A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[iortiz]

Does anybody know when is Arroyo going to come back?

[moonslav59]

Does anybody know when is Arroyo going to come back?

 

I'm not sure anything has been officially announced, but I think it might be a few more weeks, at least. Same with Marwin.

[moonslav59]

I think there is room for all three to play reasonable minutes. With Duran sitting against lefties and Cora's propensity to rest players like Bogie, Renfroe and Verdugo. Kike can be used as an outfield sub and Arroyo as an infield sub. I still think the Sox are looking for a first baseman but I wouldn't think Rizzo fits.

 

I agree. There is room for everyone to play enough.

 

I want everyone to play, except maybe Dalbec, but the only drawback is Kike not playing in the OF enough. The guys is playing extremely well in CF.

 

On a team with very questionable defense, having great CF and RF defense is a big help, especially in Fenway.

[iortiz]

I'm not sure anything has been officially announced, but I think it might be a few more weeks, at least. Same with Marwin.

 

Weeks? Geez I thought it was a minor thing. He has already spent a couple in the IL, hasn’t he?

[moonslav59]

Weeks? Geez I thought it was a minor thing. He has already spent a couple in the IL, hasn’t he?

 

Hammies are tough. This was apparently a bad one.

[Nick]

Rays' Wander Franco, #1 prospect in mlb, is supporting .642 OPS after 101 at bats.

 

It's not an easy game.

[moonslav59]

Rays' Wander Franco, #1 prospect in mlb, is supporting .642 OPS after 101 at bats.

 

It's not an easy game.

 

They called him up too early!!!

 

(sarcasm alert)

 

[Nick]

Moon, what would you be willing to give up for rental Scherzer?

 

Would we be a sure thing to win the Division with him and return of Sale?

 

I'm willing to part with Downs, Groome, and Chavis and other fringe young players.

 

As I've discussed previously, I'm no longer concerned about going over the first luxury tax threshold. At most it's $8.5M penalty on $230M payroll.

Edited July 28, 2021 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Moon, what would you be willing to give up for rental Scherzer?

 

Would we be a sure thing to win the Division with him and return of Sale?

 

I'm willing to part with Downs, Groome, and Chavis and other fringe young players.

 

As I've discussed previously, I'm no longer concerned about going over the first luxury tax threshold. At most it's $8.5M penalty on $230M payroll.

 

I'm a freak. I would not go over the tax line for Scherzer.

 

If Bloom & Co are going to go over, he'd be a great get, despite being a rental.

 

I do NOT think now is the time to go big.

 

I like Downs. I wouldn't trade anyone as high as him or even some lower than him for a rental.

 

That's just me. I'm more about the long term and maybe I'm too obsessed with budget lines.

[oldtimer]

I'm a freak. I would not go over the tax line for Scherzer.

 

If Bloom & Co are going to go over, he'd be a great get, despite being a rental.

 

I do NOT think now is the time to go big.

 

I like Downs. I wouldn't trade anyone as high as him or even some lower than him for a rental.

That's just me. I'm more about the long term and maybe I'm too obsessed with budget lines.

We have talked about the team needs being at most a first baseman and either a starter or a reliever, whichever we can trade for that makes the most sense. To accommodate a quality pitcher, it would then make sense to trade at least one of our current pitchers. I don't like the idea of a few months rental and I don't believe Bloom does either. We will know in less than 3 days.

[sk7326]

I'm a freak. I would not go over the tax line for Scherzer.

 

If Bloom & Co are going to go over, he'd be a great get, despite being a rental.

 

I do NOT think now is the time to go big.

 

I like Downs. I wouldn't trade anyone as high as him or even some lower than him for a rental.

 

That's just me. I'm more about the long term and maybe I'm too obsessed with budget lines.

 

Long term matters for sure. That said, every chance for a pennant is special - and these dudes and Cora deserve the front office giving them the best opportunity to do so.

[moonslav59]

Long term matters for sure. That said, every chance for a pennant is special - and these dudes and Cora deserve the front office giving them the best opportunity to do so.

 

I'm pretty sure Cora is on board for long term.

 

We will make a move or two to give us a better chance. No move will hurt our long term, IMO. Anybody we trade will be someone not in our long term plans.

 

Maybe that just what I hope, but My gut tells me Bloom and Cora agree.

[moonslav59]

We have talked about the team needs being at most a first baseman and either a starter or a reliever, whichever we can trade for that makes the most sense. To accommodate a quality pitcher, it would then make sense to trade at least one of our current pitchers. I don't like the idea of a few months rental and I don't believe Bloom does either. We will know in less than 3 days.

 

100%

[Nick]

We have talked about the team needs being at most a first baseman and either a starter or a reliever, whichever we can trade for that makes the most sense. To accommodate a quality pitcher, it would then make sense to trade at least one of our current pitchers. I don't like the idea of a few months rental and I don't believe Bloom does either. We will know in less than 3 days.

 

Should we look at our opportunity in historical context? Winning the world series is uncommon occurrence. Sox have won 4 out of last 20.

 

Our starting pitching even with Sale's impending return seems too soft after Sale and Eovaldi against 9 other playoff bound teams.

 

Do we improve our odds of winning it all by adding a top of the line starting pitcher? Scherzer, Sale, Eovaldi and E Rod sounds pretty good.

 

Our starting pitching in 2022 will have Sale, Eovaldi, Pivetta along with Houck and Whitlock. Losing Perez, Eovaldi and Richards releases $22M or so in payroll. Enough money there to add a starter and a reliever to replace Ottavino. Maybe that starter is E Rod.

 

Our bullpen will have Barnes, Sawamura, Darwinzon, Taylor, Brasier, good base to build the bullpen in 2022.

 

Our offense will return pretty much in tact in 2022 unless JD opts out.

 

It's not as though we're emptying out our farm.

 

Despite lack of production from 1B, we're getting plenty of offense.

 

Don't we owe Devers, Xander, JD, Kike, Verdugo, Renfroe and Vaz a chance at the ring?

 

For me, emergence of Arroyo has solved our problem at 2B. He's under team control for another 3 years. I think we'll sweeten Xander's contract to keep him in Boston. We're not getting rid of Devers.

 

Looks to me like Downs is blocked.

 

Groome is finally pitching again and now has some trade value. He ranks behind other starter possibilities, Mata, Bello, Seabold.

 

Is a rental a good idea when there's no long term contractual obligation attached to it?

Edited July 28, 2021 by Nick

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

I'm a freak. I would not go over the tax line for Scherzer.

 

If Bloom & Co are going to go over, he'd be a great get, despite being a rental.

 

I do NOT think now is the time to go big.

 

I like Downs. I wouldn't trade anyone as high as him or even some lower than him for a rental.

 

That's just me. I'm more about the long term and maybe I'm too obsessed with budget lines.

 

When I think of the 'long term', I think of the 86 years between championships. The SOX have a good shot to win it all this year, but not w/o adding a very good starter. In addition to Sale. Let the future take care of itself.

Edited July 28, 2021 by SPLENDIDSPLINTER

[moonslav59]

Should we look at our opportunity in historical context? Winning the world series is uncommon occurrence. Sox have won 4 out of last 20.

 

Our starting pitching even with Sale's impending return seems too soft after Sale and Eovaldi against 9 other playoff bound teams.

 

Do we improve our odds of winning it all by adding a top of the line starting pitcher? Scherzer, Sale, Eovaldi and E Rod sounds pretty good.

 

Our starting pitching in 2022 will have Sale, Eovaldi, Pivetta along with Houck and Whitlock. Losing Perez, Eovaldi and Richards releases $22M or so in payroll. Enough money there to add a starter and a reliever to replace Ottavino. Maybe that starter is E Rod.

 

Our bullpen will have Barnes, Sawamura, Darwinzon, Taylor, Brasier, good base to build the bullpen in 2022.

 

Our offense will return pretty much in tact in 2022 unless JD opts out.

 

It's not as though we're emptying out our farm.

 

Despite lack of production from 1B, we're getting plenty of offense.

 

Don't we owe Devers, Xander, JD, Kike, Verdugo, Renfroe and Vaz a chance at the ring?

 

For me, emergence of Arroyo has solved our problem at 2B. He's under team control for another 3 years. I think we'll sweeten Xander's contract to keep him in Boston. We're not getting rid of Devers.

 

Looks to me like Downs is blocked.

 

Groome is finally pitching again and now has some trade value. He ranks behind other starter possibilities, Mata, Bello, Seabold.

 

Is a rental a good idea when there's no long term contractual obligation attached to it?

 

I’m not even all that high on Downs, but keeping the most top prospects improves your odds.

 

Downs is not blocked if Bogey opts out after 2022.

 

We owe this team some deals like we made in2018- both rentals by the way, but nothing really all that promising.

 

If we are trading top prospects, it should be like the Sale deal and at the right time.

 

I get the sense of urgency, but I think we’re a better team next year and beyond. I realise, if I’m wrong, we may look back at 2021 as a great blunder.

[moonslav59]

When I think of the 'long term', I think of the 86 years between championships. The SOX have a good shot to win it all this year, but not w/o adding a very good starter. In addition to Sale. Let the future take care of itself.

 

That philosophy brought us 2019 and 2020.

 

I’m not for doing nothing, and I don’t think Downs and scraps gets us Scherzer, anyway.

 

I want to win it all this year, but I don’t think now is the time to blow up the whole plan. I’m not shy about big deals- at the right time. I felt Sale brings us a ring, and he brought a 3 year window. I don’t think Scherzer makes us the faves, and he’s a 2 month rental.

 

Show me trades for 3+ year aces and I’ll likely be all aboard.

[Larry Cook]

That philosophy brought us 2019 and 2020.

 

I’m not for doing nothing, and I don’t think Downs and scraps gets us Scherzer, anyway.

 

I want to win it all this year, but I don’t think now is the time to blow up the whole plan. I’m not shy about big deals- at the right time. I felt Sale brings us a ring, and he brought a 3 year window. I don’t think Scherzer makes us the faves, and he’s a 2 month rental.

 

Show me trades for 3+ year aces and I’ll likely be all aboard.

 

We have 3 prospects ranked in the top 100. And I can not see Hang’em Chaim dealing any of them.

 

Thus do I think we are dealing in the tier 2 snd tier 3 trade front.

[notin]

Moon, what would you be willing to give up for rental Scherzer?

 

Would we be a sure thing to win the Division with him and return of Sale?

 

I'm willing to part with Downs, Groome, and Chavis and other fringe young players.

 

As I've discussed previously, I'm no longer concerned about going over the first luxury tax threshold. At most it's $8.5M penalty on $230M payroll.

 

Not sure what the Nats want for Scherzer, and yes he will probably be worth more than his BTV value, mostly based on how many teams get involved. But no team is breaking the bank for him and unloading their top prospects. If Scherzer returns a top 100 prospect, it will probably be somebody ranked below 70 and that piece is probably the only one going back.

 

He’s not going to be cheap, but other teams are not going to jeopardize their future for 2 months of him, either…

Edited July 28, 2021 by notin

[Bellhorn04]

Not sure what the Nats want for Scherzer, and yes he will probably be worth more than his BTV value, mostly based on how many teams get involved. But no team is breaking the bank for him and unloading their top prospects. If Scherzer returns a top 100 prospect, it will probably be somebody ranked below 70 and that piece is probably the only one going back.

 

He’s not going to be cheap, but other teams are not going to jeopardize their future for 2 months of him, either…

 

I don't know about jeopardizing the future, but maybe someone might do a Torres for Chapman type jaw-dropper.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I don’t think Scherzer makes us the faves, and he’s a 2 month rental.

 

 

I think Scherzer does make the Sox the favorites... IF Sale is All-Star Eovaldi level (but right now, the rehabbing Sale is not). If so, then an All-Star trio at the top of the rotation definitely favors the Sox to at least get to the World Series.

 

In the next three days the Boston brass has to decide if their evaluators and trainers think Sale will transition back to above-average MLB starter... in the next month. If not, don't go all-in for Max... instead, pick up another decent starter and reliever, and trust in Cora and the hitters to keep it fun.

 

Which approach is more likely?

[notin]

I don't know about jeopardizing the future, but maybe someone might do a Torres for Chapman type jaw-dropper.

 

 

Maybe, but even those deals are very uncommon. Can you think of any other deals where a team dropped a top 100 prospect for a rental?

[Nick]

I think Scherzer does make the Sox the favorites... IF Sale is All-Star Eovaldi level (but right now, the rehabbing Sale is not). If so, then an All-Star trio at the top of the rotation definitely favors the Sox to at least get to the World Series.

 

In the next three days the Boston brass has to decide if their evaluators and trainers think Sale will transition back to above-average MLB starter... in the next month. If not, don't go all-in for Max... instead, pick up another decent starter and reliever, and trust in Cora and the hitters to keep it fun.

 

Which approach is more likely?

 

My guess is they will be prudent and take the conservative approach.

 

That said, this team is not the team in April. Emergence of Kike and Renfroe has changed my outlook.

 

In spite of the 1st base woes, it's the quality of our starting pitching that is most troubling to me. It seem we are now going into games thinking we have to score 5+ runs to win. That maybe a too high of hurdle against playoff bound teams.

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe, but even those deals are very uncommon. Can you think of any other deals where a team dropped a top 100 prospect for a rental?

 

No. But as we discussed recently, you also don't see a Scherzer-level rental very often either.

[mvp 78]

No. But as we discussed recently, you also don't see a Scherzer-level rental very often either.

 

Or a team offering Scherzer AND Turner...

[moonslav59]

Not sure what the Nats want for Scherzer, and yes he will probably be worth more than his BTV value, mostly based on how many teams get involved. But no team is breaking the bank for him and unloading their top prospects. If Scherzer returns a top 100 prospect, it will probably be somebody ranked below 70 and that piece is probably the only one going back.

 

He’s not going to be cheap, but other teams are not going to jeopardize their future for 2 months of him, either…

 

History shows otherwise. Scherzer will net a top 70 or 2 top 100

[moonslav59]

I think Scherzer does make the Sox the favorites... IF Sale is All-Star Eovaldi level (but right now, the rehabbing Sale is not). If so, then an All-Star trio at the top of the rotation definitely favors the Sox to at least get to the World Series.

 

In the next three days the Boston brass has to decide if their evaluators and trainers think Sale will transition back to above-average MLB starter... in the next month. If not, don't go all-in for Max... instead, pick up another decent starter and reliever, and trust in Cora and the hitters to keep it fun.

 

Which approach is more likely?

 

Maybe faves to win AL- maybe.

 

The Dodgers and Padres are stacked and also adding pieces.

 

The Astros look great on paper, especially if they add some pen help.

[notin]

History shows otherwise. Scherzer will net a top 70 or 2 top 100

 

What history?

[notin]

No. But as we discussed recently, you also don't see a Scherzer-level rental very often either.

 

We could argue about whether or not a player is “Scherzer level”, but certainly renting Manny Machado in 2018 cost nothing, unless you’re a big fan of Dean Kramer. Machado was certainly an elite player, although not a pitcher.

 

In 2015, the cost of renting David Price did involve a highly ranked Daniel Norris. Whether or not you think Price’s significantly younger age at the time was a factor is debatable. Obviously extending 30 year old Price felt like a smarter move than extending 37yo Scherzer will be, but I don’t know if Toronto ever even considered it a possibility or just viewed him as a straight up rental…

[mvp 78]

What history?

 

A USA TODAY Sports analysis of 94 July trade-deadline deals from 2015 to 2019 that shipped 204 prospects from buyers to sellers confirms a strongly held feeling throughout the industry – that teams are holding their top prospects tighter than ever, making it exceedingly difficult to extract value for star players.

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2021/07/26/mlb-trade-deadline-history-dealing-prospects-rumors/8075954002/