A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[Hugh2]

Why? The very evidence you cite shows them going from 1st to 6th in two years. They didn't get that way through liberal spending.

 

So their lowest spending year has them still outspending 24 of 30 teams and you think that’s evidence they aren’t one if the biggest spenders?

 

The Sox spend money, over the long term horizon almost more than any other team, no one can call them frugal. Point.

[Bellhorn04]

So their lowest spending year has them still outspending 24 of 30 teams and you think that’s evidence they aren’t one if the biggest spenders?

 

The Sox spend money, over the long term horizon almost more than any other team, no one can call them frugal. Point.

 

They do spend, and I'm not complaining about JH, never have. But you also have to consider that a lot of the teams we outspend couldn't match us in spending if they wanted to, because they don't have the revenues.

[Hugh2]

MLB revenues vary by team, but the luxury tax limit is the same for all.

[dgalehouse]

The Red Sox are obviously still one of the bigger spenders in MLB. It is also obvious that they have reigned in their spending somewhat since winning it all in 2018. And like it or not , it shows on the field.

[notin]

Carlos Rodon, 28, would be a good target. Will Bloom outbid Cashman?

 

Do people really think they will be a bidding war for a 28yo pitcher who threw 238 innings total across the previous 4 seasons, and in them had an ERA+ of 97?

 

I suppose that makes him Eovaldi 2.0…

[notin]

They do spend, and I'm not complaining about JH, never have. But you also have to consider that a lot of the teams we outspend couldn't match us in spending if they wanted to, because they don't have the revenues.

 

MLB set a record $10.7 billion in revenue in 2019.

 

I think a lot more teams have the revenue to spend like Boston, but simply choose not to…

[Hugh2]

The Red Sox are obviously still one of the bigger spenders in MLB. It is also obvious that they have reigned in their spending somewhat since winning it all in 2018. And like it or not , it shows on the field.

 

Yes but this isn’t a new development. The penalties for exceeding the luxury tax are progressive, the further and longer above the threshold you spend the harsher the penalties become. Teams like the Sox have shown time and time again they’re willing to go above the luxury tax threshold only to get below it and reset.

 

The only team who has not done this has been LA, and even that’s changing as they’re getting below it.

Even in “down years” the Sox still have top payroll, and we can fully expect them to reverse course and use a reset year to set themselves up to spend big again.

[Hugh2]

Also It showing on the field isn’t an indictment of them being “low spenders” how much if their payroll is tied up in guys like David Price? This is what happens when you spend like a drunken sailor, you pay for it in later years.

[notin]

Also It showing on the field isn’t an indictment of them being “low spenders” how much if their payroll is tied up in guys like David Price? This is what happens when you spend like a drunken sailor, you pay for it in later years.

 

Exactly…

[notin]

The Red Sox are obviously still one of the bigger spenders in MLB. It is also obvious that they have reigned in their spending somewhat since winning it all in 2018. And like it or not , it shows on the field.

 

This isn’t the NFL with non-guaranteed contracts and this isn’t the NBA with contract buyouts. Spending in MLB has no such escapes.

 

What is showing up in the field is the byproduct of spending heavily in the recent past…

[moonslav59]

The Red Sox are obviously still one of the bigger spenders in MLB. It is also obvious that they have reigned in their spending somewhat since winning it all in 2018. And like it or not , it shows on the field.

 

They actually spent a lot, last winter. The problem was our 26 and 40 man rosters had so many holes in it, we had to spread the money thinly, instead of all on 2 key players.

 

10 Richards

9 Ottavino

7 Kike

6 Pérez

3 Marwin

Plus guys like Renfroe, Andries and Santana

 

We spent about $40M on upgrades and still had Pedey and Price on the books.

 

How many other teams spent $40M in new money after the COVID 2020 season.

 

[moonslav59]

Also It showing on the field isn’t an indictment of them being “low spenders” how much if their payroll is tied up in guys like David Price? This is what happens when you spend like a drunken sailor, you pay for it in later years.

 

The funny thing is, their solution is to spend like drunken sailors, again, so we can find the next CC, Pablo, HRam and Price.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Do people really think they will be a bidding war for a 28yo pitcher who threw 238 innings total across the previous 4 seasons, and in them had an ERA+ of 97?

 

I suppose that makes him Eovaldi 2.0…

 

Rodon will still be a better recruit than Richards ANY DIGIT.O...

[moonslav59]

Rodon will still be a better recruit than Richards ANY DIGIT.O...

 

Is anyone hinting at re-signing Richards or taking the option?

.

[oldtimer]

Sorry for the length of this. I am trying to break comments into segments, but they still get long.

 

Active Roster field players 2022

The following is my view of the field players who are currently starters on the 2021 squad and have a place or may have a similar place in 2022. I also believe that we should keep 13 active field players on the roster with the utility guys being very important and needing improvement in 2022

 

1. Hernandez has shown himself to be an effective defensive center fielder and second baseman. If he can play center he can also play either right or left so he has that much sought after versatility. He came to the Sox as a utility guy but his offensive performance from the leadoff makes him an every day player. He is an ambush hitter and will swing early if the pitcher tries to get an early fastball by him. He has quite a few strikeouts but also will take a walk and grind on a pitcher. He has good speed as a baserunner.

 

2. Devers appears to have gotten more comfortable defensively at third base and will probably stay there. A very important part of the team who can get to almost any ball and hit it with power., perhaps because of his great hand-eye coordination. He may become ore selective at the plate over time which would make him even more important. Hope the Sox sign him for a long term deal

 

3. Bogaerts in my opinion is a key senior player on the team despite being only around 29. He doesn’t have great range but is very dependable. He knows the strike zone and knows what he can hit hard and when to go to the opposite field. I see him as the most advanced hitter on the team with Schwaber being the only challenger.

 

4. Martinez is clearly a very valuable player but is one dimensional with DH being his best position. He can fill in as a corner outfielder but is second rate defensively. Surprisingly, he chases balls too often for my liking. He no doubt is a mentor to younger players so has extra value in that regard. He can opt out next year if he wants to give up a 1 year $19 mil deal. I expect to be disagreed with in my view that we should make a priority of signing Schwaber for up to a 5 year deal. Martinez is 34 and may not decline steeply but I would trade him away or let him opt out as one DH is all the team needs.

 

5. Verdugo is a good young outfielder defensively, has reasonable speed and is a good left-handed hitter. I recommend he reconsider his high loft swing to return to a more consistent line drive hitter. HRs will come naturally.

 

6. Renfroe is a very good defensive right fielder with good speed and a strong arm. His hit tool is only average and he chases outside the zone but his power is good and he can contribute to the team as any every-day player. I would bat him toward the back of the order.

 

7. Arroyo is a hidden gem on the team who can play second and sub in for SS or 3rd. He was tried to fill a need at 1st but I would find another person for that. He is one of the better right-handed hitters on the team with good contact and reasonable power. He is coming into his prime years. A complaint about his durability has stemmed from a couple of contusions this hear along with a pulled hamstring while playing out of position. His durability may be fine.

 

8. Vazquez is a steady catcher and has been durable. His defense and framing are not the best and his hitting has been on a steady decline. Given the premium new FA catchers bring, it might be difficult to find a young capable catcher to replace him. He is 31 now. He represents an obvious hole on the team so at least we should take a hard look at options for 2022. None of our prospects look exciting.

 

9. Dalbec is an older rookie who I consider a below average defensive 1st baseman. His hit tool is below average and his strikeout rate is high. His one special talent is his immense power. I see keeping him to bat against lefties in a platoon system. Lefties comprise about 25 percent of starters we face.

 

Utility Players

1. Plawecki is a good backup catcher who can hit enough to continue in thee 2021 role. His receiving and framing are adequate for the role and he should be kept.

 

2. Duran brings something much needed on this team and that is plus speed. His defense in CF has been fine and his hitting is coming along, considering he was a rookie. He has good power and may well become an every-day player with more experience.

 

3. Munoz proved to be a good contact hitter in 2020 and was doing well in the minors but was not given the opportunity to come up to the 2021 club which I view as a mistake by management. He has utility defensively for both outfield and infield but admittedly his defensive is only average. If we don’t bring him up, perhaps DeShields will show himself to be worthy.

 

4. Casas is a left-handed power hitting first-baseman with soft hands and a good hit tool. I don’t see him making the team out of ST but he fills an immediate need for the team and I believe he will make the team at mid-season 2022. In the mean-time, we will need someone to fill in. I don’t think Shaw is that guy so maybe we look for a short term FA who can fill in for as long toas it takes Casas to show he is ready.

 

Rest of 40 man field players separately.

[Bellhorn04]

Also It showing on the field isn’t an indictment of them being “low spenders” how much if their payroll is tied up in guys like David Price? This is what happens when you spend like a drunken sailor, you pay for it in later years.

 

2021 dead money:

 

Price 16 mill

Pedroia 13.75 mill

 

We've had a lot of dead money since the 2014-15 offseason with the Pablo/Hanley/Rusney troika of signings.

[Nick]

The Red Sox are obviously still one of the bigger spenders in MLB. It is also obvious that they have reigned in their spending somewhat since winning it all in 2018. And like it or not , it shows on the field.

 

We have $30M in dead money. Our luxury tax payroll for 'active' players is $180M.

 

Think what we could had added for $30M? Maybe we wouldn't have signed Richards, thus giving us a war chest of $40M. That doesn't include not having Sale for most of the year.

 

We need to get through the Pedey/Price phase.

 

It's possible we're looking at 2023 for going all in when JD/Eovaldi is gone. That's total of $70M.

 

It will be time to take another shot at an ace.

Edited August 22, 2021 by Nick

[Nick]

2021 dead money:

 

Price 16 mill

Pedroia 13.75 mill

 

We've had a lot of dead money since the 2014-15 offseason with the Pablo/Hanley/Rusney troika of signings.

 

you beat me to it.

[Bellhorn04]

If and when Chaim Bloom does sign someone to a big contract, there's a risk some of that will end up dead money too. They don't call them guaranteed contracts for nothing.

 

The Pedroia dead money was just bad luck.

 

It's a cost of doing business for rich teams, IMHO

[Nick]

Nothing good happens without quality starting pitching staff. Need starters that can right the ship when the team goes south. Now we're down to Chris Sale because our manager doesn't trust Houck. He trusts every other lousy pitchers on our staff.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If and when Chaim Bloom does sign someone to a big contract, there's a risk some of that will end up dead money too. They don't call them guaranteed contracts for nothing.

 

The Pedroia dead money was just bad luck.

 

It's a cost of doing business for rich teams, IMHO

 

The Sox should've known because Pedey was so short!!! If Machado had stabbed a sharp metal implement into 6'4 DJ LeMahieu's knee ligaments, the mad spiker would've bounced all the way back to the dugout. Well... maybe just first base, since Machado is 6'3.

[illinoisredsox]

Just saw this on the new CBA negotiations. First luxury tax would kick in at $180M with 3 rates above that.

 

However, there is also a proposal for a $100M salary floor, which would be fantastic IMO.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/08/mlb-reportedly-proposes-180mm-first-luxury-tax-threshold-100mm-salary-floor-to-mlbpa.html

[dgalehouse]

In general, high quality items are more expensive. And sometimes they break. This includes baseball players. A lot of folks have a money ball and fantasy league obsession with building a champion for less money. And that's fine. But MLB is a big business , a part of the huge entertainment industry , not rotisserie baseball. And they charge the fans top dollar. The owners love to save money , and of course, we don't ever get to see the books.

[moonslav59]

Nice summary old timer. I eagerly await your breakdown of our returning pitchers.

 

Here’s what I would add:

 

Devers on D has gotten “comfortable looking” several times in recent years, only to relapse into stinkdom, often in April’s. I’m still open to moving him to 1B, a position we happen to be very weak at. That begs the question, who plays third?

 

I’ve never been high on Bogey’s D at SS, but he is clearly a big net plus, so no beef, here.

 

JD’s opt out is big question mark, this winter. I have mixed feelings about what I’d like him to choose. If he goes, I hope we can keep Schwarber, but keeping both only hurts our D, even if just for one year.

 

I was hoping Verdugo could be an .850 hitter: now, I wonder about .780. His D is fine.

 

If Renfroe can stay near .800, he’ll be a great steal by Bloom. His RF D shocked me. Let’s keep him in RF, Kike in CF and Verdugo in LF. It’s the one solid defensive part of out team, but we’ve had to mess with it, too often.

 

Vaz has not been on a steady decline on offense. His 2019-2020 numbers were the best back to back seasons of his career and was about .800. That’s awesome for a catcher. I’m not sure what happened, this year, but it’s not the first time he’s yo-yo’d. I won’t get into my feelings about our staff’s comfort pitching to him. I love Plawecki as a back-up- not a starter.

 

I expected better D from Dalbec, or at least signs of marked improvement. Struggling on offense was a little more predictable, but he still has a lot to prove. I’m not sure how long a leash a contending team can give to a guy who p,as a position known for big offense. I’ve not given up on him, but my hopes are lower than they were over the winter. We need a better 1B plan, next year. Mayb e Schwarber can play there vs RHPs for one year, then move to DH.

 

I don’t see Munoz, Arauz or Casas as anyone we should count on for anything in 2022, except maybe as 3rd stringers.

 

Duran should get plenty of playing time as the 4th OFer, especially if Kike is needed at 2B a significant amount of time, as Arroyo’s health may be an issue, or he may be needed at SS, 3B, 1B as relief or in case of injury.

 

I like what we have coming back on offense and don’t see any easy fixes on defense that don’t mess up our offense. Move Devers to 1B? Trade Bogey before his opt out? Find a better catcher somehow? Sign a 1B that can hit and field well?

 

I think we’ll add a 1Bman or Schwarber plus a utility guy better than Marwin was.

 

The new pitchers will be the keys.

Edited August 22, 2021 by moonslav59

[notin]

Nice summary old timer. I eagerly await your breakdown of our returning pitchers.

 

Here’s what I would add:

 

Devers on D has gotten “comfortable looking” several times in recent years, only to relapse into stinkdom, often in April’s. I’m still open to moving him to 1B, a position we happen to be very weak at. That begs the question, who plays third?

 

I’ve never been high on Bogey’s D at SS, but he is clearly a big net plus, so no beef, here.

 

JD’s opt out is big question mark, this winter. I have mixed feelings about what I’d like him to choose. If he goes, I hope we can keep Schwarber, but keeping both only hurts our D, even if just for one year.

 

I was hoping Verdugo could be an .850 hitter: now, I wonder about .780. His D is fine.

 

If Renfroe can stay near .800, he’ll be a great steal by Bloom. His RF D shocked me. Let’s keep him in RF, Kike in CF and Verdugo in LF. It’s the one solid defensive part of out team, but we’ve had to mess with it, too often.

 

Vaz has not been on a steady decline on offense. His 2019-2020 numbers were the best back to back seasons of his career and was about .800. That’s awesome for a catcher. I’m not sure what happened, this year, but it’s not the first time he’s yo-yo’d. I won’t get into my feelings about our staff’s comfort pitching to him. I love Plawecki as a back-up- not a starter.

 

I expected better D from Dalbec, or at least signs of marked improvement. Struggling on offense was a little more predictable, but he still has a lot to prove. I’m not sure how long a leash a contending team can give to a guy who p,as a position known for big offense. I’ve not given up on him, but my hopes are lower than they were over the winter. We need a better 1B plan, next year. Mayb e Schwarber can play there vs RHPs for one year, then move to DH.

 

I don’t see Munoz, Arauz or Casas as anyone we should count on for anything in 2022, except maybe as 3rd stringers.

 

Duran should get plenty of playing time as the 4th OFer, especially if Kike is needed at 2B a significant amount of time, as Arroyo’s health may be an issue, or he may be needed at SS, 3B, 1B as relief or in case of injury.

 

I like what we have coming back on offense and don’t see any easy fixes on defense that don’t mess up our offense. Move Devers to 1B? Trade Bogey before his opt out? Find a better catcher somehow? Sign a 1B that can hit and field well?

 

I think we’ll add a 1Bman or Schwarber plus a utility guy better than Marwin was.

 

The new pitchers will be the keys.

 

I think they’ll move Bogaerts for something (hopefully) decent, be it pitcher or 1b( or 3b?) Bring in a better glove at SS. And avoid the whole “opt out” issue by making or someone else’s problem…

[moonslav59]

I’ll go over what next year’s pitching staff looks like.

 

Gone or mostly likely gone:

ERod (free agent)

Ottavino (free agent)

Richards (option declined)

Perez (option very likely declined)

Andriese (already gone)

Robles (free agent)

 

That’s a lot of money off the books for only 2 key slots to backfill. Here’s my look at the 13 man staff for 2022:

(What I think not necessarily what I want)

 

Sale

_____ (FA)

Eovaldi

Pivetta

Whitlock

_____ (FA)

 

Houck

Barnes

_____ (FA)

DHern

Taylor

Sawamura

Brasier

 

AAA depth:

Seabold, Winckowski, Crawford, Bello

Valdez, Rios, Davis, Bazardo

 

It’s hard for me to name names for the 3 slots we might fill via free agency or trade. I like R Iglesias as a closer/set up man but doubt we outbid everyone for a pen arm. I’d like us to find a younger arm for a solid #1 or 2 slot starter, but none jump out at me as being large and long type contracts, to me. I think we sign an aging starter or two rather than look for or repeat the Price type deal.

42 Rich Hill

39 Verlander

38 Greinke

38 Morton

37 Scherzer

36 Kluber

36 Cueto (no)

34 Kershaw

 

[moonslav59]

I think they’ll move Bogaerts for something (hopefully) decent, be it pitcher or 1b( or 3b?) Bring in a better glove at SS. And avoid the whole “opt out” issue by making or someone else’s problem…

 

I could see that happening, and fans would love to point out how that was Bloom’s MO in Tampa.

 

I could also see us trade Vaz a year before free agency, but catchers are hard to find. (That’s also why Vaz’s trade value might get a nice return.)

[Fan_since_Boggs]

How about this for next year's starting staff:

 

1. Sale

2. Eovaldi

3. Kevin Gausman (free agent)

4. Pivetta

5. Houck and Whitlock (at times the Red Sox will use a 6 man rotation, in other instances, the Red Sox will use a 5 man rotation with Houck going to the bullpen at times and Whitlock going to the bullpen at times. The Red Sox will need to manage Whitlock's innings--he certainly can't throw 200 innings next year).

 

AAA depth (very impressive):

Seabold

Bello

Winckowski

 

I've been looking into Gausman, he is young enough (will pitch next season at age 31) and is the real deal (he has a plus, hard-to-hit splitter). The only problem I see: he will cost a lot of money in free agency and other teams will want him. And the Giants will want to bring him back.

 

What are people's thoughts on Gausman? If you don't like Gausman, which free agent starter should the Red Sox pursue?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I could see that happening, and fans would love to point out how that was Bloom’s MO in Tampa.

 

I could also see us trade Vaz a year before free agency, but catchers are hard to find. (That’s also why Vaz’s trade value might get a nice return.)

 

In concept, I was surprised Bloom extended Barnes mid-season, but in context for an All-Star closer, it was a team-friendly deal. As for the Tampa MO, I could still see Bloom trading Barnes and not signing a big-money reliever. It's more likely the Sox convert a homegrown prospect in the hopes of finding a Papelbon. The Rays always develop their back-end bullpens by stockpiling young power arms making league minimums. Bloom did acquire the relatively expensive Ottavino, but thought it was worth it to get German.

 

The big expenditures will be for starting pitching or for a star infielder to replace someone traded for a starter... and maybe to sign Schwarber.

[moonslav59]

How about this for next year's starting staff:

 

1. Sale

2. Eovaldi

3. Kevin Gausman (free agent)

4. Pivetta

5. Houck and Whitlock (at times the Red Sox will use a 6 man rotation, in other instances, the Red Sox will use a 5 man rotation with Houck going to the bullpen at times and Whitlock going to the bullpen at times. The Red Sox will need to manage Whitlock's innings--he certainly can't throw 200 innings next year).

 

AAA depth (very impressive):

Seabold

Bello

Winckowski

 

I've been looking into Gausman, he is young enough (will pitch next season at age 31) and is the real deal (he has a plus, hard-to-hit splitter). The only problem I see: he will cost a lot of money in free agency and other teams will want him. And the Giants will want to bring him back.

 

What are people's thoughts on Gausman? If you don't like Gausman, which free agent starter should the Red Sox pursue?

 

I like Gausman, but he’s not the type of guy I give the type of deal he will get.

 

Plus, he could easily be a flash in the pan.

 

He sucked in 2018, was nothing special before that and has a smallish sample size of doing well.

 

He has never pitched 187 innings. That’s too many ifs for. Me.

 

One more thing, the whole idea of a 6 man rotation seems like fantasy, to me..

Edited August 22, 2021 by moonslav59