A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[Kimmi]

I am as diehard as anyone . But some do get a little carried away. After Barnes gave up a bloop single to Trout and a Pesky pole shot to Ohtani ( two pretty fair hitters , by the way ) , one guy called it " a massive choke job. "

 

No doubt that some fans get carried away. I had to stop posting in the game threads for this very reason.

[harmony]

And what were their numbers in March?

On March 31 FanGraphs had the Red Sox postseason chances at 38.9 percent:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds?date=2021-03-31&dateDelta=

[moonslav59]

I’d say somewhere between 32 and 53 seems about right.

[Bellhorn04]

On the bullpen front, Marcus Walden and Kaleb Ort are both off to very good starts with the WooSox.

 

We almost need a WooSox thread now.

[moonslav59]

On the bullpen front, Marcus Walden and Kaleb Ort are both off to very good starts with the WooSox.

 

We almost need a WooSox thread now.

 

It’s pretty amazing we’ve basically gone with the 14 pitchers we started the season with. Not having an active AAA for April may have played a role, but if we didn’t keep Bazardo up, we likely wanted the 14.

 

Houck got a couple starts and relief outings in, but he’s injured, now.

 

I’m sure we’ll see other pitchers before season’s end, and hopefully we see a healthy and productive Chris freakin’ Sale, but so far we’ve done pretty good avoiding pitcher injuries or clear needs for replacements, except for maybe Brice.

[moonslav59]

So, Kike at 2B and Marwin in the OF or vice versa?.

[Bellhorn04]

So, Kike at 2B and Marwin in the OF or vice versa?.

 

Kike in the John Fogerty song.

[notin]

Kike in the John Fogerty song.

 

 

So Kike’s gonna be down on the corner?

[moonslav59]

I haven't really seen the plus defense in CF by Kike, despite his UZR/150 numbers showing he was pretty good out there.

 

(Saw a nice catch by JBJ in LF, the other night, on some highlights.)

[mvp 78]

Taylor did very well in 47.1 IP in 2019.

 

.642 OPS against

1.183 WHIP

3.11 FIP

11.8 K/9

 

Let's hope he can come close to those numbers, this year.

 

 

I think COVID played a significant role in Taylor's struggles. He was productive in 2019. Sucked after coming back from COVID in 2020 and sucked his first few outings in 2021. He seems to be better now.

[mvp 78]

I haven't really seen the plus defense in CF by Kike, despite his UZR/150 numbers showing he was pretty good out there.

 

(Saw a nice catch by JBJ in LF, the other night, on some highlights.)

 

He runs "unique" routes to flyballs.

[notin]

I think COVID played a significant role in Taylor's struggles. He was productive in 2019. Sucked after coming back from COVID in 2020 and sucked his first few outings in 2021. He seems to be better now.

 

It's very likely.

 

It was a tough call because despite his good 2019, it was also really just a small sample so we had no idea if it was the true Taylor or not....

[moonslav59]

Here are some notable SP'er ERA-'s for 2021: (below 100 is above average)

 

246 Matt Moore

216 Logan Allen

208 J Quintana

155 Strasburg

152 Corbin

134 A Cobb

131 Taillon

128 JA Happ

126 K Maeda

115 J Montgomery

108 B Snell

107 R Hill

105 Greinke

104 Eovaldi

103 Bumgarner

96 ERod

94 S Gray

93 J Lester

90 Richards

90 W Miley

89 R Ray

88 D German

84 C Kluber

79 M Perez

74 J Musgrove

73 Pivetta

71 Wheeler

71 V Velazquez

67 M Pineda

59 Glasnow

58 M Boyd

55 M Kopech

54 T Walker

49 G Cole

48 Gausman

47 Y Darvish

46 D Duffy

45 Alex Wood

32 L Lynn

29 J Means

18 J deGrom

 

RP'ers

214 C Mazza

178 W Davis

166 S Romo

161 Brice

143 J Wilson

137 J Taylor

134 D Bard

132 J McGee

124 T Richards

118 A Colome

114 S Cishek

106 T Lakins

102 G Holland

101 D Hern

89 Ottavino

77 J Springs

75 Famila

68 P Valdez

68 L Hendricks

66 B Hand

62 M Barnes

52 E Santana

45 J Payamps (Why can't Bloom find guys like him?)

42 B Shaw

41 Whitlock

14 Chatwood

0 Chapman, Graveman, Holloway

 

 

 

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

So Kike’s gonna be down on the corner?

 

He's never seen rain.

[notin]

He's never seen rain.

 

Sure he has, back when he was born on the bayou...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Sure he has, back when he was born on the bayou...

 

Was that where he met Suzie Q-Anon?

[notin]

Was that where he met Suzie Q-Anon?

 

And now you ruined it...

[mvp 78]

It's very likely.

 

It was a tough call because despite his good 2019, it was also really just a small sample so we had no idea if it was the true Taylor or not....

 

It's hard to say what he really is. I think we have our answer on what DHern is atm.

[mvp 78]

And now you ruined it...

 

It's fine. If you want to you can keep on chooglin'.

[moonslav59]

I think COVID played a significant role in Taylor's struggles. He was productive in 2019. Sucked after coming back from COVID in 2020 and sucked his first few outings in 2021. He seems to be better now.

 

Sounds about right, but he did only have the one good season in 2019, so to me, the jury is still out.

 

I'm happy to see him doing well. I was wrong to be so harsh on him in April.

[mvp 78]

Sounds about right, but he did only have the one good season in 2019, so to me, the jury is still out.

 

I'm happy to see him doing well. I was wrong to be so harsh on him in April.

 

I agree that there are still question marks around him.

[moonslav59]

We need someone to step up, real soon. Maybe Valdez and Taylor are in the process of doing just that, right now.

[mvp 78]

Sox Pitching:

 

All - 4th fWAR

Starters - 5th fWAR

Relievers - 3rd fWAR

 

Sox Batting:

 

4th in fWAR

 

Seems kinda good so far?

[mvp 78]

@FoolishBB

Hitter fWAR since 2019

 

1) Mike Trout 13.5 fWAR

2) Xander Bogaerts 11.0 fWAR

3) Mookie Betts 10.8 fWAR

4) Alex Bregman 10.7 fWAR

5) Marcus Semien 10.3 fWAR

[Bellhorn04]

So Kike’s gonna be down on the corner?

 

John Fogerty the solo artist.

[moonslav59]

Let's talk lefty-righty splits, platoons and call-ups...

 

Players like JD, Devrs, Bogey, Verdugo and Vaz/Plawecki will never be platooned. They may be strategically given their day of rest vs an off-handed pitcher, but they are everyday players.

 

Players like Arroyo, Marwin, Santana and Duran seem to hit both sides nearly the same. Arroyo actually has a revers career split.

 

Career (2021)

v RHP/ v LHP

.676 (.668)/ .629 (773) Arroyo

.726 (.595)/ .723 (.697) Marwin

.727 (n/a) /.694 (n/a) Santana

 

These players have significant career splits:

vs RHP/ vs LHP

.650/1.034 Dalbec (.459/1.016 in 2021)

.702/.553 Cordero (.451/.432 in 2021)

.707/.903 Renfroe (.590/.788 in 2021)

.677/.815 Kike (.731/.706 in 2021)

Minors:

.898/.534 Ockimey in 2019

.968/.586 Ockimey in 2018

 

The Cordero-Renfroe platoon has been talked about a lot, but Cordero may be sent down, soon. That leaves Kike or Marwin as "platoon" choices for Renfroe, unless we call up Santana or Duran and add them to the mix.

 

The first base position offers another platoon choice: Marwin vs RHPs or call up Ockimey or Santana to play 1B vs most RHPs. Or, we just give Dalbec a longer look vs righties.

 

Kike's .677 career OPS vs RHPs is not really bad enough to need a platoon, but Arroyo at 2B and Marwin, Duran or Santana in the OF might offer a better choice vs righties.

 

Basically,

Renfroe should not start vs a RHP.

Cordero should not start vs a LHP.

Dalbec needs to be watched closely vs RHPs.

 

Dalbec, Renfroe & Kike need to play everyday vs LHPs

[notin]

John Fogerty the solo artist.

 

But he wrote most of the CCR songs, and when he became a solo artist, was unsuccessfully sued by his former record label for - get this - sounding too much like John Fogerty. True story...

[moonslav59]

But he wrote most of the CCR songs, and when he became a solo artist, was unsuccessfully sued by his former record label for - get this - sounding too much like John Fogerty. True story...

 

That was really something!

 

https://www.mentalfloss.com/article/27501/time-john-fogerty-was-sued-ripping-john-fogerty

[moonslav59]

The Sox team is ranked 3rd in 2B UZR/150 at +5.4. (+4 DRS T for 4th)

4th in RF +17.6 (1st in DRA +7)

4th in LF +15.3 (+3 DRS)

18th at 3B +1.2 (0 DRS- 18th)

21st at SS -3.7 (-5 DRS -27th)

23rd at 1B -3.4 (-4 DRS)

27th in CF -12.4 (-1 DRS)

 

Overall: 5th at +7.3

13th in DRA +10

 

Surprised?

 

[moonslav59]

Runs

217 BOS

216 HOU & CWS

208 CIN & LAD

199 COL

22. NYY 164

 

1st in OPS .772 (Yanks are 19th at .701)

3rd in wRC+ 112 (Yanks are 10th at 100)

29th in BB% 7.5% (6th lowest K% at 22.5%

2nd in BAbip .314