A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[moonslav59]

Since Yaz joined the Sox in 1961, here are the fWAR leaders since then (51 years):

 

94.8 Yaz

70.8 Boggs

64.3 Evans

50.8 Rice

48.8 Papi

46.6 Pedey

39.4 Petrocelli

38.9 Nomar

38.3 Fisk

37.2 Betts

32.0 Reggie Smith

31.6 Bogey

31.2 Valentin

30.7 Lynn

29.6 Manny

28.9 Youk

27.6 Mo

25.7 Greenwell

22.2 Nixon

 

Top 5 by position: (Some players are counted in multiple positions)

 

C: Fisk, Varitek, Gedman, Vaz, Salty

1B: Youk, Mo, Scott, Gonzalez, Stanley

2B: Pedey, Reed, Andrews, Barret, Mantilla

3B: Boggs, Rico, Valentin, Youk, Devers

SS: Rico, Nomar, Bogey, Valentin, Burleson

LF: Yaz, Rice, Manny, Greeny, Beni

CF: Reggie, Lynn, Ellsbury, Burks, JBJ

RF: Evans, Betts, Nixon, Drew, Tony C

DH: Rice, Papi, JD, Stanley, Easler/Cooper

 

Pitchers

76.8 Clemens

51.9 Pedro

28.5 Tiant

27.8 Lester

26.5 Wake

21.3 Beckett

20.9 Stanley

20.5 Monbouquetta

19.8 Hurst

18.8 Eck

18.3 DLowe

18.2 Sale

18.0 Culp

15.6 Lonborg

15.3 Lee

15.1 Schill

14.6 ERod

14.2 Buch

14.1 Paplebon

13.1 Porcello

12.3 Siebert

11.9 Boyd

11.5 Torrez

10.6 Price

10.1 Radatz, E Wilson & Gordon

 

Overall with 35+ fWAR:

94.8 Yaz

76.8 Clemens

70.8 Boggs

64.3 Evans

51.9 Pedro

50.8 Rice

48.8 Papi

46.6 Pedey

39.4 Petrocelli

38.9 Nomar

38.3 Fisk

37.2 Betts

 

[Bellhorn04]

The only surprise for me is Valentin. Didn't realize he charted that high.

[Old Red]

The only surprise for me is Valentin. Didn't realize he charted that high.

 

Valentin moved to 3rd for some guy named Nomar.

[moonslav59]

I made a long list of all the best fWAR seasons by Sox players since 1961, but it got erased by some site issue.

 

One surprising thing there was that Greenwell's best season topped Rice's best season.

 

[moonslav59]

Best UZR/150 Seasons by Position:

900+ innings

 

RF

27.4 Nixon '05

21.1 Betts '18

20.9 Betts '16

 

CF

25.3 Crisp '07

17.1 JBJ '14

16.1 Ellsbury '11

 

LF

5.8 Beni '18

0.6 Jay Bay '09

0.2 Beni '19

 

1B

11.8 AGon '11

10.7 AGon '12

10.7 Youk '07

 

2B

16.1 Pedey '14

10.1 Pedey '08

9.4 Pedey '17

 

3B

12.1 Mueller '05

11.2 Beltre '10

4.6 Lowell '07 & '06

 

SS

14.6 Alex Gonzalez '06

9.9 S Drew '13

4.7 Aviles '12

 

[moonslav59]

Best fWAR Seasons by Sox players since 1961:

 

11.6 Pedro '99

11.1 Yaz '67

10.4 Betts '18

9.6 Rico '69

9.4 Pedro '00

9.5 Ellsbury '11

9.3 Yaz'68

9.2 Clemens '88

8.9 Boggs '87

8.9 Yaz'70

8.8 Boggs '85

8.6 Boggs '88

8.6 Lynn '79

8.5 Clemens '91

8.4 Clemens '87

8.3 Boggs '89

8.3 Betts '16

8.2 Valentin '95

8.2 Clemens '90

7.9 Pedey '11

7.8 Greenwell '88

7.7 Rice '78

7.7 Boggs '86

7.7 Boggs '83

7.6 Fisk '77

7.6 Sale '17

7.6 Nomar '00

7.6 Clemens '92

7.4 Pedro '03

7.4 Pedro '02

7.3 Nomar '98

7.1 Lynn '75

7.1 Clemens '86

6.8 Clemens '96

6.8 Bogey '19

6.6 Betts '19

6.6 Evans '81

6.6 Fisk '72

6.5 Evans '82

6.5 Schilling '04

6.4 Beltre, Nomar, Pedey

6.3 Ortiz '07, Yaz '63, Nomar '99, Reggie Smith '70, Vaughn '98

6.2 Sale '18, Vaughn '96, Rice '83, Youk '08, AGon '11

6.1 Tiant '74, Boggs 6.1

6.0 Boggs 6.0

5.9 Youk, Devers, JD

5.8 Manny, Nomar, Yaz

5.7 Pedro, Beckett, Lonborg, Fisk

5.6 Eovaldi, Gedman

5.5 Pedro, Rice, R Smith

5.4 Monbouquette, Lester

 

 

Edited February 5, 2022 by moonslav59

[harmony]

"Since Yaz joined the Sox in 1961, here are the fWAR leaders since then (51 years):"

 

FWIW 1961 was 61 years ago.

[Bellhorn04]

"Since Yaz joined the Sox in 1961, here are the fWAR leaders since then (51 years):"

 

FWIW 1961 was 61 years ago.

 

I make errors like that one quite a bit.

[Nick]

Best fWAR Seasons by Sox players since 1961:

 

11.6 Pedro '99

11.1 Yaz '67

10.4 Betts '18

9.6 Rico '69

9.4 Pedro '00

9.5 Ellsbury '11

9.3 Yaz'68

9.2 Clemens '88

8.9 Boggs '87

8.9 Yaz'70

8.8 Boggs '85

8.6 Boggs '88

8.6 Lynn '79

8.5 Clemens '91

8.4 Clemens '87

8.3 Boggs '89

8.3 Betts '16

8.2 Valentin '95

8.2 Clemens '90

7.9 Pedey '11

7.8 Greenwell '88

7.7 Rice '78

7.7 Boggs '86

7.7 Boggs '83

7.6 Fisk '77

7.6 Sale '17

7.6 Nomar '00

7.6 Clemens '92

7.4 Pedro '03

7.4 Pedro '02

7.3 Nomar '98

7.1 Lynn '75

7.1 Clemens '86

6.8 Clemens '96

6.8 Bogey '19

6.6 Betts '19

6.6 Evans '81

6.6 Fisk '72

6.5 Evans '82

6.5 Schilling '04

6.4 Beltre, Nomar, Pedey

6.3 Ortiz '07, Yaz '63, Nomar '99, Reggie Smith '70, Vaughn '98

6.2 Sale '18, Vaughn '96, Rice '83, Youk '08, AGon '11

6.1 Tiant '74, Boggs 6.1

6.0 Boggs 6.0

5.9 Youk, Devers, JD

5.8 Manny, Nomar, Yaz

5.7 Pedro, Beckett, Lonborg, Fisk

5.6 Eovaldi, Gedman

5.5 Pedro, Rice, R Smith

5.4 Monbouquette, Lester

 

 

 

Sure wasted Pedro's incredible 1999 season. He won the only game by the Sox vs Yankees in ALC.

[moonslav59]

Best 5 year stretches by Sox pitchers since 1960. (I only listed the best 5 year period of each pitcher.)

 

fWAR

 

41.3 Pedro 99-03

33.1 Clemens 89-93

22.6 Tiant 72-76

22.3 Monbouquette 60-64

19.5 Lester 08-12

19.0 Beckett 07-11

18.3 Culp 68-72

18.2 Sale 17-21

17.5 Eckersley 78-82

16.6 Hurst 84-88

15.1 Schilling 04-08

13.3 D Lowe 00-04

13.1 Porcello 15-19

13.1 Lonborg 65-69

11.7 Wake 01-05

11.6 ERod 17-21

[moonslav59]

Best 5 year stretches by Sox everyday players. (Players listed only once y best stretch.)

 

42.4 Boggs 85-89

40.1 Yaz 66-70

35.4 Betts 15-19

27.8 Nomar 97-01

26.7 Rico 67-71

26.5 Pedey 08-12

25.4 Lynn 75-79

25.0 Reggie Smith 69-73

24.6 Valentin 93-97

24.3 Papi 03-07

24.2 Vaughn 94-98

23.9 Rice 75-79

23.9 Youk 07-11

23.8 Evans 81-85

23.3 Fisk 74-78

22.5 Manny 01-05

22.0 Bogey 17-21

18.8 Greenwell 87-91

16.8 Nixon 99-03

16.8 Ellsbury 09-13

15.0 VTek 01-05

13.9 Damon 02-06

13.5 JBJ 15-19

13.4 Burleson 76-80

13.2 JD Drew 06-10

12.9 Devers 17-21

12.7 Jody Reed 88-92

12.7 Bressard 60-64

12.1 Gedman 83-87

11.7 Naehring 93-97

11.0 JD 17-21

10.4 Tony C 64-68

10.0 Mike Andrews 67-71

 

[notin]

The only surprise for me is Valentin. Didn't realize he charted that high.

 

Or that Manny was that low..

[notin]

Since Yaz joined the Sox in 1961, here are the fWAR leaders since then (51 years):

 

94.8 Yaz

70.8 Boggs

64.3 Evans

50.8 Rice

48.8 Papi

46.6 Pedey

39.4 Petrocelli

38.9 Nomar

38.3 Fisk

37.2 Betts

32.0 Reggie Smith

31.6 Bogey

31.2 Valentin

30.7 Lynn

29.6 Manny

28.9 Youk

27.6 Mo

25.7 Greenwell

22.2 Nixon

 

Top 5 by position: (Some players are counted in multiple positions)

 

C: Fisk, Varitek, Gedman, Vaz, Salty

1B: Youk, Mo, Scott, Gonzalez, Stanley

2B: Pedey, Reed, Andrews, Barret, Mantilla

3B: Boggs, Rico, Valentin, Youk, Devers

SS: Rico, Nomar, Bogey, Valentin, Burleson

LF: Yaz, Rice, Manny, Greeny, Beni

CF: Reggie, Lynn, Ellsbury, Burks, JBJ

RF: Evans, Betts, Nixon, Drew, Tony C

DH: Rice, Papi, JD, Stanley, Easler/Cooper

 

Pitchers

76.8 Clemens

51.9 Pedro

28.5 Tiant

27.8 Lester

26.5 Wake

21.3 Beckett

20.9 Stanley

20.5 Monbouquetta

19.8 Hurst

18.8 Eck

18.3 DLowe

18.2 Sale

18.0 Culp

15.6 Lonborg

15.3 Lee

15.1 Schill

14.6 ERod

14.2 Buch

14.1 Paplebon

13.1 Porcello

12.3 Siebert

11.9 Boyd

11.5 Torrez

10.6 Price

10.1 Radatz, E Wilson & Gordon

 

Overall with 35+ fWAR:

94.8 Yaz

76.8 Clemens

70.8 Boggs

64.3 Evans

51.9 Pedro

50.8 Rice

48.8 Papi

46.6 Pedey

39.4 Petrocelli

38.9 Nomar

38.3 Fisk

37.2 Betts

 

 

You turned Bill Monbouquette into an Italian!!

[moonslav59]

Or that Manny was that low..

 

His D brought him down.

 

Here's the overall offensive rating from 1960-2021:

 

Sox Top 25 (w PAs)

 

463 Yaz- 13991

398 Papi- 8398

354 Boggs- 7372

341 Evans- 10240

298 Rice- 9058

292 Manny- 4682

211 Mo- 4452

202 Nomar- 4345

195 Betts- 3629

168 Lynn-3513

153 Youk- 3974

140 Fisk- 4353

134 Smith- 4263

118 Greenwell- 5166

115 Bogey- 4758

114 Pedey- 6777

90 Nixon- 3829

89 JD -2177

78 Tony C- 3299

70 Ellsbury- 3204

65 Damon- 2782

62 Devers- 2344

57 Burks- 3132

67 Valentin- 4269

53 Rico- 6170

 

After Rice, there is a big drop off in PAs, except for maybe Pedey & Rico, but even those 2 are far from Rice in PAs.

 

Edited February 6, 2022 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

You turned Bill Monbouquette into an Italian!!

 

He always wanted to be an Italian.

 

(Don't we all?)

[moonslav59]

His D brought him down.

 

Here's the overall offensive rating from 1960-2021:

 

Sox Top 25 (w PAs)

 

463 Yaz- 13991

398 Papi- 8398

354 Boggs- 7372

341 Evans- 10240

298 Rice- 9058

292 Manny- 4682

211 Mo- 4452

202 Nomar- 4345

195 Betts- 3629

168 Lynn-3513

153 Youk- 3974

140 Fisk- 4353

134 Smith- 4263

118 Greenwell- 5166

115 Bogey- 4758

114 Pedey- 6777

90 Nixon- 3829

89 JD -2177

78 Tony C- 3299

70 Ellsbury- 3204

65 Damon- 2782

62 Devers- 2344

57 Burks- 3132

67 Valentin- 4269

53 Rico- 6170

 

After Rice, there is a big drop off in PAs, except for maybe Pedey & Rico, but even those 2 are far from Rice in PAs.

 

How about these numbers per PA:

 

0.062 Manny

0.054 Betts

0.048 Boggs

0.048 Lynn

0.047 Papi

0.047 Mo

0.046 Nomar

0.041 JD

0.039 Youk

0.033 Evans

0.033 Yaz

0.033 Rice

0.032 Fisk

0.031 Smith

0.026 Devers

0.024 Tony C

0.024 Bogey

0.024 Nixon

0.023 Damon

0.023 Greenwell

0.022 Ellsbury

0.018 Burks

0.017 Pedey

0.016 Valentin

0.008 Rico

[notin]

So you're suggesting that Steamer and ZIPS pull their PA projections out of thin air.

 

They either guess or do something really boring like 3 year averages…

[notin]

He always wanted to be an Italian.

 

(Don't we all?)

 

No. No one did. Not even Tony Conigliere…

[Bellhorn04]

No. No one did. Not even Tony Conigliere…

 

Consigliere...

[notin]

Consigliere...

 

I was just trying to de-Italian him (and with a French spin for Mr. Monbouquette). Now you’ve gone and put him in the mafia!!

[harmony]

The Red Sox move up to No. 11 in Baseball America's rankings of farm systems:

 

https://www.overthemonster.com/2022/2/2/22914786/red-sox-top-prospects-organization-rankings-baseball-america-marcelo-mayer-triston-casas-nick-yorke

The Red Sox remain at No. 20 in farm system rankings by columnist Keith Law at The Athletic:

 

https://theathletic.com/3112765/2022/02/07/mlb-2022-farm-system-rankings-keith-law-grades-all-30-teams-on-prospects-with-the-dodgers-at-no-1/

 

Subscription required.

[moonslav59]

The Red Sox remain at No. 20 in farm system rankings by columnist Keith Law at The Athletic:

 

https://theathletic.com/3112765/2022/02/07/mlb-2022-farm-system-rankings-keith-law-grades-all-30-teams-on-prospects-with-the-dodgers-at-no-1/

 

Subscription required.

 

Same as last year, despite adding Mayer, Hamilton, Binelas, Bleis, McDonough. Hickey and others.

 

Houck, Dalbec and Arauz graduated. Whitlock did, too, but he was not highly rated last winter.

[harmony]

Same as last year, despite adding Mayer, Hamilton, Binelas, Bleis, McDonough. Hickey and others.

 

Houck, Dalbec and Arauz graduated. Whitlock did, too, but he was not highly rated last winter.

Keith Law's three-sentence explanation may push the limits of copyright's fair use, but here goes:

It certainly doesn’t hurt when your much-maligned first-rounder from 2020 goes all Tony Gwynn on the minors and you then land the best player in the 2021 draft class while picking fourth. It hurt a bit more to have two of the team’s top hitting prospects endure disappointing years that at least raised some doubts about their hit tools. There’s more pitching on the horizon than there’s been in this system for a long time – they haven’t drafted/signed and developed a major-league starter since Clay Buchholz, whom they drafted in 2005.

https://theathletic.com/3112765/2022/02/07/mlb-2022-farm-system-rankings-keith-law-grades-all-30-teams-on-prospects-with-the-dodgers-at-no-1/

[mvp 78]

Keith Law's three-sentence explanation may push the limits of copyright's fair use, but here goes:

 

https://theathletic.com/3112765/2022/02/07/mlb-2022-farm-system-rankings-keith-law-grades-all-30-teams-on-prospects-with-the-dodgers-at-no-1/

 

That was what I wondered on the other thread. Duran and Downs dropping kinda offset Mayer and Yorke.

[dgalehouse]

I wonder if anyone ever did an examination of just how much , if any, correlation exists between these " official rankings" of farm systems and the near future success of the MLB parent club?

[harmony]

I wonder if anyone ever did an examination of just how much , if any, correlation exists between these " official rankings" of farm systems and the near future success of the MLB parent club?

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/mariners-postseason-hopes-brighten-with-no-1-farm-system/

 

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/all-time-baseball-america-no-1-farm-systems/

Edited February 7, 2022 by harmony

[Bellhorn04]

I wonder if anyone ever did an examination of just how much , if any, correlation exists between these " official rankings" of farm systems and the near future success of the MLB parent club?

 

It'd be a lot of work, but I have no doubt there would be a significant correlation.

 

Can you think of any way it would HURT to have a strong farm?

[notin]

Same as last year, despite adding Mayer, Hamilton, Binelas, Bleis, McDonough. Hickey and others.

 

Houck, Dalbec and Arauz graduated. Whitlock did, too, but he was not highly rated last winter.

 

Nor was Whitlock ever in the Sox farm system. (Ditto Arauz prio to his MLB debut.)

Edited February 7, 2022 by notin

[notin]

It'd be a lot of work, but I have no doubt there would be a significant correlation.

 

Can you think of any way it would HURT to have a strong farm?

 

Yes, if you keep trading your MLB starters to bulk it up. Maybe there’s a reason Baltimore, Detroit and Miami are among the league’s best farm on just about every ranking…

[mvp 78]

Nor was Whitlock ever in the Sox farm system. (Ditto Arauz.)

 

Arauz played 68 games for WOO last year.