A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[moonslav59]

One stat that always jumped out at me, well more like a kick in the gut, was how Marwin was top 6 or 7 in PAs. The guy is still 9th and won't likely be passed, unless Arroyo gets 100 more PAs.

 

This got me thinking about how we might gain by subtraction, this winter.

 

Only ERod and Ottavino's slots will be hard to fill.

 

PAs

271 Gonzalez .567

136 Cordero .497

113 Santana .554

82 Chavis .549

 

That's about 600 PAs replaced by more from Arroyo, Duran and maybe an addition.

 

IP

120 ERod 5.19

119 Richards 4.90

107 M Perez 4.89

50 Ottavino 3.58

37 Andriese 6.03

20 Workman 4.95

14 Brice 6.59

10 Robles 7.84

6 Weber 17.47

 

That's about 500 IP replaced by 2-3 additions and/or more IP from

Sale

Whitlock

Houck

Taylor

DHern

Brasier

Seabold

Davis

Bazardo/Valdez

[Hugh2]

When drafted, many thought he would move right into the Sox pen. Glad to see he's still working to get to the majors.

 

Well, many are not scouts, coaches, front office personnel, and talent evaluators.

 

Some guys get drafted and get projected as relievers which is many might peg a guy as a reliever. But often times teams develop guys who they think might eventually end up in the bullpen as starters. This gives them more reps, and more opportunities to develop their pitches, and possibly prove people wrong.

[Hugh2]

Tremendously top heavy. Lacks depth. Depth gets you good trades and injury replacements. Top heavy leaves you with the ability to bring up potential starters or make a single blockbuster deal then nothing.

 

This absolutely insanely wrong. You seem like a very fair poster, very courageous as a standees fan venturing deep into the red of Boston but your opinion is one from the outside.

 

It makes sense, I get it, we got Marcelo Mayer, and that’s a big piece at the top.

 

But there’s a plethora of talent in the lower minors impressing scouts. Actually, I think depth is the systems biggest strength right now. The system depth is the best I’ve seen since 2010, when more things broke right than wrong then the Sox arguably had the top farm system in all of baseball.

[Hugh2]

I seriously doubt that....name a team and the players they would give up...

 

Maybe I mis understood your question. You were saying Bogaerts current contract had no opt outs what a team would pay for him in a trade?

 

You’re getting multiple top 100 prospects for him.

[Hugh2]

Trading Bogaerts this offseason would be very similar to the Betts trade, except discount the value of the return to about 70-75%.

 

Except he’s under contract for 5 years, he asked what you’d get if there were not options. You’re getting a lot more than what we got for Betts.

[Bellhorn04]

Except he’s under contract for 5 years, he asked what you’d get if there were not options. You’re getting a lot more than what we got for Betts.

 

Sorry, I missed the hypothetical part.

[Hugh2]

Sorry, I missed the hypothetical part.

 

Idk, maybe I misread it wrong, I’m too lazy to go back and look.

[Hugh2]

Ok I lied I did have time, he did ask if he had no opt out.

 

The difference in the return Bogaerts gets you is outstanding. If he hypothetically had zero opt outs and 5/100 remaining on a deal.

[moonslav59]

This absolutely insanely wrong. You seem like a very fair poster, very courageous as a standees fan venturing deep into the red of Boston but your opinion is one from the outside.

 

It makes sense, I get it, we got Marcelo Mayer, and that’s a big piece at the top.

 

But there’s a plethora of talent in the lower minors impressing scouts. Actually, I think depth is the systems biggest strength right now. The system depth is the best I’ve seen since 2010, when more things broke right than wrong then the Sox arguably had the top farm system in all of baseball.

 

Yes, before we got Mayer, most would have viewed the Sox rise in the rankings, yes, we were rising in the ranking before the draft, as being depth- orientated.

 

It's not like Casas and Downs were lighting the world on fire and lifting our ranking on their shoulders. Far from it.

 

Bloom used last year's trade deadline, the Betts & Beni trade, IFA and the rule 5 draft to build some serious depth. The Beni trade, alone netted us 5 players, only one of which was not technically a prospect (Cordero). Now, Whitlock, Houck and Duran have or will graduate soon, so maybe we'll see a slight dip inn the rankings, but that Whitlock move was pure genius. I still count that as building farm depth, even though rule 5 players, by definition, are no longer on the farm.

 

Many of the additions Bloom made have not done all that well this year, and some have fallen in the rankings, but look at this list and tell me it's top heavy. Just because you have a super player at the top, it shouldn't devalue the rest of the farm.

 

Here is the youth Bloom has added, besides Whitlock, Verdugo and Arauz:

 

Downs

Seabold

Yorke

Jordan

Winckowski

Wong

Ro. Hernandez C

Miguel Bleis

Nathan Hickey

Tyler McDonough

Eduard Bazardo

Jeisson Rosario

Hudson Potts

Shane Drohan

Victor Santoz

Freddy Valdez

Grant Gambrell

and several others

[Bellhorn04]

Ok I lied I did have time, he did ask if he had no opt out.

 

The difference in the return Bogaerts gets you is outstanding. If he hypothetically had zero opt outs and 5/100 remaining on a deal.

 

Yeah, the thing is, I assume Xander wouldn't have signed that deal without the opt-out. He got security plus flexibility. So it's all academic.

 

But to play with the hypothetical, I'm not sure how big the return would be, because it would be a large chunk of money assumed by the acquiring team.

 

Maybe there are some reasonable comps?

[Hugh2]

Yes, before we got Mayer, most would have viewed the Sox rise in the rankings, yes, we were rising in the ranking before the draft, as being depth- orientated.

 

It's not like Casas and Downs were lighting the world on fire and lifting our ranking on their shoulders. Far from it.

 

Bloom used last year's trade deadline, the Betts & Beni trade, IFA and the rule 5 draft to build some serious depth. The Beni trade, alone netted us 5 players, only one of which was not technically a prospect (Cordero). Now, Whitlock, Houck and Duran have or will graduate soon, so maybe we'll see a slight dip inn the rankings, but that Whitlock move was pure genius. I still count that as building farm depth, even though rule 5 players, by definition, are no longer on the farm.

 

Many of the additions Bloom made have not done all that well this year, and some have fallen in the rankings, but look at this list and tell me it's top heavy. Just because you have a super player at the top, it shouldn't devalue the rest of the farm.

 

Here is the youth Bloom has added, besides Whitlock, Verdugo and Arauz:

 

Downs

Seabold

Yorke

Jordan

Winckowski

Wong

Ro. Hernandez C

Miguel Bleis

Nathan Hickey

Tyler McDonough

Eduard Bazardo

Jeisson Rosario

Hudson Potts

Shane Drohan

Victor Santoz

Freddy Valdez

Grant Gambrell

and several others

 

It’s true that our stock rising also has to do with teams like NY emptying their farm system. It’s the depth comment that got Me.

 

Prospects in the 20th-40th range is as about as strong as I’ve ever seen it. Yes, most of their guys will bust, but you probably have a regular or two in there, maybe a few role players and a reliever or two and just maybe an all star. They might only be up 1 top 100 prospect because of Mayer, but the depth of the system has taken huge leaps forward and much of it has been organic.

[moonslav59]

It’s true that our stock rising also has to do with teams like NY emptying their farm system. It’s the depth comment that got Me.

 

Prospects in the 20th-40th range is as about as strong as I’ve ever seen it. Yes, most of their guys will bust, but you probably have a regular or two in there, maybe a few role players and a reliever or two and just maybe an all star. They might only be up 1 top 100 prospect because of Mayer, but the depth of the system has taken huge leaps forward and much of it has been organic.

 

Agreed, and I might even venture to say the prospects from 40-60 may also be the best I've seen in a while.

 

I guess, if you had to choose the weakest zone of our farm, it might be from 6 to 15 or 20.

[Larry Cook]

The thing that concerns me the most about our prospects is the lack of quality arms with great stuff!

 

We have 4 to 5 arms with great stuff and that is it.

 

This is an area Hang’em Chaim needs to beef up in the next draft.

[Maxbialystock]

Idk, maybe I misread it wrong, I’m too lazy to go back and look.

 

Never look back. Someone may be gaining on you.

[Maxbialystock]

The thing that concerns me the most about our prospects is the lack of quality arms with great stuff!

 

We have 4 to 5 arms with great stuff and that is it.

 

This is an area Hang’em Chaim needs to beef up in the next draft.

 

Good point. That said, the Sox throughout the John Henry era, the best era in Sox history, have lacked great arms in the minors. I would love if Bloom could fix that. Certainly the Rays are great at developing pitchers and he just left there.

[moonslav59]

It's even more important, if our budget is limited for an extended time.

 

In the past, we just filled our pitching holes through free agency and trading farm hands.

[Nick]

Yeah, the thing is, I assume Xander wouldn't have signed that deal without the opt-out. He got security plus flexibility. So it's all academic.

 

But to play with the hypothetical, I'm not sure how big the return would be, because it would be a large chunk of money assumed by the acquiring team.

 

Maybe there are some reasonable comps?

 

I was implying that the return may not as good as many here think. He's valued by the Sox as a major contributor. Others may see $100M obligation for 5 years as too much risk.

 

They maybe thinking you're not getting anything. We've assumed $100M contract. Problem with big contract is there are only handful of teams that can pay.

[Larry Cook]

Good point. That said, the Sox throughout the John Henry era, the best era in Sox history, have lacked great arms in the minors. I would love if Bloom could fix that. Certainly the Rays are great at developing pitchers and he just left there.

 

Maybe hang’em Chaim needs to hire some of the rays scouts?

 

I heard the rays have most of their baseball analytics people under non competes.

[moonslav59]

I was implying that the return may not as good as many here think. He's valued by the Sox as a major contributor. Others may see $100M obligation for 5 years as too much risk.

 

They maybe thinking you're not getting anything. We've assumed $100M contract. Problem with big contract is there are only handful of teams that can pay.

 

Maybe a couple handfuls.

[moonslav59]

Could that HR by Arauz have been enough to save his slot on next year's 40 man?

 

(I had him being a casualty, and that was before counting FA signings.)

[oldtimer]

Could that HR by Arauz have been enough to save his slot on next year's 40 man?

 

(I had him being a casualty, and that was before counting FA signings.)

 

Let's watch the situation through September and see who we should keep. Arauz is one of those on the edge at this point in my view.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Been watching the O's/Rays game. The 4 best players on the O's have a last name that starts with the letter 'M.' Mullins, Mountcastle, Mancini, and Means.

Two of those 'M's' I'd love to see on the SOX next season. Those two being Mountcastle(1st baseman) and Means(LH Starter).

What does this thread think it would take for Bloom to make this possible? Or is it impossible?

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Been watching the O's/Rays game. The 4 best players on the O's have a last name that starts with the letter 'M.' Mullins, Mountcastle, Mancini, and Means.

Two of those 'M's' I'd love to see on the SOX next season. Those two being Mountcastle(1st baseman) and Means(LH Starter).

What does this thread think it would take for Bloom to make this possible? Or is it impossible?

 

 

I just looked up what the O's are paying these two players. Each is at a little over 1/2 million/year, although Means is up for arbitration next season. I guess I can file that trade under 'the impossible dream.'

The total team salary of the O's this season is around 54 million.

Tampa's team salary is 70 million.

SOX team salary is 182 million.

Yankem team salary is 203 million.

Dodgers team salary is 267 million.

The A's team salary is 89 million.

White Sox=141 million

Astros=192 million.

Giants=160 million.

Edited August 29, 2021 by SPLENDIDSPLINTER

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Could that HR by Arauz have been enough to save his slot on next year's 40 man?

 

(I had him being a casualty, and that was before counting FA signings.)

 

I think he will remain on the 40 man next year, he can play 2B, SS, and 3b. He needs to produce more offensively, but he will get the opportunity to show improvement in AAA next year. Potts, on the other hand, is likely off the 40 man. And Rosario is probably off it too, though maybe they like Rosario, I don't know. He has speed and is an excellent defensive OF. Maybe they find the room for Rosario and hope to see some improvement in his bat.

[Maxbialystock]

Maybe a couple handfuls.

 

My thesaurus says a handful of MLB teams is 8. What does yours say?

[notin]

Been watching the O's/Rays game. The 4 best players on the O's have a last name that starts with the letter 'M.' Mullins, Mountcastle, Mancini, and Means.

Two of those 'M's' I'd love to see on the SOX next season. Those two being Mountcastle(1st baseman) and Means(LH Starter).

What does this thread think it would take for Bloom to make this possible? Or is it impossible?

 

None of those players have priced themselves out of Baltimore yet. Mancini might be the closest, but he’s also something of a Cult Hero in Baltimore and an inspirational cancer survivor, so they’ll hold him as long as possible…

[Larry Cook]

Does Hang’em Chaim keep Potts on the 40 man roster next season? Seems like a waste of a spot.

[moonslav59]

Does Hang’em Chaim keep Potts on the 40 man roster next season? Seems like a waste of a spot.

 

I think Potts and Rossario will be DFA'd.

 

I wonder about Arauz and Munoz- maybe Davis.

 

If we sign 3-5 FAs and protect 4-6 Rule 5 prospects, some of these guys will go.

[moonslav59]

Here's the list of Rule 5 Candidates:

 

Brayan Bello

Cole Brannen

Gary Calvo

Marco Cardoso

Pedro Castellanos

Felix Cepeda

Kole Cottam

Kutter Crawford

Ricardo Cubillan

Osvaldo De La Rosa

Tyler Dearden

Jonathan Diaz

Danny Diaz

Jeter Downs

Tyler Esplin

Durbin Feltman

Ryan Fernandez

Ryan Fitzgerald

Antoni Flores

Frank German

Rio Gomez

Devlin Granberg

Gilberto Jimenez

Jose Larez

Dominic LoBrutto

Bryan Lucas

Charlie Madden

Alan Marrero

Elih Marrero

Joan Martinez

Alexander Montero

Oddanier Mosqueda

Brendan Nail

Brett Netzer

Tanner Nishioka

Kaleb Ort

Yusniel Padron-Artiles

Aaron Perry

Antonio Police

AJ Politi

Ceddanne Rafaela

Oscar Rangel

Tyreque Reed

Jesus Rosillo

Yasel Santana

Victor Santos

Zach Schellinger

John Schreiber

Gregori Segovia

Chase Shugart

Miguel Suero

Jake Thompson

Thaddeus Ward

Grant Williams

Josh Winckowski

[moonslav59]

One area the Sox need to improve is their defense. The problem is, our best hitters seem to be our weakest links on defense.

 

I think one simple step would be to make sure Kike starts in CF, next year and Arroyo at 2B. Verdugo & Renfroe are fine defenders at the corner OF positions, so that leaves SS, 3B, 1B and C.

 

Bogey and Vaz may be gone after 2022, but what about 2021>

 

Dalbec has not improved at all, this year and seems much worse than anyone expected at 1B.

 

Devers has shown long stretches of fine, or at least plus, defense at 3B but seems to have too many stretches of poor D, almost all of which is throwing. I keep expecting him to put it all together, but how soon will that be? To me, Devers is our keeper. We can move him to 1B or keep him at 3B, and he will always be a huge net plus. I'd look to extend him- large and long.

 

Suggesting trading Bogey is just about blasphemy in Sox nation.

Dalbec's low contract cost makes trading him unlikely.

Trading Vaz may not net as much as we think, and it's hard to find good catching, these days, so that seems like a hard thing to pull off.

 

I'm not seeing any easy solutions, and many here want JD and Schwarber back, next year. That's a big drain on the D, as one has to not be the DH.

 

What's the best move to make?

 

None at all?