A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1. He took a last place team with a

Historically horrible finish to a playoff contending team.

 

2. He had a budget, and a directive to get the team below the luxury tax threshold.

 

3. He’s spent the last year building up depth in the system, and has returned the minor league system to a top 10 system.

 

4. It’s wildly speculated that the Sox plan on going over the luxury tax after they reset it. This lines up with next year. A team, vastly improved from the year before adding payroll and improving the quality of the big club.

 

There’s no need to change strategy next year, the strategy was a multi year plan all along.

 

Hugh, I agree with 1. and 3., and parts of 2., since there's no evidence of a directive. However, 4. is dubious until it's not. The Red Sox bragged about resetting a year ago, but the wild speculation of going back over has never come from anyone in the organization. For all we know, the owners and their employees may cringe at the concept until fans stop buying tickets.

[notin]

Martinez reportedly has a limited no-trade clause that allows him to block three teams annually.

 

Your post was about JBJ wanting to come back. You even mentioned him by (nick)name…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Also I’d be a bit hesitant to say we advised Bloom last season on anything. I would say with nearly 100% certainty he isn’t even aware of this one little Red Sox forum amongst a sea of similar ones across the expanse that is the World Wide Web. Or, to be more succinct - he doesn’t know we exist…

 

Ha, the offseason advice was to fellow GMs belonging to this board. But I have seen some increasingly blunt advice to the chief officer on the comments page of the Globe Sports Section.

[notin]

Hugh, I agree with 1. and 3., and parts of 2., since there's no evidence of a directive. However, 4. is dubious until it's not. The Red Sox bragged about resetting a year ago, but the wild speculation of going back over has never come from anyone in the organization. For all we know, the owners and their employees may cringe at the concept until fans stop buying tickets.

 

It is possible the team held off on spending heavily for 2021 because any contribution from Sale was unknown, and, as we have seen, he is a very important piece…

[notin]

Ha, the offseason advice was to fellow GMs belonging to this board. But I have seen some increasingly blunt advice to the chief officer on the comments page of the Globe Sports Section.

 

.. which he also likely doesn’t read.

 

There’s a saying in the professional sports world common among coaches and executives - “don’t listen to the fans or you’ll wind up becoming one of them.”

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

.. which he also likely doesn’t read.

 

There’s a saying in the professional sports world common among coaches and executives - “don’t listen to the fans or you’ll wind up becoming one of them.”

 

But we do know Bloom has a twitter department that taunted skeptical tweeters back when Boston led the AL East.

[notin]

But we do know Bloom has a twitter department that taunted skeptical tweeters back when Boston led the AL East.

 

And he possibly had nothing to do with it.

 

Or he was rubbing it in because he didn’t listen to the fans and end up as one of them…

[Hugh2]

Hugh, I agree with 1. and 3., and parts of 2., since there's no evidence of a directive. However, 4. is dubious until it's not. The Red Sox bragged about resetting a year ago, but the wild speculation of going back over has never come from anyone in the organization. For all we know, the owners and their employees may cringe at the concept until fans stop buying tickets.

 

It’s the biggest kept secret, and there’s precedent, from the Sox. With exception of the Dodgers this is what the top 1/4 of teams haves one for a while know. Go over, get under, repeat. Everything this management has shown us, from going over to resetting and then going back over indicates that’s in fact the directive.

 

The Sox are not shy about spending money, but there’s a way they like to do it. They got under to reset and spend. That’s pretty much a forgone conclusion at this point.

[mvp 78]

1. He took a last place team with a

Historically horrible finish to a playoff contending team.

 

The turnaround of this ballclub has been vastly overstated to make it look like Bloom has done an amazing job.

 

1. This team went back to back to back from 2016 - 2018.

2. This team had a mildly disappointing season (after winning 108 games and the WS in the previous year), but was still a contender.

3. In order to get the team under the luxury cap, Bloom traded their best player and a rotation pitcher.

4. Injuries to Sale (known) and ERod (surprise), made the rotation the worst in MLB. Adding only guys like Weber and Mazza to round out the staff was dooming the team to failure.

5. Manager was suspended for 2020.

6. In 2021, ERod came back healthy. Bloom actually brought in a few MLB guys to fill out the roster instead of AAAA guys. Cora came back.

 

It's no surprise that this team had a substantial turn around. It was expected. This was not because amazing moves by Bloom, but just because 2020 was a blatant tank job. This team always had a solid core that could compete year in and year out. They CHOSE not to compete in 2020. It was a choice.

 

I'll give him credit for helping build back the farm through trades and the draft. However, the worst to playoffs argument isn't a very good one to me.

[mvp 78]

Your post was about JBJ wanting to come back. You even mentioned him by (nick)name…

 

Uh, you were the first to mention JBJ. I was just riffing on that.

[notin]

Uh, you were the first to mention JBJ. I was just riffing on that.

 

I know I brought him up, but I just asked if he had an NTC. Apparently JD does, which reduces the likelihood of moving him anyway.

 

No idea if Bradley does, but I’d love him back as a fourth OF if it was at all possible, which I doubt…

[Hugh2]

The turnaround of this ballclub has been vastly overstated to make it look like Bloom has done an amazing job.

 

1. This team went back to back to back from 2016 - 2018.

2. This team had a mildly disappointing season (after winning 108 games and the WS in the previous year), but was still a contender.

3. In order to get the team under the luxury cap, Bloom traded their best player and a rotation pitcher.

4. Injuries to Sale (known) and ERod (surprise), made the rotation the worst in MLB. Adding only guys like Weber and Mazza to round out the staff was dooming the team to failure.

5. Manager was suspended for 2020.

6. In 2021, ERod came back healthy. Bloom actually brought in a few MLB guys to fill out the roster instead of AAAA guys. Cora came back.

 

It's no surprise that this team had a substantial turn around. It was expected. This was not because amazing moves by Bloom, but just because 2020 was a blatant tank job. This team always had a solid core that could compete year in and year out. They CHOSE not to compete in 2020. It was a choice.

 

I'll give him credit for helping build back the farm through trades and the draft. However, the worst to playoffs argument isn't a very good one to me.

 

That was merely a supporting bullet point to my overall point. It’s fair that bloom is not single handily responsible for the turn around.

[Hugh2]

Additionally, even if bloom is only 1% responsible for the turnaround it doesn’t change the reality of their past and current situation. There’s a timing mechanism to this, the fact that the Sox are resetting the same year they’re competing should spell good things for 2022 and beyond.

[moonslav59]

The turnaround of this ballclub has been vastly overstated to make it look like Bloom has done an amazing job.

 

1. This team went back to back to back from 2016 - 2018.

2. This team had a mildly disappointing season (after winning 108 games and the WS in the previous year), but was still a contender.

3. In order to get the team under the luxury cap, Bloom traded their best player and a rotation pitcher.

4. Injuries to Sale (known) and ERod (surprise), made the rotation the worst in MLB. Adding only guys like Weber and Mazza to round out the staff was dooming the team to failure.

5. Manager was suspended for 2020.

6. In 2021, ERod came back healthy. Bloom actually brought in a few MLB guys to fill out the roster instead of AAAA guys. Cora came back.

 

It's no surprise that this team had a substantial turn around. It was expected. This was not because amazing moves by Bloom, but just because 2020 was a blatant tank job. This team always had a solid core that could compete year in and year out. They CHOSE not to compete in 2020. It was a choice.

 

I'll give him credit for helping build back the farm through trades and the draft. However, the worst to playoffs argument isn't a very good one to me.

 

It was not Bloom's choice.

 

While others may be overstating the turnaround, you are understating the turnaround.

 

Many felt it would take 2-4 years to get back to where we are, and that was assuming we'd be over the tax line after 2020 NOT 2021.

[Bellhorn04]

It was not Bloom's choice.

 

While others may be overstating the turnaround, you are understating the turnaround.

 

Many felt it would take 2-4 years to get back to where we are, and that was assuming we'd be over the tax line after 2020 NOT 2021.

 

I don't know about "many". More like a handful of Talksox posters who talked about the cliff a lot, and our Yankee doctor friend.

[moonslav59]

I don't know about "many". More like a handful of Talksox posters who talked about the cliff a lot, and our Yankee doctor friend.

 

It would have been more had they known we weren't going over the tax line 2 years and row, at least.

 

Many felt we'd never hit a cliff due to spending so much.

 

Others spoke in vague terms about rebuilding the farm, like it was an easy thing to do without trading pieces or tanking one year to get Mayer & others.

[mvp 78]

Additionally, even if bloom is only 1% responsible for the turnaround it doesn’t change the reality of their past and current situation. There’s a timing mechanism to this, the fact that the Sox are resetting the same year they’re competing should spell good things for 2022 and beyond.

 

I agree. I just had to get the other part off my chest.

[mvp 78]

I don't know about "many". More like a handful of Talksox posters who talked about the cliff a lot, and our Yankee doctor friend.

 

^^^

[mvp 78]

Anyway, I'm not sure I can come up with a realistic view on the 2022 Red Sox. There are still a lot of moving pieces. Will JD opt out? Will the Sox go over? Are they going to run with a youth movement or supplement with FA? What is the long term plan with Xander and Devers.

 

There are some big questions that remain. I think someone could make the case for this team to win the division next year and the next poster could make a case that is just as strong that they'll only be in 4th place.

[notin]

Anyway, I'm not sure I can come up with a realistic view on the 2022 Red Sox. There are still a lot of moving pieces. Will JD opt out? Will the Sox go over? Are they going to run with a youth movement or supplement with FA? What is the long term plan with Xander and Devers.

 

There are some big questions that remain. I think someone could make the case for this team to win the division next year and the next poster could make a case that is just as strong that they'll only be in 4th place.

 

It’s hard to tell anything about how they’ll finish next year anyway because of that whole “other teams” factor. Toronto has a crazy young core that might continue to improve. Vlad Jr. is less than a year older than Tristan Casas. Not so sure he’s peaked already…

[moonslav59]

Anyway, I'm not sure I can come up with a realistic view on the 2022 Red Sox. There are still a lot of moving pieces. Will JD opt out? Will the Sox go over? Are they going to run with a youth movement or supplement with FA? What is the long term plan with Xander and Devers.

 

There are some big questions that remain. I think someone could make the case for this team to win the division next year and the next poster could make a case that is just as strong that they'll only be in 4th place.

 

It is hard to get a grip on next year, which leaves a lot to be discussed.

 

The JD opt out is not the team's choice, so there is not much to discuss, except will he/won't he or should he/should he not?

 

We can discuss the Richards ($10M/$1.5M buy out), Perez ($6M/$500K buy out) and Vaz ($7M/$250K buy out) team options, in terms of what we like to see done.

 

There are positional moves being discussed, but I doubt anything major, like Devers to 1B or Bogey to 3B/2B are even being discussed by Bloom & Co.

 

There are trade possibilities and of course, FA signings to debate. Not knowing the new CBA or budget limitations makes it hard to figure much out, here, too, but we do have some identifiable high need areas. Nothing wrong with discussing those what ifs.

 

As of now, I have to think we add a SP'er for ERod (or bring him back) and a RP'er for Ottavino as a bare minimum. That would leave this as the foundation to 2022:

 

Sale, _____, Eovaldi, Pivetta, Whitlock, Houck (RP?), Seabold

_____, Barnes, Richards(?), DHern, Taylor, Sawamura, Valdez, Brasier

Vaz, Plawecki

Dalbec (Casas)

Arroyo, Arauz

Devers

Bogey

Verdugo, Duran (Cordero)

Kike (Rosario?)

Renfroe

JD M (Schwarber?)

 

[oldtimer]

It is hard to get a grip on next year, which leaves a lot to be discussed.

 

The JD opt out is not the team's choice, so there is not much to discuss, except will he/won't he or should he/should he not?

 

We can discuss the Richards ($10M/$1.5M buy out), Perez ($6M/$500K buy out) and Vaz ($7M/$250K buy out) team options, in terms of what we like to see done.

 

There are positional moves being discussed, but I doubt anything major, like Devers to 1B or Bogey to 3B/2B are even being discussed by Bloom & Co.

 

There are trade possibilities and of course, FA signings to debate. Not knowing the new CBA or budget limitations makes it hard to figure much out, here, too, but we do have some identifiable high need areas. Nothing wrong with discussing those what ifs.

 

As of now, I have to think we add a SP'er for ERod (or bring him back) and a RP'er for Ottavino as a bare minimum. That would leave this as the foundation to 2022:

 

Sale, _____, Eovaldi, Pivetta, Whitlock, Houck (RP?), Seabold

_____, Barnes, Richards(?), DHern, Taylor, Sawamura, Valdez, Brasier

Vaz, Plawecki

Dalbec (Casas)

Arroyo, Arauz

Devers

Bogey

Verdugo, Duran (Cordero)

Kike (Rosario?)

Renfroe

JD M (Schwarber?)

 

 

By not assigning positions to players you are leaving open the potential for positional moves, mainly to correct defensive weaknesses we have seen this season. I take that position as well. but also think it would be difficult to accomplish. We may need to consider a FA infielder and perhaps trade a stalwart. I hate to even suggest a name in that regard but there are some quality FA's infielders coming available.

 

As far as pitching is concerned I think of Sale as a third starter now, even though he is getting ace money. In my view, another miss on a contract. So I would just do a minor switch to your list.

Eovaldi,__FA__, Sale, Pivetta, Whitlock or Houck, Possibly Seabold (although I want to see him in a ML game before elevating his chances)

__FA__,Barnes, Richards?, Whitlock or Houck, Sawamura, Taylor, D-Hern, Robles or Brasier

 

In general, I think Bloom will want to hang onto his best young prospects but perhaps let go of some who have been high on the list but not showing the expected promise. It won't be easy, but opening the pocket book would help.

[Hugh2]

Chris Sale is your #1 pitcher

[moonslav59]

Chris Sale is your #1 pitcher

 

Devers is your #1 hitter.

Kike is your #1 defender.

Barnes should be your #3 reliever.

[Larry Cook]

Is hang’em Chaim planning on using piggyback starters next year?

 

Seems like he is compiling a stable of piggyback type starters to surround sale with.

[a700hitter]

Is hang’em Chaim planning on using piggyback starters next year?

 

Seems like he is compiling a stable of piggyback type starters to surround sale with.

That will not work out well.

[mvp 78]

Is hang’em Chaim planning on using piggyback starters next year?

 

Seems like he is compiling a stable of piggyback type starters to surround sale with.

 

Sale is a piggyback starter right now.

[moonslav59]

Sale is a piggyback starter right now.

 

I think he’ll get eased up to 95-100 pitches by season end, and when he’s on, that can get him 7-8 innings.

 

Only Eovaldi can be trusted beyond 6 with Sale.

[Bellhorn04]

That will not work out well.

 

You probably like the word piggyback about as much as the word pigpen LOL

[Hugh2]

For 2022 I want to strengthen the starting pitching. The rotation may improve naturally with Chris Sale back to full health and Garrett Whitlock making a successful transition to the rotation, but you may be losing E-Rod as well. First thing I do is offer Erod a qualifying offer, if he turns it down you can effectively target another starting pitcher without losing a draft pick. There's no silver bullet in FA, everyone comes with a level of risk vs. reward. Scherzer is still elite but old, Syndergaard could be the steal of the century but he's coming off of TJ.

 

So my rotation is going to look something like this.

 

Sale

Erod/Gausman/Scherzer/Syndergard

Eovaldi

Pivetta

Whitlock.

 

Next I'm signing a position player that can shore up the defense and elongate a lineup that's too top heavy. I have Carlos Correra in mind, plug him at 2nd with the plan on moving him to SS when Xander walks. Pick up the option on Vazquez and plug Kike into CF.

 

Your lineup becomes

 

Kike CF

Correra 2B

Devers 3B

Bogaerts SS

JDM DH

Verdugo LF

Renfroe RF

Dalbec 1B

Vasquez C

 

If you JDM does not return you can sign Schwarber, which gives you another lefty. Of course you could just sign Schwarber anyways and plug him in LF and move Kike to 2nd.