A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[Maxbialystock]

This the “realistic” thread.

 

Take the talk of moving Bogey- not to 3B- not at the end of the season, but to 1B mid season, then trading the world for a SS to another thread.

 

I said it was insane and unworkable--in your words, unrealistic. However, you have said in the not too distant past that SS (and possibly CF) are so important they can affect the pitching. In the case of SS, it's not just errors, but ground ball singles that could/should have been outs and groundouts that could/should have been GIDP's.

 

I never said "trade the world" for a SS, but have to admit that might be what it takes.

[Maxbialystock]

I said it was insane and unworkable--in your words, unrealistic. However, you have said in the not too distant past that SS (and possibly CF) are so important they can affect the pitching. In the case of SS, it's not just errors, but ground ball singles that could/should have been outs and groundouts that could/should have been GIDP's.

 

I never said "trade the world" for a SS, but have to admit that might be what it takes.

 

On the other hand, right now Devers has the highest WAR on the Sox at 3.4, part of which is DWAR of +.4. Bogaerts WAR is 2d highest at 2.7, including a DWAR of -.7.

 

So, if WAR and DWAR have any meaning, you can make a good case Bogie's defense isn't that big a problem.

[oldtimer]

I'm surprised that this site doesn't include an entry for the upcoming draft which is only a few days away. As someone over 80, I don't feel it is my place to do that but am certainly interested. Other Red Sox fan sites do have separate discussions but I feel that this is the site with the best informed fans. Is there a moderator to handle this sort of activity?

[Nick]

Sale has not pitched in game action since Aug. 13, 2019, when he struck out 12 batters in 6 ⅔ innings against the Guardians in Cleveland. Soon after, he was placed on the injured list with elbow inflammation; after trying to come back during spring training in 2020, he suffered a setback and underwent Tommy John surgery on March 30, 2020.

 

Basically we wasted 7 months. Had he gotten his surgery sooner, He would have been ready for Spring Training 2021.

Edited July 7, 2021 by Nick

[Nick]

I'm surprised that this site doesn't include an entry for the upcoming draft which is only a few days away. As someone over 80, I don't feel it is my place to do that but am certainly interested. Other Red Sox fan sites do have separate discussions but I feel that this is the site with the best informed fans. Is there a moderator to handle this sort of activity?

 

No draft thread but Why was Mookie traded, exactly lives forever...

[moonslav59]

No draft thread but Why was Mookie traded, exactly lives forever...

 

There is a draft thread.

 

I’ll bring it to the top.

[Hugh2]

No draft thread but Why was Mookie traded, exactly lives forever...

 

There’s a draft thread under the “Red Sox minor league” section

[Bellhorn04]

No draft thread but Why was Mookie traded, exactly lives forever...

 

I strongly resemble that remark.

[Nick]

I strongly resemble that remark.

 

Very good....you made me laugh...

[moonslav59]

We're 10-4 in the last 14 days with a 2.83 ERA.

 

2.66 Eovaldi (20 IP)

3.00 Pivetta (18)

1.88 Perez (14)

8.03 Richards (12)

1.50 ERod (12)

 

0.00 Taylor (6), Workman (5), DHern (3)

1.35 Barnes (7), Whitlock 97)

1.80 Sawamura (5)

2.57 Ottavino (7)

3.00 Rios (6)

10.38 Andriese (4)

 

Hottest hitters over 14 days:

1.049 Devers

.956 Kike

.903 Renfroe

.873 JD

 

 

[notin]

No draft thread but Why was Mookie traded, exactly lives forever...

 

The draft thread is on the Minor League board…

[moonslav59]

10-2

 

2.69 ERA (Second best ERA- in MLB at 59)

92 xFIP- (second to LAD)

 

Offense

.798 OPS (7th)

.296 BAbip (19th)

[mvp 78]

@peteabe

 

Lots of indications that Tanner Houck is going to be part of the mix post All-Star break.

[iortiz]

@peteabe

 

Lots of indications that Tanner Houck is going to be part of the mix post All-Star break.

 

From a what he did in 2020 some people still don't make him credit.

 

Loved what he did in 2020 and will be a huge asset if he performs close from what he did in 2020.

[Hugh2]

I think Houck will be a great asset out of the pen, he might piggy back and throw some long relief too.

 

I can see them throwing Houck out behind Sale when comes back.

[Nick]

We knew this was coming.

 

Per MassLive

 

The Red Sox also plan on using Tanner Houck soon after the break, though his exact role isn’t yet known. Houck could make a spot start or two by the end of July after working his way back from flexor muscle tightness.

 

“He feels good. Everything went well in the last one,” Cora said. “As you guys know, he’s going to be part of this at one point. How soon, we don’t know yet but he’s important for us and he will contribute.”

[Nick]

I value Sox success above anything else....

 

If we have better 1B option, go for it. I'm hoping Dalbec would take the position and run with it.

 

Arroyo has chance to do just that at second base.

 

It appears Duran will compete for playing time (not today, when he's ready) NOT against Kike, but against Arroyo. Kike will default to playing the loser's position.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Cordero is getting his first start at 1b in AAA tonight, and thus the idea of a 1b platoon is back on.

 

Let's see how this might work.

 

(1) Santana released, Cordero promoted

 

(2) Andriese released, Houck promoted

 

(3) Workman released, Sale takes his spot

 

(4) Rios demoted, Red Sox trade for top relief pitcher. How about a reunion with Craig Kimbrel?

 

If the Red Sox go with a 1b platoon of Cordero and Dalbec--and need two roster spots to cover 1b--there is probably no room for Duran.

 

Also, assuming the Red Sox make the postseason, the postseason rotation might look something like this:

 

Sale

Eovaldi

Houck

Pivetta

(with E-Rod and Perez moving to the bullpen (joining G.Richards, who gets moved to the bullpen during the regular season)

 

I guess some people might prefer this:

Sale

Eovaldi

Pivetta

Perez

(With E-Rod and Houck moving to the bullpen (Joining G.Richards).

 

Also, in considering what the postseason roster might look like, there are probably too many pitchers. It would make sense to put Duran on the postseason roster, an extra position player, and leave off one of the pitchers, such as G.Richards. I would be shocked if G.Richards makes a significant contribution from the bullpen. Moreover, would you really trust using G.Richards in a playoff game from the bullpen?

Edited July 7, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[moonslav59]

From a what he did in 2020 some people still don't make him credit.

 

Loved what he did in 2020 and will be a huge asset if he performs close from what he did in 2020.

 

He looked great, but it was 3 starts.

[oldtimer]

He looked great, but it was 3 starts.

The truth is we don't know how either Houck or Sale will do upon return. To suggest them ahead of ERod makes little sense, not that you suggested that. I hope Sale and ERod along with Pivetta and Eovaldi would be pitching well enough to be our 4 starters with Richards, Houck and Perez all as long relievers if necessary.

[moonslav59]

The truth is we don't know how either Houck or Sale will do upon return. To suggest them ahead of ERod makes little sense, not that you suggested that. I hope Sale and ERod along with Pivetta and Eovaldi would be pitching well enough to be our 4 starters with Richards, Houck and Perez all as long relievers if necessary.

 

Like in the playoffs?

 

We need a 5 man rotation to finish the season.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Red Sox postseason pitching staff

 

Starters

Sale

Eovaldi

Houck

Pivetta

 

Bullpen

C.Kimbrel (trade Jeter Downs for Kimbrel)

Barnes

Ottavino

Whitlock

Sawamura

Taylor

Rodriguez

Perez

Hernandez

 

(Richards left off)

 

4 man bench

Duran

Gonzalez

Plawecki

Cordero or Dalbec

[Hugh2]

Their usage of Houck has been funny, as has his pitch mix been. All the opposite of a guy you’re throwing in your rotation.

 

I don’t think we see Houck in a non relief role unless he’s piggybacking or being followed.

[Nick]

Red Sox postseason pitching staff

 

Starters

Sale

Eovaldi

Houck

Pivetta

 

Bullpen

C.Kimbrel (trade Jeter Downs for Kimbrel)

Barnes

Ottavino

Whitlock

Sawamura

Taylor

Rodriguez

Perez

Hernandez

 

(Richards left off)

 

4 man bench

Duran

Gonzalez

Plawecki

Cordero or Dalbec

 

I doubt seriously the team will go over the limit. It's stupid to go slightly over it. It kicks in the steep penalty phases into play for 22 and 23.

Time to go over it would be in 2022 and go over it by $39M. That's how you play that game. Go big.

 

Other than Chavis, I don't see us willing to give up any top prospects. None.

[Bellhorn04]

I doubt seriously the team will go over the limit. It's stupid to go slightly over it. It kicks in the steep penalty phases into play for 22 and 23.

Time to go over it would be in 2022 and go over it by $39M. That's how you play that game. Go big.

 

Hey, we were having a perfectly good luxury tax argument in the other thread.

 

Might as well move it here, I guess.

[notin]

Red Sox postseason pitching staff

 

Starters

Sale

Eovaldi

Houck

Pivetta

 

Bullpen

C.Kimbrel (trade Jeter Downs for Kimbrel)

Barnes

Ottavino

Whitlock

Sawamura

Taylor

Rodriguez

Perez

Hernandez

 

(Richards left off)

 

4 man bench

Duran

Gonzalez

Plawecki

Cordero or Dalbec

 

Why would the Sox put Duran on the bench? If he comes up, it's to start.

 

Kimbrel is having a great year, but I seriously doubt the Sox give up Jeter Downs for him. Kimbrel is also expensive, which, unless the Cubs pay a huge chunk of money, drastically reduces what they get in a trade. BTV gives Kimbrel a trade value of 0, which feels a bit low but by the deadline he will still have owed about $6.3 mill (with a $16mill option for 2022). BTV gives Downs a surplus value of 29.6. So even if the Kimbrel value is low, like I think it is, Downs is still a massive overpayment. Maybe someone like Jay Groome (BTV value: 4.3) would be the best offer the Sox make....

[notin]

I doubt seriously the team will go over the limit. It's stupid to go slightly over it. It kicks in the steep penalty phases into play for 22 and 23.

Time to go over it would be in 2022 and go over it by $39M. That's how you play that game. Go big.

 

Other than Chavis, I don't see us willing to give up any top prospects. None.

 

Assuming it matters once the new CBA is finalized...

[moonslav59]

Why would the Sox put Duran on the bench? If he comes up, it's to start.

 

Kimbrel is having a great year, but I seriously doubt the Sox give up Jeter Downs for him. Kimbrel is also expensive, which, unless the Cubs pay a huge chunk of money, drastically reduces what they get in a trade. BTV gives Kimbrel a trade value of 0, which feels a bit low but by the deadline he will still have owed about $6.3 mill (with a $16mill option for 2022). BTV gives Downs a surplus value of 29.6. So even if the Kimbrel value is low, like I think it is, Downs is still a massive overpayment. Maybe someone like Jay Groome (BTV value: 4.3) would be the best offer the Sox make....

 

Agreed. Even if the Sox got the Cubs to pay some of his contract so we don’t go over the line, I’m thinking even Groome is beyond what Bloom wants to give up.

[Hugh2]

Assuming it matters once the new CBA is finalized...

 

That’s a two way street, the penalties could become much harsher, which may explain every teams desire to go past the limit (LA aside)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Why would the Sox put Duran on the bench? If he comes up, it's to start.

 

Kimbrel is having a great year, but I seriously doubt the Sox give up Jeter Downs for him. Kimbrel is also expensive, which, unless the Cubs pay a huge chunk of money, drastically reduces what they get in a trade. BTV gives Kimbrel a trade value of 0...

 

You can have my answer now, if you like. My final offer is this: nothing.