Carlos Correa is the closest thing to a young Arod we may ever see without PED

[Swiharts Ghost]

Mookie was offered 300 million by Ownership is it plausible maybe Correa ends up in Boston ? Take his attitude aside and look at the talent and fit and age .Xander needs to be moved over same with Devers .Bloom doesn’t have the SACK to make this move but he absolutely should .

[notin]

Bogaerts is a better overall player than Correa, at least according to fWAR…

[Swiharts Ghost]

Bogaerts is a better overall player than Correa, at least according to fWAR…

 

Respect you Notin and FWAr is better than most .I just don’t see it .Its a dream I know.

Edited December 7, 2021 by Swiharts Ghost

[moonslav59]

The great thing about Correa is the defense and age. He’s probably got 3-5 years of prime to put up big numbers.

 

What worries me is this:

 

Paying big money for 10+ years for a player who has played 8 seasons and only had 500+ PAs twice whil hitting under .850 in 3 of the last 4 seasons.

 

His .837 career OPS is not great and was fueled by seasons from too long ago.

[Old Red]

The great thing about Correa is the defense and age. He’s probably got 3-5 years of prime to put up big numbers.

 

What worries me is this:

 

Paying big money for 10+ years for a player who has played 8 seasons and only had 500+ PAs twice whil hitting under .850 in 3 of the last 4 seasons.

 

His .837 career OPS is not great and was fueled by seasons from too long ago.

 

Even if the Sox had the money, and desire to sign him, would there be enough money to sign Devers too?

[moonslav59]

Even if the Sox had the money, and desire to sign him, would there be enough money to sign Devers too?

 

I doubt it, and we’ll always have some sort of restricted budget. I just would not choose Correa as the guy to have our highest salary for the next 10 years. I realise the guy could go on to be worth every penny and then some, but he’s not “that guy” to me.

 

If it came down to Correa at$350M/10 vs Devers at$280M/10, I’ll take Devers Forevers!

[Swiharts Ghost]

The great thing about Correa is the defense and age. He’s probably got 3-5 years of prime to put up big numbers.

 

What worries me is this:

 

Paying big money for 10+ years for a player who has played 8 seasons and only had 500+ PAs twice whil hitting under .850 in 3 of the last 4 seasons.

 

His .837 career OPS is not great and was fueled by seasons from too long ago.

 

It’s fair .I look at his park and Fenway and kinda get caught up with the bat .Hes definitely a special player but not perfect .

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It’s fair .I look at his park and Fenway and kinda get caught up with the bat .Hes definitely a special player but not perfect .

 

Correa vs. Devers for the next decade makes for a good debate. Both began in the MLB at age 20, but Correa is the better player right now because of defense. Through each of their age 24 seasons, Carlos (who is two years older) has been worth more than twice the WAR of Raffy. But going forward, who has more room to grow into potentially an all-timer?

 

Career OPS rates so far for Correa .837 and Devers .847 are good, but not automatic Cooperstown predictors. For context, here are a couple other infielders through age 24: Miguel Cabrera had a .929 OPS, and when he reached his prime between ages 28-32, won four batting crowns with marks of .330 or higher, with an average OPS of .996; Albert Pujols didn't make the majors at age 20, but from age 21-24 he had an OPS of 1.037. In his prime years of age 28-32, he also had an OPS of .996.

 

Extreme cases above, but are any infielders really worthy of a 10-year deal? Lindor's career OPS through age 24 was .837... and since then, it has gone down (great fielder, though). Tatis is already playing some outfield at age 22...

[Hugh2]

Correa vs. Devers for the next decade makes for a good debate. Both began in the MLB at age 20, but Correa is the better player right now because of defense. Through each of their age 24 seasons, Carlos (who is two years older) has been worth more than twice the WAR of Raffy. But going forward, who has more room to grow into potentially an all-timer?

 

Career OPS rates so far for Correa .837 and Devers .847 are good, but not automatic Cooperstown predictors. For context, here are a couple other infielders through age 24: Miguel Cabrera had a .929 OPS, and when he reached his prime between ages 28-32, won four batting crowns with marks of .330 or higher, with an average OPS of .996; Albert Pujols didn't make the majors at age 20, but from age 21-24 he had an OPS of 1.037. In his prime years of age 28-32, he also had an OPS of .996.

 

Extreme cases above, but are any infielders really worthy of a 10-year deal? Lindor's career OPS through age 24 was .837... and since then, it has gone down (great fielder, though). Tatis is already playing some outfield at age 22...

 

Great analysis. The biggest difference between the two may be that Correa may stick at SS going forward and if he loses a step can likely give you an above-average 3B/2B. Devers in a few years down the line may be a 1B/DH type. Devers pure hitting skills and power may last longer into his 30's while Correa either may develop more power as he ages or decline. Time will tell. If the Sox are willing to start spending heavy for a few years and Story > Correa = more players (Suzuki and an extension or two) I'd prefer Story.

[Swiharts Ghost]

Correa vs. Devers for the next decade makes for a good debate. Both began in the MLB at age 20, but Correa is the better player right now because of defense. Through each of their age 24 seasons, Carlos (who is two years older) has been worth more than twice the WAR of Raffy. But going forward, who has more room to grow into potentially an all-timer?

 

Career OPS rates so far for Correa .837 and Devers .847 are good, but not automatic Cooperstown predictors. For context, here are a couple other infielders through age 24: Miguel Cabrera had a .929 OPS, and when he reached his prime between ages 28-32, won four batting crowns with marks of .330 or higher, with an average OPS of .996; Albert Pujols didn't make the majors at age 20, but from age 21-24 he had an OPS of 1.037. In his prime years of age 28-32, he also had an OPS of .996.

 

Extreme cases above, but are any infielders really worthy of a 10-year deal? Lindor's career OPS through age 24 was .837... and since then, it has gone down (great fielder, though). Tatis is already playing some outfield at age 22...

 

Great post ..I can only add one thing to this and it’s an evaluation that can be made with incredible insight with Cora .Cora knows both men and I think If he is in on a meeting with JH and Bloom what does he passionately sell to ownership ? I don’t know this .Suzuki if signed is a future goldmine with overseas merchandise and here in America .Suzuki merchandise sales would significantly offset a significant acquisition of Correa .I personally would go all in with Suzuki ,Correa and Bryant and Rondon .

Edited December 8, 2021 by Swiharts Ghost

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Great post ..I can only add one thing to this and it’s an evaluation that can be made with incredible insight with Cora .Cora knows both men and I think If he is in on a meeting with JH and Bloom what does he passionately sell to ownership ? I don’t know this .Suzuki if signed is a future goldmine with overseas merchandise and here in America .Suzuki merchandise sales would significantly offset a significant acquisition of Correa .I personally would go all in with Suzuki ,Correa and Bryant and Rondon .

 

Thanks, Hugh and Ghost. Maybe the new CBA -- whenever that is settled -- will provide the impetus for the next longterm Red Sox signing. But it may no longer make sense -- fiscally nor analytically -- to sign a player at the beginning of his prime at age 28, since that already seems too late; smart teams just don't want to risk getting stuck with the second half of albatross contracts.

 

Depending on the (inevitable?) adjusted age/service time agreement between owners and the union, a young stud who comes up when he's 20 and stars for four or five years is a much better investment. A guy like Juan Soto, who made it at age 19 and has posted a .981 OPS for four seasons (and already three Top 10 MVP finishes) is the safest bet on the board. He just turned 23, but won't be eligible for free agency until 2025... by then, not even he may be worth what he wants.

 

Trout's already 30 and missed last year with an injury; he's signed for $37 million per year through 2030... The next/first guys Bloom wants to lock up longterm just may be Mayer and Yorke -- if they're tearing through the minors in the next few years and continue to rake in the bigs. But that wait-and-see window is a small one in a big market, before a CBO's job is on the line and he's compelled to make a splash!

[moonslav59]

Great analysis. The biggest difference between the two may be that Correa may stick at SS going forward and if he loses a step can likely give you an above-average 3B/2B. Devers in a few years down the line may be a 1B/DH type. Devers pure hitting skills and power may last longer into his 30's while Correa either may develop more power as he ages or decline. Time will tell. If the Sox are willing to start spending heavy for a few years and Story > Correa = more players (Suzuki and an extension or two) I'd prefer Story.

 

I know Story will be cheaper, but those away splits are scary.

 

I’d have preferred Baez over Story.

[mvp 78]

I know Story will be cheaper, but those away splits are scary.

 

I’d have preferred Baez over Story.

 

I want no part of Story.

[notin]

I want no part of Story.

 

He’s a good defender, but not good enough for the contract he’ll want.

 

He’s a Texan. Houston needs a shortstop, and offered a lot of money to Correa that they haven’t spent yet. This one seems obvious to me…

[Nick]

Moon, I have a project for you.

 

It would be interesting to see a break out of Luxury Tax Payroll and how you would break out the $210M.

 

Start with

 

SP1 $25M Sale ($25.6M)

SP2 $20M Eovaldi ($17M)

SP3 $10M

SP4 $5M

SP5 $3M

SP6 $1M

 

Total committed to starting pitchers, $64M

 

It would be a road map of how the roster will be constructed. If you pay someone over the slotted amount, then some other position would have to take less.

 

You would have 5 major groups.

Starting Pitching (6).....$64M

Bullpen (7)

Position players (13)

40 man roster fill ins and medical (Cot's has that amount at $20.9M)

Contract being paid on non performing player

 

This would be similar to annual draft.

 

Correa singing would have to be adjusted elsewhere, say trade Xavier and Devers. You would match the current salaries.

Edited December 8, 2021 by Nick

[mvp 78]

He’s a good defender, but not good enough for the contract he’ll want.

 

He’s a Texan. Houston needs a shortstop, and offered a lot of money to Correa that they haven’t spent yet. This one seems obvious to me…

 

I'm just really scared off by the Coors factor with him.

[moonslav59]

I want no part of Story.

 

Me, too.

[moonslav59]

Moon, I have a project for you.

 

It would be interesting to see a break out of Luxury Tax Payroll and how you would break out the $210M.

 

Start with

 

SP1 $25M Sale ($25.6M)

SP2 $20M Eovaldi ($17M)

SP3 $10M

SP4 $5M

SP5 $3M

SP6 $1M

 

Total committed to starting pitchers, $64M

 

It would be a road map of how the roster will be constructed. If you pay someone over the slotted amount, then some other position would have to take less.

 

You would have 5 major groups.

Starting Pitching (6).....$64M

Bullpen (7)

Position players (13)

40 man roster fill ins and medical (Cot's has that amount at $20.9M)

Contract being paid on non performing player

 

This would be similar to annual draft.

 

Correa singing would have to be adjusted elsewhere, say trade Xavier and Devers. You would match the current salaries.

 

I’m not sure what you are asking, and if it is what I think it is, it’s hard to calculate with so many variables involved, including how many contributing min wage guys we have and what positions they play.

 

I think cots has 40 man roster players plus medical benefits at about $18.3M not 20.9.

 

In general, I’d think something like this:

 

20 for meds and misc players

80 SPers 6+ pitchers

20 RPers 7+ pitchers

90 everyday players 13 players

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'm just really scared off by the Coors factor with him.

 

Yup, I remember one Colorado bar back in 1980. They had 25-cent Coors on tap, but all the guys in cowboy boots were drinking Bud.

[moonslav59]

Yup, I remember one Colorado bar back in 1980. They had 25-cent Coors on tap, but all the guys in cowboy boots were drinking Bud.

 

Some nasty splits in those CO bars!

[Swiharts Ghost]

Some nasty splits in those CO bars!

 

Confused about rule 5 that happened today? Does this mean Ward was not chosen ?

[moonslav59]

Confused about rule 5 that happened today? Does this mean Ward was not chosen ?

 

There is a ML rule 5 and minor league rule 5.

 

Today was minor league.

 

Ward is on the major league list.

 

[Hugh2]

The great thing about Correa is the defense and age. He’s probably got 3-5 years of prime to put up big numbers.

 

What worries me is this:

 

Paying big money for 10+ years for a player who has played 8 seasons and only had 500+ PAs twice whil hitting under .850 in 3 of the last 4 seasons.

 

His .837 career OPS is not great and was fueled by seasons from too long ago.

 

Easy solution, you give him an opt out. Ok, you lose him in his prime but you get him in his prime and don't have to shell out 35+ million per year when he's in sever decline.

[moonslav59]

Easy solution, you give him an opt out. Ok, you lose him in his prime but you get him in his prime and don't have to shell out 35+ million per year when he's in sever decline.

 

Still too expensive, and what if he hits under .8oo like he has in 2 of his last 4 seasons.

 

I’d have rather spent on Betts.

[mvp 78]

Still too expensive, and what if he hits under .8oo like he has in 2 of his last 4 seasons.

 

I’d have rather spent on Betts.

 

Mookie's "down" year in 2017 still was 803 and 5.3 fWAR. Mookie was the same age when dealt. Correa is a very good player, Mookie is a great player. It would make no sense to take money that should have gone to Mookie and give it to Correa. Big downgrade.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Mookie's "down" year in 2017 still was 803 and 5.3 fWAR. Mookie was the same age when dealt. Correa is a very good player, Mookie is a great player. It would make no sense to take money that should have gone to Mookie and give it to Correa. Big downgrade.

 

Except Correa is a lot taller, which apparently means more to some evaluators than actual statistical accomplishments. Plus, the Red Sox care more about NESN, and hot dog and beer sales at Fenway for 2022... 2020 is over and done with (never even happened, to some).

[moonslav59]

Except Correa is a lot taller, which apparently means more to some evaluators than actual statistical accomplishments. Plus, the Red Sox care more about NESN, and hot dog and beer sales at Fenway for 2022... 2020 is over and done with (never even happened, to some).

 

Just win and the fans will come or watch on TV.

 

We have some big stars already. I don’t think Correa grabs a lot more fans, especially if he restricts our budget for the next 10 years.

[notin]

Just win and the fans will come or watch on TV.

 

We have some big stars already. I don’t think Correa grabs a lot more fans, especially if he restricts our budget for the next 10 years.

 

Plus his antics when getting a big hit are very off putting…

[moonslav59]

Plus his antics when getting a big hit are very off putting…

 

Being from Houston, I’ve seen him more than any other Non Sox SS. The guy is very good, but yes, not all that likable.

Edited December 9, 2021 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

Mookie's "down" year in 2017 still was 803 and 5.3 fWAR. Mookie was the same age when dealt. Correa is a very good player, Mookie is a great player. It would make no sense to take money that should have gone to Mookie and give it to Correa. Big downgrade.

 

Mookie's down year is 2021 now. 3.9 fWAR. 40 games missed. Slight negative ratings in baserunning and fielding, likely due to the assorted injuries.

 

Even Mookie could start tailing off. It's those nagging little injuries like he had in 2021 that could do it.