A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[moonslav59]

That's the thing, Ockimey is not on the 40 man roster. And if I'm losing a player to make room for someone, it's going to someone like Duran later this year. I'd honestly rather let it ride with Dalbec and let him give him some more time because I'd want to platoon him at 1B.

 

There's going to be a 40 man crunch at some point, some of this stuff works itself out with injuries but I suspect some deadline moves will be made as well.

 

"Later this year," yes.

[moonslav59]

There's no 40 man crunch. There are a ton of guys they could dump without issue.

 

Agreed.

 

Although the bottom of our 40 man has improved, recently, we still have players that are not all that promising.

 

We just DFA'd Brice, and nobody took him- great spin rate and all.

[moonslav59]

Also, they could place Hudson Potts on 60 Day IL because they are probably not worried about his service time. That would free up a roster spot. You wouldn't want to do that with Mata as he is a much higher profile prospect.

 

I do wonder how long they'll hold onto Jay Groome.

 

I project a Chavis & Groome trade before the deadline.

[Hugh2]

"Later this year," yes.

 

That's what I meant when I said "at some point" no crunch yet.

[moonslav59]

Santana is going to be the guy we use to give Dalbec a break vs RHPs here and there- maybe more and more, if Dalbec keeps struggling vs righties AND to take the role of playing OF vs RHPs.

 

He's a switch hitter who hits righties better (.732 to .692 career), and if he can hit like he did in 2019, we'll have 5 good hitter not 4.

 

2019 pro-rated to 650 PAs:

 

v RHP: .286 34 99 (.858 OPS)

 

v LHP: .276 37 111 (.856 OPS)

 

Rookie year (pro-rated)

 

v R: .326 10 63 (.841 OPS) 61 XBHs & 26 SB/8 CS

v L: .310 9 54 (.786) 55 XBHs & 39 SB/0 CS

 

If Santana struggles like he did every year in between his rookie year and 2019, then we'll start thinking about giving Chavis another look of going with Duran, Casas or someone else.

 

 

[illinoisredsox]

Not advocating mind you, but if you are playing the percentages, you probably come out ahead by trading away high draft picks before they fail. We can't get much for Groome right now but maybe we could have in the year he was drafted. I'm advocating trading Groome his first year for say 3-1 deal with younger players coming back, not a veteran. Expand the chances of success. Trey Ball, who?

 

Unless they've changed the rules, you can't trade recent draft picks for one year. It's one of the reasons you sometimes see PTBNL take a long time to actually be named; the player can't actually be officially traded for a period of time.

[Nick]

Unless they've changed the rules, you can't trade recent draft picks for one year. It's one of the reasons you sometimes see PTBNL take a long time to actually be named; the player can't actually be officially traded for a period of time.

 

Thanks...I did not know about the one year no trade rule...

[mvp 78]

I project a Chavis & Groome trade before the deadline.

 

Not a bad bet.

[Nick]

Per MassLive

 

The Red Sox optioned outfielder Franchy Cordero to Triple-A Worcester after Wednesday’s game, the team announced Thursday morning. Boston will need to make a corresponding roster move before Friday’s series opener against the Marlins.

 

Cordero, who came over from the Royals in the Andrew Benintendi trade in February, has hit .179 (17-for-95) with one homer, six doubles and a .501 OPS in 34 games with the Red Sox this season. The 26-year-old has only started four of the club’s last 11 games, so the move is likely to get him more regular at-bats in the minors.

 

Position player seems unlikely. They just sent down Chavis. Cora saying he needs work. Probably a pitcher coming up.

[mvp 78]

Per MassLive

 

The Red Sox optioned outfielder Franchy Cordero to Triple-A Worcester after Wednesday’s game, the team announced Thursday morning. Boston will need to make a corresponding roster move before Friday’s series opener against the Marlins.

 

Cordero, who came over from the Royals in the Andrew Benintendi trade in February, has hit .179 (17-for-95) with one homer, six doubles and a .501 OPS in 34 games with the Red Sox this season. The 26-year-old has only started four of the club’s last 11 games, so the move is likely to get him more regular at-bats in the minors.

 

Position player seems unlikely. They just sent down Chavis. Cora saying he needs work. Probably a pitcher coming up.

 

Back to 14 man pitching unit?

[mvp 78]

Arauz? Has it been 10 days?

[mvp 78]

Call up Johan Mieses (aka Dollar Store Vlad Jr)

[Hugh2]

Santana is going to be the guy we use to give Dalbec a break vs RHPs here and there- maybe more and more, if Dalbec keeps struggling vs righties AND to take the role of playing OF vs RHPs.

 

He's a switch hitter who hits righties better (.732 to .692 career), and if he can hit like he did in 2019, we'll have 5 good hitter not 4.

 

2019 pro-rated to 650 PAs:

 

v RHP: .286 34 99 (.858 OPS)

 

v LHP: .276 37 111 (.856 OPS)

 

Rookie year (pro-rated)

 

v R: .326 10 63 (.841 OPS) 61 XBHs & 26 SB/8 CS

v L: .310 9 54 (.786) 55 XBHs & 39 SB/0 CS

 

If Santana struggles like he did every year in between his rookie year and 2019, then we'll start thinking about giving Chavis another look of going with Duran, Casas or someone else.

 

 

 

I'm actually pretty high on Dalbec, which is weird because I was low on him when everyone else seemingly was high on him. I think he needs time to adjust, and I think he has the talent level to justify it, if Santana can hit in replacement of Francy it's going to take a little bit of pressure off of him too.

 

He's never going to be a .300 hitter, if his hit tool ever took that big a leap he'd be the MVP with his power potential. He's barreling up the ball when he makes contact at double league rate, normally people who hit the ball that hard have higher BABIP than .280 and his lifetime average is .315. So, to some extent, he's had bad luck.

 

I think he's going to be a streaky hitter, in the same form that Jackie Bradley was, he's going to have months when just goes on a tear and hits 10+ home runs. Unfortunately, he's likely the odd man out in a year or two when Casas is ready.

[notin]

Unless they've changed the rules, you can't trade recent draft picks for one year. It's one of the reasons you sometimes see PTBNL take a long time to actually be named; the player can't actually be officially traded for a period of time.

 

They changed the rule until after the World Series, which really just means you can trade them 2 months earlier, since they were often traded as PTBNLs....

[moonslav59]

I'm actually pretty high on Dalbec, which is weird because I was low on him when everyone else seemingly was high on him. I think he needs time to adjust, and I think he has the talent level to justify it, if Santana can hit in replacement of Francy it's going to take a little bit of pressure off of him too.

 

He's never going to be a .300 hitter, if his hit tool ever took that big a leap he'd be the MVP with his power potential. He's barreling up the ball when he makes contact at double league rate, normally people who hit the ball that hard have higher BABIP than .280 and his lifetime average is .315. So, to some extent, he's had bad luck.

 

I think he's going to be a streaky hitter, in the same form that Jackie Bradley was, he's going to have months when just goes on a tear and hits 10+ home runs. Unfortunately, he's likely the odd man out in a year or two when Casas is ready.

 

I'm still a huge Dalbec fan and supporter. His OBP was always very good in the minors, and I hope he can regain that in the bigs.

 

I'm fine with him hitting .225 and striking our 50% of the time, if he gets on base over .340 and hits 35+ bombs per 650 PAs- platoon or otherwise.

[oldtimer]

I'm actually pretty high on Dalbec, which is weird because I was low on him when everyone else seemingly was high on him. I think he needs time to adjust, and I think he has the talent level to justify it, if Santana can hit in replacement of Francy it's going to take a little bit of pressure off of him too.

 

He's never going to be a .300 hitter, if his hit tool ever took that big a leap he'd be the MVP with his power potential. He's barreling up the ball when he makes contact at double league rate, normally people who hit the ball that hard have higher BABIP than .280 and his lifetime average is .315. So, to some extent, he's had bad luck.

 

I think he's going to be a streaky hitter, in the same form that Jackie Bradley was, he's going to have months when just goes on a tear and hits 10+ home runs. Unfortunately, he's likely the odd man out in a year or two when Casas is ready.

 

Dalbec's problem appears to be pitch recognition. He backs himself into a hole by taking fastballs and changeups early in the count and then swinging at balls off the plate. He no doubt is getting coaching to help him with that, but like Chavis is having problems adjusting. As Moon mentions, Casas is knocking on the door with a better hit tool and natural power and is a first baseman. His issue is lack of experience at even the AAA level. Still, if Dalbec continues to look lost at the plate, Casas may get his chance. If so, it might not happen until September with Dalbec platooned until then.

 

The Sox excellent start this year has made me anxious for them to work on their weak spots, including the outfield, first base and relief pitching. If they are reluctant to exceed the CBT limit this year, it leaves only a small list in the prospect pool who offer much hope of improving the team. Duran, Casas, Bazardo, Brasier and Sale are the leading candidates to do that. Does the Sox management really believe they can be contenders this year? I wonder.

[moonslav59]

Dalbec does look "lost at the plate" often. His K rate is one of the highest on the team. His good OBP in the minors has not transferred over to the bigs (yet?).

 

He does have some real big hits for the team and when he does make contact he hits it harder than everyone, except Bogey and marwin:

 

LD%

32% Bogey

28% Marwin

27% Dalbec

 

I like to look at the positive:

 

He brought his OPS from .507 to .650 in just a couple weeks.

 

His career OPS in MLB is .767, which is not bad for a player's first 235 ML PAs.

 

I'm not trying to negate the bad. I am thinking platoon at some point, myself.

 

 

[moonslav59]

Last night in AAA, Brandon Workman was a bright spot out of the bullpen, striking out a pair in a perfect sixth inning and throwing 11 of 13 pitches for strikes.

[iortiz]

Dalbec does look "lost at the plate" often. His K rate is one of the highest on the team. His good OBP in the minors has not transferred over to the bigs (yet?).

 

He does have some real big hits for the team and when he does make contact he hits it harder than everyone, except Bogey and marwin:

 

LD%

32% Bogey

28% Marwin

27% Dalbec

 

I like to look at the positive:

 

He brought his OPS from .507 to .650 in just a couple weeks.

 

His career OPS in MLB is .767, which is not bad for a player's first 235 ML PAs.

 

I'm not trying to negate the bad. I am thinking platoon at some point, myself.

 

 

IMO he need to play a couple seasons daily in order to develop his discipline at plate.

 

IMO his cap is something around 240/330/850

[Kimmi]

They have tomorrow off. It’s worse for the fans.

 

This fan went to bed as soon as the tarp came on the field. LOL

[Kimmi]

I just woke up (4:26 am) and had to check the score. Almost a 3 hour delay. I know that rain is unpredictable but they surely saw this coming. Umpire ("Looks like rain is coming, we'll go as long as we can but once we stop play, you guys have 90 minutes to resume play or I'm calling it"....wouldn't that be better?)

 

It depends. If the Sox are down by 1 run, I want the chance to come back and win the game.

[Nick]

I would at least be sergeant at arms for Dalbec fan club. That said, if we have chance to make the playoffs, I'm all for doing what's necessary (except trading big prospect for a rental). If he needs to be platooned, so be it.

[Nick]

Rays win again.

 

You have to give them credit. Luxury tax payroll of $83M. Highest paid player makes $8.9M, second highest $6.5M, third highest $4.0M.

 

Is their payroll low due to lack of revenue? Is their attendance low due to lack of 'star' names?

 

It will be interesting to watch Bloom navigate Red Sox player management. I would think he did couple of back flips when told payroll budget was near the luxury tax but you can go over it from time to time. Couple of roundoffs for that bit of news.

Edited May 28, 2021 by Nick

[moonslav59]

IMO he need to play a couple seasons daily in order to develop his discipline at plate.

 

IMO his cap is something around 240/330/850

 

.850 would be awesome.

 

He’s getting a bit old to think he needs 2 full seasons more. I don’t think his leash is that long.

 

To be honest, I really thought this would be the perfect season to give long looks for Dalbec, Chavis and others, so we can know who to keep and who to move on from and make room for our top prospects.

 

This winning has messed all our plans up.

[Larry Cook]

Last night in AAA, Brandon Workman was a bright spot out of the bullpen, striking out a pair in a perfect sixth inning and throwing 11 of 13 pitches for strikes.

 

I would not mind seeing workman brought up to the majors after a couple more good innings of work at triple a!

 

Andriese is running on empty and we never replaced Brice.

[mvp 78]

Rays win again.

 

You have to give them credit. Luxury tax payroll of $83M. Highest paid player makes $8.9M, second highest $6.5M, third highest $4.0M.

 

Is their payroll low due to lack of revenue? Is their attendance low due to lack of 'star' names?

 

It will be interesting to watch Bloom navigate Red Sox player management. I would think he did couple of back flips when told payroll budget was near the luxury tax but you can go over it from time to time. Couple of roundoffs for that bit of news.

 

Their attendance is low due to ballpark location and the population surrounding it. They do have very good tv ratings. It's not that people don't care about the team.

[oldtimer]

.850 would be awesome.

 

He’s getting a bit old to think he needs 2 full seasons more. I don’t think his leash is that long.

 

To be honest, I really thought this would be the perfect season to give long looks for Dalbec, Chavis and others, so we can know who to keep and who to move on from and make room for our top prospects.

 

This winning has messed all our plans up.

 

ML BB is a tough business. Players are constantly competing for their position. So it is with Dalbec, Chavis and all the others. When they get outcompeted they are at risk of being sent down. traded or even find themselves out of baseball altogether. The situation is always dynamic and all players at the ML level can do at least some things well. It's up to them to make adjustments and prove their worth. If they are unable to, sadly they are gone.

[mvp 78]

ML BB is a tough business. Players are constantly competing for their position. So it is with Dalbec, Chavis and all the others. When they get outcompeted they are at risk of being sent down. traded or even find themselves out of baseball altogether. The situation is always dynamic and all players at the ML level can do at least some things well. It's up to them to make adjustments and prove their worth. If they are unable to, sadly they are gone.

 

It's not sad, it's great. The circle of life. New players that fans can beat up on.

[moonslav59]

ML BB is a tough business. Players are constantly competing for their position. So it is with Dalbec, Chavis and all the others. When they get outcompeted they are at risk of being sent down. traded or even find themselves out of baseball altogether. The situation is always dynamic and all players at the ML level can do at least some things well. It's up to them to make adjustments and prove their worth. If they are unable to, sadly they are gone.

 

This is all true. Where some of us seem to run into disagreement on is how long of a sample size do you give/need?

 

I tend to want longer sample sizes than most here, but I'm not claiming to know more than anyone else. I may disagree with team management on some decisions or choices, but I trust they know more than I do.

 

For a player like Cordero, who has "all the tools" and has shown some success is very scattered and small samples sizes over several year, couples with the fact that last season was one giant cluster-you-know-what, probably deserved an extra long look and chance to find a groove or show what he can do. As much as it hurt the team, with AAA not playing in April, he was kind of locked into the 26 man roster. I still think he can work his way back to the big club over the length of the team control we have on him. What he does in the minors may determine his ability to stay on the 40 man roster once the 5-6 rule 5 players are added in December.

 

Chavis has some decent numbers in the bigs, spread out over 3 seasons, despite the high K rate and seemingly an inability to fix the holes in his swing. Once can argue his career numbers are fueled by a couple hot streaks in his career, but that can be said about a lot of players with samples sizes under 650. I was hoping he'd get an extra long look this year- not really because I think he'll be great or even good, but mostly so we can determine if he deserves a roster spot going forward. I hate holding onto AAAA type players, always wondering if they coulda been more, while taking up a roster space of someone more promising. If possible, find out what they got and move on. The 2021 season seemed perfect for this idea, until we started off winnings so much.

 

Dalbec is a hard cookie to evaluate. His high OBP and power in the minors is not something you see often in a guy who K's 25-30% of the time. High OBP does not always translate to the bigs, and it hasn't really all that much, so far with Dalbec, but he doesn't even have 250 ML PAs, yet, and those 237 PAs are spread over 2 seasons. To me, he deserves a very long look, but with a team looking to make the playoffs, that is not always easy to do, when the guy is struggling vs RHPs so much. If you straight platoon him, now, he'll never be able to work on his swing vs righties- something he needs to do to become a solid player, and something we need to know if he can learn sooner rather than later. The guy is older than Verdugo and Devers. I'm not sure more time in the minors will tell us anything more than what we already know.

 

I'd have no problem with the Sox letting all these three go, if I felt they all had a legitimate chance to prove they belong. I don't think any have, yet.

 

I also don't think any are playing well enough, right now, to be FT players on a playoff team. Dalbec is vs LHPs, and I thought Chavis was looking okay in a very small sample size, but Santana looks better and Kike & Arroyo returned, so that was that.

 

I hope Chavis and Cordero do well in AAA, and Dalbec makes the adjustments needed to stick around, but the more these guys play, the more we'll know.

[moonslav59]

It's not sad, it's great. The circle of life. New players that fans can beat up on.

 

I'd give my left nut, and maybe even the right one, for just one brief stint in the bigs.

 

Agreed- not sad.