A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[moonslav59]

The Christians, reportedly, have never cared for Steve Lyons.

 

Nor, Heathen Hembree.

[moonslav59]

Our 2-3-4-5 hitters:

 

Verdugo - Thanks Bloom!

JDM - Thanks Dave!

Bogey - Thanks Theo!

Raffy - Thanks Ben!

 

Barnes- Thanks Theo!

ERod- Thanks Ben!

Houck (Sale)- Thanks Dave!

Whitlock- Thanks Bloom!

[Bellhorn04]

Nor, Heathen Hembree.

 

Well done.

[Elktonnick]

Well done.

 

Question for all to ponder: how will.the collapse of the proposed Soccer super league initiative affect the Red Sox? The collapse was a humiliating defeat for John Henry. Does this mean that Henry will give Bloom the green light to spend and ignore any lux tax?

[moonslav59]

Question for all to ponder: how will.the collapse of the proposed Soccer super league initiative affect the Red Sox? The collapse was a humiliating defeat for John Henry. Does this mean that Henry will give Bloom the green light to spend and ignore any lux tax?

 

Next winter, yes.

[moonslav59]

11.2 Andriese 1.54

11.1 Whitlock 0.00

11.0 Barnes 3.27

10.0 Sawamura 1.80

9.0 Valdez 2.00

(Good to see our top 5 pitchers by IP are also doing the best.)

 

7.1 Ottavino 4.91

7.0 DHern 5.14

6.2 Taylor 10.80

5.2 Brice 4.76

(Taylor & Brice's days may be numbered.)

 

1.0 Houck 0.00

1.0 Bazardo 0.00

(Maybe these two will see more action from the pen going forward.)

 

 

[Elktonnick]

Next winter, yes.

Sooner if the Sox are still contending.this Julyy

[jacksonianmarch]

Sooner if the Sox are still contending.this Julyy

 

You don’t punt on a good team. Too early to tell if the Sox are good. They’ve had a good month for sure. If they’re in line for a PO spot, I bet Henry forces them to add at the deadline

[notin]

Question for all to ponder: how will.the collapse of the proposed Soccer super league initiative affect the Red Sox? The collapse was a humiliating defeat for John Henry. Does this mean that Henry will give Bloom the green light to spend and ignore any lux tax?

 

I doubt Sox fans notice a difference. We’re still among the highest spending teams.

 

And the tax thing is linked to the current CBA, which is short term.

 

But even if Henry “ignored the tax” (which he already does until the penalty gets to its highest limit), and ups the payroll to $1 billion, will we still have Sox fans who insist he’s cheap?

[Elktonnick]

I doubt Sox fans notice a difference. We’re still among the highest spending teams.

 

And the tax thing is linked to the current CBA, which is short term.

 

But even if Henry “ignored the tax” (which he already does until the penalty gets to its highest limit), and ups the payroll to $1 billion, will we still have Sox fans who insist he’s cheap?

 

Because of his involvement in the super league many Sox fans in Boston noticed that Henry was largely mia the past 18 months. The league's collapse was a huge humiliation for Henry. I suspect he will do something to recoup from that defeat. It could well be spending big if that is what it takes to bring another title to Boston if the team still is in it come July.

[notin]

Because of his involvement in the super league many Sox fans in Boston noticed that Henry was largely mia the past 18 months. The league's collapse was a huge humiliation for Henry. I suspect he will do something to recoup from that defeat. It could well be spending big if that is what it takes to bring another title to Boston if the team still is in it come July.

 

I doubt it has any impact.

 

The Sox are already a huge spending team. What other team has a payroll north of $175 million during rebuilding years?

 

And July really isn’t a “spending” month; it’s a trading month. He might take on a questionable contract, but Bloom had to give something up for it (re: outbid other teams with MiLB players) if it’s anyone worthwhile. And even then, it’s likely a short term player, like Scherzer (assuming the Nats don’t right the ship)...

Edited April 24, 2021 by notin

[moonslav59]

Sooner if the Sox are still contending.this Julyy

 

I doubt we go over, even if in the race. We have a a little buffer zone to add $4.5M. That's actually a significanat amount when you factor in we only pay about 1/3 of a player's salary.

 

We may also find a way to dump a modest contract (like Ottavino or Richards) while picking up another more useful one or two in another deal.

 

We may end up wishing we never made the Ottavino deal.

 

I think we stay under the tax line, so we can extend our future window by a year. I could be wrong, but that's my take.

[moonslav59]

I doubt Sox fans notice a difference. We’re still among the highest spending teams.

 

And the tax thing is linked to the current CBA, which is short term.

 

But even if Henry “ignored the tax” (which he already does until the penalty gets to its highest limit), and ups the payroll to $1 billion, will we still have Sox fans who insist he’s cheap?

 

Henry does not totally ignore the lower lux tax line. He has a long history of re-setting the tax, even when it looked like we might be one or two costly players away from being even more serious contenders.

 

We stayed under in 2003 and re-set in 2008, stayed under in 2009, reset in 2012, stayed under in 2013 & 2014, reset in 2017 and again in 2020.

 

Since the 2004-2007 run of paying a lux tax, we have never gone more than 2 years in a row, so yes, he avoids the big 3rd year tax bigtime, but he never even goes slightly over year 3, which wouldn't be a big tax.

 

I remember that 2012-2014 period, where we went 3 straight years without paying any taxes. Ben's budget was very limited compared to other GMs, but we still managed to win a ring in 2013. Many fans were upset we didn't spend more (and more).

[moonslav59]

I doubt it has any impact.

 

The Sox are already a huge spending team. What other team has a payroll north of $175 million during rebuilding years?

 

And July really isn’t a “spending” month; it’s a trading month. He might take on a questionable contract, but Bloom had to give something up for it (re: outbid other teams with MiLB players) if it’s anyone worthwhile. And even then, it’s likely a short term player, like Scherzer (assuming the Nats don’t right the ship)...

 

Sometimes you can get a decent player who is paid a lot and will be a FA in 2 months for pretty cheap- certainly not Scherzer, but we'll have $4.5M to "play with" in adding pro-rated contracts via trades.

 

I seriously doubt we trade good young talent for anybody at the deadline. This year is more about bridging to 2022 and beyond. We won't trade anyone that is viewed as part of future Sox teams.

 

We might trade a Chavis or someone we give up on- maybe a Groome or Ward type, but if we are giving up on someone, I doubt another GM covets him.

[Nick]

Sometimes you can get a decent player who is paid a lot and will be a FA in 2 months for pretty cheap- certainly not Scherzer, but we'll have $4.5M to "play with" in adding pro-rated contracts via trades.

 

I seriously doubt we trade good young talent for anybody at the deadline. This year is more about bridging to 2022 and beyond. We won't trade anyone that is viewed as part of future Sox teams.

 

We might trade a Chavis or someone we give up on- maybe a Groome or Ward type, but if we are giving up on someone, I doubt another GM covets him.

 

I'm opposed to trading away any young pieces.

 

Also no trades until all of our options are exhausted.

 

Option 1 Tanner Houck

Option 2 Garrett Whitlock

Option 3 Duran

 

We're not playing our best players. Why in the hell we'd trade for more?

 

Kike is not a solid hitter. He does not make hard contacts.

[moonslav59]

I'm opposed to trading away any young pieces.

 

Also no trades until all of our options are exhausted.

 

Option 1 Tanner Houck

Option 2 Garrett Whitlock

Option 3 Duran

 

We're not playing our best players. Why in the hell we'd trade for more?

 

Kike is not a solid hitter. He does not make hard contacts.

 

It's been 3 weeks.

 

Anyone deserving a chance will get a long look, this year.

 

Kike is having a hard time, but 3 weeks does not define who he is, and besides, his weakness is not hitting the ball softly. It's just plain hitting it and not walking enough for a leadoff hitter. He's actually 23rd in MLB in XBHs, this year, and has above average power for a 2Bman.

 

He has 60 XBHs in his last 638 ABs.

[moonslav59]

 

We're not playing our best players.

 

How can you be so sure Duran and others are better than what we have?

 

Yes, maybe better than sub .500, but there's no way anyone can expect Cordero, Renfroe and others to keep hitting as poorly as they have in less than this 70-90 PA sample size.

[a700hitter]

Kike is a utility player with a low OBP. That’s who he is as defined by his career. All of his “energy” will not change that fact. Personally, I’d rather have signed Holt for what he signed for with the Brewers.

[moonslav59]

 

The Sox are already a huge spending team. What other team has a payroll north of $175 million during rebuilding years?

 

I agree and have said very similar things, but this player salary budget includes a lot of deadwood. Others did in the past, too, but I'm not sure if it was ever more than this:

 

$25M Sale (for part of the season, anyway)

$16M Price

$13.8 Pedey

$2.8 Beni

 

That's about $57M out of the $190 spent on player salaries.

 

30%

 

[mvp 78]

After every loss, you guys become irrational.

[moonslav59]

Kike is a utility player with a low OBP. That’s who he is as defined by his career. All of his “energy” will not change that fact. Personally, I’d rather have signed Holt for what he signed for with the Brewers.

 

I expected better D, but the sample size is small.

[moonslav59]

After every loss, you guys become irrational.

 

Never fails.

 

Even if we win 20 in a row. first.

[a700hitter]

I think Renfroe /Beni would have been a much better platoon, both offensively and defensively.

[moonslav59]

I think Renfroe /Beni would have been a much better platoon, both offensively and defensively.

 

Maybe defensively, a little bit, but we did also save some cap space and have 3 PTBNLs to get.

 

Also, Beni is hitting .636 v RHPs, this year and has an over OPS of .546 in his last 123 PAs ('19-'20).

 

Franchi is at .673 his last 108 PAs ('18-'20). He's not off to a good start v RHPs, so far this year (.535), but he hit over .800 against them, last year.

 

I'll still take Franchy, the $2.5M saved, this year (likely even more next year) and the 3 PTBNLs over Beni.

[a700hitter]

Maybe defensively, a little bit, but we did also save some cap space and have 3 PTBNLs to get.

 

Also, Beni is hitting .636 v RHPs, this year and has an over OPS of .546 in his last 123 PAs ('19-'20).

 

Franchi is at .673 his last 108 PAs ('18-'20). He's not off to a good start v RHPs, so far this year (.535), but he hit over .800 against them, last year.

 

I'll still take Franchy, the $2.5M saved, this year (likely even more next year) and the 3 PTBNLs over Beni.

I think the stats will support me as the season progresses.

[notin]

I think Renfroe /Beni would have been a much better platoon, both offensively and defensively.

 

We could have hD Benintendi’s .608 OPS instead of Cordero’s .545?

 

It’s an improvement, but a slight one at best...

[moonslav59]

I think the stats will support me as the season progresses.

 

They might, and I would not bet against Beni v Cordero, but the deal was much more than just those two.

 

(I know you weren't saying anything more than just having Beni vs Franchy in a platoon for 2021.)

[moonslav59]

Here's a look at how well some of the players that could have been signed, this past winter, to play 2B, LF & CF:

 

2B (Arroyo.852)

.926 Brad Miller

.863 Jed Lowrie

.841 Adam Frazier (trade talk)

.755 J Villar

.748 K Wong

.721 Kike

.698 T La Stella

.692 Marwin

.682 M Semien

.667 Joe Panik

.575 R Odor (DFA deal)

.569 Cesar Hernandez

.459 J Schoop

 

OF

.905 Marisnick

(.608 Beni)

.608 JBJ

.573 Rosario

.568 Ozuna

.545 Cordero

.512 Renfroe

.498 Joc Pederson

 

[moonslav59]

It's easy to think this Sox team has been playing over its head and will come crashing down to earth in due time. I'm not denying that won't happen or can't happen, but it's not like anyone can say "everything has been going right" for us.

 

We have a lot of players under performing against their career or most recent numbers.

 

Renfroe: .767 career > .512 now

 

Cordero .737 career before 2021> .545 now

 

Plawecki .655 career & .708 ('17-'20)> .471 now

 

Marwin: .729 career & .771 ('17-'20)> .680 now

 

Vaz: .798 ('19-'20) > .701 now

 

Kike: .749 ('18-'20)> .721 now

 

Yes, we have 5 guys hitting at or above their norms, but this is not like 2013, so far.

 

[jacksonianmarch]

You have guys who are so damn hot right now it’s almost comical. Don’t give the “some of the team isn’t hot” argument. Vaz is around career norms. The rest of the trash you noted are just that, trash. Once JD remembers he’s on planet earth and Bogey comes back a bit, the offense will struggle. Today you got an offense that was handled by a 30 yr old coming back from Korea and Bad Nate decided to show his face. Nate also had a drop in velo today, which makes you wonder if he just didn’t have it or if (as his history shows) he’s got an injury.

 

The Sox are fading as expected after their uncanny 9 in a row run. It’s a long season. The response to the fade will be telling for the Sox team. Do they become the 4 wins in 10 team they were predicted to be, or can they be more the 85-90 win team some of you hoped they’d be?