A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[notin]

We lead MLB in runs per game now.

 

So whatever issues we have on offense, other teams have even bigger issues.

 

I'm much more concerned about maintaining our pitching.

 

Yeah, bullpen is far more likely than outfield...

[Nick]

Yeah, bullpen is far more likely than outfield...

 

I think you and Bellhorn04 are pretty smart. So we can only 'worry' about one thing at a time? Mark my words. Our top hitters will come down. Bottom of the lineup will eventually have to be accountable.

 

Lets talk about pitching shall we?

 

Our starters have been healthy. We're little concerned that they can't seem to go deep into the games. Right now it's 5 innings and handoff. But they've exceeded my expectations.

 

Our issue right now is lack of depth mainly due to injuries.

 

1.Brasier appears to be on the mend.

2 Not sure if he can come back to 2018 level, but Workman is back with the Sox

3 Houck has started throwing....he can give us bullpen depth or as a starter if someone gets hurt

4 Seabold I hear is week or two behind Houck, potentially another depth piece for rotation

 

We have 9 non starters in the pen. I bet the management is looking for improvement from those 9.

 

1 Ottavino can be a stud. I thought last night was perfect example. After getting two quick outs, he walks next 3 batters. I get it, it was f***ing crazy to have to pitch in those conditions. He was visibly frustrated. He finally was able to get a good grip on the ball and I think he threw 3 straight strikes to end the game. My point is he is frustrated, sometimes I think he thinks umpires are missing his pitches.

When his strike zone command returns, he will be a shut down reliever in the 8th.

 

2 Darwinzon...another stud with strike zone command issues. If you give him a clean inning and allow him to walk one batter, he can get couple of strike outs to get out of the inning. I don't trust him with runners on base. But if you need a strike out, he's probably the guy. He can be a shut down reliever in the 7th.

 

3 Sawamura...I thought the management was pleasantly surprised with his 'stuff', better than expected fastball. Maybe he's still adjusting to bigger baseball. I thought he'd be our shut down 6th inning guy.

 

4 Whitlock....I posted an article on him where its noted that he's working on a slider. He needs it to be spot starter. I always forget that pitchers are constantly working their craft on off days to improve. Although I'd like to see him pitch more, Sox are doing the right thing with him.

 

5. Taylor...it's been night and day in May for him. Another guy I thought that struggled with command of his pitches. He's pitched well lately.

 

6. One guy is the designated third shift clean up guy. Colten Brewer has that job right now.

 

 

Our pitching staff can get better internally. Getting everyone healthy would help the depth.

 

Eventually, return of Chris Sale will elevate the pitching staff.

 

Who starts for us in the wildcard game? We'll probably have to outscore the opponent.

 

Sooooooo, can we talk about replacing low OPS guys to score more runs?

Edited May 29, 2021 by Nick

[Bellhorn04]

Okay, can we talk about replacing low OPS guys?

 

Cordero has been replaced.

 

Marwin has the versatility and his offense is a little better than this.

 

Renfroe has been better lately.

 

Dalbec is the guy in danger of losing at-bats, but wouldn't want to give up on him yet.

 

I don't see any need to be looking outside the organization for anything at this point.

[Nick]

I don't see any need to be looking outside the organization for anything at this point.

 

I fully agree with that statement.

[Bellhorn04]

As far as the guys at the top regressing, JD, Bogaerts, Devers and Verdugo are such good hitters that they may not regress that much. As always, just hope everyone stays healthy.

[Larry Cook]

As far as the guys at the top regressing, JD, Bogaerts, Devers and Verdugo are such good hitters that they may not regress that much. As always, just hope everyone stays healthy.

 

Health is always key to every season, and we do have a stud starter that may be available in a few months!

[moonslav59]

Players who may help us later this year:

 

Sale

Brasier

Houck

Duran

Chavis

Aráuz

Bazardo

Seabold

Brennan

Cordero (yes, maybe back again)

 

(*not on 40 man.)

 

Casas

*Downs

*Workman

*McCarthy

*Ort

*Weber

 

Long shots (*not on 40 now)

*Muñoz

Wong

*Herrmann

Wilson

*Lopez

*Ockimey

*Puello or Getty’s

*Winckowski, Walden, Brice, Gossett

 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 30, 2021 by moonslav59

[iortiz]

Play 500 ball moving forward and we will win 87 games.

 

Very likely we win 90+ games.

[moonslav59]

Play 500 ball moving forward and we will win 87 games.

 

Very likely we win 90+ games.

 

These next two months will be very difficult.

 

I’m loving this.

 

It’s a long season, and we’re almost a third of the way through it.

[iortiz]

These next two months will be very difficult.

 

I’m loving this.

 

It’s a long season, and we’re almost a third of the way through it.

This team will be nothing but better with all the help on the wings you put above, plus what we might pick before the trade deadline.

[Nick]

Per MassLive

 

Pitching prospect Josh Winckowski — who the Boston Red Sox acquired in the Andrew Benintendi three-team trade — threw 7 scoreless innings for Double-A Portland on Saturday.

 

He earned the victory over Hartford, giving up just one hit and no walks while striking out nine. Portland won 4-3.

 

The 22-year-old righty is 2-0 with a 1.33 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in five starts. He has held the opposition to a .152 batting average in 27 innings. He has 26 strikeouts and nine walks.

 

I will take Renfroe, Kike and Verdugo trio over Beni......wait till we find out who else we're getting in the deal

[Nick]

Changing topic...we live in time where from outer space we can pinpoint a spot on earth.

 

We need to use technology to provide consistency in calling balls and strikes. We use videos when the call is challenged. Calling balls and strikes requires keener eye than the challenges. Between two teams, you see over 200 pitches. There's no f***ing way a human being can be right making balls and strike decisions. Impossible.

 

I'm sure someone has tracked the right call rate. I'd like to know what that is.

 

Ottavino was lucky today. A ball outside the strike zone was called strike to bail him out from walking a batter. Not the last game but the game previously, Ottavino ran into some tough calls by the ump. Calls went against him. (based on TV replays aided by the strike zone box)

 

The strike zone is not consistent from pitch to pitch. We really need to address this in a near future.

Edited May 30, 2021 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Consistency makes the pitcher, catcher and batter’s job so much easier.

 

It would also makes the home plate umps job much easier.

 

It’s “time” was actually years ago, but there’s no excuse going forward.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Changing topic...we live in time where from outer space we can pinpoint a spot on earth.

 

We need to use technology to provide consistency in calling balls and strikes. We use videos when the call is challenged. Calling balls and strikes requires keener eye than the challenges. Between two teams, you see over 200 pitches. There's no f***ing way a human being can be right making balls and strike decisions. Impossible.

 

I'm sure someone has tracked the right call rate. I'd like to know what that is.

 

Ottavino was lucky today. A ball outside the strike zone was called strike to bail him out from walking a batter. Not the last game but the game previously, Ottavino ran into some tough calls by the ump. Calls went against him. (based on TV replays aided by the strike zone box)

 

The strike zone is not consistent from pitch to pitch. We really need to address this in a near future.

 

Nick, you contribute a lot of perspectives on many aspects of the fan experience. I also have one on the "strike zone box" outline forced upon modern viewers of every televised game: it is vastly overrated because it's inaccurate -- both in camera angle and proportions; one size does not fit all -- the distance from the "letters to the knees" or the more realistic belt to the knees depends on the individual (ask Judge or Altuve).

 

All that "box" really does is create more stress for diehards -- because we want to believe we know what we're seeing. It may help guide opinions for casual fans, but it doesn't enhance, and only mars, my experience. If you watch one of those vintage telecasts from 15-20 years ago, notice there was no fake outline around the plate... and discerning fans and announcers did just fine assessing the calls.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

These next two weeks could be key in sustaining the Sox' unexpectedly great start: 14 games vs. Houston, New York and Toronto -- all clubs that could wear out an overachieving rotation and overworked bullpen. The first seven are on the road in Houston and the Bronx. Prediction? .500? 6 and 8 wouldn't knock Boston out of contention... remember, the Sox play NY and the Rays again at the end of the month.

 

What is a realistic record for the next two weeks? If the Sox hang in there and go 3-4 this week in parks full of anti-social (distanced) crowds, I say they come home and start dominating again in Fenway: 8 Ws, 6 Ls.

[moonslav59]

Our pen is not overworked.

 

Our starters have gone 5+ nearly every start.

 

We carried 9 RPers almost all season.

 

We had 7 inning double headers.

 

New rules have eliminated the 14 inning games and most of the 11 and 12 inning games, too.

 

We just had 2 days off in 5 days, and had a rain shortened game.

 

If anything, one could argue some pitchers are at risk of getting rusty.

[dgalehouse]

These next two weeks could be key in sustaining the Sox' unexpectedly great start: 14 games vs. Houston, New York and Toronto -- all clubs that could wear out an overachieving rotation and overworked bullpen. The first seven are on the road in Houston and the Bronx. Prediction? .500? 6 and 8 wouldn't knock Boston out of contention... remember, the Sox play NY and the Rays again at the end of the month.

 

What is a realistic record for the next two weeks? If the Sox hang in there and go 3-4 this week in parks full of anti-social (distanced) crowds, I say they come home and start dominating again in Fenway: 8 Ws, 6 Ls.

 

It will be interesting to see how the Sox fare in these matchups. While generally highly regarded, these teams all have serious flaws in one area or another. The schedule is not as daunting as you may think.

[Nick]

Our pen is not overworked.

 

Our starters have gone 5+ nearly every start.

 

We carried 9 RPers almost all season.

 

We had 7 inning double headers.

 

New rules have eliminated the 14 inning games and most of the 11 and 12 inning games, too.

 

We just had 2 days off in 5 days, and had a rain shortened game.

 

If anything, one could argue some pitchers are at risk of getting rusty.

 

The pen should be well rested. I think I only saw 2 IP by Whitlock, very few 1.1 IP, mostly 1 IP or less.

 

M.Barnes.. 29 xx xx 26 xx xx xx 22 xx 20

Ottavino... 29 28 xx 26 xx xx xx 22 xx xx

Josh Taylor 29 xx xx 26 xx xx xx 22 21 xx

Darwinzon. 29 xx xx xx xx xx xx 22 21 xx

Sawmura... 29 xx xx xx 25 xx 23 xx xx 20

Andriese.... xx xx xx 26 xx xx 23 xx xx xx

Valdez....... xx xx xx xx xx xx 23 22 xx 20

Whitlock.... xx xx xx xx 25 xx xx xx 21 xx

 

Workman pitched a clean inning yesterday in Worcester. 14 pitches, 3 K's, 0 BB, 0 H.

 

Chavis went 0-7, 6 K's. He will not get better at AAA. He is, what he is. .751 OPS hitter that strikes out a lot. It doesn't help that Cora has no confidence in him.

Edited May 30, 2021 by Nick

[Nick]

Question regarding Rule 5 players.

 

What if Whitlock is injured? Can he even go on IL? IF yes, can he get a couple of rehab appearances in minors?

[Nick]

They’ll finish in the 70s. If they weren’t in a division with three legit playoff contenders, I’d say 80, but even with the worst team in baseball in the division, they’ll have 57 games vs NYY, TB, and TOR. The pen is bad. The rotation isn’t much better. As time matches on, they’ll get worse and worse, especially if they sell off pieces.

 

I actually like this poster. I think he adds quite a bit to discussions. But his prediction from March is on the wrong track...

 

At 12 games over .500, we'll finish with 87 wins by winning half of our remaining games. Probably what can derail us the fastest is to suffer an injury to one of our starters. Not much depth there right now with injuries in the minors.

[moonslav59]

A look back at Bloom's major moves:

 

5 Years of Verdugo, Jeter Downs (#2 prospect) & Connor Wong($18) for Betts, Price and cash

 

4+ Years of Nick Pivetta and Connor Seabold (#7 prospect) for Workman, Hembree and cash

 

Signed Garrett Richards (#4)- 1 year plus team option

 

Re-signed Martin Perez- 1 year plus team option

 

Signed Kike Hernandez- 2 years

 

Signed Hunter Renfroe- 1 year contract (2 arb years left)

 

Garrett Whitlock Rule 5 ('20) from Yankees

 

Christian Arroyo off waivers from CLE (3 more arb years)

 

Phillips Valdez off waivers from SEA

 

Signed Hirokazu Sawamura- 2 years plus team option

 

Adam Ottavino & Frank German (#26) for cash

 

Josh Winckowski (#27), Franchy Cordero and 3 PTBNL for Benintendi & cash

 

Signed Marwin Gonzalez- 1 year

 

Jonathan Arauz Rule 5 ('19)

 

Signed Matt Andriese- 1 year plus team option

 

Signed Danny Santana (minor league w Major League or opt out)

 

Signed Kevin Plawecki (one more arb year)

 

Rolando Hernandez (#14) for Springs & Mazza

 

Jeisson Rosario (#20) & Hudson Potts (#21) for M Moreland

 

Jacob Wallace (#29) for Kevin Pillar

 

Brandon Brennan off Waivers from SEA

 

Christian Koss (#41) for Yoan Aybar

 

Zach Bryant for Josh Osich

 

PTBNL for CJ Chatham

 

Tyreque Reed & Kaleb Ort Minor League Rule 5

 

Draft:

#10 Nick Yorke

#17 Blaze Jordan

#32 Shane Drohan

 

IFA

#35 Miguel Bleis

 

Edited May 31, 2021 by moonslav59

[Nick]

A look back at Bloom's major moves: by Moon

 

9 of 30 prospects acquired by Bloom during off season via trade. Technically, Whitlock could have been the 10th. 4 PTBNL will show up this winter.

 

Bloom's done well.

[Nick]

Moon, I would love it if you would continue to accumulate/update Blooms acquisitions going forward. We can quickly see how he's done. I don't really see a bad deal. I'm also looking forward to this year's draft. Edited May 31, 2021 by Nick

[Nick]

Per MLBTradeRumors

 

Left-hander Mike Montgomery is planning to opt out of his minor league contract with the Yankees on June 1, reports Robert Murray of FanSided (Twitter link). If New York doesn’t select him to the major league roster, he’ll become a free agent.

 

Montgomery signed with the Yankees in early April, not long after being released from a minors pact with the crosstown Mets. He’s since pitched in four games with Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, working to a 7.56 ERA with mediocre strikeout and walk rates (21.1% and 11.8%, respectively) over 16 2/3 innings. While the 31-year-old has worked exclusively as a starter in the minors this season, he has plenty of experience in a swing role.

 

Between 2015-20, Montgomery made 183 MLB appearances, 70 of them starts. He’s posted a solid 3.84 ERA over that time, although his best production came earlier in his career. Montgomery pitched to a 4.95 ERA/4.90 SIERA between the Cubs and Royals in 2019, and he was limited to just 5 1/3 frames last year by a lat strain.

 

I wonder if we'd have any interest in him.

Edited May 31, 2021 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Moon, I would love it if you would continue to accumulate/update Blooms acquisitions going forward. We can quickly see how he's done. I don't really see a bad deal. I'm also looking forward to this year's draft.

 

I noticed, after, I forgot to add the Peraza signing. That was not a good one.

 

A bunch of the pitchers we threw out there last year we not good, but none were expected to be good.

 

Springs is good, now, with the Rays. LOL, of course!

[moonslav59]

A look back at Bloom's major moves: by Moon

 

9 of 30 prospects acquired by Bloom during off season via trade. Technically, Whitlock could have been the 10th. 4 PTBNL will show up this winter.

 

Bloom's done well.

 

The PTBNLs will be named next month, I think.

[Nick]

Noah Syndergaard for Mets is a name I've been very intrigued by in the past. He's only 29, pitching for $9.7M. He's a free agent next year.

 

He's been shut down for six weeks due to inflammation to his elbow . He had his Tommy John surgery year ago March. Probably all kinds of red flag but at his age, I don't think he's finished.

Edited May 31, 2021 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Here's a look at our top prospects according to soxprospects.com at some key moments in the last 2 decades:

 

Spring 2003 (Theo took over in winter of 2002)

1. Freddie Sanchez

2. Hanley Ramirez

3. Jordge de la Rosa

4. Youkilis

5. Dumatrait

6. Shoppach

7. Lester

8. Spann

9. D Murphey

10. A Martinez

11. J Stevens

12. de Vries

13. C Leon

14. A Mateo

15. C Zink

16. J Gamble

17. A Santos

18. K Gabbard

19. Billy Simon

20 M Delcarmen

 

Fall 2011 (Ben Cherington took over)

1. Middlebrooks

2. Kalish

3. Ranaudo

4. Bogaerts

5. Iglesias

6. Lavarnway

7. Barnes

8. Brentz

9. Jacobs

10. Swihart

11. Coyle

12. Cecchini

13. Weiland

14. Doubront

15. A Wilson

16. D Britton

17. Vitek

18. Head

19. Pimentel

20 O Tejada

 

 

 

Summer 2015 (just before Dave Dombrowski became GM)

1.ERod

2. Moncada

3. Devers

4. Margot

5. B Johnson

6. H Owebs

7.Benintendi

8. Kopech

9. J Guerra

10. Marrero

11. Espinoza

12. T Ball

13. Chavis

14. P Light

15. S Travis

16. Travis Shaw

17. Ty Buttrey

18. M Dubon

19. Stankiewicz

20. W Rijo

 

Fall 2019 (Bloom took over)

1. Casas

2. Mata

3. Groome

4. Jimenez

5. Dalbec

6. Duran

7. Houck

8. Song

9. Chatham

10. Ward

11. Zeferjahn

12. A Ramirez

13. M Lugo

14. C Murphy

15. N Decker

16. C Cannon

17. B Bello

18. A Flores

19. C Rafaela

20. M Wilson

(Only Chatham was traded away.)

 

May 2021

1. Casas

2. Downs

3. Duran

4. Whitlock

5. Houck

6. Jimenez

7. Seabold

8. Ward

9. A Ramirez

10. Yorke

11. Mata

12. Song

13. Groome

14. Ro Hernandez

15. M Lugo

16. B Bonaci

17. B Jordan

18. C Wong

19. Bazardo

20. J Rosario

21. Potts

22. Arauz

23. Murphy

24. Bello

25. Decker

26. German

27. Winckowski

28. Wallace

29. J Rodriguez

30. D Feltman

 

 

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Noah Syndergaard for Mets is a name I've been very intrigued by in the past. He's only 29, pitching for $9.7M. He's a free agent next year.

 

He's been shut down for six weeks due to inflammation to his elbow . He had his Tommy John surgery year ago March. Probably all kinds of red flag but at his age, I don't think he's finished.

 

He'll be 29, this winter but has only pitched over 180 innings twice- never over 200.

 

He's got some great numbers, but his health is a major concern.

 

[Larry Cook]

Man, did dombrowski inherit a full cabinet or what?

 

And yet we only got 1 worlds series title out of that turds time with us! Ouch!