A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I know it's early, and the new CBA may affect values and who will be spenders.

 

It there is a "floor" put on budgets, we may see some teams spending that never did before.

 

What do people think these FA pitchers will get, this winter, assuming no major changes to the CBA (age on opening day):

 

33 or Older:

 

Here's my guesses without giving it much deep thought...

 

Kershaw (34) $30M x 6

 

Scherzer (37) $33M x 3

 

Verlander (39) $27.5M x 2

 

Greinke (38) $25M x 3

 

R Hill (42) $20M x 1

 

Kluber (35+) $12M x 1

__________________________________

32 or Younger

Syndergaard (29) $30M x 7

 

Gausman (31) $27.5M x 6

 

R Ray (30) $25M x 7

 

Stroman (30) $22.5M x 6

 

ERod (28+) $20M x 6

 

Kikuchi (28 option) $20M x 5

 

If these contracts are what these guys get, who do you want?

 

 

At a glance, I don't want any of them at those prices for more than three years, and I doubt Bloom does, either (and that's why the Sox may not get any of those named). If I had to pick, I'd take the first four 32 or Younger guys, but only for 3-year contracts.

[harmony]

At a glance, I don't want any of them at those prices for more than three years, and I doubt Bloom does, either (and that's why the Sox may not get any of those named). If I had to pick, I'd take the first four 32 or Younger guys, but only for 3-year contracts.

Noah Syndergaard has not pitched at the MLB level since 2019 when the righthander posted a 4.28 ERA and a 96 ERA+ in 32 starts:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/syndeno01.shtml

 

Syndergaard is unlikely to land a $210 million contract.

 

MLB Trade Rumors does not list Syndergaard among the top 10 free agents in the 2021-22 offseason:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/03/2021-22-mlb-free-agent-power-rankings.html

Edited September 13, 2021 by harmony

[moonslav59]

At a glance, I don't want any of them at those prices for more than three years, and I doubt Bloom does, either (and that's why the Sox may not get any of those named). If I had to pick, I'd take the first four 32 or Younger guys, but only for 3-year contracts.

 

Why would they take a 3 year deal?

 

This is why I think we go after Scherzer, Verlander or Greinke.

 

2-3 years deals are more likely and less dangerous, despite their ages.

[moonslav59]

Noah Syndergaard has not pitched at the MLB level since 2019 when the righthander posted a 4.28 ERA and a 96 ERA+ in 32 starts:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/syndeno01.shtml

 

Syndergaard is unlikely to land a $210 million contract.

 

Probably right. He may take a 1 year deal to try and prove he can pitch well, but my guess is, someone takes a wild chance on him.

[Bellhorn04]

Probably right. He may take a 1 year deal to try and prove he can pitch well, but my guess is, someone takes a wild chance on him.

 

I wonder what is the biggest contract ever given to a pitcher who hasn't pitched in 2 whole seasons.

[moonslav59]

I wonder what is the biggest contract ever given to a pitcher who hasn't pitched in 2 whole seasons.

 

Rich Hill got $16M x 3 (2017-2019) after putting up these numbers (in backwards chronological order:)

 

IP

110

29

39

8

4

58

20

195

99

24

 

Anibal Sanchez did pitch 3 seasons with 195-196 IP, but no more than 115 any other season, and he got $16M x 4 in 2013.

 

Eovaldi got $17M x 4 after having just one season over 155 IP (that being in 2014) and only 2 seasons over 125 IP.

 

[Bellhorn04]

Rich Hill got $16M x 3 (2017-2019) after putting up these numbers (in backwards chronological order:)

 

IP

110

29

39

8

4

58

20

195

99

24

 

Anibal Sanchez did pitch 3 seasons with 195-196 IP, but no more than 115 any other season, and he got $16M x 4 in 2013.

 

Eovaldi got $17M x 4 after having just one season over 155 IP (that being in 2014) and only 2 seasons over 125 IP.

 

 

So someone might cough up a fair chunk for Syndergaard. But there would have to be a 'are you healthy' discount applied. So Syndergaard might be more inclined to take a 1-2 year deal and hope to increase his value.

[moonslav59]

So someone might cough up a fair chunk for Syndergaard. But there would have to be a 'are you healthy' discount applied. So Syndergaard might be more inclined to take a 1-2 year deal and hope to increase his value.

 

Of course. I just threw those numbers out there to see who posters wanted, not really to argue about the numbers, but that number I put for Syndergaard is probably the most uncertain of all.

[harmony]

So someone might cough up a fair chunk for Syndergaard. But there would have to be a 'are you healthy' discount applied. So Syndergaard might be more inclined to take a 1-2 year deal and hope to increase his value.

Seattle is a landing spot for pitchers coming back from Tommy John surgery ... and the Mariners have money to spend.

[oldtimer]

I know it's early, and the new CBA may affect values and who will be spenders.

 

It there is a "floor" put on budgets, we may see some teams spending that never did before.

 

What do people think these FA pitchers will get, this winter, assuming no major changes to the CBA (age on opening day):

 

33 or Older:

 

Here's my guesses without giving it much deep thought...

 

Kershaw (34) $30M x 6

 

Scherzer (37) $33M x 3

 

Verlander (39) $27.5M x 2

 

Greinke (38) $25M x 3

 

R Hill (42) $20M x 1

 

Kluber (35+) $12M x 1

__________________________________

32 or Younger

Syndergaard (29) $30M x 7

 

Gausman (31) $27.5M x 6

 

R Ray (30) $25M x 7

 

Stroman (30) $22.5M x 6

 

ERod (28+) $20M x 6

 

Kikuchi (28 option) $20M x 5

 

If these contracts are what these guys get, who do you want?

 

 

I have an allied question. Do you think the Rays, who are one of the most consistently winning teams these past few years, take on any of these pitchers under these contract terms. I don't think they would yet they continue to win. Other teams need to consider the Rays example before shelling out big for these guys.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Why would they take a 3 year deal?

 

This is why I think we go after Scherzer, Verlander or Greinke.

 

2-3 years deals are more likely and less dangerous, despite their ages.

 

They won't, which is why I said I don't think Bloom signs any. Unless, that is, there's major upheaval in the new CBA... or the owners collude or lock them out again.

[moonslav59]

I have an allied question. Do you think the Rays, who are one of the most consistently winning teams these past few years, take on any of these pitchers under these contract terms. I don't think they would yet they continue to win. Other teams need to consider the Rays example before shelling out big for these guys.

 

I don't see the Rays signing anyone on this list, except maybe Rich Hill, again, but only if his price falls.

 

Then, they'll trade him again.

 

It's easier said than done of copying how the Jays do it.

 

If we follow their model, we'll trade Bogey for some pitching prospects-one of which will be a Cy Young candidate, soon.

[moonslav59]

They won't, which is why I said I don't think Bloom signs any. Unless, that is, there's major upheaval in the new CBA... or the owners collude or lock them out again.

 

I think he'll sign Scherzer, Verlander or Greinke to 3 or less years.

[moonslav59]

There is a difference between what I want us to do and what I think Bloom will do.

 

Here is what I think Bloom will do:

 

Sign Scherzer to $90M/3 with a 4th year option at $26M and a $6M buyout. (Essentially: $96M/3 or $116M/4)

 

Sign Schwarber to $75M/5.

 

Sign Ottavino $17M/2.

 

Trade prospects for a solid RPer.

 

QO given and accepted by ERod.

 

JD does NOT opt out.

 

Take options on Richards and Vaz. No options on Perez.

 

2022 Red Sox

 

Scherzer

Sale

Eovaldi

ERod

Pivetta

Seabold

 

Houck

Whitlock

Barnes

Ottavino

__ Trade__

Richards

DHern

Taylor

Sawamura

 

1. Kike 2B/CF

2. Schwarber LF/1B/DH

3. Bogey SS

4. Devers 3B

5. JD DH

6. Renfroe RF

7. Verdugo CF/LF or Dalbec 1B/3B/DH

8. Dalbec 1B/3B/DH of Arroyo 2B/SS

9. Vaz or Plawecki C

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

There is a difference between what I want us to do and what I think Bloom will do.

 

Here is what I think Bloom will do:

 

Sign Scherzer to $90M/3 with a 4th year option at $26M and a $6M buyout. (Essentially: $96M/3 or $116M/4)

 

Sign Schwarber to $75M/5.

 

Sign Ottavino $17M/2.

 

Trade prospects for a solid RPer.

 

QO given and accepted by ERod.

 

JD does NOT opt out.

 

Take options on Richards and Vaz. No options on Perez.

 

2022 Red Sox

 

Scherzer

Sale

Eovaldi

ERod

Pivetta

Seabold

 

Houck

Whitlock

Barnes

Ottavino

__ Trade__

Richards

DHern

Taylor

Sawamura

 

1. Kike 2B/CF

2. Schwarber LF/1B/DH

3. Bogey SS

4. Devers 3B

5. JD DH

6. Renfroe RF

7. Verdugo CF/LF or Dalbec 1B/3B/DH

8. Dalbec 1B/3B/DH of Arroyo 2B/SS

9. Vaz or Plawecki C

 

 

I can see paying the guy at the top, but I can't imagine a smart baseball officer reinvesting in the same worst defense in baseball. Something's gotta give to improve the overall D. And it may have to be a big trade that brings in new regulars at more than one position.

[Nick]

There is a difference between what I want us to do and what I think Bloom will do.

 

Here is what I think Bloom will do:

 

Sign Scherzer to $90M/3 with a 4th year option at $26M and a $6M buyout. (Essentially: $96M/3 or $116M/4)

 

Sign Schwarber to $75M/5.

 

Sign Ottavino $17M/2.

 

Trade prospects for a solid RPer.

 

QO given and accepted by ERod.

 

JD does NOT opt out.

 

Take options on Richards and Vaz. No options on Perez.

 

2022 Red Sox

 

Scherzer

Sale

Eovaldi

ERod

Pivetta

Seabold

 

Houck

Whitlock

Barnes

Ottavino

__ Trade__

Richards

DHern

Taylor

Sawamura

 

1. Kike 2B/CF

2. Schwarber LF/1B/DH

3. Bogey SS

4. Devers 3B

5. JD DH

6. Renfroe RF

7. Verdugo CF/LF or Dalbec 1B/3B/DH

8. Dalbec 1B/3B/DH of Arroyo 2B/SS

9. Vaz or Plawecki C

 

 

Off top of my head...

 

You're adding $72M to payroll

 

Losing

$13.25M Pedey

$08.30M E Rod

$07.12M Ottavino

$06.00M Perez

$03.00M Marwin

 

$37.67M

$10.00M Richards (you honestly believe we'll get someone back?) I'd say we pay half of his salary and get a run of mill single A player.

$47.67M

 

Net increase of $25M before paying arbitration raises....

 

Not unrealistic I guess...

[moonslav59]

I can see paying the guy at the top, but I can't imagine a smart baseball officer reinvesting in the same worst defense in baseball. Something's gotta give to improve the overall D. And it may have to be a big trade that brings in new regulars at more than one position.

 

I'm hoping we improve the D, but I think it gets put off a year.

 

Maybe we trade Bogey, but I seriously doubt it.

[Larry Cook]

Off top of my head...

 

You're adding $72M to payroll

 

Losing

$13.25M Pedey

$08.30M E Rod

$07.12M Ottavino

$06.00M Perez

$03.00M Marwin

 

$37.67M

$10.00M Richards (you honestly believe we'll get someone back?) I'd say we pay half of his salary and get a run of mill single A player.

$47.67M

 

Net increase of $25M before paying arbitration raises....

 

Not unrealistic I guess...

 

Is there a different version of hang’em Chaim that you guys are seeing than what we saw last offseason?

 

1.) sherzer wants to be on the west coast.

 

2.) hang’em Chaim shops at the dollar tree not neuman Marcus.

 

3.) hang’em Chaim has shown a bizarre habit of focusing dollars on offense and spare change on pitching.

[moonslav59]

Off top of my head...

 

$10.00M Richards (you honestly believe we'll get someone back?) I'd say we pay half of his salary and get a run of mill single A player.

 

I did not say trade Richards.

 

I think we pay $10M to keep him rather than $1.5M to let him go on the buyout.

 

Close calls, as are a few other items listed, here.

[Hugh2]

I don’t think Scherzer is realistic. This will be his last contract and he wants to go on the west coast.

 

I think they still plan on moving Whitlock to the rotation next year. I don’t think both of JDM not opting out and Schwarber extended happen. I think only one does.

[moonslav59]

I don’t think Scherzer is realistic. This will be his last contract and he wants to go on the west coast.

 

I think they still plan on moving Whitlock to the rotation next year.

 

You think Scherzer gets more than what I suggested?

 

I think Whitlock will be a starter in 2022, but we will add a SP'er, IMO.

[Larry Cook]

You think Scherzer gets more than what I suggested?

 

I think Whitlock will be a starter in 2022, but we will add a SP'er, IMO.

 

Why would Hang’em Chaim mess with a good thing and move Whitlock to the rotation?

[redsoxrules]

What's with people wanting to trade Bogey? He's a 5 WAR player every year and his contract is a bargain for his production. I honestly don't get this.

[redsoxrules]

I'd would stay away from Marcus Semien. He's having a career year and will never duplicate this. Some teams will throw a bunch a money at him. They can have him. Scherzer won't sign here and will most likely sign with the Dodgers as they have endless money over there and not afraid to spend it. As another poster mentioned Bloom will not give out big contracts and will look for bargains like he did with Renfroe

[Bellhorn04]

What's with people wanting to trade Bogey? He's a 5 WAR player every year and his contract is a bargain for his production. I honestly don't get this.

 

It all started because he has an opt out after 2022 and there seems a good chance he'll exercise it.

[Hugh2]

You think Scherzer gets more than what I suggested?

 

I think Whitlock will be a starter in 2022, but we will add a SP'er, IMO.

 

I think he gets about that, not sure about the 4th year though. I just don't think he's going to get that in Boston.

[Hugh2]

It all started because he has an opt out after 2022 and there seems a good chance he'll exercise it.

 

Exactly, which is why I like the idea of signing a replacement for Bogey this year in a class that is going to be much deeper at shortstop than the following year. Move Bogey to 2B for the year, it might actually help his market if he can flash plus there if teams think his defense is going to decline at SS.

Edited September 14, 2021 by A Red Sox fan named Hugh

[Bellhorn04]

I think he gets about that, not sure about the 4th year though. I just don't think he's going to get that in Boston.

 

The Dodgers will pay whatever it takes for Scherzer.

[a700hitter]

I don’t see Bloom going after any big established star. He will be rooting around in the value bin, hitting on some and busting on others.

[notin]

What's with people wanting to trade Bogey? He's a 5 WAR player every year and his contract is a bargain for his production. I honestly don't get this.

 

Because he is very likely to opt out of his contract after 2022. And this is the ideal off-season to find a replacement shortstop with Correa, Baez, Story, Seager, Crawford, and Simmons all reaching free agency...