A Realistic View at 2021: Part III

[Kimmi]

This may be jinxing the Sox, but who would fans rather face in one game: New York or Toronto? I'd love to see a one-and-done vs. the Yanks, who sport many of the same flaws as Boston. I actually favor the Red Sox in Fenway or the Stadium (but only if Cora starts Eovaldi in the Bronx). I also think the Blue Jays will crush anyone if they get to the Wild Card game.

 

I'm not assuming any of them get in; maybe it will be an A-M match-up...in the PM.

 

If I knew for sure that the Sox would beat the Yankees, then I'd rather face the Yankees. The idea of the Yankees beating us in that game, though, would be too heartbreaking. Therefore, I'd rather face the Jays.

 

With that being said, as Bell said, just get in.

[Kimmi]

There is never a log jam unless a team is winning 108 games and winning the World Series. We're not there yet.

 

These things always work themselves out. Not sure the logjam you're talking about but I'm assuming...

 

JD, Schwarber, Dalbec, Kike, Verdugo, Renfroe and Duran.

 

JD will be gone in one year if he does not opt out.

Schwarber can DH, play LF and 1B

Dalbec can play 1B and 3B

Kike can play 2B, who knows how often Arroyo will get hurt, he can relieve Xander also.

Verdugo and Renfroe may need time off....scheduled day off as Cora calls it.

I wouldn't trade a top 25 mlb prospect just yet....they've been patient with Dalbec, they will be patient with Duran.

 

You have 7 players for 5 positions...Cora loves the flexibility. Someone will slump, someone will be hurt.

 

I really like Schwarber and would like to have him back on the team next year. You are spot on in saying that Cora likes flexibility, and I am sure that he would be able to find enough playing time for all of the 'logjam' players.

 

The concern for me would be defense. As others have pointed out, playing Schwarber and/or JD in the field necessitates moving someone else out of their 'best' defensive position. As poor as our defense has been this season, I'm guessing that improving the defense will be a priority for Bloom and Cora next season. I'm not sure if keeping Schwarber is in the plans, unless he were going to primarily DH, which doesn't seem likely with JD still on the team.

[Kimmi]

Sale will now be out for at least 1 start due to COVID. There is no depth on the staff to handle this.

 

We handled not having Sale just fine for most of the season.

[Kimmi]

You liked that signing, except for the 4th year, correct?

 

I did. Unless I'm forgetting a move, I liked all of Dave's moves post 2017.

[Maxbialystock]

I really like Schwarber and would like to have him back on the team next year. You are spot on in saying that Cora likes flexibility, and I am sure that he would be able to find enough playing time for all of the 'logjam' players.

 

The concern for me would be defense. As others have pointed out, playing Schwarber and/or JD in the field necessitates moving someone else out of their 'best' defensive position. As poor as our defense has been this season, I'm guessing that improving the defense will be a priority for Bloom and Cora next season. I'm not sure if keeping Schwarber is in the plans, unless he were going to primarily DH, which doesn't seem likely with JD still on the team.

 

Meh. Label me the advocate for "hit first, defend later" crowd.

 

I do love great defense, however, because it is the poetry of baseball which is too often defined by the relentless, endless, prosaic confrontation between pitcher and hitter batter which composes 90% of every game. Most 4 hour games can be boiled down to 10-15 minutes of: final pitches of walks or K's, fair balls hit and ensuing defense/baserunning, balks, HBP's, etc.

 

That said, the big bats--herewith defined as Devers, JDM, Renfroe, Dalbec, Bogey, and Schwarber--are going to get into the lineup one way or another. I added Dalbec because of his 70 rbi's and .793 OPS and despite his negative DWAR, which I think is misleading. Kike and Verdugo will get in there because they can hit and field. Indeed, someone quoted Cora as saying Kike is the best fielding second baseman he's seen. Thus this lineup:

 

Kike, 2b, DWAR +1.7

Schwarber LF/DH/1b, DWAR -.3

Bogey SS, DWAR 0.0

Devers 3b, DWAR -.4

JDM DH/LF, DWAR -.9

Renfroe RF, DWAR -.2

Dalbec 1b, DWAR -1.3

Verdugo CF DWAR +.2

Vazquez C, DWAR +1.1

 

Duran, Arroyo, Plawecki, et al, play as needed.

[notin]

Meh. Label me the advocate for "hit first, defend later" crowd.

 

I do love great defense, however, because it is the poetry of baseball which is too often defined by the relentless, endless, prosaic confrontation between pitcher and hitter batter which composes 90% of every game. Most 4 hour games can be boiled down to 10-15 minutes of: final pitches of walks or K's, fair balls hit and ensuing defense/baserunning, balks, HBP's, etc.

 

That said, the big bats--herewith defined as Devers, JDM, Renfroe, Dalbec, Bogey, and Schwarber--are going to get into the lineup one way or another. I added Dalbec because of his 70 rbi's and .793 OPS and despite his negative DWAR, which I think is misleading. Kike and Verdugo will get in there because they can hit and field. Indeed, someone quoted Cora as saying Kike is the best fielding second baseman he's seen. Thus this lineup:

 

Kike, 2b, DWAR +1.7

Schwarber LF/DH/1b, DWAR -.3

Bogey SS, DWAR 0.0

Devers 3b, DWAR -.4

JDM DH/LF, DWAR -.9

Renfroe RF, DWAR -.2

Dalbec 1b, DWAR -1.3

Verdugo CF DWAR +.2

Vazquez C, DWAR +1.1

 

Duran, Arroyo, Plawecki, et al, play as needed.

 

 

I’m rapidly boarding the Dalbec Train. Dalbec has a career OPS of .823 in MLB. Casas has an OPS of .885 in AA.

 

It’s not time to trade Casas and dedicate 1b solely to Dalbec, but I think it buys Dalbec some time and keeps Casas in the minors a bit longer…

[Bellhorn04]

Verdugo has not started the last 3 games.

 

Which suggests to me that Cora is placing a higher priority on defense.

[moonslav59]

Meh. Label me the advocate for "hit first, defend later" crowd.

 

I do love great defense, however, because it is the poetry of baseball which is too often defined by the relentless, endless, prosaic confrontation between pitcher and hitter batter which composes 90% of every game. Most 4 hour games can be boiled down to 10-15 minutes of: final pitches of walks or K's, fair balls hit and ensuing defense/baserunning, balks, HBP's, etc.

 

That said, the big bats--herewith defined as Devers, JDM, Renfroe, Dalbec, Bogey, and Schwarber--are going to get into the lineup one way or another. I added Dalbec because of his 70 rbi's and .793 OPS and despite his negative DWAR, which I think is misleading. Kike and Verdugo will get in there because they can hit and field. Indeed, someone quoted Cora as saying Kike is the best fielding second baseman he's seen. Thus this lineup:

 

Kike, 2b, DWAR +1.7

Schwarber LF/DH/1b, DWAR -.3

Bogey SS, DWAR 0.0

Devers 3b, DWAR -.4

JDM DH/LF, DWAR -.9

Renfroe RF, DWAR -.2

Dalbec 1b, DWAR -1.3

Verdugo CF DWAR +.2

Vazquez C, DWAR +1.1

 

Duran, Arroyo, Plawecki, et al, play as needed.

 

Dalbec's defense has been horrific, and this is from one of his biggest supporters.

 

How is his dWAR misleading? If anything, I'd have expected it to be worse.

 

He also has a -7 DRS and -5.6 UZR/150 for a -11.0 fangraph's d rating.

 

Others:

-11.0 Dalbec 1B

-6.5 Renfroe RF

-3.3 Duran CF

-3.3 Verdugo LF

-2.6 Verdugo CF

 

DRS

-7 Dalbec

-7 Devers

-6 Bogey

-6 Verdugo CF

-6 Duran CF

-1 Kike 2B

 

+11 Kike CF

+8 Verdugo LF

+3 Arroyo 2B

+2 Renfroe RF

 

Of course hitting is very important, but it didn't work too well for decades. It wasn't until we seriously improved our pitching and defense, the rings started coming.

 

We don't need a 7 GG team, but being the worst at any high need area is something very hard to overcome in other areas.

 

Yes, those flashy lineups look nice. Who wouldn't want one like that?

 

I'm for improving our defense, while you seem to be for making it worse than worst.

 

Moving Kike from CF to 2B makes both positions worse. Schwarber over Verdugo in LF is a big decline on D.

 

I agree, there are no easy solutions to fixing our D, especially this year, but making it the worst it can be is not the direction I'd like to see us go.

 

I do think a game here and there could see the dream line-up you mentioned and I did, too, but moving Kike from CF, unless it's an emergency is not something I can support.

 

We're already trying to compensate for Bogey at SS, Dalbec at 1B and Devers at 3B, so why weaken 3 more positions just so Dalbec & Schwarber play everyday? The upgrade of Dalbec v RHP over Verdugo v RHPs, if it even is one, is just not worth it.

 

Verdugo is a nice plus in LF but a disaster in CF.

 

Arroyo can actually hit, too. He was hitting better than Dalbec, when he went down and still has a similar OPS.

[moonslav59]

Verdugo has not started the last 3 games.

 

Which suggests to me that Cora is placing a higher priority on defense.

 

By playing Santana in LF?

 

BTW, Verdugo started in LF, Tuesday and we had Thursday off. It's been 2 games of Santana in LF.

[Bellhorn04]

By playing Santana in LF?

 

BTW, Verdugo started in LF, Tuesday and we had Thursday off. It's been 2 games of Santana in LF.

 

Right you are.

 

Why do you think Verdugo didn't start last night? I was surprised to see him not start 2 games in a row, even against lefty starters.

[MADSTORK]

Do you even have a baseball team, STORK? Or do you just go around trolling fan sites to get yer jollies?

 

Scherzer 5 0 1 era 43IP 63K

Berrios 4 2 3.6 era 44IP 51K

 

Maybe if Orlando had some stones and traded a few minor league hall of famers for ML talent this Sox Team would be a front runner for another ring?

 

17 20 since the break. 20 of those losses the Sox bullpen blew 15 leads

Leading up to the Trade Deadline Boston had lost 12 of last 20 games where 8 losses were a direct result of the Pen.

 

Bloom knew the Pitching Roster needed help. Result, your struggling to make a Play in game. Steinbrenner would have fired his arse.

 

Right now Mis-management has cost this Team a legit chance to succeed.

 

Those are the Facts and the Facts are undisputed!

[moonslav59]

I’m rapidly boarding the Dalbec Train. Dalbec has a career OPS of .823 in MLB. Casas has an OPS of .885 in AA.

 

It’s not time to trade Casas and dedicate 1b solely to Dalbec, but I think it buys Dalbec some time and keeps Casas in the minors a bit longer…

 

Welcome aboard!

 

Opinions are often set by early numbers that create impressions hard to overcome. If you asked most fans if it's better to hit well in April and May or August and September, they'd choose the later, but in reality, a horrific start taints all further numbers- making it look like the kid sucked most of the year.

 

Here's some fun with Dalbec's numbers:

 

He was at .507 on May 6th and had several downturns after showing signs of life here and there, afterwards, but the May 7th to now sample size is rather large.

 

.879 OPS in 91 games and 307 PAs (20 HRs, 38 XBH and 64 RBI)

Double that, and we're looking at .266 40 128 in just 614 PAs!

 

When you look at his awesome 23 game/92 PA start in 2020, once can view his first 26 games and 92 PAs of 2021 as the outlier- not the "hot streaks."

 

That being said, he has been an extremely streaky hitter. Most hitters have some very nice streaks and bad slumps, but Bobby D takes it to the extreme. Here's his career chopped into incredible disparities:

 

2020:

.436 first 19 PAs

1.227 middle 52 PAs

.756 last 21 PAs

 

2021:

.374 first 28

1.041 in 29 PAs mid April

.175 in 35 PAs up to May 6th

1.103 in his next 41 PAs

.283 in next 40 PAs

.986 in next 59

.511 next 74

1.293 last 93 PAs

 

While many players have ups and downs, I'm not sure anyone tops this.

 

Here is a bigger chunk breakdown of his career:

 

.959 in 92 PAs in 2020

.507 first 92 of 2021

.860 next 118

.538 next 100

.872 last 89

 

Career (568 PAs)

.248 29 86 (.823 OPS)

 

Projected to 650 PAs

.248 35 102

[moonslav59]

Scherzer 5 0 1 era 43IP 63K

Berrios 4 2 3.6 era 44IP 51K

 

Maybe if Orlando had some stones and traded a few minor league hall of famers for ML talent this Sox Team would be a front runner for another ring?

 

17 20 since the break. 20 of those losses the Sox bullpen blew 15 leads

Leading up to the Trade Deadline Boston had lost 12 of last 20 games where 8 losses were a direct result of the Pen.

 

Bloom knew the Pitching Roster needed help. Result, your struggling to make a Play in game. Steinbrenner would have fired his arse.

 

Right now Mis-management has cost this Team a legit chance to succeed.

 

Those are the Facts and the Facts are undisputed!

 

Steinbrenner would never have stayed under the tax line 2 years in a row.

 

Blame Henry, if you have to attack someone.

 

BTW, having Scherzer would not even make us the AL front runner.

[moonslav59]

Right you are.

 

Why do you think Verdugo didn't start last night? I was surprised to see him not start 2 games in a row, even against lefty starters.

 

I have to think it's a minor injury. I can't see all the love shown to Santana. I thought he'd be DFA'd a dozen times, already.

[Bellhorn04]

Scherzer 5 0 1 era 43IP 63K

Berrios 4 2 3.6 era 44IP 51K

 

Maybe if Orlando had some stones and traded a few minor league hall of famers for ML talent this Sox Team would be a front runner for another ring?

 

17 20 since the break. 20 of those losses the Sox bullpen blew 15 leads

Leading up to the Trade Deadline Boston had lost 12 of last 20 games where 8 losses were a direct result of the Pen.

 

Bloom knew the Pitching Roster needed help. Result, your struggling to make a Play in game. Steinbrenner would have fired his arse.

 

Right now Mis-management has cost this Team a legit chance to succeed.

 

Those are the Facts and the Facts are undisputed!

 

Again you dodge the question. You're a coward and a troll.

[oldtimer]

This will be an opportunity to see Seabold pitch against a good hitting ML club. Whether he does very well or he flops this time is not the main question, although we want to win so hope he does well. I want to see what he has in his arsenal. Velocity, movement, command, variety of pitches. He may be able to capture the 5th starter role next year so any chance to see him in 2021 is a plus.

[notin]

Verdugo has not started the last 3 games.

 

Which suggests to me that Cora is placing a higher priority on defense.

 

 

It suggests to me that the last two games were against a LHP to start.

 

He did not start Tuesday against Rasmussen, which he shouldn’t have after his awful Monday. But Wednesday and Friday were against McClanahan and Rodon, both southpaws…

[moonslav59]

It suggests to me that the last two games were against a LHP to start.

 

He did not start Tuesday against Rasmussen, which he shouldn’t have after his awful Monday. But Wednesday and Friday were against McClanahan and Rodon, both southpaws…

 

He started every day from Sept 3-7th, and the7th was TUESDAY.

 

I think he started every Sox game from August 13th to Sept 7th, then finished the next two.

 

We may be reading too much into this.

 

[Bellhorn04]

It suggests to me that the last two games were against a LHP to start.

 

He did not start Tuesday against Rasmussen, which he shouldn’t have after his awful Monday. But Wednesday and Friday were against McClanahan and Rodon, both southpaws…

 

I didn't realize until looking it up how bad his splits are this year. 935-526. Yikes.

[Maxbialystock]

Dalbec's defense has been horrific, and this is from one of his biggest supporters.

 

How is his dWAR misleading? If anything, I'd have expected it to be worse.

 

He also has a -7 DRS and -5.6 UZR/150 for a -11.0 fangraph's d rating.

 

Others:

-11.0 Dalbec 1B

-6.5 Renfroe RF

-3.3 Duran CF

-3.3 Verdugo LF

-2.6 Verdugo CF

 

DRS

-7 Dalbec

-7 Devers

-6 Bogey

-6 Verdugo CF

-6 Duran CF

-1 Kike 2B

 

+11 Kike CF

+8 Verdugo LF

+3 Arroyo 2B

+2 Renfroe RF

 

Of course hitting is very important, but it didn't work too well for decades. It wasn't until we seriously improved our pitching and defense, the rings started coming.

 

We don't need a 7 GG team, but being the worst at any high need area is something very hard to overcome in other areas.

 

Yes, those flashy lineups look nice. Who wouldn't want one like that?

 

I'm for improving our defense, while you seem to be for making it worse than worst.

 

Moving Kike from CF to 2B makes both positions worse. Schwarber over Verdugo in LF is a big decline on D.

 

I agree, there are no easy solutions to fixing our D, especially this year, but making it the worst it can be is not the direction I'd like to see us go.

 

I do think a game here and there could see the dream line-up you mentioned and I did, too, but moving Kike from CF, unless it's an emergency is not something I can support.

 

We're already trying to compensate for Bogey at SS, Dalbec at 1B and Devers at 3B, so why weaken 3 more positions just so Dalbec & Schwarber play everyday? The upgrade of Dalbec v RHP over Verdugo v RHPs, if it even is one, is just not worth it.

 

Verdugo is a nice plus in LF but a disaster in CF.

 

Arroyo can actually hit, too. He was hitting better than Dalbec, when he went down and still has a similar OPS.

 

Well, we'll see "my" lineup tonight, 9 of 9 if not in the same order. I disagree about Dalbec because he has been hitting well in both August and September and because his defense at 1b has improved, which was inevitable. 1b is not hard even though it's much too hard for Arroyo, the same guy who has played all of 53 games this season. Thus Kike at 2b because, unlike Iglesias, he doesn't have bad hands and can hit. Verdugo in CF, I agree, is a step down, but he still has a decent bat. Same for Renfroe in RF, Schwarber in LF, JDM at DH, Devers at 3b, and Bogey at SS.

 

Too late to fix the defense this year. I thought Iglesias would help but he cost last night's game with a terrible play on an easy grounder. Plus 2-3 games ago he cost a GIDP by fumbling the throw to 2b.

[Maxbialystock]

This will be an opportunity to see Seabold pitch against a good hitting ML club. Whether he does very well or he flops this time is not the main question, although we want to win so hope he does well. I want to see what he has in his arsenal. Velocity, movement, command, variety of pitches. He may be able to capture the 5th starter role next year so any chance to see him in 2021 is a plus.

 

Agree on all, but especially on what you look for in a starter--four excellent nouns. Those should be applied when evaluating all starters.

[Maxbialystock]

I didn't realize until looking it up how bad his splits are this year. 935-526. Yikes.

 

Stunning. Huge swing.

[moonslav59]

Iggy is not the ole Iggy, and the old Iggy was known to boot some easy plays, too and make many more spectacular one.

 

I'm not sure he makes many dazzling plays, anymore.

[moonslav59]

Stunning. Huge swing.

 

Yes, a massive split.

 

His past years saw ...

 

vs R/v L

 

2020

.876 (139 PAs)/.791 (82)

 

2019

.807 (268)/.843 (109)

 

2018

.748 (67)/ .556 (19)

 

2017-2020:

.810 v RHPs (494 PAs)

.788 v LHPs (215)

 

The OF guy I expected to have big splits was Renfroe.

 

2017-2020:

.704 v R (485) .733 Career

.907 v L (1068) .913 Career

 

2021:

.789 v R

.912 v L

 

He's done fine v Righties.

[moonslav59]

Well, the A's lost, and we won but lost a half to the Jays.

 

The Jays are tied with the Yanks for the second slot.

 

89-53 TBR

82-59 HOU

81-61 CWS

 

81-63 BOS WC1 +1

 

79-63 NYY WC2 tied

79-63 TOR WC2 tied

 

77-65 OAK -2 WC2

77-65 SEA -2 WC2

[moonslav59]

The Jays were lucky to win game 1, and the Yanks won on an error by Baez.

 

We had some luck, too, so there's that.

 

Big game, tomorrow.

[Larry Cook]

Seattle lost to arizona today.

[oldtimer]

I was unable to watch the game last night. It appeared to be a thriller. Did anyone get to watch it? I was especially interested in how Seabold looked. Another bad error by Rafie but also some good defense by others.

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

I was unable to watch the game last night. It appeared to be a thriller. Did anyone get to watch it? I was especially interested in how Seabold looked. Another bad error by Rafie but also some good defense by others.

 

 

I was unimpressed with Seabold's 91 MPH heater.

[Nick]

I was unimpressed with Seabold's 91 MPH heater.

 

His best pitch is changeup. Probably shouldn't have thrown it back to back.