A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[mvp 78]

It might be more. He might just take the option, and we might also sign him to an extension or redo his deal.

 

I think it's 60/40 he does not opt out.

 

I think it's 80/20 he stays.

[moonslav59]

You have to ask questions from the Sox point of view as well. If they can sign Schwaber with the DH in mind, do they need a second one dimensional hitter? Under those circumstances I would not offer an extension. We would either wind up with two DH's for one year or if Martinez opts our and we have one. Then we could have extra resources to fill in our holes with pitching, 1st base ad catcher. Martinez has really not been hitting well since the AS break.

 

I agree.

 

If it comes down to JD vs Schwarber, I'll choose Schwarber as my DH.

[moonslav59]

I think it's 60/40 he does not opt out.

 

I think it's 80/20 he stays.

 

Sounds spot on.

[Maxbialystock]

I agree.

 

If it comes down to JD vs Schwarber, I'll choose Schwarber as my DH.

 

Me too, but what's wrong with both if Schwarber can handle 1B? I just hate giving JDM $$$$ to play elsewhere.

 

Indeed, the real issue just might be whether JDM has in fact declined enough to justify letting him go.

[Bellhorn04]

I certainly hope JD is back next year, and Schwarber as well.

[Nick]

Watching Twins' shortstop makes me think wow, that glove can help a team. Just not worried about Xander opting out.

 

$20M/year for multiple years is nothing to snooze at.

 

$19.3M is nothing to snooze at for our esteemed JD. Looks to me like he's replaceable with someone like Schwarber for less money.

 

There are talent out there. We need to trust Bloom.

 

There's a notion on this board that we need to pay Xander whatever he wants to keep him. That's why our payroll is bloated.

 

Serious question. What do we get in return for Xander in a trade if he had no opt out?

Edited August 27, 2021 by Nick

[Hugh2]

Watching Twins' shortstop makes me think wow, that glove can help a team. Just not worried about Xander opting out.

 

$20M/year for multiple years is nothing to snooze at.

 

$19.3M is nothing to snooze at for our esteemed JD. Looks to me like he's replaceable with someone like Schwarber for less money.

 

There are talent out there. We need to trust Bloom.

 

There's a notion on this board that we need to pay Xander whatever he wants to keep him. That's why our payroll is bloated.

 

Serious question. What do we get in return for Xander in a trade if he had no opt out?

 

This is a good argument for trading Mookie Betts.

 

I think you’re half wrong here. Paying guys isn’t a problem, paying guys brings in talent and wins championships. The problem is you can’t pay everyone $30 million dollars to man every position. Even the Dodgers don’t have a $400 million dollar payroll. You need young cheap players and that starts with a strong robust farm system. FA fills in the gaps, it’s about balance. Also, it’s about how the guys you pay perform.

 

It’s about knowing who you pay and who you let go. Bogaerts is going to (deservedly) get a raise. He’s a keeper in my book. He’s not going to get whatever he wants, he’s going to get what he’s worth.

[Hugh2]

But to answer your question, you’d get a farm system.

[moonslav59]

Me too, but what's wrong with both if Schwarber can handle 1B? I just hate giving JDM $$$$ to play elsewhere.

 

Indeed, the real issue just might be whether JDM has in fact declined enough to justify letting him go.

 

I’ve already said I’d take both, and it might just be for 1 year, anyway.

 

I’m worried about having enough cash to get better pitching.

[Hugh2]

I’ve already said I’d take both, and it might just be for 1 year, anyway.

 

I’m worried about having enough cash to get better pitching.

 

if JDM took the one year it's probably a blessing. It might not look like that because he's in a bad slump, but he's still a very good hitter and being able to sign him for just one year is ideal. The Sox are staying under the luxury limit to go over next year, so the cash is going to be there and on a one-year deal JDM is NOT going to hamstring them from throwing money at a starting pitcher.

[moonslav59]

if JDM took the one year it's probably a blessing. It might not look like that because he's in a bad slump, but he's still a very good hitter and being able to sign him for just one year is ideal. The Sox are staying under the luxury limit to go over next year, so the cash is going to be there and on a one-year deal JDM is NOT going to hamstring them from throwing money at a starting pitcher.

 

We don’t know the next tax set up and I agree we can keep Schwarber & JD and add a solid SPer, but we need a closer and pitching depth, too.

[mvp 78]

I’ve already said I’d take both, and it might just be for 1 year, anyway.

 

I’m worried about having enough cash to get better pitching.

 

If the Sox are going to go over the cap, there's no reason to worry about the money. They saved enough the past two years anyway.

[Nick]

But to answer your question, you’d get a farm system.

 

I seriously doubt that....name a team and the players they would give up...

[moonslav59]

If the Sox are going to go over the cap, there's no reason to worry about the money. They saved enough the past two years anyway.

 

I am certain we are going over, but that does not mean we will spend like LAD.

 

We need

 

Ace or solid #2

 

Closer

 

1B

 

Set up man- solid

 

Pitching depth

 

Utility

 

I doubt we go over the second or third line, and there is talk the first line might be $180M.

[mvp 78]

But to answer your question, you’d get a farm system.

 

We already have a top 10 farm system.

[mvp 78]

I am certain we are going over, but that does not mean we will spend like LAD.

 

We need

 

Ace or solid #2

 

Closer

 

1B

 

Set up man- solid

 

Pitching depth

 

Utility

 

I doubt we go over the second or third line, and there is talk the first line might be $180M.

 

If you are getting all of that off the open market, it's going to cost $$$. They'll go way over.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I am certain we are going over, but that does not mean we will spend like LAD.

 

 

I'm not. Do you have any quotes from Bloom or ownership that the Red Sox intend to spend more money this winter on signing new or extending current players than they did the last two?

 

The only thing I've heard or read from Bloom -- and I'm paraphrasing -- are lines like, "We're always looking to make good baseball decisions that will make us a better team now and in the future."

 

The reality just may be that the Sox are prudently waiting to see how the new CBA all shakes out before they make market adjustments accordingly.

[jacksonianmarch]

We already have a top 10 farm system.

 

Tremendously top heavy. Lacks depth. Depth gets you good trades and injury replacements. Top heavy leaves you with the ability to bring up potential starters or make a single blockbuster deal then nothing.

[mvp 78]

@SoxProspects

Durbin Feltman pitched a scoreless inning of relief in Worcester's 8-5 win last night. Currently 40th on the #SP60, Feltman has an ERA of 2.84 over 12.1 IP, and has held batters to a .191 OBA since joining the @WooSox.

 

Feltman is still making his case for being in BOS next season.

[Bellhorn04]

I seriously doubt that....name a team and the players they would give up...

 

Trading Bogaerts this offseason would be very similar to the Betts trade, except discount the value of the return to about 70-75%.

[Nick]

@SoxProspects

Durbin Feltman pitched a scoreless inning of relief in Worcester's 8-5 win last night. Currently 40th on the #SP60, Feltman has an ERA of 2.84 over 12.1 IP, and has held batters to a .191 OBA since joining the @WooSox.

 

Feltman is still making his case for being in BOS next season.

 

When drafted, many thought he would move right into the Sox pen. Glad to see he's still working to get to the majors.

[Nick]

Trading Bogaerts this offseason would be very similar to the Betts trade, except discount the value of the return to about 70-75%.

 

I was approaching the topic from what is Bloom's thinking when it comes to contracts with opt outs. Is Devers more of a priority than giving a raise to Xander? In theory, if his market value is MUCH HIGHER than $20M, then shouldn't we receive handful of top prospects for him? Is that a better alternative and focus more on Devers' extension? JD's money will eventually come off the books but his bat will need to be replaced, hopefully with Schwarber.

 

If Bloom's approach is never to go all in, then I doubt we'll see player raises for guys already signed. Maybe grant an extension but not rework the contract.

Edited August 27, 2021 by Nick

[Bellhorn04]

I was approaching the topic from what is Bloom's thinking when it comes to contracts with opt outs. Is Devers more of a priority than giving a raise to Xander? In theory, if his market value is MUCH HIGHER than $20M, then shouldn't we receive handful of top prospects?

 

Trading Bogey would be virtually identical to trading Betts. The acquiring team is only guaranteed one year of service.

[Nick]

Tremendously top heavy. Lacks depth. Depth gets you good trades and injury replacements. Top heavy leaves you with the ability to bring up potential starters or make a single blockbuster deal then nothing.

 

I'm okay with that. One of the three, Duran has already made an appearance with the parent club so we're down to Mayer and Casas. Casas maybe the heir apparent for JD. (not position wise, but bat wise). If Xander remains with the Sox, then Mayer should be his replacement.

 

Let's just hope #1 ranked draft prospect by many will not be a bust.

[moonslav59]

If you are getting all of that off the open market, it's going to cost $$$. They'll go way over.

 

We probably will not get all of that, but with arb raises, Price's cost and the cost of JD, Schwarber and a solid SP'er, how much is left for a closer and other needs?

 

We may trade for one major piece and save some FA money, but weaken the farm at the same time.

[moonslav59]

I'm not. Do you have any quotes from Bloom or ownership that the Red Sox intend to spend more money this winter on signing new or extending current players than they did the last two?

 

The only thing I've heard or read from Bloom -- and I'm paraphrasing -- are lines like, "We're always looking to make good baseball decisions that will make us a better team now and in the future."

 

The reality just may be that the Sox are prudently waiting to see how the new CBA all shakes out before they make market adjustments accordingly.

 

No quotes, but some hints.

 

1) Their track record shows the spend in cycles, usually after being prudent for 1-3 years.

2) They spoke of the tax line not being a rigid priority, this year, and this was a rebuild year, so with higher hopes, next year, I think they'll mean it this time.

3) If we don't win it all or get close, soon, the fans and media will get even more brutal thatn they have been, this year- a year where we have far exceeded expectation. Fans want to expect much better, next year.

 

The new CBA may change my opinion, but I think Henry will spend much more next year. BTW, we did spend about $40M, last winter, but almost all on 1 year deals. (Kike on 2)

 

[Bellhorn04]

Everything is probably on hold until the new CBA is in place.

[mvp 78]

We probably will not get all of that, but with arb raises, Price's cost and the cost of JD, Schwarber and a solid SP'er, how much is left for a closer and other needs?

 

We may trade for one major piece and save some FA money, but weaken the farm at the same time.

 

I trust the Bloom can adequately evaluate our farm and not trade anything away that will come back to bite us.

[moonslav59]

I trust the Bloom can adequately evaluate our farm and not trade anything away that will come back to bite us.

 

I do, too, and I've never been against trading some major farm pieces for the right players and at the right time.

 

I could see us fill one of our major needs via trade: Solid SP'er, closer (may not be a pitcher who is a closer, now) or a 1Bman (assuming no Schwarber keep).

[notin]

Trading Bogey would be virtually identical to trading Betts. The acquiring team is only guaranteed one year of service.

 

True but that one year might be a relative bargain compared to the free agent alternatives in Correa, Seager and Story…