A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[mvp 78]

I'm sure many teams are happy with either one.

 

(PLus, I asked if you want him to take it- not Bloom & Co.)

 

I would offer him the QO and hope he takes it.

[notin]

$19m?

 

It was $18.9 mill last year

[moonslav59]

I would offer him the QO and hope he takes it.

 

I'd offer him one, as of now, and not care one way or the other.

 

Comp pick + $19M to spend = ERod at $19M/1.

[oldtimer]

My general comments on pitching 2022 and beyond.

 

Setting up the pitching staff for 2022 and onward is a very complicated business. On first principles, the Sox could have either 13 or 14 pitchers on the roster coming out of ST. I would prefer 13, however Cora chose 14 in 2021. Currently they have a total of 22, if you include the 40 man roster as a repository of talent available to the majors. I count 8 more not on the active roster that have some lesser chance of appearing in a big league game in 2022. Perhaps that will signal an improvement in the development of pitching talent by the Sox minor league coaching.

 

If we do go with 13 pitchers on the active roster, what should the makeup consist of in general. I would expect 5 starters capable of going at least 5 innings and better if they can go at least 6 on average. Coupled with that I would expect that there would be 2 longer relievers who could fill in as starters if a BP game was needed. The remainder of 6 would include 6 spot relievers with 3 of those being of the higher leverage types including closing capability.

 

The old story of righty and lefty mix comes into play here, with 3 right handed and 2 left handed starters and 3 left handed relievers and 5 right handed relievers allowing for optimum flexibility and variations on that based on available talent.

 

The question of velocity comes into the game now as many pitchers are hitting 95 and above. I agree that velocity is important but not if command is sacrificed in a way that makes for a lot of walks. Pitchers are asked for full extension of their delivery on their fastballs which seems to make them prone to physical injuries. Also, clearly starters need a variety of quality pitches if they are to go multiple times through the lineup. Long relievers need at least 3 quality pitches while spot relievers can get by with 2. Command is extremely important.

 

Most common of the pitches thrown is the four seamer, followed by the 2 seamer (sinker) and cut fastball. Nice to have a slider, a changeup or a splitter. The curve balls of various types, including the knuckle curve although effective seem harder to control.

 

If you keep 9 pitchers besides the active roster on the 40 man, some of those will be protected and may be recovering from issues but too valuable to let walk. There may be only 5 or 6 that can be transitioned to the majors as needed when injury strikes. Having a starter and long reliever stashed in that way along with maybe 4 spot relievers makes sense to me. Looking at the Sox roster for 2022 and beyond for specific names dives into the deep water of choices. I will share my choices separately as this is already a long entry.

[oldtimer]

Comments on the actual staff

 

Starters:

1. Chris Sale is being paid $30 mil in 2022 and 27.5 Mil in 2023 and 2024. That is ace money. He will turn 33 before the start of the 2022 season. While still very good I doubt if he will be able to provide ace quality starts that the money indicates. It will be interesting to follow his efforts for the remainder of 2021.

 

2. Nathan Eovaldi is currently our best pitcher with great velocity, an array of pitches and a physicality that is hearty enough to see him last in games into the later innings. We have him for 2022 at $ 17 mil. He turns 32 at the beginning of the season and if he has another good year could get a a multi-year contract at near ace money. At that age, should we compete?

 

3. Nick Pivetta was a steal for us. At the start of 2022 he will be in his prime at 29 years old. He has shown qualities of a mid-level starter but has been inconsistent at times. The way I understand it he will be in arbitration next season. I would try to sign him to a 3 year contract.

 

4. Eduardo Rodriquez is a second left hander behind Sale. He has mid-level starter stuff but seems to suffer from a lack of focus at times. He has been a nibbler in the past running up his pitch count due to this so has trouble lasting past 5. He is only going to be 29 early in the 2022 season but resigning him is complicated by his FA.

 

5. Tanner Houck is definitely a starter/long reliever candidate for 2022 and on. I understand he is working on at least one more prime pitch to go along with the 4 seamer and slider. He needs to learn to throw more strikes and not to tire himself out early and the additional pitch might help him get to three times around the order. At 26 years old and at the arb stage in 2022 we should consider a longer term deal.

 

6.Whitlock is another starter/long reliever candidate. What a steal from the Yankees. Another 26 year old who could definitely become a starter. He has great stuff now and should be considered for a long-term contract.

 

Long Reliever:

 

1. Garrett Richards seems to have found his best spot as a long reliever. He will be 34 in the 2022 season and will be owed $1.5 mil although as a FA, we might not be able to sign him. My offer would be two years and maybe $3.5 mil a year which might not do the trick.

 

2. Conner Seabold is also a possibility as a starter/long reliever. We haven’t yet seen him at the ML level so it is hard to know what he is capable of. At 26 years old and still available to us we need to get a close look. If it works out he can get a start or two in the majors in 2021 we can get a look, otherwise it may come down to spring training.

 

So looking at starters and long relievers for 2022, there is real uncertainty about signing E-Rod, which would leave us with one lefty starter. It appears we can get at least one starter from Houck, Whitlock and Seabold. I would look at the FA market for a competitive left hand starter and compare his virtues with E-Rod before committing. Two quality arms out of the three young pitchers could fill any needs in long relief and emergency starts. I wouldn’t rule Richards out if he can be gotten for no more than a 2 year contract at the type of money I mentioned.

 

Spot Relievers:

 

1. Matt Barnes will be 32 going into the 2022 season and is signed for $7.4 mil a year to close. He did a good job closing for us with his 4 seamer and knuckle curve. He appears to have exhibited a case of tired arm and lost confidence of late but may bounce back with rest. Hard to know if the extension was smart.

 

2. H Sawamura was a great pickup for us this year. He will be 34 in 2022 but still has good velocity and a wicked splitter. I don’t know his contractual status but think he is a quality spot reliever. He may be showing signs of fatigue in August.

 

3. Josh Taylor started off poorly for us in 2021 but found his form and pitched extremely well for us from then on. Everyone has hiccups, but his have been minor. He is a much-needed left hander in the BP and at 29 he should be resigned. Don’t know his contract status

 

4. Darwizon Hernandez is an effective hard throwing guy who suffered a relatively minor injury and should return this year. He is 26 year old in 2022 so could continue to be mainstay of the BP going forward. He is in arb next year. His issue is command issue which might limit his use in high leverage situations although young guys can improve. He represents a second left handed reliever.

 

5. Adam Ottavino has been used in high leverage situations this season for us with mixed results. At 36 years old next season he should be looked on as on the decline. He still has reasonable velocity and his slider can be a wicked pitch, but he can get into trouble losing command. I think we may owe him $2 mil for 2022 but would be reluctant to bring him back.

 

6. Martin Perez will be a 31 year old FA and some team may offer him a contract for 5th starter money. We would probably only have any use for him as a reliever for less money so I assume we let him walk.

 

7. I not in love with either Hansel Robles nor Yacksel Rios. Both throw hard but suffer from serious command issues. If we could keep Rios in the minors he might be of some value to us during the season. Robles is a FA and I would let him walk.

 

8. Ryan Brasier will be 35 in 2022 and it appears he will be in arb. If he can make it back, he might prove to be a solid but not high leverage reliever who can throw strikes.

 

9. Austin Davis has not impressed in his period with the Sox. I would try to off load him.

 

10. Phillips Valdez can be effective but has great trouble finding the command to be a consistent relief pitcher I would stockpile him in the minors but don’t have a lot of hope for him.

 

We have Bello, Murphy, Walters, Winckowski, Ward, Schreiber and Groome in development. It shouldn’t be too much of a stretch to expect at least one of them to reach the ML team in 2022. I would be looking to the FA market for another high leverage reliever since we still have question marks which will likely carry over into 2022. How much can we afford in the market?

[moonslav59]

nice job, old timer.

 

Here are some names Of pitchers already in the system that may fill most slots.

 

Free Agents:

ERod QO offer?

Ottavino

Robles

 

Team Options:

Richards

Perez

 

Sale

Eovaldi

Pivetta

Whitlock

Houck

 

Barnes

Taylor

DHern

Sawamura

Brasier

Valdez

Rios

Davis

 

Seabold

Bello- rule 5

Winckowski- rule 5

Crawford-rule 5

German- rule 5

 

Bazardo

Feltman-rule 5

 

I might be missing someone, but these are the main choices.

 

My guess is we add 2 starters and a closer this winter from outside the organization.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

My guess is we add 2 starters and a closer this winter from outside the organization.

 

 

I wouldn't be surprised if there's a big trade for a good starter under control, and a subsequent signing of a quality free agent infielder. But I also can't see both Whitlock and Houck in the rotation; having a lockdown two-inning reliever -- even if he only throws every four or five days -- is just too valuable for modern, overused and thus unreliable bullpens.

[moonslav59]

I wouldn't be surprised if there's a big trade for a good starter under control, and a subsequent signing of a quality free agent infielder. But I also can't see both Whitlock and Houck in the rotation; having a lockdown two-inning reliever -- even if he only throws every four or five days -- is just too valuable for modern, overused and thus unreliable bullpens.

 

I'd like to see Houck as the set-up man or long man and Whitlock as our starter. That leaves one slot for a starter via free agency or trade plus maybe some depth.

[mvp 78]

We have Bello, Murphy, Walters, Winckowski, Ward, Schreiber and Groome in development. It shouldn’t be too much of a stretch to expect at least one of them to reach the ML team in 2022. I would be looking to the FA market for another high leverage reliever since we still have question marks which will likely carry over into 2022. How much can we afford in the market?

 

Don't discount Kutter Crawford. He's pitched very well this year and will be put on the 40 man this offseason. Not sure if they try to keep him as a long man or stick him in a short relief role. Not sure he'd be better than a 5th starter, but he couldn't be worse than Perez. Murphy gives up too many hr's and is probably destined for the pen if he can't fix it. Bello is far away. Winckowski and Seabold could provide something next year. Ward is out with TJS. Groome is still far away, but at least he's been healthy this year (if he pitches well in AA next year, maybe we see him as part of the rotation in 23).

 

There's definitely some more interesting guys than we've had recently.

 

You didn't mention Feltman, someone who has gotten a lot of press previously and now is under the radar. After giving up 3 ER in his first AAA appearance, he's gone 9.3 innings in his last 7 appearances and has only given up 1 ER, 4H, 10K, 2BB. He'll probably have a legitimate shot to be on the Opening Day roster next season.

[moonslav59]

Don't discount Kutter Crawford. He's pitched very well this year and will be put on the 40 man this offseason. Not sure if they try to keep him as a long man or stick him in a short relief role. Not sure he'd be better than a 5th starter, but he couldn't be worse than Perez. Murphy gives up too many hr's and is probably destined for the pen if he can't fix it. Bello is far away. Winckowski and Seabold could provide something next year. Ward is out with TJS. Groome is still far away, but at least he's been healthy this year (if he pitches well in AA next year, maybe we see him as part of the rotation in 23).

 

There's definitely some more interesting guys than we've had recently.

 

You didn't mention Feltman, someone who has gotten a lot of press previously and now is under the radar. After giving up 3 ER in his first AAA appearance, he's gone 9.3 innings in his last 7 appearances and has only given up 1 ER, 4H, 10K, 2BB. He'll probably have a legitimate shot to be on the Opening Day roster next season.

 

I'm not sure we even protect Feltman. There are only so many open roster spots, and some will be filled by free agents.

 

I agree on Crawford & Winckowski making the 40.

 

Bello makes it, for sure, but yes, he will not be called up in 2022.

 

I'm not sure about Ward or Schrieber being protected. Murphy is not Rule 5 until 2023.

[notin]

I wouldn't be surprised if there's a big trade for a good starter under control, and a subsequent signing of a quality free agent infielder. But I also can't see both Whitlock and Houck in the rotation; having a lockdown two-inning reliever -- even if he only throws every four or five days -- is just too valuable for modern, overused and thus unreliable bullpens.

 

If the Sox make moves for starting pitching, leaving Houck as no Whitlock in the bullpen makes even more sense. Whitlock already is the 2 inning lockdown reliever. Houck is probably the best replacement for Barnes we’ll find.

 

Sale, Pivetta, Eovaldi and Seabold make for an acceptable start to the rotation. Throwing Whitlock into the mix in the rotation is just as questionable as Seabold, and also creates the very opening in the bullpen you say they need. Plus a bullpen with Houck, Barnes, Taylor, Whitlock, and Darwinzon is a really good start. Feltman and Valdez might be in the mix as well.

 

And if Robles works out, he might be back…

[notin]

I'd like to see Houck as the set-up man or long man and Whitlock as our starter. That leaves one slot for a starter via free agency or trade plus maybe some depth.

 

Whitlock to the pen. Seabold to the rotation…

[moonslav59]

If the Sox make moves for starting pitching, leaving Houck as no Whitlock in the bullpen makes even more sense. Whitlock already is the 2 inning lockdown reliever. Houck is probably the best replacement for Barnes we’ll find.

 

Sale, Pivetta, Eovaldi and Seabold make for an acceptable start to the rotation. Throwing Whitlock into the mix in the rotation is just as questionable as Seabold, and also creates the very opening in the bullpen you say they need. Plus a bullpen with Houck, Barnes, Taylor, Whitlock, and Darwinzon is a really good start. Feltman and Valdez might be in the mix as well.

 

And if Robles works out, he might be back…

 

The way the pen looks, now, keeping Whitlock there, next year makes sense.

 

I also think Houck's current profile projects better in the pen, maybe even as our closer.

 

That's why I'd like to see us sign 2 SP'er: one a solid #2 and the other one for depth, in case someone gets hurt or Seabold disappoints.

 

Even with Whitlock and Houck in next year's pen, we may still want to add another decent pen arm to make it 3 pitching additions to go along with a 1Bman.

 

[mvp 78]

Whitlock to the pen. Seabold to the rotation…

 

A pen with Houck and Whitlock would be pretty good.

[a700hitter]

The way the pen looks, now, keeping Whitlock there, next year makes sense.

 

I also think Houck's current profile projects better in the pen, maybe even as our closer.

 

That's why I'd like to see us sign 2 SP'er: one a solid #2 and the other one for depth, in case someone gets hurt or Seabold disappoints.

 

Even with Whitlock and Houck in next year's pen, we may still want to add another decent pen arm to make it 3 pitching additions to go along with a 1Bman.

 

Wasn’t Sale a closer initially?

[moonslav59]

Wasn’t Sale a closer initially?

 

Yup, and...?

[mvp 78]

Closers in FA:

Jansen NOT LEAVING LA

Rosenthal TORN LABRUM PLUS THORACIC OUTLET SURGERY

Hand NO

Iglesias OK

Kennedy NOT GOOD SINCE TRADE

[notin]

Wasn’t Sale a closer initially?

 

No.

 

His first two seasons, he did make 79 relief appearances but only got 12 saves, and I bet the bulk of them were the stupid “last three inning” ones.

 

The White Sox did make him the closer briefly when he had elbow issues in 2012. He tried to close one game and blew the save. And then I guess his elbow issues miraculously disappeared because he went right back into the rotation…

[moonslav59]

Closers in FA:

Jansen NOT LEAVING LA

Rosenthal TORN LABRUM PLUS THORACIC OUTLET SURGERY

Hand NO

Iglesias OK

Kennedy NOT GOOD SINCE TRADE

 

If we can't get Iglesias, then we have to look at a trade or using Houck or Whitlock as our 2022 closer.

 

IMO.

[notin]

If we can't get Iglesias, then we have to look at a trade or using Houck or Whitlock as our 2022 closer.

 

IMO.

 

Houck.

 

Or Barnes, since the team may not have completely given up on him and a bad stretch does not mean he forgot how to pitch completely…

[mvp 78]

Houck.

 

Or Barnes, since the team may not have completely given up on him and a bad stretch does not mean he forgot how to pitch completely…

 

Just keep Barnes as the 8th inning guy. He's been fine there in the past. Just put Houck as closer for next year.

[notin]

Just keep Barnes as the 8th inning guy. He's been fine there in the past. Just put Houck as closer for next year.

 

Another arrangement I would be on board with…

[moonslav59]

I'd be fine with...

 

Houck

Barnes

FA set up man

 

R Iglesias

Houck

Barnes

[a700hitter]

Yup, and...?

Houck has been likened to Sale by some people and Sale was able to pitch successfully out of the pen as a closer, so I see no harm putting Houck there temporarily.

[a700hitter]

No.

 

His first two seasons, he did make 79 relief appearances but only got 12 saves, and I bet the bulk of them were the stupid “last three inning” ones.

 

The White Sox did make him the closer briefly when he had elbow issues in 2012. He tried to close one game and blew the save. And then I guess his elbow issues miraculously disappeared because he went right back into the rotation…

You start off with “no” and proceed to contradict yourself.

 

Most of his saves were 1 inning or less and only 1 was 2 innings or more.

Edited August 25, 2021 by a700hitter

[notin]

I'd be fine with...

 

Houck

Barnes

FA set up man

 

R Iglesias

Houck

Barnes

 

For 2022

 

Houck, Barnes, Whitlock, Taylor, Hernandez, Valdez, Sawamura and maybe either Feltman or Ort. Austin Davis is still in the mix, too.

 

Rotation: Sale, Eovaldi, Pivetta, Seabold, Acquisition…

[notin]

younstart of with “no” and proceed to contradict yourself.

 

Most of his saves were 1 inning or less and only 1 was 2 innings or more.

 

I didn’t like them up, but ok.

 

But 12 saves in 2 years isn’t really a closer. Bobby Jenks and Sergio Santos were the closers on those White Sox teams. Sale’s career high in saves in a season is 8, the same number non-closing Adam Ottavino has for the Sox right now.

 

Most likely his saves came in games when Jenks or Santiago weren’t available…

[moonslav59]

For 2022

 

Houck, Barnes, Whitlock, Taylor, Hernandez, Valdez, Sawamura and maybe either Feltman or Ort. Austin Davis is still in the mix, too.

 

Rotation: Sale, Eovaldi, Pivetta, Seabold, Acquisition…

 

Rios, Brasier and Bazardo are in the pen mix, too.

 

To me, the best way to improve this staff going into next year is to add a solid #2 SP'er. (I'd like and ace, but that's too big of an ask.) That's even if we offer ERod the QO and he takes it.

 

Sale, FA, Eovaldi, ERod, Pivetta (AAA: Seabold)

Iglesias, Houck, Barnes, Whitlock, DHern, Taylor, Sawamura and Valdez/Rios/Davis/Brasier/???

[oldtimer]

Don't discount Kutter Crawford. He's pitched very well this year and will be put on the 40 man this offseason. Not sure if they try to keep him as a long man or stick him in a short relief role. Not sure he'd be better than a 5th starter, but he couldn't be worse than Perez. Murphy gives up too many hr's and is probably destined for the pen if he can't fix it. Bello is far away. Winckowski and Seabold could provide something next year. Ward is out with TJS. Groome is still far away, but at least he's been healthy this year (if he pitches well in AA next year, maybe we see him as part of the rotation in 23).

 

There's definitely some more interesting guys than we've had recently.

 

You didn't mention Feltman, someone who has gotten a lot of press previously and now is under the radar. After giving up 3 ER in his first AAA appearance, he's gone 9.3 innings in his last 7 appearances and has only given up 1 ER, 4H, 10K, 2BB. He'll probably have a legitimate shot to be on the Opening Day roster next season.

 

I'm definitely not up on all of minor league prospects. Let's hope that our program can develop one or two of them into useful contributors in 2022. We need some help.

[mvp 78]

I'm definitely not up on all of minor league prospects. Let's hope that our program can develop one or two of them into useful contributors in 2022. We need some help.

 

I think Seabold, Bazardo and Feltman are the closest to contributing. The better influx of talent could be in 2023 and 2024.