A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[mvp 78]

Kike himself has only been a 230 hitter his past 6 seasons,and while he had some real hot stretches last year he only finished a 250 hitter, so take away the real hot stretches that he had last year that he might not do this year, and you don’t have someone as great as what some viewed him on here.

 

WRC+ 103 for the past 4 seasons. WRC+ 101 for his career. He's the proverbial sparkplug who has memorable moments, but whose overall stats are just average.

 

Average bat, plus defense and he can play multiple positions.

 

He's not an All Star. He's not going to have his uni retired. He's has an important role on this team though.

[mvp 78]

Exactly. That's why it's fun.

 

It's definitely a change from the low risk low reward moves of the past few years.

[Bellhorn04]

WRC+ 103 for the past 4 seasons. WRC+ 101 for his career. He's the proverbial sparkplug who has memorable moments, but whose overall stats are just average.

 

Average bat, plus defense and he can play multiple positions.

 

He's not an All Star. He's not going to have his uni retired. He's has an important role on this team though.

 

And let's not forget - he's clutch! .900 postseason OPS in 69 games, 194 PA's.

[Bellhorn04]

It's definitely a change from the low risk low reward moves of the past few years.

 

But you know, it's what, about $20 million at risk?

 

To me that's still a pretty small risk compared to some we've seen.

[mvp 78]

And let's not forget - he's clutch! .900 postseason OPS in 69 games, 194 PA's.

 

Players with memorable postseason performances:

Kiké

JBJ

 

Players with NO memorable postseason performances:

Hunter Renfroe

[notin]

His offense was absolutely putrid last season. I don't think anyone knows if it was an aberration or just due to being the wrong side of 30.

 

Renfroe for JBJ and 2 prospects only makes sense if Bloom believes in a bounce back AND he really likes the prospects. Of all the moves he's made, this is the one that could blow up in his face.

 

Or maybe he believes Renfroe has peaked and is due to step back?

 

But then Bloom has a very brief history filled with moves (trading for Pivetta, signing Hernandez, drafting Yorke) that seem questionable at first but end up paying off relatively quickly…

[mvp 78]

But you know, it's what, about $20 million at risk?

 

To me that's still a pretty small risk compared to some we've seen.

 

It's only a big risk if they are firm on not going over the cap this season.

[mvp 78]

Or maybe he believes Renfroe has peaked and is due to step back?

 

But then Bloom has a very brief history filled with moves (trading for Pivetta, signing Hernandez, drafting Yorke) that seem questionable at first but end up paying off relatively quickly…

 

Even taking a scrap heap flier on Renfroe worked out. I do have more faith in Bloom's decision process than DD's.

 

I'm not sure if he believes Renfroe will take a step back, but that maybe his value is going to be lapped by his ARB $$$.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not sure if he believes Renfroe will take a step back, but that maybe his value is going to be lapped by his ARB $$$.

 

^^^

[notin]

Even taking a scrap heap flier on Renfroe worked out. I do have more faith in Bloom's decision process than DD's.

 

I'm not sure if he believes Renfroe will take a step back, but that maybe his value is going to be lapped by his ARB $$$.

 

 

Also possible, although that hopefully doesn’t create an unpopular precedent. I hope Bloom doesn’t find it necessary to trade off every cheap flier who pays immediate dividends so hastily…

[notin]

That was a single season, too.

 

It's a tough call, but I like Kike in CF and JBJ in RF (platoon?).

 

I'm higher on Arroyo than most here.

 

 

My opinion of Arroyo might be better if he could maybe play baseball without maiming himself…

[Bellhorn04]

Also possible, although that hopefully doesn’t create an unpopular precedent. I hope Bloom doesn’t find it necessary to trade off every cheap flier who pays immediate dividends so hastily…

 

Chalk it up to the peculiar compensation structure of MLB.

 

Renfroe made 3.1 mill in 2021 but is projected to make 7.6 mill in 2022. That's a 145% increase the team has no control over.

 

And a similar raise can probably be expected for 2023.

[moonslav59]

The big question with JBJ is not about his D, but can he hit. I didn’t like the trade to bring back when it happened, and I still don’t like it now. There had to be better options out there, and cheaper ones at that, and maybe even someone who batted RH. I know Kike is Moon’s boy, and nothing wrong with that, but like I said can LBJ hit that will be the big decider.

 

No doubt, JBJ can still defend very well. My point was designed to show that I don't think he's the same as we remembered him in his peak years (2014-2018). Yes, he put up great defensive metrics in 2021, so maybe I'm overstating that point. The fact is, his 9 year career, based on 3 year intervals, shows steady declines in UZR/150 and DRS per inning in CF. My own personal observations do not necessarily coincide with such the somewhat steep decline his metrics show.

 

One point needs to be made concerning JBJ's defense: declining slightly from greatness can still be great.

 

It will come down to his offense, but this whole defense discussion was geared towards Kike vs JBJ in CF or RF. If Kike plays 2B, there is no debate. If JBJ plays, he's in CF. Period.

 

I also realize I'm basing my opinion on Kike over a rather small sample size in 2021. However, a 1500 innings sample size is pretty significant, even if scattered over 6 seasons.

 

MLB CF'ers with 1500+ innings in CF since 2016:

16.2 Bader (39 DRS in 2881 innings)

15.1 Kiermaier (93 in 4739)

11.3 Hamilton (49 in 4517)

10.9 Kike (16 in 1532 or 1 per 96 inning)

10.7 Buxton (55 in 3664)

 

12. JBJ at 6.1 (43 in 6157 or 1 per 143 inning)

 

[moonslav59]

Kike himself has only been a 230 hitter his past 6 seasons,and while he had some real hot stretches last year he only finished a 250 hitter, so take away the real hot stretches that he had last year that he might not do this year, and you don’t have someone as great as what some viewed him on here.

 

Did many pump up his offense, last season?

 

(Yes, some commented on his great 2nd half.)

[mvp 78]

My opinion of Arroyo might be better if he could maybe play baseball without maiming himself…

 

^^^

[mvp 78]

Also possible, although that hopefully doesn’t create an unpopular precedent. I hope Bloom doesn’t find it necessary to trade off every cheap flier who pays immediate dividends so hastily…

 

I can't be mad if the worst thing Bloom does is try to sell high on a player. The Hunter Renfroe's of the world are fungible. That 1.8 fWAR shouldn't be a bear to replace.

[moonslav59]

My opinion of Arroyo might be better if he could maybe play baseball without maiming himself…

 

I think we all feel that way to some extent.

[moonslav59]

I can't be mad if the worst thing Bloom does is try to sell high on a player. The Hunter Renfroe's of the world are fungible. That 1.8 fWAR shouldn't be a bear to replace.

 

Players like Renfroe are non tendered every year by the Rays.

[Old Red]

And yet you're worried about losing Renfroe's bat, because of the 96 RBI, despite the fact Hunter is a 237 career hitter?

 

Who is worried about Renfroe’s bat? I was all for trading Renfroe, but just not for JBJ, and that contract. If the Sox wanted JBJ so bad then why didn’t they just resign him in the first place? I still say that the Sox would not have offered JBJ the contract he got from the Brewers, and then they took it on anyway. And like I said before about the prospects I could care less, because they might not contribute anything to the Red Sox in the future just like the prospects the Sox got from the Dodgers for Mookie. Quantity does not mean quality.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Who is worried about Renfroe’s bat? I was all for trading Renfroe, but just not for JBJ, and that contract. If the Sox wanted JBJ so bad then why didn’t they just resign him in the first place? I still say that the Sox would not have offered JBJ the contract he got from the Brewers, and then they took it on anyway. And like I said before about the prospects I could care less, because they might not contribute anything to the Red Sox in the future just like the prospects the Sox got from the Dodgers for Mookie. Quantity does not mean quality.

 

It's hard for me to think there will ever be another deal with the potential to nuke Bloom's face more than the Mookie trade. People can point to Betts' bum hip last season, but he's already won the World Series for the Dodgers, has been great in two postseasons, and very nearly won another MVP (second to Freeman in '20). Meanwhile, Verdugo looks pretty good; the other two, meh... Right now what is more likely: that Verdugo will someday have a year like Mookie's 2020, or that Mookie will have another one?

 

Before people complain about the cost of Betts or that they know personally he was definitely going to leave Boston no matter what, I'm just looking at the exchange of talent. For me, the best part of the trade will always be that Bloom got rid of Price.

[Old Red]

It's hard for me to think there will ever be another deal with the potential to nuke Bloom's face more than the Mookie trade. People can point to Betts' bum hip last season, but he's already won the World Series for the Dodgers, has been great in two postseasons, and very nearly won another MVP (second to Freeman in '20). Meanwhile, Verdugo looks pretty good; the other two, meh... Right now what is more likely: that Verdugo will someday have a year like Mookie's 2020, or that Mookie will have another one?

 

Before people complain about the cost of Betts or that they know personally he was definitely going to leave Boston no matter what, I'm just looking at the exchange of talent. For me, the best part of the trade will always be that Bloom got rid of Price.

 

Getting partly rid of Price was good, but they are still paying a good chunk of the contract. Some people are just so excited about getting prospects back. Verdugo is a good player, but you almost never get back equal value for a super star, and prospects are just that unless they turn into something productive.

[Bellhorn04]

Who is worried about Renfroe’s bat? I was all for trading Renfroe, but just not for JBJ, and that contract. If the Sox wanted JBJ so bad then why didn’t they just resign him in the first place? I still say that the Sox would not have offered JBJ the contract he got from the Brewers, and then they took it on anyway. And like I said before about the prospects I could care less, because they might not contribute anything to the Red Sox in the future just like the prospects the Sox got from the Dodgers for Mookie. Quantity does not mean quality.

 

No offense, but I trust Bloom's evaluation of prospects a lot more than yours.

[Bellhorn04]

Before people complain about the cost of Betts or that they know personally he was definitely going to leave Boston no matter what, I'm just looking at the exchange of talent. For me, the best part of the trade will always be that Bloom got rid of Price.

 

You can't just look at the exchange of talent though. If that's you all you look at, then sure, you're not going to win a trade of Mookie Betts.

[Old Red]

No offense, but I trust Bloom's evaluation of prospects a lot more than yours.

 

But that where I differ from so many on here. I could care less about a prospect until they show up a Fenway in a RedSox uniform, and produce, and so far the prospects the Sox got for Betts, or JBJ have not done that, so if, and until they do in the big scheme of things don’t mean a whole heck of a lot except to say we got prospects.

[mvp 78]

It's hard for me to think there will ever be another deal with the potential to nuke Bloom's face more than the Mookie trade. People can point to Betts' bum hip last season, but he's already won the World Series for the Dodgers, has been great in two postseasons, and very nearly won another MVP (second to Freeman in '20). Meanwhile, Verdugo looks pretty good; the other two, meh... Right now what is more likely: that Verdugo will someday have a year like Mookie's 2020, or that Mookie will have another one?

 

Before people complain about the cost of Betts or that they know personally he was definitely going to leave Boston no matter what, I'm just looking at the exchange of talent. For me, the best part of the trade will always be that Bloom got rid of Price.

 

I throw that one out the window because I believe it was forced on him by ownership.

[Old Red]

I throw that one out the window because I believe it was forced on him by ownership.

 

There is no doubt Bloom was forced to get rid of Mookie, but I think he could have done a better job with the return he got like some pitching.

[moonslav59]

Remember, it was just one year of team control vs several years of Verdugo and some promise from the prospects.

[Old Red]

Remember, it was just one year of team control vs several years of Verdugo and some promise from the prospects.

 

There you go with that prospect word again. The way I look at it is Mookie, and Price were traded for Verdugo, and the Sox are paying a good part of Price’s contract, and Renfroe was traded for JBJ. Now if any of these prospects turn out to be something then the situation will change, but until it does, or if it does the prospects outside of filling out a minor league roster are nothing more than that.

[moonslav59]

There you go with that prospect word again. The way I look at it is Mookie, and Price were traded for Verdugo, and the Sox are paying a good part of Price’s contract, and Renfroe was traded for JBJ. Now if any of these prospects turn out to be something then the situation will change, but until it does, or if it does the prospects outside of filling out a minor league roster are nothing more than that.

 

Prospects is not a dirty word.

 

FYI, I didn't like the JBJ trade.

 

Yes, we still paid half of Price's deal, but we shed half, too. He was a sunken cost. It was good we dumped him.

 

This has all been litigated 100 times over.

[Old Red]

Prospects is not a dirty word.

 

FYI, I didn't like the JBJ trade.

 

Yes, we still paid half of Price's deal, but we shed half, too. He was a sunken cost. It was good we dumped him.

 

This has all been litigated 100 times over.

 

I already knew all of this, and I didn’t say prospects was a dirty word, but only that they don’t mean anything to me unless they get to Fenway Park in a Red Sox uniform, and produce, and that is my main point, which is different from everyone else.

I remember very well you didn’t like the JBJ trade, and caused a big stir when you scratched your head.