A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[moonslav59]

I'd want to protect following prospects. Groome and Chavis enough?

 

They won't even take Groome, Yorke and Bonaci. (IMO)

[moonslav59]

2.5 up on the Rays (2 in loss column)

8.5 up on Yanks

10.5 on Jays

 

Tied with HOU for best record at 63-40 (.612)

CWS -2.5 from best AL record

 

 

AL WC

- TB

- OAK

-2.0 SEA

-2.5 NYY

-4.5 TOR

-5.0 CLE

-5.5 LAA

[oldtimer]

Ward might not even be protected for rule 5.

You have been clear that we cannot protect all of our prospects and we do have needs. It seems obvious that we use prospects and 40 man players not in our future plans to fill our needs. My view is a 1st baseman and i'm leaning toward another RP. Bloom has less than 2 days to make those moves. No doubt the ground work has been done to secure those results. I do worry that we will go out for a rental of a big time pro, but have faith that Bloom is no fool.

[notin]

Ward might not even be protected for rule 5.

 

Very possible

 

I have my doubts any team is going to want to dedicate a roster spot for all of 2022 to a pitcher with 5 IP above A ball since 2019…

Edited July 29, 2021 by notin

[mvp 78]

They won't even take Groome, Yorke and Bonaci. (IMO)

 

They won't get a better deal than that.

[mvp 78]

Very possible

 

I have my doubts any team is going to want to dedicate a roster spot for all of 2022 to a pitcher with 5 IP above A ball since 2019…

 

They would put him on the 60 day MLB IL, but he'd lose a year of service time I believe. He would also have to stay on their MLB roster for all of 2023.

Edited July 29, 2021 by mvp 78

[Nick]

My guess is everyone wants to see Scherzer pitch tonight before the deal is finalized. He was scratched from last start due to some tricep tightness.

[Nick]

There are several veterans that may not be protected on 40 man roster.

 

Richards

Perez

Andriese

Ottavino

Workman

Plawecki

Chavis

Gonzalez

Santana

[iortiz]

Assuming a team gets a 100% healthy Scherzer, he is still one of the best of the game.

 

Said that, I assume by simple common sense that if the Red Sox acquire Scherzer they are aware of all the collaterals and cost of opportunity of this trade.

 

Thing is our team is in a legit position to win it all this year, thing that no one thought starting the season, maybe not even JH or CB.

[sk7326]

When I think of the 'long term', I think of the 86 years between championships. The SOX have a good shot to win it all this year, but not w/o adding a very good starter. In addition to Sale. Let the future take care of itself.

 

This is baseball - you gave a good chance to win it by being in the tournament. Improvement on the margins can make a big difference. I'm not advocating "selling the farm" (not that there is a ton to sell) ... but chances to win it all should not be taken lightly either.

[iortiz]

The later could change a bit the plans of JH and CB moving forward which is valid.

[moonslav59]

You have been clear that we cannot protect all of our prospects and we do have needs. It seems obvious that we use prospects and 40 man players not in our future plans to fill our needs. My view is a 1st baseman and i'm leaning toward another RP. Bloom has less than 2 days to make those moves. No doubt the ground work has been done to secure those results. I do worry that we will go out for a rental of a big time pro, but have faith that Bloom is no fool.

 

I think Bloom will avoid rentals, unless the return cost is someone he thinks wasn't going to be on the roster, next year. He may try to trade for a controlled player that will be part of the longer term outlook as well as 2021. This will be tricky, because the return will be much more, if the guy is any good.

[moonslav59]

They won't get a better deal than that.

 

I think they might... hopefully, not from us.

[mvp 78]

I think they might... hopefully, not from us.

 

I think it's more likely he blows out his arm his next start.

[moonslav59]

There are several veterans that may not be protected on 40 man roster.

 

Richards

Perez

Andriese

Ottavino

Workman

Plawecki

Chavis

Gonzalez

Santana

 

This year or next?

 

Ottavino isn't going anywhere, and is a FA after this year. Others are FAs, too.

[notin]

They would put him on the 60 day MLB IL, but he'd lose a year of service time I believe. He would also have to stay on their MLB roster for all of 2022.

 

Time spent on the 60 day IL would NOT count towards his roster control for 2022. That would just spill the requirement over to 2023, much like happened with the Red Sox when they selected the oft-injured Adam Stern, who actually may have never been injured...

[Nick]

This year or next?

 

Ottavino isn't going anywhere, and is a FA after this year. Others are FAs, too.

 

I meant for 2022.

[mvp 78]

Time spent on the 60 day IL would NOT count towards his roster control for 2022. That would just spill the requirement over to 2023, much like happened with the Red Sox when they selected the oft-injured Adam Stern, who actually may have never been injured...

 

Sorry, I meant "2023" in the second sentence.

[notin]

This is baseball - you gave a good chance to win it by being in the tournament. Improvement on the margins can make a big difference. I'm not advocating "selling the farm" (not that there is a ton to sell) ... but chances to win it all should not be taken lightly either.

 

Honestly, except maybe Casas, do the Sox really even have any untouchable prospects (without including the 2021 draftees)? And even Casas, while certainly a good prospect, shouldn't be untouchable in the right deal. He's a very one dimensional prospect. If he struggles to hit, what's left? Mitch Moreland without the defense?

 

I see people listing Noah Song and his 0 career IP above college as untouchable. He might be talented, but that designation is a bit much. His saving grace is he is probably out of sight/out of mind among a lot of baseball people.

 

I'm far from advocating selling the farm, but let's be a bit reasonable with who's available and who isn't...

[mvp 78]

Honestly, except maybe Casas, do the Sox really even have any untouchable prospects (without including the 2021 draftees)? And even Casas, while certainly a good prospect, shouldn't be untouchable in the right deal. He's a very one dimensional prospect. If he struggles to hit, what's left? Mitch Moreland without the defense?

 

I see people listing Noah Song and his 0 career IP above college as untouchable. He might be talented, but that designation is a bit much. His saving grace is he is probably out of sight/out of mind among a lot of baseball people.

 

I'm far from advocating selling the farm, but let's be a bit reasonable with who's available and who isn't...

 

No prospect should be untouchable in the right deal.

[mvp 78]

Furthermore, no player should be untouchable in the right deal. If you're the Padres, there is conceivably a deal that would make sense to move Tatis.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herschel_Walker_trade

[Nick]

Suppose we're able to land Scherzer without much damage to our minor league system.

 

Competitiveness of a player is difficult to measure. It's like 'porn', I know it's bad analogy. You know it when you see it.

 

Scherzer types exudes confidence, similar to our Chris Sale. Then you have Richards. He may have lost his future earnings with his little outburst.

 

Question becomes this for me...are we better off combining the salaries of Richards ($10M), Perez ($5M), Andriese ($1.2M) and even E Rod ($8.3) and getting a Scherzer or do we wait and hope to develop a Scherzer and spread the risk among several starters as we did this year?

 

How long do we wait? Posters here at different times were excited for Groome at one point. It's been a journey for him and the outcome is still uncertain.

 

Our top two starters right now came via a trade, Sale and Eovaldi. We gave up some talent. (I wish we could have kept Kopech).

 

I think we're moving in the right direction with young arms such as Seabold (25), Mata (22), Bello (22), Ramirez (20), Groome (22), Song(24) and Ward (24), not to mention Whitlock (25), Houck (25), Darwinzon (24), Taylor (28) and Pivetta (28).

 

I'm not asking Bloom to empty the pantry. Just part with little of it to get a bona fide ace.

Edited July 29, 2021 by Nick

[notin]

No prospect should be untouchable in the right deal.

 

Fair point, but I think the "right deal" for Casas might be a lower bar than many of us expect...

[moonslav59]

I meant for 2022.

 

He is a FA after 2021, along with ERod, Marwin, Santana, Workman and maybe JD, if he opts out. (Richards and Perez have options.)

[moonslav59]

Honestly, except maybe Casas, do the Sox really even have any untouchable prospects (without including the 2021 draftees)? And even Casas, while certainly a good prospect, shouldn't be untouchable in the right deal. He's a very one dimensional prospect. If he struggles to hit, what's left? Mitch Moreland without the defense?

 

I see people listing Noah Song and his 0 career IP above college as untouchable. He might be talented, but that designation is a bit much. His saving grace is he is probably out of sight/out of mind among a lot of baseball people.

 

I'm far from advocating selling the farm, but let's be a bit reasonable with who's available and who isn't...

 

I'm liking Bello more and more.

[notin]

I'm liking Bello more and more.

 

He has come a long way, but he is not some sort of unique talent that cannot be found in any other farm system, either.

 

The farm is getting better, and it is light years ahead of the 2018-2019 systems. But I don't think the Sox prospects are as highly regarded by other GMs as they are by many Sox fans...

[moonslav59]

He has come a long way, but he is not some sort of unique talent that cannot be found in any other farm system, either.

 

The farm is getting better, and it is light years ahead of the 2018-2019 systems. But I don't think the Sox prospects are as highly regarded by other GMs as they are by many Sox fans...

 

My feeling for Casas and Downs have dipped, this year, but I am not for trading our top 7-8 guys for any rental.

[notin]

Suppose we're able to land Scherzer without much damage to our minor league system.

 

Competitiveness of a player is difficult to measure. It's like 'porn', I know it's bad analogy. You know it when you see it.

 

Scherzer types exudes confidence, similar to our Chris Sale. Then you have Richards. He may have lost his future earnings with his little outburst.

 

Question becomes this for me...are we better off combining the salaries of Richards ($10M), Perez ($5M), Andriese ($1.2M) and even E Rod ($8.3) and getting a Scherzer or do we wait and hope to develop a Scherzer and spread the risk among several starters as we did this year?

 

How long do we wait? Posters here at different times were excited for Groome at one point. It's been a journey for him and the outcome is still uncertain.

 

Our top two starters right now came via a trade, Sale and Eovaldi. We gave up some talent. (I wish we could have kept Kopech).

 

I think we're moving in the right direction with young arms such as Seabold, Mata, Bello, Ramirez, Groome, Song and Ward, not to mention Whitlock, Houck, Darwinzon and Pivetta.

 

I'm not asking Bloom to empty the pantry. Just part with little of it to get a bona fide ace.

 

Would you trade Duran for Berrios?

 

Berrios is the best name available who is not a rental, as he is controlled for 2023. But his price tag is probably also a lot higher than it will be for the rental Scherzer..

[moonslav59]

Would you trade Duran for Berrios?

 

Berrios is the best name available who is not a rental, as he is controlled for 2023. But his price tag is probably also a lot higher than it will be for the rental Scherzer..

 

I'd give Casas or Downs + Groome.

[Nick]

He has come a long way, but he is not some sort of unique talent that cannot be found in any other farm system, either.

 

The farm is getting better, and it is light years ahead of the 2018-2019 systems. But I don't think the Sox prospects are as highly regarded by other GMs as they are by many Sox fans...

 

Which begs the question, why are we so stingy with them when it comes to trading them to acquire proven talent?