful because his arm is not being overused, that might have some truth to it, but the guy has done pretty much the same the 2nd and 3rd time through.

 

His 2021 number is .173 points better than Nate, and Nate had his best career year, in 2021.

 

His career number is .117 points better than Nate.

[cp176]

You use as much information that is available to help you do the best job that you can do but it seems to me that an extensive use of analytics to defend certain stances makes it look as though they are also being used to provide a crutch when things just don't work. Common sense and coaching means that on occasion you do what you think is the right thing to do. it is possible that a good decision might not be supported by analytics. Paralysis by analysis is a real thing.

Houck and Whitlock should be both used as starters at this point or relievers but jerking them around being used as both isn't going to help this situation. They are young guys who need to have clearly defined roles. It is kind of looking as though the real hitters on this team might be our big three - Devers, Bogaerts, and Martinez. If these professional hitters are not going to be in our future, my choice would be to bring up the kids and see what they can do. What we are doing right now appears to be an exercise in colossal failure.

[cp176]

You use as much information that is available to help you do the best job that you can do but it seems to me that an extensive use of analytics to defend certain stances makes it look as though they are also being used to provide a crutch when things just don't work. Common sense and coaching means that on occasion you do what you think is the right thing to do. it is possible that a good decision might not be supported by analytics. Paralysis by analysis is a real thing.

Houck and Whitlock should be both used as starters at this point or relievers but jerking them around being used as both isn't going to help this situation. They are young guys who need to have clearly defined roles. It is kind of looking as though the real hitters on this team might be our big three - Devers, Bogaerts, and Martinez. If these professional hitters are not going to be in our future, my choice would be to bring up the kids and see what they can do. What we are doing right now appears to be an exercise in colossal failure.

 

Oh I forgot to say that personally I think that not using a pitcher who is throwing well with a low pitch count simply because you fear what might happen when he sees anybody for the third time, is a sad way to coach. Maybe you watch him carefully but you don't yank hm just because.

[Old Red]

Oh I forgot to say that personally I think that not using a pitcher who is throwing well with a low pitch count simply because you fear what might happen when he sees anybody for the third time, is a sad way to coach. Maybe you watch him carefully but you don't yank hm just because.

 

I agree 100%, but that’s not the way that the nerds, or metrics says it should be done. I personally think pitch count is a bigger determinator than the 3rd time through the order. Any stats on pitch counts in relation to third time through the order?

[cp176]

I agree 100%, but that’s not the way that the nerds, or metrics says it should be done. I personally think pitch count is a bigger determinator than the 3rd time through the order. Any stats on pitch counts in relation to third time through the order?

 

Does kind of make you wonder about fatigue being a factor. Is it possible that some of these guys just tire out? Maybe conditioning plays a role in all of this.