A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[mvp 78]

Cora did call Kike the best defensive 2B in MLB, so maybe he doesn't love him in CF as much as I do.

 

Your points here could very well come true.

 

Well, he's wrong.

[mvp 78]

That suggests you hated Bloom's Perez signings.

 

Perez wasn't the 5th starter in 2020.

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, but when your budget is restricted to about $34M and you have about 10-15 slots to fill on the 40 man roster, you have to get somebody.

 

So it's not always hate-worthy to sign a #5 then.

[mvp 78]

Duran has speed and his bat will likely come around. He probably would have made the catch that Verdugo couldn't get to lose the other night and probably the one Santana missed last night that Renfroe saved with his incredible throw. I wouldn't trade either Verdugo, who can hit and play left field or Duran who could fill in and get plenty of PT in 2022. I would find a way to cut JDM loose and play Schwaber primarily in the DH role.

 

Duran gets horrible reads in the OF. There's no way he gets closer to either of those balls.

[Bellhorn04]

Perez wasn't the 5th starter in 2020.

 

He's a #5-ish starter over his career.

[notin]

Duran has speed and his bat will likely come around. He probably would have made the catch that Verdugo couldn't get to lose the other night and probably the one Santana missed last night that Renfroe saved with his incredible throw. I wouldn't trade either Verdugo, who can hit and play left field or Duran who could fill in and get plenty of PT in 2022. I would find a way to cut JDM loose and play Schwaber primarily in the DH role.

 

 

I very much doubt the Sox will cut JD loose. Just because Schwarber has been better lately doesn’t mean JD is a bad player, and certainly won’t absolve the Sox from paying his $19.4 mill salary.

 

If JD so chooses, he will be in Boston for 2022. Schwarber will be the one more difficult to retain…

[Hugh2]

But I have not heard him say that about another player. He was quoted in MassLive...you know with "********, ********, ********"

 

Fair, but how many up and coming prospects do you hear a GM say, “this guy might be special but he might only be as good as a 4th outfielder”

[Bellhorn04]

I very much doubt the Sox will cut JD loose. Just because Schwarber has been better lately doesn’t mean JD is a bad player, and certainly won’t absolve the Sox from paying his $19.4 mill salary.

 

I'm hoping oldtimer didn't mean cut loose in that sense...

[notin]

Fair, but how many up and coming prospects do you hear a GM say, “this guy might be special but he might only be as good as a 4th outfielder”

 

And yet those prospects exist every year. Bubba Starling, anyone?

[moonslav59]

He's a #5-ish starter over his career.

 

...and he signed him again, this winter- as a #5,

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

And maybe he loves Duran.

 

It’s tough to piece together next year’s OF, especially if they do keep Duran. Maybe we see Schwarber at 1b, Kike ar 2b, Verdugo in LF, and Duran in CF…

 

That line-up would probably mean Bloom sold high on Dalbec, which would be both unpopular with fans, and probably the best way to bring back an actually good young arm. It's also makes the most sense -- dealing from strength, with Casas knocking on the door.

[moonslav59]

That line-up would probably mean Bloom sold high on Dalbec, which would be both unpopular with fans, and probably the best way to bring back an actually good young arm. It's also makes the most sense -- dealing from strength, with Casas knocking on the door.

 

I doubt we get a good young arm for Dalbec, unless we add to the package.

 

I doubt many fans are attached to Dalbec, so much so, they'd be upset, if we traded him for a good young arm.

[Hugh2]

I doubt we get a good young arm for Dalbec, unless we add to the package.

 

I doubt many fans are attached to Dalbec, so much so, they'd be upset, if we traded him for a good young arm.

 

Plus you're not getting an ace for Dalbec. You are probably going to get the pitching version of himself. A very live arm that has some holes in his game, maybe it's lack of a 3rd pitch, or a guy who has the stuff buy hasn't found his control yet. Maybe you end up getting lucky with a guy who puts it all together or who develops into a late-inning reliever but it could take you a year or two to see that.

 

We need a rotation for 2022.

[notin]

Plus you're not getting an ace for Dalbec. You are probably going to get the pitching version of himself. A very live arm that has some holes in his game, maybe it's lack of a 3rd pitch, or a guy who has the stuff buy hasn't found his control yet. Maybe you end up getting lucky with a guy who puts it all together or who develops into a late-inning reliever but it could take you a year or two to see that.

 

We need a rotation for 2022.

 

I don’t think Dalbec fills that need unless said rotation help is a salary dump..

[Hugh2]

I don’t think Dalbec fills that need unless said rotation help is a salary dump..

 

If Dalbec is getting you a young pitcher with serious ACE potential it's because he's part of a package that headlines other prospects such as Casas, Mayer, or Yorke +

[Bellhorn04]

BTV has Dalbec with a trade value of only 5.1 mill.

 

Seems like an asset you'd be better off keeping and hoping for bigger upside than that...

[mvp 78]

BTV has Dalbec with a trade value of only 5.1 mill.

 

Seems like an asset you'd be better off keeping and hoping for bigger upside than that...

 

Have they updated recently?

[mvp 78]

And yet those prospects exist every year. Bubba Starling, anyone?

 

Jesus Montero.

[Hugh2]

BTV has to be taken with a huge grain of salt. Any given team could be placing a much higher or lower value than they do on a guy. Plus depth and needs need to be taken into account too. Also how competitive a team currently is will change their value system as well. For example. You could blow away the LA Dodgers in a trade for Walker Buehler but guess what the dodgers aren't trading him. You'd literally have to offer them something stupid like Pivetta/Casas/Yorke/Bello/W. Gonzelez.

[notin]

BTV has Dalbec with a trade value of only 5.1 mill.

 

Seems like an asset you'd be better off keeping and hoping for bigger upside than that...

 

Again, if you take on some cash. That trade value lines up with Matthew Boyd and Joey Lucchezi, for example.

 

But I think the OF is more likely where any trade comes from…

[Bellhorn04]

Have they updated recently?

 

Good question.

[harmony]

BTV has Dalbec with a trade value of only 5.1 mill.

 

Seems like an asset you'd be better off keeping and hoping for bigger upside than that...

BTV currently has 25-year-old Jarren Duran with a surplus value of $34.1 million:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/players/8068/

 

An update might be in order.

 

Or not.

[Bellhorn04]

BTV currently has 25-year-old Jarren Duran with a surplus value of $34.1 million:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/players/8068/

 

An update might be in order.

 

Or not.

 

I would think in-season valuations could be a tad volatile.

[mvp 78]

I would think in-season valuations could be a tad volatile.

 

They apparently do them monthly during the season, but don't do one after the trade deadline (when Dalbec turned up).

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I doubt we get a good young arm for Dalbec, unless we add to the package.

 

I doubt many fans are attached to Dalbec, so much so, they'd be upset, if we traded him for a good young arm.

 

I just meant that while Duran and even Verdugo have struggled lately, Dalbec has really improved, and thus, so has his trade value. A lot can happen in the final 20 games, but if Dalbec stays hot, fans and media will grow more attached to his potential. Two months ago, we couldn't have gotten Mazza, Kickham, Hart or Hall for him.

 

Dalbec is still the most logical trade candidate, as he remains blocked in the near future at 1st, 3rd and DH... unless there's a major blockbuster (I just figured out the literal meaning of the term). And now, he's better than Chavis...

[notin]

I just meant that while Duran and even Verdugo have struggled lately, Dalbec has really improved, and thus, so has his trade value. A lot can happen in the final 20 games, but if Dalbec stays hot, fans and media will grow more attached to his potential. Two months ago, we couldn't have gotten Mazza, Kickham, Hart or Hall for him.

 

Dalbec is still the most logical trade candidate, as he remains blocked in the near future at 1st, 3rd and DH... unless there's a major blockbuster (I just figured out the literal meaning of the term). And now, he's better than Chavis...

 

OPS since August 1

 

Dalbec 1.147

Verdugo .931

Duran .624

 

While Verdugo hasn’t kept with with the torrid pace of Dalbec, I am a bit hesitant to lump him in with Duran under the “Struggling” label…

[notin]

I just meant that while Duran and even Verdugo have struggled lately, Dalbec has really improved, and thus, so has his trade value. A lot can happen in the final 20 games, but if Dalbec stays hot, fans and media will grow more attached to his potential. Two months ago, we couldn't have gotten Mazza, Kickham, Hart or Hall for him.

 

Dalbec is still the most logical trade candidate, as he remains blocked in the near future at 1st, 3rd and DH... unless there's a major blockbuster (I just figured out the literal meaning of the term). And now, he's better than Chavis...

 

And why is Dalbec blocked?

 

They have no one in front of him regularly in MLB and the hot name behind him has an OPS less than .100 better two levels down. Casas hasn’t earned anything yet…

[moonslav59]

I just meant that while Duran and even Verdugo have struggled lately, Dalbec has really improved, and thus, so has his trade value. A lot can happen in the final 20 games, but if Dalbec stays hot, fans and media will grow more attached to his potential. Two months ago, we couldn't have gotten Mazza, Kickham, Hart or Hall for him.

 

Dalbec is still the most logical trade candidate, as he remains blocked in the near future at 1st, 3rd and DH... unless there's a major blockbuster (I just figured out the literal meaning of the term). And now, he's better than Chavis...

 

I've never been one to think GMs significantly change how they value a player over a 1 month sample size. The value may change a little, but not by as much as we may think.

 

Even 2-3 month samples may not move the needle much, unless it's extremely good or bad.

 

As for being blocked:

 

1B is our weakest position.

 

DH is open after 2022.

 

Our 3Bman is being discussed for a positional change.

 

There is more room for Dalbec than Duran in 2022:

 

LF: Verdugo (Cordero), JD in NL Parks

 

CF: Kike

 

RF: Renfroe

Edited September 9, 2021 by moonslav59

[iortiz]

I've never been one to think GMs significantly change how they value a player over a 1 month sample size. The value may change a little, but not by as much as we may think.

 

Even 2-3 month samples may not move the needle much, unless it's extremely good or bad.

 

As for being blocked:

 

1B is our weakest position.

 

DH is open after 2022.

 

Our 3Bman is being discussed for a positional change.

 

There is more room for Dalbec than Duran in 2022:

 

LF: Verdugo (Cordero), JD in NL Parks

 

CF: Kike

 

RF: Renfroe

I think Dalbec will be there and will be just fine at 1b.

[moonslav59]

I think Dalbec will be there and will be just fine at 1b.

 

I do, too.

 

His D needs serious improvement, but I think his bat will be more than fine.