A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

He’s in New York City. When the Yankees are bad, folks there get more violent…

 

So it does make sense.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

If ERod gets and takes a QO, that eats up almost half that amount.

 

 

What's a QO for a #4 starter?

[mvp 78]

What's a QO for a #4 starter?

 

Same as it is for a #1 starter.

[Bellhorn04]

What's a QO for a #4 starter?

 

Rare.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Same as it is for a #1 starter.

 

True, but maybe the SOX FO considers him better than a #4, which would be a huge mistake. I wouldn't waste much time with E-rod. The FO makes him an offer; if E-rod doesn't like it, don't let the door hit you in the ass.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Also, I'm kind of surprised that a few here still believe that JD is going to opt out. I hope he does, but I seriously doubt it.

[Bellhorn04]

Also, I'm kind of surprised that a few here still believe that JD is going to opt out. I hope he does, but I seriously doubt it.

 

I don't think anyone believes it right now. His slump is pushing his numbers down into the 'no way does he opt out' zone.

[mvp 78]

True, but maybe the SOX FO considers him better than a #4, which would be a huge mistake. I wouldn't waste much time with E-rod. The FO makes him an offer; if E-rod doesn't like it, don't let the door hit you in the ass.

 

They will look it as, "is it worth the risk that he takes $19M for one year in order to get a comp pick if he decides to leave?"

[mvp 78]

I don't think anyone believes it right now. His slump is pushing his numbers down into the 'no way does he opt out' zone.

 

Hard to say. If I had to guess now, I say he doesn't opt out.

[mvp 78]

Rare.

 

Is ERod really the 4th starter though? He wasn't the 4th starter in 2019.

[Bellhorn04]

They will look it as, "is it worth the risk that he takes $19M for one year in order to get a comp pick if he decides to leave?"

 

$19 mill is a lot of money for a comp pick.

[Bellhorn04]

Is ERod really the 4th starter though? He wasn't the 4th starter in 2019.

 

I didn't tackle that part LOL

[mvp 78]

$19 mill is a lot of money for a comp pick.

 

Gausman got a QO last year. Is ERod as good as Gausman? It's close, right?

[Bellhorn04]

Gausman got a QO last year. Is ERod as good as Gausman? It's close, right?

 

Yeah, it's close. The only difference is that Gausman was coming off a very nice mini-season with the Giants.

 

Some people say there's no such thing as a bad one-year contract, too. But the Red Sox may balk at the 19 mill with respect to the luxury tax situation.

[moonslav59]

They will look it as, "is it worth the risk that he takes $19M for one year in order to get a comp pick if he decides to leave?"

 

That's how I think they'll view it, and depending on how he finishes the season, and with the thought that it's "only" a 1 year deal, I think they offer it.

 

They may secretly wish he says no, because they'd rather have the sandwich pick, but they'd still rather have ERod for 1 year than not.

[moonslav59]

Yeah, it's close. The only difference is that Gausman was coming off a very nice mini-season with the Giants.

 

Some people say there's no such thing as a bad one-year contract, too. But the Red Sox may balk at the 19 mill with respect to the luxury tax situation.

 

True, but they should look at what happened with the $10M deal (Richards) and the $6M deal (Perez), this year.

 

That's what you get for the money on one year deals.

 

Sure, you can get lucky, but it's not common.

[mvp 78]

Yeah, it's close. The only difference is that Gausman was coming off a very nice mini-season with the Giants.

 

Some people say there's no such thing as a bad one-year contract, too. But the Red Sox may balk at the 19 mill with respect to the luxury tax situation.

 

Aren't they planning on going over next year?

 

Or is the CLIFF really a valley because ownership is trying to push off the next hill?

[mvp 78]

True, but they should look at what happened with the $10M deal (Richards) and the $6M deal (Perez), this year.

 

That's what you get for the money on one year deals.

 

Sure, you can get lucky, but it's not common.

 

I'd rather have ERod at 19 than Perez and Richards at 16.

[mvp 78]

That's how I think they'll view it, and depending on how he finishes the season, and with the thought that it's "only" a 1 year deal, I think they offer it.

 

They may secretly wish he says no, because they'd rather have the sandwich pick, but they'd still rather have ERod for 1 year than not.

 

Better to have him underperform for one year and come off the books than to sign him long term and for him to be a drag on the rotation.

[moonslav59]

I'd rather have ERod at 19 than Perez and Richards at 16.

 

No doubt. I could probably find someone else who got that and you'd think otherwise.

 

At the time, I remember people thinking Kluber was the better guy at that price. Oooops!

[notin]

Hard to say. If I had to guess now, I say he doesn't opt out.

 

 

The new CBA is a factor for JD, I suspect.

 

If his agent thinks the new CBA will include a DH in the NL, he’d be stupid not to opt out, as 15 more teams suddenly need his services. But that’s unlikely to be resolved by the time he has to make a decision.

 

So if he has to guess, the safer choice is to just exercise his option for 2022. Especially given his recent slump. Now if he goes on a tear the way of the way, obviously things can change…

[mvp 78]

The new CBA is a factor for JD, I suspect.

 

If his agent thinks the new CBA will include a DH in the NL, he’d be stupid not to opt out, as 15 more teams suddenly need his services. But that’s unlikely to be resolved by the time he has to make a decision.

 

So if he has to guess, the safer choice is to just exercise his option for 2022. Especially given his recent slump. Now if he goes on a tear the way of the way, obviously things can change…

 

Safer choice is to take the money. If he can stay healthy and have a normal season, I don't think his next contract would be materially affected.

[moonslav59]

Safer choice is to take the money. If he can stay healthy and have a normal season, I don't think his next contract would be materially affected.

 

It's not a clear "safer choice."

 

If he can get a 3-4 year deal this winter, that could be safer than not opting out and seeing himself get hurt or have a full season like 2020. Then, he may end up making less- overall.

 

I don't think that is likely, but it is possible.

 

One can view having a $60M/4 deal signed this winter is better than $19.4M/1.

 

He may also get the Sox to restructure his deal, which would bring down his AVV. but he still ends up getting $60M/4 by the end of 4 years, with more front end loaded, which helps him, while the lower AVV helps us.

[notin]

Safer choice is to take the money. If he can stay healthy and have a normal season, I don't think his next contract would be materially affected.

 

If he accepts the option and the NL does adopt the DH for 2022, he will have missed his best chance. He won’t be struggling to put food on the table if he misses out, but there will be less interested teams and he will be a year older.

 

Now if he accepts the option and the NL adopts the DH in 2023, he should be fine. But I can’t compare the hypothetical contracts…

[mvp 78]

It's not a clear "safer choice."

 

If he can get a 3-4 year deal this winter, that could be safer than not opting out and seeing himself get hurt or have a full season like 2020. Then, he may end up making less- overall.

 

I don't think that is likely, but it is possible.

 

One can view having a $60M/4 deal signed this winter is better than $19.4M/1.

 

He may also get the Sox to restructure his deal, which would bring down his AVV. but he still ends up getting $60M/4 by the end of 4 years, with more front end loaded, which helps him, while the lower AVV helps us.

 

It's probably 60/40 he stays.

[oldtimer]

It's not a clear "safer choice."

 

If he can get a 3-4 year deal this winter, that could be safer than not opting out and seeing himself get hurt or have a full season like 2020. Then, he may end up making less- overall.

 

I don't think that is likely, but it is possible.

 

One can view having a $60M/4 deal signed this winter is better than $19.4M/1.

 

He may also get the Sox to restructure his deal, which would bring down his AVV. but he still ends up getting $60M/4 by the end of 4 years, with more front end loaded, which helps him, while the lower AVV helps us.

 

You have to ask questions from the Sox point of view as well. If they can sign Schwaber with the DH in mind, do they need a second one dimensional hitter? Under those circumstances I would not offer an extension. We would either wind up with two DH's for one year or if Martinez opts our and we have one. Then we could have extra resources to fill in our holes with pitching, 1st base ad catcher. Martinez has really not been hitting well since the AS break.

[notin]

It's probably 60/40 he stays.

 

Another factor is if he opts out, he definitely gets a qualifying offer.

 

If he is rejecting a one year $19.4 mill option, why not make him another one year $19 mill offer to also reject?

 

In fact, it might make sense for him to decline the option and accept the QO. That way he enters the market for 2023 as ineligible to receive one…

[mvp 78]

Another factor is if he opts out, he definitely gets a qualifying offer.

 

If he is rejecting a one year $19.4 mill option, why not make him another one year $19 mill offer to also reject?

 

In fact, it might make sense for him to decline the option and accept the QO. That way he enters the market for 2023 as ineligible to receive one…

 

Yes, I agree.

[moonslav59]

It's probably 60/40 he stays.

 

It might be more. He might just take the option, and we might also sign him to an extension or redo his deal.

[moonslav59]

If he accepts the option and the NL does adopt the DH for 2022, he will have missed his best chance. He won’t be struggling to put food on the table if he misses out, but there will be less interested teams and he will be a year older.

 

Now if he accepts the option and the NL adopts the DH in 2023, he should be fine. But I can’t compare the hypothetical contracts…

 

I think some NL teams already have a player on their roster suited for DH, or want to rotate the position, but yes, several teams will look to spend on a new DH.