A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[mvp 78]

Even with only two years left before arbitration, I assume Devers has the best trade value.

 

What pitcher is comparable to Devers in a straight up trade?

 

Giolito per BTV.

[moonslav59]

Moon, I get headaches thinking about pitching for 2022. Not many 'sure' things.

 

I'm not even sure it's worth going over everybody one-by-one. I'd need a page on each!

 

We need some serious staff improvement, and to me, we could help that along, immensely, by greatly improving the defense.

 

I know it looks hard replacing Vaz and maybe Bogey, or moving Bogey and Devers, but that sure simplifies greatly, and I don't use the word greatly lightly, improving the pitching before even spending a dime.

[Nick]

Little perspective on the team we're chasing.

Rays

$08.917M Kiermaier

$06.500M Archer

$06.000M Yashimoto

$04.000M Glasnow

$03.400M Margot

$03.000M Wacha

Red Sox

$25.600M Sale

$22.000M JD

$20.000M Xander

$17.000M Eovaldi

$10.000M Richards (option $)

$08.300M E Rod

$07.150M Ottavino

$07.000M Kike

$05.000M Perez

$04.517M Vaz

$04.500M Barnes (last contract)

$03.100M Renfroe

$03.000M Marwin

 

It will be very interesting to see what we do with Kike after 2022. I think we'll give him a raise and sign him to a long term contract. THAT IN A NUTSHELL WILL TELL US BLOOM NO LONGER OPERATES AS A RAY AND GOTTEN DRUNK ON BIGGER TEAM BUDGET.

 

Rays the best run team will NOT pick up Vaz's option for 2022. They'd go with Wong and live with it. That's how they control cost.

 

We have chance to get rid of everyone but Sale after 2022 and extend Devers. Then build a team around them. Do it.

Edited September 1, 2021 by Nick

[dgalehouse]

Even with only two years left before arbitration, I assume Devers has the best trade value.

 

What pitcher is comparable to Devers in a straight up trade?

 

Even knowing how important pitching is , I would be reluctant to trade a star everyday player for any pitcher.

[moonslav59]

One for one trades per BTV:

 

Devers (77.2)

79.4 Luis Castillo

77.1 Lucas Giolito

72.7 Zach Wheeler

71.2 Aaron Nola

 

 

Bogey (52.4 seems wrong, if he opts out)

51.1 Julio Urias

51.0 S McClanahan

50.2 Dylan Cease

49.6 Tyler Mahle

47.9 Max Fried

43.0 Logan Gilbert

42.9 Jose Berrios

 

Say Bogey is worth 22-25:

25.6 Jose Urquidy

25.3 Dane Dunning

25.2 Logan Webb

24.6 Ole Frankie Montas

23.1 Jesus Luzardo

22.6 Kyle Muller

22.1 Cristian Javier

21.9 Patrick Sandoval

 

Downs (20, also seems high)

23.2 Ryan Wathers

22.2 JT Brubaker

 

Vaz (0- dropped from 20 in April to 11 in June to 0, now)

A bag of used balls

 

[moonslav59]

Even knowing how important pitching is , I would be reluctant to trade a star everyday player for any pitcher.

 

Not me.

 

1. Our system churns out everyday players not pitching

2. FA pitchers are overpaid by more than everyday players

3. Every year, many good starting pitchers have more PAs against than any batter in the history of MLB.

4. Moncada for Sale

[mvp 78]

Little perspective on the team we're chasing.

Rays

$08.917M Kiermaier

$06.500M Archer

$06.000M Yashimoto

$04.000M Glasnow

$03.400M Margot

$03.000M Wacha

Red Sox

$25.600M Sale

$22.000M JD

$20.000M Xander

$17.000M Eovaldi

$10.000M Richards (option $)

$08.300M E Rod

$07.150M Ottavino

$07.000M Kike

$05.000M Perez

$04.517M Vaz

$04.500M Barnes (last contract)

$03.100M Renfroe

$03.000M Marwin

 

It will be very interesting to see what we do with Kike after 2022. I think we'll give him a raise and sign him to a long term contract. THAT IN A NUTSHELL WILL TELL US BLOOM NO LONGER OPERATES AS A RAY AND GOTTEN DRUNK ON BIGGER TEAM BUDGET.

 

We have chance to get rid of everyone but Sale after 2022 and extend Devers. Then build a team around them.

 

If we could only trade our farm system for theirs!

[dgalehouse]

Not me.

 

1. Our system churns out everyday players not pitching

2. FA pitchers are overpaid by more than everyday players

3. Every year, many good starting pitchers have more PAs against than any batter in the history of MLB.

4. Moncada for Sale

 

So many of the pitcher's PAs are in the same game. The player is involved in many more games. Moncada was not a star everyday player. I would not trade a Betts or a Devers for Sale either.

[iortiz]

If we could only trade our farm system for theirs!

 

I think this is why Bloom was hired mainly; to replicate their farm system operations and philosophy.

[Nick]

Vaz (0- dropped from 20 in April to 11 in June to 0, now)

A bag of used balls

 

I'll repeat. Rays would not pick up his option.

[moonslav59]

Vaz (0- dropped from 20 in April to 11 in June to 0, now)

A bag of used balls

 

I'll repeat. Rays would not pick up his option.

 

Only to trade him.

 

Actually, he'd have been traded last winter or before.

[moonslav59]

So many of the pitcher's PAs are in the same game. The player is involved in many more games. Moncada was not a star everyday player. I would not trade a Betts or a Devers for Sale either.

 

I didn't say I would trade Betts or Devers for Sale, even if they had equal contracts.

 

The argument about spread out PAs has merit, but to me, not much. Every PAs counts.

 

If we have a solid rotation, with every starter facing 750-850 batters, that trumps 5 solid hitters getting 625-700 PAs.

 

[moonslav59]

I think this is why Bloom was hired mainly; to replicate their farm system operations and philosophy.

 

I agree- maybe not exactly, but basically to improve the farm system and also how to spot talent on other teams and in their farm system and to know when the right time is to trade a successful vet about to seriously decline at any moment.

[moonslav59]

So many of the pitcher's PAs are in the same game. The player is involved in many more games. Moncada was not a star everyday player. I would not trade a Betts or a Devers for Sale either.

 

Here's a few examples I found:

 

Chris Sale 2017- not even his best year

.603 OPS against in 851 PAs

73 runs allowed in 32 starts (2.90 ERA)

The AL, as a whole, hit .753, so basically, Sale hit .903 over 851 PAs. (.752 + .150- his differential over the league average.) Maybe that's not as good as a few top hitters that year, but the extra 150-200 PAs is huge!

He has mulitple seasons just like this.

.567 in 685 PAs against in '14

.649 in 854 in '15

.651 in 907 in '16 907!!!!

.532 in 617 in '18 That's 200 less than the league OPS!

 

Now, I'll cherry pick one:

Pedro

.536 in 835 PAs in '99 (250 less than the league OPS of .786!)

.473 in 817 PAs in '00 (319 less than the .792 OPS!)

 

Add the differential to the OPS and it's like Pedro hit...

1.036 in 1999 with about 200 more PAs than the average everyday starter.

1.111 in 2000

 

Yes, all bunched in 27-33 games, but still highly valuable.

 

[mvp 78]

Vaz (0- dropped from 20 in April to 11 in June to 0, now)

A bag of used balls

 

I'll repeat. Rays would not pick up his option.

 

Should the Sox?

[moonslav59]

Should the Sox?

 

Yes, if they can trade him.

 

Not so sure, if not.

 

If we can't trade him at $7M, that means GMs don't value him much higher than that... or they can't afford even that amount.

 

If there is a floor on team budgets enacted, then maybe some teams would want him more.

[mvp 78]

Yes, if they can trade him.

 

Not so sure, if not.

 

If we can't trade him at $7M, that means GMs don't value him much higher than that... or they can't afford even that amount.

 

If there is a floor on team budgets enacted, then maybe some teams would want him more.

 

His offense fell off enough this year that he's probably not worth $7M to anyone. This has also been his worst defensive year by far. Sometimes the clock ticks a little more quickly for catchers. He's not playing like a 30 year old. He's playing like a 35 year old.

[Hugh2]

Defense is going to start mattering less for catchers in a year or two. We might start seeing a lot more offense-first guys, give me a bat and a strong arm.

[mvp 78]

Don't pick up Vaz, but sign Yan Gomes?

 

I would imagine the Rays would pick up Zunino's option, but maybe Bloom would try to pry him away?

 

Martin Maldonado can't hit, but you could probably get him for cheap.

 

Go with Manny Pina and save lots of $$$?

[mvp 78]

Defense is going to start mattering less for catchers in a year or two. We might start seeing a lot more offense-first guys, give me a bat and a strong arm.

 

It hasn't happened yet though and there's no guarantee we get there.

[Hugh2]

It hasn't happened yet though and there's no guarantee we get there.

 

Fair, but from all the chatter it really sounds like Robo umps is something both sides are in agreement on. It's almost certainly going to happen.

[mvp 78]

Fair, but from all the chatter it really sounds like Robo umps is something both sides are in agreement on. It's almost certainly going to happen.

 

From your keyboard to god's eyes.

[notin]

Don't pick up Vaz, but sign Yan Gomes?

 

I would imagine the Rays would pick up Zunino's option, but maybe Bloom would try to pry him away?

 

Martin Maldonado can't hit, but you could probably get him for cheap.

 

Go with Manny Pina and save lots of $$$?

 

If defense for catchers is less important, where is Buster Posey on the wishlist?

[moonslav59]

His offense fell off enough this year that he's probably not worth $7M to anyone. This has also been his worst defensive year by far. Sometimes the clock ticks a little more quickly for catchers. He's not playing like a 30 year old. He's playing like a 35 year old.

 

I'm not sure GMs look at catcher offense as much as we do, or how much the weigh just the previous season vs his .798 OPS from 2019-2020.

 

He was 3rd in catcher OPS among all catchers with 700+ PAs (out of 3).

He was 8th in catcher OPS among 28 catchers with 400+ PAs.

 

Vaz is 15th in catcher OPS from 2019-2021 (out of 30 with 600+ PAs)

He's second in catcher PAs at 1333.

His .742 OPS is 40 points higher than the league average of .702.

[mvp 78]

If defense for catchers is less important, where is Buster Posey on the wishlist?

 

Giants have a club option on him. I only wanted to grab realistic solutions.

[moonslav59]

Don't pick up Vaz, but sign Yan Gomes?

 

I would imagine the Rays would pick up Zunino's option, but maybe Bloom would try to pry him away?

 

Martin Maldonado can't hit, but you could probably get him for cheap.

 

Go with Manny Pina and save lots of $$$?

 

I was going to mention Yan Gomes. I don't know much about his staff handling, defense or anything else.

 

I see he has had an OPS over .700 every year since 2017, so he seems way more consistent than Vaz on O.

.761 from 2020-2021

.745 since 2018

.736 since 2017

.723 career, so he's on the up swing, as of now.

 

As far as how pitchers do with him, his main back was Kurt Suzuki- widely known as a great defensive catcher, but here we go... (The non believer can just skip this part.)

 

Corbin

3.94 CERA/.730 OPS Gomes (345 innings)

3.87 CERA/.673 OPS Avila (102)

 

Scherzer

3.47/.671 Gomes (137)

3.19/.661 Avila (700) caught him in DET, too.

2.78/.647 Suzuki (155)

 

Strasburg

3.25/.631 Gomes (116)

3.53/.627 Suzuki (184)

 

Fedde

4.14/.721 Gomes (111)

4.47/.836 Suzuki (54)

4.50/.809 Barrera (38)

 

Fangraphs ranks him 15th out of 49 catchers on defense with 1500+ innings since 2017 (just below Leon and above Mathis). Pina is ranked 13th, Posey 9th, Vaz 5th and Zunino 7th.

Edited September 1, 2021 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Maybe this recent horrific defense by this team has biased me in a way that is not allowing me to see the whole picture, but watching this defense is killing me.

 

It's turning me into a grumpy old man.

 

My apologies for being overly testy.

 

(I still think we need a major defensive overhaul at positions that make for complicated decisions that will not make many fans happy.)

[oldtimer]

Maybe this recent horrific defense by this team has biased me in a way that is not allowing me to see the whole picture, but watching this defense is killing me.

 

It's turning me into a grumpy old man.

 

My apologies for being overly testy.

 

(I still think we need a major defensive overhaul at positions that make for complicated decisions that will not make many fans happy.)

 

Our best defenders now are Kike and Renfroe with Verdugo good but sometimes lacking focus. Maybe Arroyo would fit if he could play more of our games. In Schwaber we have a DH who doesn't need to play in the field very often. The rest of the starting team is substandard defensively. It is a big question to know if some players could be moved and improve their defense.

[moonslav59]

Our best defenders now are Kike and Renfroe with Verdugo good but sometimes lacking focus. Maybe Arroyo would fit if he could play more of our games. In Schwaber we have a DH who doesn't need to play in the field very often. The rest of the starting team is substandard defensively. It is a big question to know if some players could be moved and improve their defense.

 

Renfroe has a great arm, but I'd say he is an average defender at best.

 

I like Arroyo at 2B, and I don't think we can predict he's injury prone.

 

I'm fine with the OF as long as Kike is in CF. I'm fine with 2B. The rest needs fixing. I'm not expecting GG at all 4 slots, but if we can improve 2 or 3, great.

[moonslav59]

Now, a look at the 2022 Pitching Staff. Personally, I'd like to see us acquire and ace or solid #2 and a solid closer as well as another solid pitcher, but this post is about who are under team control, next season.

 

Starters:

 

Chris Sale: Chris Freakin' Sale is all I have to say.

 

Nathan Eovaldi: Has been a rock since 2020, and not many thought he could ever be this durable.

 

Nick Pivetta: Another nice find by Bloom. Ideally, he’d be a number 5, but he may end up being our 4. If he’s our 3, we are shooting for 2023.

 

Connor Seabold: I like this guy's chances as a decent 4 or 5, and maybe over time, even better.

 

Josh Winckowski, Kutter Crawford, Brayan Bello, Chris Murphy, Jay Groome, Frank German & Raynel Espinal all offer decent farm depth, and some may be ML ready during 2022. We could probably use a few depth signings to minor league deals.

 

Starter/Relief Pitchers

 

Garrett Whitlock: I like him as a starter more than Houck, but both could be greats in the role. Blooms best find, for sure.

 

Tanner Houck: Maybe he could fill the obvious hole we have at closer, and some speak of him needing a 3rd pitch to be a good long term starter, but I'd be fine with him in either role, or even as our top set-up or swing man (like Whitlock is now.)

 

Relief Pitchers

Matt Barnes: I'm actually confident he can come back as a very good set-up man for us in 2022, but certainly questions are plentiful.

 

Josh Taylor: He's moved up on the chart, and I'm not sure we can count on him as a solid set-up man, but he will make the opening day roster.

 

Darwinzon Hernandez: His injury came at the wrong time. He still needs to watch the walks, but look what Ottavino can do after walking the first guy he faces nearly every game.

 

Hirokazu Sawamura: I'm not counting on him for much high leverage opportunities, but he should make the 26 man roster.

 

Phillips Valdez, Yacksel Rios, Eduardo Bazardo and maybe Austin Davis and Durbin Feltman may show they belong, and there can be some comfort in numbers of marginal pen help, but let's not slot any of these guys in the 26 man roster, right now.

 

Who are going to leave or are likely to leave?

 

$8.5M Richards ($10M or $1.5M buy out likely) Bye-bye

$8.9M Ottavino Not easy to replace

$8.3M ERod Not easy to replace

$4.5M Perez Bye-bye

$2M H Robles Bye-bye

 

Add these guys up and we have about $34M and just 2 need to be replaced in kind or better: ERod & Ottavino.

 

Edited September 2, 2021 by moonslav59