A Realistic View at 2021: Part III

[Kimmi]

Meh. Label me the advocate for "hit first, defend later" crowd.

 

I do love great defense, however, because it is the poetry of baseball which is too often defined by the relentless, endless, prosaic confrontation between pitcher and hitter batter which composes 90% of every game. Most 4 hour games can be boiled down to 10-15 minutes of: final pitches of walks or K's, fair balls hit and ensuing defense/baserunning, balks, HBP's, etc.

 

That said, the big bats--herewith defined as Devers, JDM, Renfroe, Dalbec, Bogey, and Schwarber--are going to get into the lineup one way or another. I added Dalbec because of his 70 rbi's and .793 OPS and despite his negative DWAR, which I think is misleading. Kike and Verdugo will get in there because they can hit and field. Indeed, someone quoted Cora as saying Kike is the best fielding second baseman he's seen. Thus this lineup:

 

Kike, 2b, DWAR +1.7

Schwarber LF/DH/1b, DWAR -.3

Bogey SS, DWAR 0.0

Devers 3b, DWAR -.4

JDM DH/LF, DWAR -.9

Renfroe RF, DWAR -.2

Dalbec 1b, DWAR -1.3

Verdugo CF DWAR +.2

Vazquez C, DWAR +1.1

 

Duran, Arroyo, Plawecki, et al, play as needed.

 

The line up that you posted looks really good, no doubt. I am one who values defense very highly. In last night's game alone, we saw what happens with poor defense (5 run bottom of the 4th for the White Sox) and what happens when good defensive plays are made.

 

Ultimately, I think you have to play the best overall player at each position. While I prefer strong defense up the middle, there's no question that Bogaerts helps the team more than someone like supposed defensive wizard Jose Iglesias would.

[Kimmi]

Well, we'll see "my" lineup tonight, 9 of 9 if not in the same order. I disagree about Dalbec because he has been hitting well in both August and September and because his defense at 1b has improved, which was inevitable. 1b is not hard even though it's much too hard for Arroyo, the same guy who has played all of 53 games this season. Thus Kike at 2b because, unlike Iglesias, he doesn't have bad hands and can hit. Verdugo in CF, I agree, is a step down, but he still has a decent bat. Same for Renfroe in RF, Schwarber in LF, JDM at DH, Devers at 3b, and Bogey at SS.

 

Too late to fix the defense this year. I thought Iglesias would help but he cost last night's game with a terrible play on an easy grounder. Plus 2-3 games ago he cost a GIDP by fumbling the throw to 2b.

 

Dalbec has been the best offensive player in baseball since the trade deadline. Also, I agree that his defense has improved.

 

On a side note, in a short sample, Travis Shaw has turned into a nice little pickup.

[Maxbialystock]

I was unable to watch the game last night. It appeared to be a thriller. Did anyone get to watch it? I was especially interested in how Seabold looked. Another bad error by Rafie but also some good defense by others.

 

Seabold did not fare well with respect to your four criteria for a starter and was lucky to last 3 innings and 2 runs.

 

Yes, bad error by Devers, but those 5 unearned runs are a tad misleading because Richards did in fact give up 5 hits and 2 walks, so the odds are he would have given up earned runs in the 5th inning which were unearned in the 4th. Overall Sox defense was pretty good--good grab deep against the wall by Verdugo, another good one by Renfroe and even Schwarber, at least two good grabs by Dalbec at 1b, and some overall solid play by Bogey. Plus Kike solid at 2b.

 

Except for Richards--who was charged with 0 earned runs despite 5 hits and 2 BB's--the bullpen looked pretty darn good: Robles, Feliz, Whitlock, and Taylor went the final 5 innings (6th thru 10th) while giving up 0 runs. Taylor gave up a hard hit single to the leadoff Chicago hitter in the 10th which did not allow the guy on 2b to score--Schwarber was playing shallow in LF. Then he struck two and got the last guy on a groundout.

 

Chicago pitchers had 15 K's, which is usually an indicator of good pitching.

 

No way, no how would I have started Shaw at DH. Cora knows what he is doing.

[Kimmi]

The Jays were lucky to win game 1, and the Yanks won on an error by Baez.

 

We had some luck, too, so there's that.

 

Big game, tomorrow.

 

These were all one run wins. Luck plays a huge role. Any of those games could have gone either way.

[Kimmi]

Seabold did not fare well with respect to your four criteria for a starter and was lucky to last 3 innings and 2 runs.

 

Yes, bad error by Devers, but those 5 unearned runs are a tad misleading because Richards did in fact give up 5 hits and 2 walks, so the odds are he would have given up earned runs in the 5th inning which were unearned in the 4th. Overall Sox defense was pretty good--good grab deep against the wall by Verdugo, another good one by Renfroe and even Schwarber, at least two good grabs by Dalbec at 1b, and some overall solid play by Bogey. Plus Kike solid at 2b.

 

Except for Richards--who was charged with 0 earned runs despite 5 hits and 2 BB's--the bullpen looked pretty darn good: Robles, Feliz, Whitlock, and Taylor went the final 5 innings (6th thru 10th) while giving up 0 runs. Taylor gave up a hard hit single to the leadoff Chicago hitter in the 10th which did not allow the guy on 2b to score--Schwarber was playing shallow in LF. Then he struck two and got the last guy on a groundout.

 

Chicago pitchers had 15 K's, which is usually an indicator of good pitching.

 

No way, no how would I have started Shaw at DH. Cora knows what he is doing.

 

Sorry Max, but I don't agree with that logic. Failure to even get one out on a double play ball changes the whole dynamic of the inning. Also, I don't think Richards gave up 5 hits, though either way, that doesn't change my opinion in my previous statement.

 

As far as starting Shaw at DH, I think Cora is running rather low on options. But yes, it turned out to be a great decision.

[Bellhorn04]

As far as starting Shaw at DH, I think Cora is running rather low on options. But yes, it turned out to be a great decision.

 

Shaw - what a pro he has been.

[Nick]

Could Boston Red Sox promote prospect Durbin Feltman to help bullpen? ‘I knew 2019 was a fluke. I knew that wasn’t me’ Per MassLive

 

Sure, why not?

[Nick]

Dalbec has been the best offensive player in baseball since the trade deadline. Also, I agree that his defense has improved.

 

On a side note, in a short sample, Travis Shaw has turned into a nice little pickup.

 

We're at least doing somethings right. We are still in the hunt.

 

It's been an enlightening season. We're getting to see much of our organizational talent.

[Bellhorn04]

Could Boston Red Sox promote prospect Durbin Feltman to help bullpen? ‘I knew 2019 was a fluke. I knew that wasn’t me’ Per MassLive

 

Sure, why not?

 

Feltman's Worcester numbers are solid. 20 IP 14 H 4 BB 21 K

[a700hitter]

Dalbec has been the best offensive player in baseball since the trade deadline. Also, I agree that his defense has improved.

 

On a side note, in a short sample, Travis Shaw has turned into a nice little pickup.

Without his emergence, the team’s tailspin would have knocked the Red Sox completely out of the playoff picture. If ERod also had rebounded, we would be in very solid shape, but he continues to perform poorly and we are hanging in by our fingertips.

[a700hitter]

It’s September 12th, which Red Sox players have COVID today!

[moonslav59]

Sox OPS since the trade deadline (July 30):

 

1.134 Dalbec

1.000 T Shaw (34 PAs)

.989 Renfroe

.936 Schwarber

.860 Verdugo

.825 Kike

.813 Bogey

.754 JD

.735 Devers

.719 Vaz

.707 Plawecki (62)

.622 Arauz (65)

.609 Duran (75)

 

Note: The big 3- Devers, Bogey & JD- are all under .814.

 

ERA- since July 30th:

 

56 Sale

62 Richards

71 Whitlock

83 Eovaldi

87 ERod

88 Taylor

95 Houck

 

102 Davis

116 Pivetta

119 Ottavino

127 Robles

226 Perez

 

Less than 10 IP

0 DHern

66 Schreiber

88 Sawamura

92 Feliz

92 Gonsalves

 

108 Rios

108 Brasier

133 Seabold

199 Espinal

247 Valdez

298 Barnes

335 Peacock

497 Crawford

 

[moonslav59]

Last 20 days of the season: (Red=highly competitive team)

 

BOS

3 @SEA, 3 BAL, 2 NYM, 3 NYY, 3@BAL, 3@WSH

 

TOR

3 TBR, 3 MIN, 3@TBR, 4@MIN, 3 NYY, 3 BAL

 

NYY

1 MN, 3@BAL, 3 CLE, 3 TEX, 3@BOS, 3@TOR, 3 TBR

 

SEA

3 BOS, 3@KCR, 4@OAK, 3@LAA, 3 OAK, 3 LAA

 

OAK

@KCR, 3@LAA, 4 SEA, 3 HOU, 3@SEA, 3@HOU

 

Once we get past the SEA series, we'll be the only team with just one really tough series left. (One might say the 2 game Mets series is as tough as playing OAK or SEA, but I'm not so sure.)

 

[moonslav59]

Here's how our pitching might line up:

 

@SEA ERod (+1 day rest)

@SEA Eovaldi (+1)

@SEA Houck

off

BAL Pivetta

BAL ERod

BAL Eovaldi

off

NYM Sale (back from Covid)

NYM Pivetta

off

NYY ERod (+1)

NYY Eovaldi (+1)

NYY Houck (much extra rest- used in pen)

off

@BAL Sale

@BAL Pivetta (+2)ERod

@BAL ERod (+1)

@WSH Eovaldi (+1)

@WSH Houck (Much extra rest)

@WSH Sale, if needed/ Seabold, if not

[harmony]

Last 20 days of the season: (Red=highly competitive team)

 

BOS

3 @SEA, 3 BAL, 2 NYM, 3 NYY, 3@BAL, 3@WSH

 

TOR

3 TBR, 3 MIN, 3@TBR, 4@MIN, 3 NYY, 3 BAL

 

NYY

1 MN, 3@BAL, 3 CLE, 3 TEX, 3@BOS, 3@TOR, 3 TBR

 

SEA

3 BOS, 3@KCR, 4@OAK, 3@LAA, 3 OAK, 3 LAA

 

OAK

@KCR, 3@LAA, 4 SEA, 3 HOU, 3@SEA, 3@HOU

 

Once we get past the SEA series, we'll be the only team with just one really tough series left. (One might say the 2 game Mets series is as tough as playing OAK or SEA, but I'm not so sure.)

 

Currently at 13-17, the Red Sox are guaranteed of a losing record against AL West teams with three games remaining against the Seattle Mariners.

 

Currently at 18-13, the Mariners are guaranteed of a winning record against AL East teams with three games remaining against the Red Sox.

 

Currently at 11-4, the Red Sox are guaranteed of a winning record against NL East teams, with five games remaining against the New York Mets and Washington Nationals.

 

The Mariners have closed out their interleague schedule with a 9-11 record against NL West teams.

 

Different divisions present different challenges.

[moonslav59]

Currently at 13-17, the Red Sox are guaranteed of a losing record against AL West teams with three games remaining against the Seattle Mariners.

 

Currently at 18-13, the Mariners are guaranteed of a winning record against AL East teams with three games remaining against the Red Sox.

 

Currently at 11-4, the Red Sox are guaranteed of a winning record against NL East teams, with five games remaining against the New York Mets and Washington Nationals.

 

The Mariners have closed out their interleague schedule with a 9-11 record against NL West teams.

 

Different divisions present different challenges.

 

I've never been big on this type of stuff.

 

For instance, what would it matter how much better or worse we are vs the AL Central than SEA?

[harmony]

I've never been big on this type of stuff.

 

For instance, what would it matter how much better or worse we are vs the AL Central than SEA?

Indeed, the Red Sox are 20-13 against the AL Central while the Seattle Mariners are 13-16 against the AL Central.

 

In a larger sample, AL East teams are 82-68 against AL Central teams while AL West teams are 81-69 against AL Central teams.

 

In the close Wild Card race involving three AL East teams and two AL West teams. the difference in the interleague schedules -- against the NL East and far stronger NL West -- could tip the balance.

 

Or not.

Edited September 13, 2021 by harmony

[Larry Cook]

Valdez to the covid program.

 

He definitely pitched like he had it.

[moonslav59]

Indeed, the Red Sox are 20-13 against the AL Central while the Seattle Mariners are 13-16 against the AL Central.

 

In a larger sample, AL East teams are 82-68 against AL Central teams while AL West teams are 81-69 against AL Central teams.

 

In the close Wild Card race involving three AL East teams and two AL West teams. the difference in the interleague schedules -- against the NL East and far stronger NL West -- could tip the balance.

 

Or not.

 

So, you can read a lot into these divisional records.

 

Or not.

[Bellhorn04]

So, you can read a lot into these divisional records.

 

Or not.

 

There's a pile of randomness involved.

 

Here's something that might be more pertinent:

 

The AL East has 4 teams with positive run differential.

The AL West has 2 teams with positive run differential.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

There's a pile of randomness involved.

 

Here's something that might be more pertinent:

 

The AL East has 4 teams with positive run differential.

The AL West has 2 teams with positive run differential.

 

What really matters is the overall value of individuals:

 

NL Central has Bradley Jr. - 0.4 WAR

NL West has Mookie Betts 4.6 WAR

 

AL Central has Benintendi 2.2 WAR

AL West has Brock Holt 0.2 WAR

[Bellhorn04]

I should add, the AL East has the top net run differential of the 3 AL divisions.

 

Not surprisingly, the NL West the best in MLB.

[moonslav59]

There's a pile of randomness involved.

 

Here's something that might be more pertinent:

 

The AL East has 4 teams with positive run differential.

The AL West has 2 teams with positive run differential.

 

harmony will have us believe it's because they faced the NL West while we faced the NL East.

[Bellhorn04]

harmony will have us believe it's because they faced the NL West while we faced the NL East.

 

And there is some merit in that argument.

 

But you would need to parse a lot of numbers to show exactly how much merit.

[moonslav59]

So the Rays now sit in the WC1 slot due to the O's not being able to slug their way to just one win. (Win% not games ahead)

 

As of now, the Yanks are on the outside, looking in with SEA & OAK breathing down their necks.

 

We are tied with the Yanks in the loss column, but nothing about the way they are playing says they will win both of those "extra" games.

 

Here's the updated standings in the AL

 

89-54 Rays

83-59 Astros

82-61 White Sox

 

80-63 Jays Tied WC1

81 64 Red Sox Tied WC1

 

79-64 Yanks -1.0

77-66 A's -3.0

77-66 M's -3.0

[moonslav59]

And there is some merit in that argument.

 

But you would need to parse a lot of numbers to show exactly how much merit.

 

I know it matters. They did play tougher out of league games, but to me, playing 19 games vs 3 from the Yanks, Rays, Jays and Sox outweighs that comp.

 

The head to head division records have merit, too, but so does how well each division did vs the AL Central. Who is to say which value means more?

[harmony]

I know it matters. They did play tougher out of league games, but to me, playing 19 games vs 3 from the Yanks, Rays, Jays and Sox outweighs that comp.

 

The head to head division records have merit, too, but so does how well each division did vs the AL Central. Who is to say which value means more?

The AL East and AL West are nearly even in head-to-head competition with the AL West holding a 77-75 edge.

 

The AL East and the AL West are nearly even in their respective records against the AL Central, the AL East holding an 82-68 edge and the AL West holding an 81-69 edge.

 

The difference comes in interleague play where the AL East has a 55-34 record against the NL East while the AL West has a 45-52 record against the tougher NL West.

 

Overall records determine the Wild Card entrants so in a tight race the difference in interleague competition could be a deciding factor.

 

Or not. Just floating the idea for discussion.

 

Let's have an enjoyable week.

[Bellhorn04]

The AL East and AL West are nearly even in head-to-head competition with the AL West holding a 77-75 edge.

 

The AL East and the AL West are nearly even in their respective records against the AL Central, the AL East holding an 82-68 edge and the AL West holding an 81-69 edge.

 

The difference comes in interleague play where the AL East has a 55-34 record against the NL East while the AL West has a 45-52 record against the tougher NL West.

 

Overall records determine the Wild Card entrants so in a tight race the difference in interleague competition could be a deciding factor.

 

Or not. Just floating the idea for discussion.

 

Let's have an enjoyable week.

 

That's fair enough. The AL East and AL East are about equal in strength this year.

[moonslav59]

The AL East and AL West are nearly even in head-to-head competition with the AL West holding a 77-75 edge.

 

The AL East and the AL West are nearly even in their respective records against the AL Central, the AL East holding an 82-68 edge and the AL West holding an 81-69 edge.

 

The difference comes in interleague play where the AL East has a 55-34 record against the NL East while the AL West has a 45-52 record against the tougher NL West.

 

Overall records determine the Wild Card entrants so in a tight race the difference in interleague competition could be a deciding factor.

 

Or not. Just floating the idea for discussion.

 

Let's have an enjoyable week.

 

I can see how playing the NL West vs the NL East could make a game or two difference- or even more, but in all honesty, do you really think the AL West is equal or better than the AL East?

 

89-54 TBR (+177)

83-59 HOU (+178)

 

80-63 TOR (+167)

77-66 OAK (+61)

 

81-64 BOS (+52)

77-66 SEA (-57)

 

79-64 NYY (+27)

70-73 LAA (-72)

 

46-97 BAL (-257)

53-89 TEZ (-141)

 

Because your points made make it sound like you think the unbalanced schedule means more than I think it could.

 

Granted, TEX may be better than BAL. That's it. The rest are all worse, and the fact that we play 19 games vs 3 very tough teams and the ALW does not, is not outweighed by playing 5 or 6 games each vs mostly easier interleague teams.

 

BTW, the NLE likely had the best last place team in the NL (WSH).

[moonslav59]

that's fair enough. The al east and al east are about equal in strength this year.

 

tbr>hou

tor>oak

bos>sea

nyy>>laa

bal