A Realistic View at 2021: Part III

[MADSTORK]

STORK is a low-level troll. Don't let him hurt your brain, put him on Ignore like I did.

 

You got all figured out in your pink hat world don't you?

 

Betts left because of payroll mis-management. A homegrown talent who should have been signed at any relative cost. But guys like you will defend the institution and then complain why Mookie left!

Get a grip or are you really a Yankee Troll in disguise?

[a700hitter]

You got all figured out in your pink hat world don't you?

 

Betts left because of payroll mis-management. A homegrown talent who should have been signed at any relative cost. But guys like you will defend the institution and then complain why Mookie left!

Get a grip or are you really a Yankee Troll in disguise?

Betts is a generational talent in addition to being homegrown.

[MADSTORK]

Your post would be 100% spot on if we were talking about an unreasonable amount of money. We are not.

 

It all adds up to a point where it handcuffs the organization to make a good contractual decision. Thats all Im saying

[MADSTORK]

Betts is a generational talent in addition to being homegrown.

 

Yes he was and don't you agree the Player should still be playing here?

[mvp 78]

And on college he was a teammate of former Sox stud 1b Sam Travis…

 

He's like a baby Joey Votto!

[mvp 78]

Also with Boston, Schwarber has 12 walks in 42 PA

 

For some perspective, Dalbec has 18 walks in 352 PA…

 

If it's Schwarber vs Dalbec, it's Schwarber. Dalbec just isn't in the conversation yet. We like the power, but the rest of his game leaves something to be desired. Schwarber is hitting 2nd. Dalbec hits 8th or 9th and doesn't play defense very well.

[mvp 78]

Cheaper Yes, but there is no consistency in Schwarber's career to dictate that kind of money. Especially when you let a Player like Betts walk or in this case Traded. You take the 15 million wait until a Betts type player becomes available or you allocate that money to Devers, XB who are the next Betts type contracts to come up.

 

Do you really want to lose XB and Devers because your again cap strapped by handing out 15 or even say 10 million to a player who does not have a career of consistency under his belt?

 

Stash the Cash, go and sign an AJ Pollack next year at a fraction of the cost to bridge the gap until a better player comes along

 

They aren't going to stay under forever. Bloom has said as much. I think they could give Schwarber a shorter deal than 6 years. Maybe 4/60? That doesn't wreck the payroll.

[notin]

He's like a baby Joey Votto!

 

And he hit about a well as Votto did as a baby…

[moonslav59]

Here's how I see it:

 

The JD choice will set in motion a lot of what we can and will do.

 

There are somethings we must do, no matter what he chooses, but the amount of money available would change depending on his $19.4M salary ($22M on lux tax) vs zero.

 

We need a solid SP'er- hopefully a #1 or #2.

 

We need a closer.

 

We need starting pitcher depth and/or pen depth, depending on our plans for Whitlock & Houck.

 

JD or not, we need another solid player that can play 1B, perhaps just vs RHP.

 

No JD? We need a DH.

 

That is a lot of needs that would be super expensive, if we filled them all by free agency. Here is where it gets tricky: we can either trade youth to fill a slot or two or count on filling one, maybe two, of these roles from within the system.

 

I'm thinking Bloom & Co would love the second option to work, and they could hedge their best by signing some depth to "cover," in case an in system player fails... kinda like what Marwin and Santana were, this year- YUCK!

 

Who are the most likely in system players to fill a key role?

 

Dalbec has to be near the top of that list, even if just as a platoon 1Bman that can lessen the cost of needing a FT 1Bman.

 

Houck and Whitlock look like the obvious choices to fill a SP'er slot or two or a SP'er and pen slot. Do we want to pencil one in as that solid #1 or #2 SP'er and the other as our 2022 closer? Maybe one, but both? (And I say maybe one with a lot of doubts.) I'd rather see Houck and Whitlock fill the #4 slot in the rotation and Ottavino's set-up slot. If they do better, then yeah for us!

 

Duran does not really fill an area of need, assuming our OF is Verdugo, Kike and Renfroe, with Arroyo as our FT or near FT 2Bman. We'd need a 4th OF'er, and since Kike can play 2B when Arroyo is out or covering SS/3B or sitting as part of a Dalbec-Arroyo type platoon. We might decide to trade Duran. (I'm not for that idea- just sayin'.)

 

So, IMO, we get a #1 or #2 SP and a closer, use Whitlock and Houck to fill the rest of our pitching high need areas and then decide on what to do about 1B/DH. Dalbec can fill a partial role and maybe improve enough to fill a FT need, but I do like the idea of keeping Schwarber- JD or not.

 

[notin]

Houck is 25 years old and so far has thrown 52 IP in 11 starts. While I wouldn’t call him a bust as a starter (which would be tough to do given his success), maybe it’s time to acknowledge that 160 innings per season just isn’t in his future. Again, he’s not some 22yo who played in Division 1 last year and needs to get acclimated to a 6 month MLB marathon. He’s already 25.

 

Make him a reliever. Good relievers are needed anyway; not just closers…

[mvp 78]

Houck is 25 years old and so far has thrown 52 IP in 11 starts. While I wouldn’t call him a bust as a starter (which would be tough to do given his success), maybe it’s time to acknowledge that 160 innings per season just isn’t in his future. Again, he’s not some 22yo who played in Division 1 last year and needs to get acclimated to a 6 month MLB marathon. He’s already 25.

 

Make him a reliever. Good relievers are needed anyway; not just closers…

 

If he develops a third pitch as a reliever, you can try to move him back to the rotation. I think he has a very high ceiling as a reliever and that's not a knock on him. It's a different skillset.

[notin]

If he develops a third pitch as a reliever, you can try to move him back to the rotation. I think he has a very high ceiling as a reliever and that's not a knock on him. It's a different skillset.

 

Houck in the pen with Whitlock, along with Barnes, Taylor, Hernandez, Davis, Sawamura, etc.

 

Get two starters. Jarren Duran might be adequate trade bait to land a good one. Miami seems like a good fit given their over abundance of controllable quality starters and annual need to find a decent CF…

[mvp 78]

Houck in the pen with Whitlock, along with Barnes, Taylor, Hernandez, Davis, Sawamura, etc.

 

Get two starters. Jarren Duran might be adequate trade bait to land a good one. Miami seems like a good fit given their over abundance of controllable quality starters and annual need to find a decent CF…

 

If we went by BTV, you could get quite a haul from MIA for Duran. I'd trade Duran for 2 pitchers.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If we went by BTV, you could get quite a haul from MIA for Duran. I'd trade Duran for 2 pitchers.

 

Well, ok. But only because in a few years Miguel Bleis will still be younger than Marcelo Mayer.

[moonslav59]

How Sox starters rank in fWAR:

 

5. Eovaldi 4.4

26. ERod 2.9

65. Pivetta 1.7

121. Perez 0.5

128. Richards 0.4

(163 Starting Pitchers with 50 + IP)

 

Pen

15. Whitlock 1.4

20. Barnes 1.3

25. Ottavino 1.1

44. Taylor 0.8

166. D Hern -0.1

171. Andriese -0.1

175. Valdez -0.1

197. Sawamura -0.4

200. Robles -0.5

(207 pitchers with 30+ IP)

 

Everyday Players:

12. Bogey 4.6

14. Devers 4.4

32. Kike 3.6

79. Schwarber 2.3

82. Verdugo 2.3

87. Martinez 2.2

120. Renfroe 1.7

169. Arroyo 1.2 (just 53 games)

251. Vaz 0.5

278. Plawecki 0.3 (49 games)

329. Dalbec 0.0

390. Santana -0.4

405. Marwin -0.6

415. Cordero -0.7

(430 players with 100+ PAs)

 

 

Edited August 27, 2021 by moonslav59

[oldtimer]

If it's Schwarber vs Dalbec, it's Schwarber. Dalbec just isn't in the conversation yet. We like the power, but the rest of his game leaves something to be desired. Schwarber is hitting 2nd. Dalbec hits 8th or 9th and doesn't play defense very well.

 

I've come to appreciate Schwaber as I watch his AB's and heads up field play for the Sox. Yes he is big and slow, which limits his field positions to LF, possibly 1st base and DH. He will only turn 29 during ST next season, so he is in his prime. He is the epitome of a patient hitter. Due to his power, opponents pitch him very carefully. He is well aware of that and due to his discipline and his pitch recognition ability you rarely see him striking out and you often see long ABs which much frustrate the opposing pitchers. In the last 15 games he has 10 BBs and 4 strikeouts which is great. If he does get two strikes, his mechanics allow him to foul off anything close while he takes obvious balls. Only swinging at strikes is what Cora preaches and this guy is the king of that idea.

 

He should be a great example to all hitters on the team and especially young lefties who get to watch what he does. Devers is a very dangerous hitter in his own right but does chase a lot and because he has unique hand eye coordination and very good power, he can hit balls out of the zone. He does have a lot of strike-outs this year (111) and a fair amount of walks (51). Kind of reminds me of Adrian Beltre in the way he can get to balls outside the zone. Imagine if he could lay off pitches outside the zone at a higher rate.

 

Verdugo is also a young lefty with a good hit tool. He has altered his swing to add more loft and he can do damage. He also expands the zone both on high fastballs and outside pitches. Just improving in those areas would help his offense.

 

Duran is also a young lefty hitter who needs to improve his pitch recognition and plate discipline. I have heard extensive criticism on this site that I believe is short sited. He has cut down on his strikeouts during the last period and is working to get better although doesn't get into enough games to develop consistently. I hope to see him as a part of the Sox team going forward.

 

Let's hope we keep Schwaber and that his example will be a help to all our hitters.

[moonslav59]

I've come to appreciate Schwaber as I watch his AB's and heads up field play for the Sox. Yes he is big and slow, which limits his field positions to LF, possibly 1st base and DH. He will only turn 29 during ST next season, so he is in his prime. He is the epitome of a patient hitter. Due to his power, opponents pitch him very carefully. He is well aware of that and due to his discipline and his pitch recognition ability you rarely see him striking out and you often see long ABs which much frustrate the opposing pitchers. In the last 15 games he has 10 BBs and 4 strikeouts which is great. If he does get two strikes, his mechanics allow him to foul off anything close while he takes obvious balls. Only swinging at strikes is what Cora preaches and this guy is the king of that idea.

 

He should be a great example to all hitters on the team and especially young lefties who get to watch what he does. Devers is a very dangerous hitter in his own right but does chase a lot and because he has unique hand eye coordination and very good power, he can hit balls out of the zone. He does have a lot of strike-outs this year (111) and a fair amount of walks (51). Kind of reminds me of Adrian Beltre in the way he can get to balls outside the zone. Imagine if he could lay off pitches outside the zone at a higher rate.

 

Verdugo is also a young lefty with a good hit tool. He has altered his swing to add more loft and he can do damage. He also expands the zone both on high fastballs and outside pitches. Just improving in those areas would help his offense.

 

Duran is also a young lefty hitter who needs to improve his pitch recognition and plate discipline. I have heard extensive criticism on this site that I believe is short sited. He has cut down on his strikeouts during the last period and is working to get better although doesn't get into enough games to develop consistently. I hope to see him as a part of the Sox team going forward.

 

Let's hope we keep Schwaber and that his example will be a help to all our hitters.

 

I think many posters were just preaching caution on Duran or thinking we should trust Sox management on when Duran was ready. It wasn't meant to be a put-down on him.

 

Yes, some were critical, but most of us looked forward to his call-up and were confident he'd do well (eventually).

 

I have not lost any confidence in him over this tiny sample size.

[mvp 78]

Kiké got a positive test.

[moonslav59]

Kiké got a positive test.

 

God, no!

[mvp 78]

God, no!

 

Yes

[oldtimer]

Here's how I see it:

 

The JD choice will set in motion a lot of what we can and will do.

 

There are somethings we must do, no matter what he chooses, but the amount of money available would change depending on his $19.4M salary ($22M on lux tax) vs zero.

 

We need a solid SP'er- hopefully a #1 or #2.

 

We need a closer.

 

We need starting pitcher depth and/or pen depth, depending on our plans for Whitlock & Houck.

 

JD or not, we need another solid player that can play 1B, perhaps just vs RHP.

 

No JD? We need a DH.

 

That is a lot of needs that would be super expensive, if we filled them all by free agency. Here is where it gets tricky: we can either trade youth to fill a slot or two or count on filling one, maybe two, of these roles from within the system.

 

I'm thinking Bloom & Co would love the second option to work, and they could hedge their best by signing some depth to "cover," in case an in system player fails... kinda like what Marwin and Santana were, this year- YUCK!

 

Who are the most likely in system players to fill a key role?

 

Dalbec has to be near the top of that list, even if just as a platoon 1Bman that can lessen the cost of needing a FT 1Bman.

 

Houck and Whitlock look like the obvious choices to fill a SP'er slot or two or a SP'er and pen slot. Do we want to pencil one in as that solid #1 or #2 SP'er and the other as our 2022 closer? Maybe one, but both? (And I say maybe one with a lot of doubts.) I'd rather see Houck and Whitlock fill the #4 slot in the rotation and Ottavino's set-up slot. If they do better, then yeah for us!

 

Duran does not really fill an area of need, assuming our OF is Verdugo, Kike and Renfroe, with Arroyo as our FT or near FT 2Bman. We'd need a 4th OF'er, and since Kike can play 2B when Arroyo is out or covering SS/3B or sitting as part of a Dalbec-Arroyo type platoon. We might decide to trade Duran. (I'm not for that idea- just sayin'.)

 

So, IMO, we get a #1 or #2 SP and a closer, use Whitlock and Houck to fill the rest of our pitching high need areas and then decide on what to do about 1B/DH. Dalbec can fill a partial role and maybe improve enough to fill a FT need, but I do like the idea of keeping Schwarber- JD or not.

 

 

Again, I think this belongs in the 2022 discussions.

 

Yes, the JDM decision is important for us. Yes, $19.4 million for a one dimensional player is a lot and he is 35. Is he washed up based on his extended slump since the AS break on top of his miserable 2020? I don't think so but I also don't think he is worth the money. We would be better off signing Schwaber for up to a 5 year contract while not attempting to extend JDM. This is an example of the hard decisions the front office faces. Could we wind up with both for a year? It looks possible and would handicap us and limit us in the FA market and also it might be difficult to play them both together, as it is now.

 

Yes, we could use 2 solid starters while cutting loose or reassigning 3 of our current starters. I can see Eovaldi, Sale and Pivetta on the staff with one of Whitlock, Houck or possibly Seabold brought in to fill one of the open position. For the other, I would compare E-Rod with what we could get on the FA market and take the best of that choice. I would think of reassigning Richards to a short term long reliever/fill-in starter role, if that was possible financially.

 

Very few have recommended getting rid of Dalbec but instead, finding a part time left handed bat to take a lot of the AB's against right handed pitching. The question of when Casas will become ready complicates that decision. We had that guy and let him go presumably due to his expense ($6 mil) but then filled in with a number of lower cost players, none of whom worked out.

 

We also need a closer. It's interesting to see how many closers are now having serious problems getting the job done. I would think we should look to the up and comers in our own system for BP help but the closer to supplement Barnes might have to come from outside, probably an intermediate priced FA.

 

As far as our outfield is concerned, we do need a 4th and Duran is that obvious low cost player who fills that need and should be able to improve given a reasonable amount of PT. Jiminez is a possibility but is much further away and has recently regressed.

 

So I see no wholesale changes in the team but more of a transition from what we have this year to one with less holes and more home grown talent, particularly in the pitching department.

[moonslav59]

Again, I think this belongs in the 2022 discussions.

 

Yes, the JDM decision is important for us. Yes, $19.4 million for a one dimensional player is a lot and he is 35. Is he washed up based on his extended slump since the AS break on top of his miserable 2020? I don't think so but I also don't think he is worth the money. We would be better off signing Schwaber for up to a 5 year contract while not attempting to extend JDM. This is an example of the hard decisions the front office faces. Could we wind up with both for a year? It looks possible and would handicap us and limit us in the FA market and also it might be difficult to play them both together, as it is now.

 

Yes, we could use 2 solid starters while cutting loose or reassigning 3 of our current starters. I can see Eovaldi, Sale and Pivetta on the staff with one of Whitlock, Houck or possibly Seabold brought in to fill one of the open position. For the other, I would compare E-Rod with what we could get on the FA market and take the best of that choice. I would think of reassigning Richards to a short term long reliever/fill-in starter role, if that was possible financially.

 

Very few have recommended getting rid of Dalbec but instead, finding a part time left handed bat to take a lot of the AB's against right handed pitching. The question of when Casas will become ready complicates that decision. We had that guy and let him go presumably due to his expense ($6 mil) but then filled in with a number of lower cost players, none of whom worked out.

 

We also need a closer. It's interesting to see how many closers are now having serious problems getting the job done. I would think we should look to the up and comers in our own system for BP help but the closer to supplement Barnes might have to come from outside, probably an intermediate priced FA.

 

As far as our outfield is concerned, we do need a 4th and Duran is that obvious low cost player who fills that need and should be able to improve given a reasonable amount of PT. Jiminez is a possibility but is much further away and has recently regressed.

 

So I see no wholesale changes in the team but more of a transition from what we have this year to one with less holes and more home grown talent, particularly in the pitching department.

 

I think people are being harsh on JD and his slump.

 

Of course, we'd all love to see the .950+ JD, again, but he's really been very consistently around .800 from May until just very recently.

 

It's not fair to imply his slump has been since the allstar break. He was at .877 from the break to August 15th (29 games and 123 PAs).

 

His slump is 9 games lone.

 

.305 last 9 games, which brings his post all star numbers to .742.

 

I'll take that .877, again, and my guess is, we'll see it soon.

 

From June 29 to today he's at .801. It's all about when you choose the time frame.

 

When you have a 1.189 OPS on May 1st, it's hard to keep it from declining, and as people watch it decline, they assume you are "slumping." While .770 is viewed as a slump for JD, and that is disappointing to me, it's not really bad. (14 HRs and 53 RBI in 93 games.

 

Some perspective: the guy hit .819 from May 2nd until 9 days ago, and saw his OPS fall 285 points! (from 1.189 to .904.)

 

Yes, his OPS was .904 a little over a week ago.

 

I'm not saying I'm all aboard the extend JD bandwagon; I'm not. I'm just saying, let's cut the guy some slack.

 

 

 

[notin]

I think people are being harsh on JD and his slump.

 

Of course, we'd all love to see the .950+ JD, again, but he's really been very consistently around .800 from May until just very recently.

 

It's not fair to imply his slump has been since the allstar break. He was at .877 from the break to August 15th (29 games and 123 PAs).

 

His slump is 9 games lone.

 

.305 last 9 games, which brings his post all star numbers to .742.

 

I'll take that .877, again, and my guess is, we'll see it soon.

 

From June 29 to today he's at .801. It's all about when you choose the time frame.

 

When you have a 1.189 OPS on May 1st, it's hard to keep it from declining, and as people watch it decline, they assume you are "slumping." While .770 is viewed as a slump for JD, and that is disappointing to me, it's not really bad. (14 HRs and 53 RBI in 93 games.

 

Some perspective: the guy hit .819 from May 2nd until 9 days ago, and saw his OPS fall 285 points! (from 1.189 to .904.)

 

Yes, his OPS was .904 a little over a week ago.

 

I'm not saying I'm all aboard the extend JD bandwagon; I'm not. I'm just saying, let's cut the guy some slack.

 

 

 

 

It’s sort of like what Sir Edmund Hilary said when he reached the summit of Mount Everest. “It’s all downhill from here.”

[Nick]

Arroyo can't catch a break this season.

[iortiz]

Can't just put JD on the bench.

 

Right now, he is dead cold. Give him 3 days off and see. He is hurting this team.

[iortiz]

The guy has a 10 day slump, and we're talking benching him?

 

Geesh!

 

Yup, coming games are crucial. Put in who is hot.

 

Give him 3 days off or something.

[moonslav59]

A 9 game slump warrants a 3 day benching?

 

Not even Dalbec got that. Marwin never got that.

 

Let's do it to the consummate vet.

 

Man, you guys are brutal!

Edited August 27, 2021 by moonslav59

[iortiz]

A 9 game slump warrants a 3 day benching?

 

Not even Dalbec got that. Marwin never got that.

 

Let's do it to the consummate vet.

 

Man, youguys are brutal!

 

Well, then let him keep hurting the team hitting in the top of the lup.

 

September is around the corner bud.

[iortiz]

Moving forward Cora needs to take drastic/unpopular/out-of-the-book decisions in order to win most of games as possible. September will be a dogfight.

[moonslav59]

Well, then let him keep hurting the team hitting in the top of the lup.

 

September is around the corner bud.

 

Why do you continuously think players always repeat what they have done in their most recent small sample size?

 

Had Cora only played the hot hands, Dalbec would never have gotten a chance to show he was the next hot hand.

 

Renfroe sucked for all of April, but Cora stuck with him.

 

Devers has had some very bad slumps, then, suddenly, BAM!

 

You don't bench a proven vet over as silly 9 game sample size.

 

Could he use a day off? Maybe- maybe not. Maybe today would be the day he starts his next hot streak.

 

I'd rather see Bogey rest his wrist a few days, but no way would I sit either one for 3 days.

 

BTW, right before JD's horrific 9 game slump, he hit 1.394 in 6 games.

 

Why choose 9 games? Because that's the worst?

 

Go back 16 games and he has 11 RBI, which comes to 110 per 160. (See, I can cherry-pick, too.)