A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[Hugh2]

As usual, I think Sox fans are overvaluing its players.

 

Another year older and his lack of defense being exposed (he's not going to increase his 'range' anytime soon), Xander will leave $80M over 4 yrs on the table, including an option if he's healthy.

 

What contender will give him a big raise?

 

What up and coming team will make him the center piece of the rebuild?

 

Give me some names please.

 

Owners want to bring down the luxury tax limit. Will one of them offer Xander substantial raise?

 

Hell, many of the regulars here want to trade him to improve our defense.

 

You don’t think a team will give Bogaerts a raise over 4/80?

[Bellhorn04]

As usual, I think Sox fans are overvaluing its players.

 

Another year older and his lack of defense being exposed (he's not going to increase his 'range' anytime soon), Xander will leave $80M over 4 yrs on the table, including an option if he's healthy.

 

What contender will give him a big raise?

 

What up and coming team will make him the center piece of the rebuild?

 

Give me some names please.

 

Owners want to bring down the luxury tax limit. Will one of them offer Xander substantial raise?

 

Hell, many of the regulars here want to trade him to improve our defense.

 

Lots to unpack here!

 

-The stat nerd sites like FanGraphs and BTV all indicate that Xander is underpaid at $20 million.

-Who out there would give him big bucks? Well, the Angels gave Rendon 7 years at $35 million a year.

-My guess is that the vast majority of Red Sox fans would prefer not to trade him.

-The charge here to trade him is being led by moon. moon is a huge proponent of defense, especially SS defense, and is also concerned about Xander opting out after next year.

[Nick]

Lots to unpack here!

 

-The stat nerd sites like FanGraphs and BTV all indicate that Xander is underpaid at $20 million.

-Who out there would give him big bucks? Well, the Angels gave Rendon 7 years at $35 million a year.

-My guess is that the vast majority of Red Sox fans would prefer not to trade him.

-The charge here to trade him is being led by moon. moon is a huge proponent of defense, especially SS defense, and is also concerned about Xander opting out after next year.

 

Market value is what the willing buyer will pay Xander.

 

We can compare players all we want but just because Rendon gets $35M does not mean Xander automatically gets $30M or $25M.

 

I think our urgent needs are to extend Eovaldi and Devers.

 

I doubt we can afford $30M for Devers and $25M for Xander while we still have Chris Sale on the books. I rather spend the money on pitching. It's about choices.

 

There are many talented defensive shortstops out there. We can prioritize defense at the most critical defensive position. I think we have enough offense as it is.

 

I don't want us to trade him. Just not sure if we have enough money to go around.

[Nick]

You don’t think a team will give Bogaerts a raise over 4/80?

 

Perhaps but I rather use the 'raise' on a pitcher and acquire a solid defensive ss.

[Bellhorn04]

Market value is what the willing buyer will pay Xander.

 

We can compare players all we want but just because Rendon gets $35M does not mean Xander automatically gets $30M or $25M.

 

Absolutely correct. But if we're going to talk about Xander's market value, we have to refer to something, no?

 

It could be that we'll see some reductions in spending by teams, but I've been expecting that for a long time and it hasn't happened yet. The deals given to Tatis and Lindor suggest that teams aren't freaking out about the future just yet...

[Nick]

AL East shortstops

 

Rays....Franco...#1 MLB prospect, 6 years of team control, no need for Xander and a raise on $20M

Jays...Bichette...ops of .805, 4 more years of team control

Yankees...Torres....this maybe a possibility, Yankees had a lousy fielding Hall of Fame ss, Torres has 3 more years of team control after 2021

Orioles.....They can't afford Xander...

Edited September 12, 2021 by Nick

[Nick]

Corey Seager of Dodgers becomes a FA after this year.

He's making $13.75M this year and has the same agent, Boras. Maybe we should go after him. Can we get him for $20M?

 

Carlos Correra of Astros also becomes a FA after this year.

 

He's making $11.7M this year.

 

Tim Anderson of White Sox is signed through 2024 (including 2 options) on a team friendly contract.

 

His AAV is $4.167M. Why would they want Xander? They have enough offense.

 

Oakland A's would not be interested in shortstop making $20M that's looking for a big pay day.

 

Willy Adames of Brewers is making $950K with 3 more years of team control. His ops is .905 in 323 at bats.

 

Brandon Crawford of Giants has two year deal at $32M for 2022/2023.

 

Dansby Swanson of Braves will become a free agent at the end of 2022, his last arbitration year. He's making $6M this year.

Would Braves be interested in Xander?

 

Gregorius of Phillies really stuck it to them garnering a two year $28M deal which will expire after 2022.

Would Phillies look for higher priced FA in Xander?

 

Is Kyle Farmer of Reds playing out of position? He has three more years of team control.

 

Soooo, who is going to give Xander $150M/6 years? Will the Sox bid against itself like we've done in the past? How much is as Bora says being the "face of Red Sox" worth?

 

I think Boras is unofficially negotiating with Red Sox

Edited September 12, 2021 by Nick

[moonslav59]

My guess is Correa goes to the Yanks, and for those who believe clutch is a skill, he's the man you'd want.

 

As for available SSs, this winter, has there ever been such a flood of top players at one key position like SS all reaching free agency at the same time?

 

Here's a look at the top FA (or trade available?) SSs by defense:

 

UZR/150 2018-2021 (DRS):

 

13.2 Simmons (+34) Getting old

5.4 Semien (+13)

5.2 KFarmer (+6)

4.0 TStory (+39)

3.8 Iglesias (-21) Getting old

3.5 J Baez (+46)

1.1 Bogey (-27)

1.0 EAndrus (-17)

0.8 Gregorius (-16)

0.2 Swanson (+12)

-0.1 BCrawford (-11)

-0.7 Correa (+41)

-0.8 Segura (-6)

-1.1 TTurner (+8)

-1.3 WAdames (+3)

-4.0 Anderson (+11)

-7.0 Seager (-3) Better at 3B

 

UZR/150 2020-2021

5.2 Farmer (+6)

4.7 Semien (-5)

4.6 Story (+11)

2.1 Correa (+21)

1.3 Swanson (+5)

1.0 Bogey (-10)

0.6 Adames (+3)

0.4 Simmons (+9 Not what he used to be)

0.2 BCrawford (+3)

0.2 J Baez (+11)

-1.9 Anderson (+5)

-7.4 Iggy (-26 Not what he used to be)

-14.7 Seager (-1)

 

 

 

[harmony]

My guess is Correa goes to the Yanks, and for those who believe clutch is a skill, he's the man you'd want.

 

As for available SSs, this winter, has there ever been such a flood of top players at one key position like SS all reaching free agency at the same time?

 

Here's a look at the top FA (or trade available?) SSs by defense:

 

UZR/150 2018-2021 (DRS):

 

13.2 Simmons (+34) Getting old

5.4 Semien (+13)

5.2 KFarmer (+6)

4.0 TStory (+39)

3.8 Iglesias (-21) Getting old

3.5 J Baez (+46)

1.1 Bogey (-27)

1.0 EAndrus (-17)

0.8 Gregorius (-16)

0.2 Swanson (+12)

-0.1 BCrawford (-11)

-0.7 Correa (+41)

-0.8 Segura (-6)

-1.1 TTurner (+8)

-1.3 WAdames (+3)

-4.0 Anderson (+11)

-7.0 Seager (-3) Better at 3B

 

UZR/150 2020-2021

5.2 Farmer (+6)

4.7 Semien (-5)

4.6 Story (+11)

2.1 Correa (+21)

1.3 Swanson (+5)

1.0 Bogey (-10)

0.6 Adames (+3)

0.4 Simmons (+9 Not what he used to be)

0.2 BCrawford (+3)

0.2 J Baez (+11)

-1.9 Anderson (+5)

-7.4 Iggy (-26 Not what he used to be)

-14.7 Seager (-1)

The Seattle Mariners should keep shortstop J.P. Crawford, the 2020 Gold Glove winner who ranks third among shortstops in Defensive Runs Saved since the start of the 2020 season:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2021&month=0&season1=2020&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2020-01-01&enddate=2021-12-31&sort=13,d

 

Crawford remains under team control for three more arbitration seasons working off his current Super Two salary of $2.05 million. So far this season Crawford has posted 2.4 fWAR, valued at $19 million.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jp-crawford/15491/stats?position=SS#value

 

Noelvi Marte, Seattle's 19-year-old shortstop prospect, is currently the 11th-ranked overall prospect at MLB.com:

 

Top 100 Baseball Prospects | MLB.com

WWW.MLB.COM

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The Official Site of Major League Baseball

[Hugh2]

Corey Seager of Dodgers becomes a FA after this year.

He's making $13.75M this year and has the same agent, Boras. Maybe we should go after him. Can we get him for $20M?

 

Carlos Correra of Astros also becomes a FA after this year.

 

He's making $11.7M this year.

 

Tim Anderson of White Sox is signed through 2024 (including 2 options) on a team friendly contract.

 

His AAV is $4.167M. Why would they want Xander? They have enough offense.

 

Oakland A's would not be interested in shortstop making $20M that's looking for a big pay day.

 

Willy Adames of Brewers is making $950K with 3 more years of team control. His ops is .905 in 323 at bats.

 

Brandon Crawford of Giants has two year deal at $32M for 2022/2023.

 

Dansby Swanson of Braves will become a free agent at the end of 2022, his last arbitration year. He's making $6M this year.

Would Braves be interested in Xander?

 

Gregorius of Phillies really stuck it to them garnering a two year $28M deal which will expire after 2022.

Would Phillies look for higher priced FA in Xander?

 

Is Kyle Farmer of Reds playing out of position? He has three more years of team control.

 

Soooo, who is going to give Xander $150M/6 years? Will the Sox bid against itself like we've done in the past? How much is as Bora says being the "face of Red Sox" worth?

 

I think Boras is unofficially negotiating with Red Sox

 

Seager is probably get paid much more than $20 million per, and he probably won’t be worth it, he has declining defense at SS just like Bogaerts.

 

Id sign Correa this off-season and move Bogaerts to 2nd. If you want a good hitting shortstop who is going to continue playing short stop my money is on him.

[moonslav59]

Seager is probably get paid much more than $20 million per, and he probably won’t be worth it, he has declining defense at SS just like Bogaerts.

 

Id sign Correa this off-season and move Bogaerts to 2nd. If you want a good hitting shortstop who is going to continue playing short stop my money is on him.

 

I've watched the Astros play, a lot- being from the area. I certainly think Correa is a better defender than Bogey, but I'm not sure about him earning the GG and continuing excellent defense.

 

Don't get me wrong, I'd love him on the Sox and Bogey at 3B or 2B, but the D might not be as great as expected.

 

This is a pretty good D:

 

1B: Devers (Dalbec)

2B: Arroyo (Kike)

3B: Bogey (Devers/Dalbec)

SS: Correa (Bogey)

LF: Verdugo (Duran)

CF: Kike (Verdugo)

RF: Renfroe (Verdugo)

(Dalbec at DH)

 

Damn good O, too!

 

Seager should play 3B.

[oldtimer]

I've watched the Astros play, a lot- being from the area. I certainly think Correa is a better defender than Bogey, but I'm not sure about him earning the GG and continuing excellent defense.

 

Don't get me wrong, I'd love him on the Sox and Bogey at 3B or 2B, but the D might not be as great as expected.

 

This is a pretty good D:

 

1B: Devers (Dalbec)

2B: Arroyo (Kike)

3B: Bogey (Devers/Dalbec)

SS: Correa (Bogey)

LF: Verdugo (Duran)

CF: Kike (Verdugo)

RF: Renfroe (Verdugo)

(Dalbec at DH)

 

Damn good O, too!

 

Seager should play 3B.

 

Trevor Story is almost equal to Correa so I would consider him a strong alternative. He is 28 and makes $17 mil. He plays SS but possibly could handle 3rd.

[moonslav59]

Trevor Story is almost equal to Correa so I would consider him a strong alternative. He is 28 and makes $17 mil. He plays SS but possibly could handle 3rd.

 

His numbers look pretty good- both O & D.

 

I don't know him all that well, but he looks like a nice option.

 

I'm thinking we need someone who can play SS more than 3B.

[Noles_1335]

If we really want an upgrade why not dangle Devers out there! Like I’ve said before and have been drilled over the comment! His defense is t going to get any better and he will demand 20-25 a year! Why not look to acquire dominate arms that will be aces or front line starters! Spend that saved cash on arms…. Go ahead kill the idea!

[mvp 78]

If the trade makes sense. Do it.

[moonslav59]

If the return is better, I'd trade anybody, but Devers is the best player we have, so it better be real good.

[mvp 78]

If the return is better, I'd trade anybody, but Devers is the best player we have, so it better be real good.

 

Would need to be MLb talent and prospects.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If the return is better, I'd trade anybody, but Devers is the best player we have, so it better be real good.

 

We have to trust Bloom will be telling potential trade suitors the same thing... as he looks nostalgically at the best team in the league the past two years "getting by" with a 2:1 platoon ratio at third base of Joey Wendle and Yandy Diaz.

[Bellhorn04]

If the return is better, I'd trade anybody, but Devers is the best player we have, so it better be real good.

 

Our cold hearted Talksox GM's would trade anybody plus their own dog.

 

I'm kidding, but these statements of 'trade anybody' always make me chuckle.

 

Chaim Bloom would probably say the same thing. But he would also say that when you trade a player like Devers, or Mookie Betts, you might win it, but there's also an excellent chance you're going to lose it.

[Bellhorn04]

We have to trust Bloom will be telling potential trade suitors the same thing... as he looks nostalgically at the best team in the league the past two years "getting by" with a 2:1 platoon ratio at third base of Joey Wendle and Yandy Diaz.

 

You say 2:1 platoon ratio like there are other platoon ratios.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

You say 2:1 platoon ratio like there are other platoon ratios.

 

Well, I guessed... but since you made me look it up...

 

Pitchers starting five or more games so far in 2021

(Source: b-ref):

 

Righthanders 151

Lefthanders 75

 

Rays games played at third base:

Wendle 98, Diaz 44... which is closer to 70% and 30%.

 

I'd say it may be more economical to trade for a switch-hitter, but a lot of those guys seem to have a stronger side -- though not usually twice as good as their weaker side.

[moonslav59]

Our cold hearted Talksox GM's would trade anybody plus their own dog.

 

I'm kidding, but these statements of 'trade anybody' always make me chuckle.

 

Chaim Bloom would probably say the same thing. But he would also say that when you trade a player like Devers, or Mookie Betts, you might win it, but there's also an excellent chance you're going to lose it.

 

I think any GM would trade anybody for the right return.

[notin]

We have to trust Bloom will be telling potential trade suitors the same thing... as he looks nostalgically at the best team in the league the past two years "getting by" with a 2:1 platoon ratio at third base of Joey Wendle and Yandy Diaz.

 

I seriously doubt Bloom would trade Devers simply because a better team has some platoon at 3b. If Devers does get dealt, the most likely cause is his refusal to sign an extension…

[Bellhorn04]

I think any GM would trade anybody for the right return.

 

Makes perfect sense.

 

But 'the right return' is often a matter of widely varying opinions, with a whole pile of risk involved.

 

If Chaim Bloom is so good that he can win every trade, in theory he should trade everyone this offseason. And then trade the guys he traded for. You see where I'm going with this.

[moonslav59]

Makes perfect sense.

 

But 'the right return' is often a matter of widely varying opinions, with a whole pile of risk involved.

 

If Chaim Bloom is so good that he can win every trade, in theory he should trade everyone this offseason. And then trade the guys he traded for. You see where I'm going with this.

 

I get what you are saying, but it takes two to make a trade, and not all GMs would give back what Bloom would want to "win the trade."

 

Maybe nobody values Devers as much as Bloom.

Maybe everybody values who Bloom wants in return more than Bloom does.

 

I'm not "for" trading Devers, but I'd take Tatis for him, if the Padres were dumb enough to say offer him.

[Hugh2]

Our cold hearted Talksox GM's would trade anybody plus their own dog.

 

I'm kidding, but these statements of 'trade anybody' always make me chuckle.

 

Chaim Bloom would probably say the same thing. But he would also say that when you trade a player like Devers, or Mookie Betts, you might win it, but there's also an excellent chance you're going to lose it.

 

For me, a better way of looking at things is "everyone has a price". I would trade anyone at any time contingent upon return. Which often doesn't make sense, like....how often do you see Ace for Ace trades?

[moonslav59]

I know it's early, and the new CBA may affect values and who will be spenders.

 

It there is a "floor" put on budgets, we may see some teams spending that never did before.

 

What do people think these FA pitchers will get, this winter, assuming no major changes to the CBA (age on opening day):

 

33 or Older:

 

Here's my guesses without giving it much deep thought...

 

Kershaw (34) $30M x 6

 

Scherzer (37) $33M x 3

 

Verlander (39) $27.5M x 2

 

Greinke (38) $25M x 3

 

R Hill (42) $20M x 1

 

Kluber (35+) $12M x 1

__________________________________

32 or Younger

Syndergaard (29) $30M x 7

 

Gausman (31) $27.5M x 6

 

R Ray (30) $25M x 7

 

Stroman (30) $22.5M x 6

 

ERod (28+) $20M x 6

 

Kikuchi (28 option) $20M x 5

 

If these contracts are what these guys get, who do you want?

 

[Bellhorn04]

For me, a better way of looking at things is "everyone has a price". I would trade anyone at any time contingent upon return. Which often doesn't make sense, like....how often do you see Ace for Ace trades?

 

Right. Trades generally fall into certain specific and logical categories.

 

-Trading from an area of surplus for an area of need.

-Trading talent with higher present value and higher salary, in return for talent with lower salary and higher future value.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I seriously doubt Bloom would trade Devers simply because a better team has some platoon at 3b. If Devers does get dealt, the most likely cause is his refusal to sign an extension…

 

I agree with both your sentences. 1) because no one said what you seriously doubt is in any way simple, and 2) because one way to avoid your second conclusion is to preempt any refusal... and Bloom seeing past successes in such matters that are still a success today only make that easier.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Makes perfect sense.

 

But 'the right return' is often a matter of widely varying opinions, with a whole pile of risk involved.

 

If Chaim Bloom is so good that he can win every trade, in theory he should trade everyone this offseason. And then trade the guys he traded for. You see where I'm going with this.

 

Yup, right over the Sunshine Skyway Bridge from St. Pete points south.