A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[mvp 78]

If ERod gets and takes a QO, that eats up almost half that amount.

 

Yup. That's why the Sox will probably go well over the lux tax cap next year. Though we don't know what the CBA will look like.

[mvp 78]

I think a sandwich pick.

 

Delicious

[mvp 78]

Would Schwarber go for something like 6 year $90M?

 

You could probably get him at 15 AAV for a shorter term. Maybe 4/60?

[Nick]

I have a rough estimate of about $170M before we add anyone...

 

The budget outlook is a little murky, due to JD's opt out and a few options that might be viewed as borderline (not by me). Here is a look at the lux tax numbers for 2022 (by cots):

 

Locked Up: $100.5M

25.6 Sale

20.0 Bogey

17.0 Eovaldi

16.0 Price

9.38 Barnes

7.00 Kike

1.50 Sawamura

 

Arbs (2021 salary) $24.5

10.5 Devers 2 of 3 (4.6) YES

5.00 Renfroe 3 of 4 (3.1)

2.50 Plawecki 4 of 4 (1.6)

1.50 Brasier 2 of 3 (1.3)

0.90 Cordero 2 of 3 (800K)

2.50 Verdugo 1 of 3 (650K)

2.50 Pivetta 1 of 3 (614K)

1.10 Arroyo 1 of 3 (582K)

1.00 Taylor 1 of 4 (581K)

 

Pre-Arb Keepers (on 40 man):

D Hernandez

P Valdez

Houck

Dalbec

Whitlock

Duran

Groome

B Mata

Y Rios

C Seabold

C Wong

 

Pre-Arb Bubblers (on 40 man):

A Davis

Arauz

Bazardo

Ro Hernandez

H Potts

J Rosario

 

Player Opt Out or Mutual Option: ($19.5M)

22.0 JD (19.4 projected no opt out)

10.0 Schwarber (11.5 m/o w 3 b/o) projected no option

 

Team Options (my projection) 2021lux tax): ($7M)

10.0 w 1.5 b/o Richards (NO) 10.0

6.0 w 500K b/o Perez (NO) 5.0

7.0 w 250K b/o Vaz (YES) 4.5

3.5 w 250K b/o Andriese (NO) 2.1

 

Free Agents (2021 $$$ lux tax):

13.8 Pedey (Retired)

8.9 Ottavino

8.3 ERod (QO????)

3.0 Marwin (DFA'd)

2.8 Beni (paid to KCR-2021)

2.0 Robles

??? Santana

(NYY paid us $1.8M for Ottavino in 2021)

 

TOTAL BUDGET:

151.5M

+ 2.5M other 40man roster players

+15.5M Player Benefits

 

$170M

 

4-5 FA Pick-ups:

SP2 (1-3 years)

RP2 (1-3 years)

1B (1-2 years)

Utility (1-2 years)

Pitcher (1-2 years)

 

I think we can go over with the thought in 2023 JD will be gone and the Price money will be gone, that's another $33M in savings.

[moonslav59]

I’m pretty certain we go over and maybe right up to the second line.

 

The JD situation may affect us keeping Schwarber or not, but with so much money coming off the books after 2022, I can see us keeping both, giving ERod a QO and still adding another solid pitcher at a high cost.

[moonslav59]

I guess there is talk of adding a floor of $100M and having the first line around $180M, but depending on the penalties and what the second and third lines are and mean, it’s hard to know for sure.

 

That might be one reason we stayed low and signed so many one year deals.

[jacksonianmarch]

There’s zero chance the union play’s that

[moonslav59]

There’s zero chance the union play’s that

 

The union would love a $100M floor. They’d give up a lot for just that. It would mean way more money than making the first tax line $180M

[jacksonianmarch]

 

The union would love a $100M floor. They’d give up a lot for just that. It would mean way more money than making the first tax line $180M

 

A $100 mil floor would mean the $180 mil acts like a cap. They don’t want a cap. And a $100 mil floor doesn’t mean much if the teams struggling to get to $100 mil just signed a bunch of guys on one year deals. The players union wants long term deals. A proposal like above would not meet that goal

[Hugh2]

I think adding a salary floor is a real possibility. But the union accepting a lower tax limit of 180 (even if the first line of penalties aren't that harsh) is about as absurd as the extension the Red Sox offered Jon Lester.

[Hugh2]

I think a sandwich pick.

 

That we will lose because I suspect the Sox are going to pick up some FA's. Pick #41 looks a little bit better now.

[jacksonianmarch]

On July 5, the Sox were comfortably atop the ALE at 54-32, 10.5 games ahead of the Yankees and 4.5 games up on the Rays. Since then the Sox are 18-24 and have given up 13.5 games to the yanks and 11.5 games to the Rays. That’s not a swoon, that’s a collapse

[jacksonianmarch]

s***, thought I was in the other thread.

[moonslav59]

A $100 mil floor would mean the $180 mil acts like a cap. They don’t want a cap. And a $100 mil floor doesn’t mean much if the teams struggling to get to $100 mil just signed a bunch of guys on one year deals. The players union wants long term deals. A proposal like above would not meet that goal

 

No, they were talking about different higher level tax lines, which makes me think the top end might be similar to the way it is now, but with a lower first level line.

 

As a player, the $100M line would be an enormous get. It would immediately mean massive pay raises for the lower and middle tier players, which happens to be the vast majority of players.

 

For a big market, big spending team fan perspective, I can see your point, but you are talking union wants and needs.

 

Now, if they up the penalties on going over the tax line, especially the first one, then some major push back will occur, but a $100M floor is huge!

[moonslav59]

On July 5, the Sox were comfortably atop the ALE at 54-32, 10.5 games ahead of the Yankees and 4.5 games up on the Rays. Since then the Sox are 18-24 and have given up 13.5 games to the yanks and 11.5 games to the Rays. That’s not a swoon, that’s a collapse

 

Nobody is disputing this point. You added that no team can comeback from that, and I gave 2 examples right off the top of my head.

[mvp 78]

A $100 mil floor would mean the $180 mil acts like a cap. They don’t want a cap. And a $100 mil floor doesn’t mean much if the teams struggling to get to $100 mil just signed a bunch of guys on one year deals. The players union wants long term deals. A proposal like above would not meet that goal

 

Plus, the $100M is still subsidized by large market teams.

[Bellhorn04]

No, they were talking about different higher level tax lines, which makes me think the top end might be similar to the way it is now, but with a lower first level line.

 

As a player, the $100M line would be an enormous get. It would immediately mean massive pay raises for the lower and middle tier players, which happens to be the vast majority of players.

 

For a big market, big spending team fan perspective, I can see your point, but you are talking union wants and needs.

 

Now, if they up the penalties on going over the tax line, especially the first one, then some major push back will occur, but a $100M floor is huge!

 

I like the floor, but the $180 mill first tax line sounds like a step backward. I'll be surprised if that comes to fruition. But maybe the structure will be very different from the previous one all around.

[mvp 78]

I like the floor, but the $180 mill first tax line sounds like a step backward. I'll be surprised if that comes to fruition.

 

Whatever they are openly stating now is just the first step in negotiating. There's no way in Hell it will look like that when the CBA is agreed to.

[jacksonianmarch]

For 2022, the Sox are in a bit of a quandary. This team is a pumpkin right now. Too many holes.

 

Pen is a mess. Honestly, the only guys who’ve been consistently ok are Whitlock and Sawamura. Ottavino becomes an FA at season’s end and I think Whitlock jumps into your rotation next year. So for pen, you’ve got Taylor, Barnes, Sawamura and DHern. You need to add a closer and a high leverage setup man to that mix to be competitive.

 

For rotation, Whitlock and Sale are locks, IMO. Houck is probably a lock as well, but as you’re seeing now, he’s not a three time through the lineup guy. If he doesn’t add a pitch, he might flip flop with Whitlock and jump into the pen. But for now you’ve got Sale, Whitlock, and Houck. Pivetta likely earns the 5th spot. Eovaldi likely ends up as your 2. There’s your 5. You could live like that, but having two rookie/first time full time big league starters is asking for injury. Bloom will add a veteran starter. My bet is it’ll be a Morton type near the end of their careers on a short term deal, not a high end talent on a long term deal.

 

Lineup, I think JD opts out. I honestly do. He should land himself a 3 yr deal and if he does so, you allow it. You sign Schwarber as your DH and roll from there. Verdugo, Kike, Devers, Xander is a good starting point, but Xander is entering his final year. Bloom is a value guy. There’s no way in holy hell he allows Xander to opt out. If they don’t negotiate an extension, I do think he will be moved. There’s no shortage of good SS’s hitting the market and maybe he can snag one of them cheaper than the cost of Xander’s extension. Devers is also getting up there in service time. My bet is Bloom will try to negotiate something with him, but it sounds like Devers is a one year at a time guy. If they don’t negotiate an extension, 2022 will be his final year in Boston.

[mvp 78]

For 2022, the Sox are in a bit of a quandary. This team is a pumpkin right now. Too many holes.

 

Pen is a mess. Honestly, the only guys who’ve been consistently ok are Whitlock and Sawamura. Ottavino becomes an FA at season’s end and I think Whitlock jumps into your rotation next year. So for pen, you’ve got Taylor, Barnes, Sawamura and DHern. You need to add a closer and a high leverage setup man to that mix to be competitive.

 

For rotation, Whitlock and Sale are locks, IMO. Houck is probably a lock as well, but as you’re seeing now, he’s not a three time through the lineup guy. If he doesn’t add a pitch, he might flip flop with Whitlock and jump into the pen. But for now you’ve got Sale, Whitlock, and Houck. Pivetta likely earns the 5th spot. Eovaldi likely ends up as your 2. There’s your 5. You could live like that, but having two rookie/first time full time big league starters is asking for injury. Bloom will add a veteran starter. My bet is it’ll be a Morton type near the end of their careers on a short term deal, not a high end talent on a long term deal.

 

Lineup, I think JD opts out. I honestly do. He should land himself a 3 yr deal and if he does so, you allow it. You sign Schwarber as your DH and roll from there. Verdugo, Kike, Devers, Xander is a good starting point, but Xander is entering his final year. Bloom is a value guy. There’s no way in holy hell he allows Xander to opt out. If they don’t negotiate an extension, I do think he will be moved. There’s no shortage of good SS’s hitting the market and maybe he can snag one of them cheaper than the cost of Xander’s extension. Devers is also getting up there in service time. My bet is Bloom will try to negotiate something with him, but it sounds like Devers is a one year at a time guy. If they don’t negotiate an extension, 2022 will be his final year in Boston.

 

Wow, talk about kicking us when we're down...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

For 2022, the Sox are in a bit of a quandary. This team is a pumpkin right now. Too many holes.

 

Pen is a mess. Honestly, the only guys who’ve been consistently ok are Whitlock and Sawamura. Ottavino becomes an FA at season’s end and I think Whitlock jumps into your rotation next year. So for pen, you’ve got Taylor, Barnes, Sawamura and DHern. You need to add a closer and a high leverage setup man to that mix to be competitive.

 

For rotation, Whitlock and Sale are locks, IMO. Houck is probably a lock as well, but as you’re seeing now, he’s not a three time through the lineup guy. If he doesn’t add a pitch, he might flip flop with Whitlock and jump into the pen. But for now you’ve got Sale, Whitlock, and Houck. Pivetta likely earns the 5th spot. Eovaldi likely ends up as your 2. There’s your 5. You could live like that, but having two rookie/first time full time big league starters is asking for injury. Bloom will add a veteran starter. My bet is it’ll be a Morton type near the end of their careers on a short term deal, not a high end talent on a long term deal.

 

Lineup, I think JD opts out. I honestly do. He should land himself a 3 yr deal and if he does so, you allow it. You sign Schwarber as your DH and roll from there. Verdugo, Kike, Devers, Xander is a good starting point, but Xander is entering his final year. Bloom is a value guy. There’s no way in holy hell he allows Xander to opt out. If they don’t negotiate an extension, I do think he will be moved. There’s no shortage of good SS’s hitting the market and maybe he can snag one of them cheaper than the cost of Xander’s extension. Devers is also getting up there in service time. My bet is Bloom will try to negotiate something with him, but it sounds like Devers is a one year at a time guy. If they don’t negotiate an extension, 2022 will be his final year in Boston.

 

I heard the plan is to trade Devers and Bogaerts to New York for Odor and Velasquez. With that new left side, it's obvious the Red Sox will never lose again.

[Bellhorn04]

For 2022, the Sox are in a bit of a quandary. This team is a pumpkin right now. Too many holes.

 

So a Hallowe'en pumpkin.

[Bellhorn04]

Wow, talk about kicking us when we're down...

 

He's real good at that.

[moonslav59]

He's real good at that.

 

To his credit, he was really good at kicking his own team, when they were down, too.

[Bellhorn04]

To his credit, he was really good at kicking his own team, when they were down, too.

 

Yes, he kicks everything that's down.

[Nick]

Wow, talk about kicking us when we're down...

 

He's a good poster but his frequency here is strictly tied to how the Yankees are doing.

[moonslav59]

Yes, he kicks everything that's down.

 

He'll kick the Yanks again, after we beat their asses in the WC game.

 

He'll call for Boone and Cashman's heads, again.

[jacksonianmarch]

He's a good poster but his frequency here is strictly tied to how the Yankees are doing.

 

Not true my friend. Not true. My frequency is directly tied to my work schedule.

[Bellhorn04]

Not true my friend. Not true. My frequency is directly tied to my work schedule.

 

But you seem to work less when the Yankees are good and/or we're bad.

[notin]

But you seem to work less when the Yankees are good and/or we're bad.

 

He’s in New York City. When the Yankees are bad, folks there get more violent…