A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[jacksonianmarch]

Devers has always been awful early on. In 2019, he started off slow then went on a tear. Heck, he did the same last year before the season ended prematurely due to covid. He has a special bat, you just need a place to hide his glove

[moonslav59]

The 4 game sample size looks very bad for the offense.

 

OPS

1.722 JD

1.045 Vaz

The rest are under .700

 

Under .400

.382 Renfroe

.325 Verdugo

.091 Dalbec

.083 Devers

 

notin's favorite stat: RBI (sarcasm alert)

6 JD

2 Cordero, Kike, Verdugo

1 Marwin, Bogey, Renfroe

 

WHIP (IP)

0.00 Valdez (3.0), Brice (1.2)

0.90 Whitlock (3.1)

0.938 Eovaldi (5.1)

1.000 Barnes (1.0)

 

1.200 Pivetta (5.0)

 

1.400 Houck (5.0)

1.500 Sawamura (2.0)

 

1.750 Andriese (4.0)

 

3.00 Ottavino (1.1), D Hern (1.1)

 

4.50 Richards (2.0)

 

9.00 Taylor (1.0)

 

ERA:

 

0.00: Pivetta, Whitlock, Valdez, Brice, Sawamura, Barnes

1.69: Eovaldi

3.60 Houck

4.50 Andriese

6.75 DHern, Ottavino

27.00 Richards

45.00 Taylor

[Nick]

Tidbits

 

3 out of 4 starts have been acceptable.

 

Little concerning with Richards. Not sure I liked his comment about "I threw some good pitches".......perhaps, but you threw several bad pitches.

 

I wouldn't mind seeing Houck start another game.

 

Let's see if Pivetta can stay in the rotation for entire year.

 

More and more I read about Whitlock, I'm intrigued. I can see Bloom doing the Rays thing with him. That is eventually extending him to become a starter.

 

I think Cora is FORCING something that's not there. I know he wants Kike to leadoff but maybe that's not his best spot. It's early.

 

To me this is typical Red Sox offense. Dormant for 3 out 4 games but cumulatively right in the thick of runs scored category in AL East. We feast on bad pitching at Fenway to bring up the offensive stats.

[jacksonianmarch]

Whitlock is very interesting. As a Yankee prospect follower, he was always a guy who outperformed his draft position and stuff ticked up as he rose. Then he blew out his UCL and the Yanks didnt 40 man him, hence how he made it to you. He was an innings eating starter in the minors, but you dont have a spot for him in the rotation as of yet. I do think he can end up being a good starter on a big league squad, but I didnt realize his stuff ticked up even more post TJS. Shame on the Yanks for not rostering him. He was chucking 97 mph 2 seamers the other day. If that stuff stays and plays, the sox would have little choice but to get him into the rotation

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The 4 game sample size looks very bad for the offense.

 

OPS

1.722 JD

1.045 Vaz

The rest are under .700

 

Under .400

.382 Renfroe

.325 Verdugo

.091 Dalbec

.083 Devers

 

notin's favorite stat: RBI (sarcasm alert)

6 JD

2 Cordero, Kike, Verdugo

1 Marwin, Bogey, Renfroe

 

WHIP (IP)

0.00 Valdez (3.0), Brice (1.2)

0.90 Whitlock (3.1)

0.938 Eovaldi (5.1)

1.000 Barnes (1.0)

 

1.200 Pivetta (5.0)

 

1.400 Houck (5.0)

1.500 Sawamura (2.0)

 

1.750 Andriese (4.0)

 

3.00 Ottavino (1.1), D Hern (1.1)

 

4.50 Richards (2.0)

 

9.00 Taylor (1.0)

 

ERA:

 

0.00: Pivetta, Whitlock, Valdez, Brice, Sawamura, Barnes

1.69: Eovaldi

3.60 Houck

4.50 Andriese

6.75 DHern, Ottavino

27.00 Richards

45.00 Taylor

 

I appreciate WHIP, but after watching the past weekend I now think it's a stat best considered in the context of each team's defense. In other words, WHIP can be helpful when comparing pitchers on the same staff, but it may unfair to compare WHIPs for guys with the '21 Red Sox defense playing behind them vs. say, the '71 Orioles D.

 

For instance, there were at least a couple hits charged to both Eovaldi and Houck that could have been called errors... or that quality big league glovemen would turn into outs. And of course, subsequent runs that scored on those plays also hurt their ERAs...

[mvp 78]

Whitlock is very interesting. As a Yankee prospect follower, he was always a guy who outperformed his draft position and stuff ticked up as he rose. Then he blew out his UCL and the Yanks didnt 40 man him, hence how he made it to you. He was an innings eating starter in the minors, but you dont have a spot for him in the rotation as of yet. I do think he can end up being a good starter on a big league squad, but I didnt realize his stuff ticked up even more post TJS. Shame on the Yanks for not rostering him. He was chucking 97 mph 2 seamers the other day. If that stuff stays and plays, the sox would have little choice but to get him into the rotation

 

Right now, he's a long reliever (very valuable IMO). Not sure he can go 5 innings right now, so they'll have to stretch him out this year. Maybe it's best post TJS to let him sit in the pen this year and start next?

[notin]

I appreciate WHIP, but after watching the past weekend I now think it's a stat best considered in the context of each team's defense. In other words, WHIP can be helpful when comparing pitchers on the same staff, but it may unfair to compare WHIPs for guys with the '21 Red Sox defense playing behind them vs. say, the '71 Orioles D.

 

For instance, there were at least a couple hits charged to both Eovaldi and Houck that could have been called errors... or that quality big league glovemen would turn into outs. And of course, subsequent runs that scored on those plays also hurt their ERAs...

 

Many pitching stats are heavily dependent on defense. ERA is the same way. Better defenders can prevent runs by making more outs on batted balls within the park. Look at Arozarena last night, for example. Not like Wacha made a good pitch to Renfroe, and certainly not like Renfroe did not put a solid charge into that ball. But Arozarena made a great (re: unbelievable) play and probably saved a run or two. If the Rays had Phillips or Meadows out in RF, that ball goes for extra bases, and suddenly Wacha looks like a worse pitcher, when in reality he is the same Wacha.

 

That's the reason for FIP, which only considers outcomes a pitcher can control, or that are at least not impacted by defense - strikeouts, walks and home runs And one could argue home runs are also influenced by ballpark...

[moonslav59]

I appreciate WHIP, but after watching the past weekend I now think it's a stat best considered in the context of each team's defense. In other words, WHIP can be helpful when comparing pitchers on the same staff, but it may unfair to compare WHIPs for guys with the '21 Red Sox defense playing behind them vs. say, the '71 Orioles D.

 

For instance, there were at least a couple hits charged to both Eovaldi and Houck that could have been called errors... or that quality big league glovemen would turn into outs. And of course, subsequent runs that scored on those plays also hurt their ERAs...

 

Agreed. Sometimes WHIP can soften a harsh view someone has with a pitcher having a 5+ ERA. The reverse is true also.

 

OPS against might be better, but yes, team defense plays a big role in those numbers.

[moonslav59]

Right now, he's a long reliever (very valuable IMO). Not sure he can go 5 innings right now, so they'll have to stretch him out this year. Maybe it's best post TJS to let him sit in the pen this year and start next?

 

It's nice having Whitlock and Andriese in the pen. Both can go pretty long in one game or two innings every few days.

[moonslav59]

That's the reason for FIP, which only considers outcomes a pitcher can control, or that are at least not impacted by defense - strikeouts, walks and home runs And one could argue home runs are also influenced by ballpark...

 

FIP and xFIP have a lot of merit, but I've never liked how that stat devalues pitchers who consistently get players to hit the ball weakly for outs, often.

[notin]

Agreed. Sometimes WHIP can soften a harsh view someone has with a pitcher having a 5+ ERA. The reverse is true also.

 

OPS against might be better, but yes, team defense plays a big role in those numbers.

 

Evaluating pitchers is really always tricky because we always ignore a very big factor - the team the pitcher is on.

 

Depending on how the schedule plays out, Gerrit Cole could make up to 20% of his starts this year against the Orioles. He will face the Yankee lineup in 0% of his starts.

 

And John Means could make up to 20% of his starts against the Yankee lineup this year and will face the Orioles 0% of the time.

 

We all expect Cole to have much better numbers than Means this year, but would the gap be the same if these two pitchers were to trade places? How much better would Cole be under those circumstances?

 

So far, I think my favorite (yet still not without flaws) method for evaluating pitchers is to look at Zone % and Contact %. It answers the two simplest questions: 1) Is this pitcher throwing strikes? And 2) is anyone hitting them?

[mvp 78]

Evaluating pitchers is really always tricky because we always ignore a very big factor - the team the pitcher is on.

 

Depending on how the schedule plays out, Gerrit Cole could make up to 20% of his starts this year against the Orioles. He will face the Yankee lineup in 0% of his starts.

 

And John Means could make up to 20% of his starts against the Yankee lineup this year and will face the Orioles 0% of the time.

 

So we anticipate Means having better stats because he doesn't have to face the 1st place O's?

[notin]

FIP and xFIP have a lot of merit, but I've never liked how that stat devalues pitchers who consistently get players to hit the ball weakly for outs, often.

 

Yes it does not take "quality of contact" into consideration. Really it emphasizes strikeouts. But then, while weak contact is better, it can still go for hits and baserunners depending on defense. For example, Brad Keller was blooped and bled to death in his first start this year.

 

FIP tells you strikeouts are king. And really, they are. No defense. No runners (barring the rare dropped third strike). Three strikes and go sit down. While there have been many successful groundball and weak contact pitchers, how many pitchers have failed who excelled using the criteria for FIP - high K, low BB, low HR?

[notin]

So we anticipate Means having better stats because he doesn't have to face the 1st place O's?

 

Keep using the phrase "1st place O's" as many times as possible now while it is still accurate...

[Bellhorn04]

That's the reason for FIP, which only considers outcomes a pitcher can control, or that are at least not impacted by defense - strikeouts, walks and home runs And one could argue home runs are also influenced by ballpark...

 

Meanwhile Porcello still sits at home, despite a 3.33 FIP last year...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

 

So far, I think my favorite (yet still not without flaws) method for evaluating pitchers is to look at Zone % and Contact %. It answers the two simplest questions: 1) Is this pitcher throwing strikes? And 2) is anyone hitting them?

 

These make sense, but what accounts for movement of pitches? Like, why does Eovaldi sometimes get roped throwing 100 mph, and why can't the Sox hit Means at 83? Richards said he made good pitches the other day... then why did the O's rip his fastball and spin his spinners to beat the shift?

[Maxbialystock]

Tidbits

 

3 out of 4 starts have been acceptable.

 

Little concerning with Richards. Not sure I liked his comment about "I threw some good pitches".......perhaps, but you threw several bad pitches.

 

I wouldn't mind seeing Houck start another game.

 

Let's see if Pivetta can stay in the rotation for entire year.

 

More and more I read about Whitlock, I'm intrigued. I can see Bloom doing the Rays thing with him. That is eventually extending him to become a starter.

 

I think Cora is FORCING something that's not there. I know he wants Kike to leadoff but maybe that's not his best spot. It's early.

 

To me this is typical Red Sox offense. Dormant for 3 out 4 games but cumulatively right in the thick of runs scored category in AL East. We feast on bad pitching at Fenway to bring up the offensive stats.

 

I like that first sentence and was about to say something similar. That said, however, I think the cold weather in those games helped pitchers on both sides because the hitters looked like they were playing at Ice Station Zebra. On the other hand, Sox pitchers did well last night with the temp in the 50's.

[notin]

These make sense, but what accounts for movement of pitches? Like, why does Eovaldi sometimes get roped throwing 100 mph, and why can't the Sox hit Means at 83? Richards said he made good pitches the other day... then why did the O's rip his fastball and spin his spinners to beat the shift?

 

End of the day - strikes? Can they hit them?

 

Isn't that all that matters?

[mvp 78]

Keep using the phrase "1st place O's" as many times as possible now while it is still accurate...

 

Looking forward to Thursday morning when the Sox are in 1st place at 3 - 3 and the Yankees are in last place at 3 - 3.

[moonslav59]

Yes it does not take "quality of contact" into consideration. Really it emphasizes strikeouts. But then, while weak contact is better, it can still go for hits and baserunners depending on defense. For example, Brad Keller was blooped and bled to death in his first start this year.

 

FIP tells you strikeouts are king. And really, they are. No defense. No runners (barring the rare dropped third strike). Three strikes and go sit down. While there have been many successful groundball and weak contact pitchers, how many pitchers have failed who excelled using the criteria for FIP - high K, low BB, low HR?

 

Of course, low BB and HRs are great, but I think K's are over-rated, yet still valuable.

[moonslav59]

Meanwhile Porcello still sits at home, despite a 3.33 FIP last year...

 

Makes you wonder about GMs not using FIP as a gauge all that much.

[Maxbialystock]

Looking forward to Thursday morning when the Sox are in 1st place at 3 - 3 and the Yankees are in last place at 3 - 3.

 

A hit, a palpable hit.

[Maxbialystock]

Of course, low BB and HRs are great, but I think K's are over-rated, yet still valuable.

 

Team pitching staff K's vs. team ERA to date:

 

White Sox, 53 K's (most in MLB), ERA 3.61.

Angels, 52 K's, ERA 5.00

Padres, 51 K's, ERA 2.20

Phillies, 46 K's, ERA 1.46

Pirates, 45 K's, ERA 4.36

Reds, 44 K's, ERA 4.50

Brewers, 43 K's ERA 4.75

Jays, 43 K's, ERA 2.50

Twins, 42 K's, ERA 2.00

Yankees, 42 K's, ERA 1.70

Red Sox, 41 K's, ERA 4.50

 

I'm satisfied that moonslav is right to caution against K's. Interesting about the dingers, however. The Sox have given up none.

 

As for walks, right now I'd have to say that walks are more damaging than dingers and avoiding them is more valuable than getting K's--

 

Mets, 3 walks (best in MLB), ERA 2.25

Twins, 7 walks (2d best), ERA 2.00

Yankees, 9 walks (3d best), ERA 1.70

Phillies, 11 walks (tied for 4th best), ERA 1.46

Braves, 11 walks (tied for 4th best), ERA 2.81

Padres, 11 walks (tied for 4th best), ERA 2.20.

 

And here's the five MLB teams pitching staffs with the most BB's given up--

 

Angels, 21 walks, ERA 5.00

Rockies, 23 walks, ERA 5.75

Diamondbacks, 23 walks, ERA 4.91

Tigers, 24 walks, ERA 6.75

A's, 25 walks, ERA 8.60

[mvp 78]

I'm satisfied that moonslav is right to caution against K's. Interesting about the dingers, however. The Sox have given up none.

 

I can't imagine Fenway in April is a haven for the long ball.

[notin]

Team pitching staff K's vs. team ERA to date:

 

White Sox, 53 K's (most in MLB), ERA 3.61.

Angels, 52 K's, ERA 5.00

Padres, 51 K's, ERA 2.20

Phillies, 46 K's, ERA 1.46

Pirates, 45 K's, ERA 4.36

Reds, 44 K's, ERA 4.50

Brewers, 43 K's ERA 4.75

Jays, 43 K's, ERA 2.50

Twins, 42 K's, ERA 2.00

Yankees, 42 K's, ERA 1.70

Red Sox, 41 K's, ERA 4.50

 

I'm satisfied that moonslav is right to caution against K's. Interesting about the dingers, however. The Sox have given up none.

 

As for walks, right now I'd have to say that walks are more damaging than dingers and avoiding them is more valuable than getting K's--

 

Mets, 3 walks (best in MLB), ERA 2.25

Twins, 7 walks (2d best), ERA 2.00

Yankees, 9 walks (3d best), ERA 1.70

Phillies, 11 walks (tied for 4th best), ERA 1.46

Braves, 11 walks (tied for 4th best), ERA 2.81

Padres, 11 walks (tied for 4th best), ERA 2.20.

 

And here's the five MLB teams pitching staffs with the most BB's given up--

 

Angels, 21 walks, ERA 5.00

Rockies, 23 walks, ERA 5.75

Diamondbacks, 23 walks, ERA 4.91

Tigers, 24 walks, ERA 6.75

A's, 25 walks, ERA 8.60

 

But again, ERA is dependent on defense.

 

Walks are the worst. Let a guy hit the ball, even the best only reach 3-4 times out of 10. Walk him? 100% reach first...

[notin]

Of course, low BB and HRs are great, but I think K's are over-rated, yet still valuable.

 

K's are the best thing a pitcher can do. Everything else, and he needs help...

[dgalehouse]

Evaluating pitchers is really always tricky because we always ignore a very big factor - the team the pitcher is on.

 

Depending on how the schedule plays out, Gerrit Cole could make up to 20% of his starts this year against the Orioles. He will face the Yankee lineup in 0% of his starts.

 

And John Means could make up to 20% of his starts against the Yankee lineup this year and will face the Orioles 0% of the time.

 

We all expect Cole to have much better numbers than Means this year, but would the gap be the same if these two pitchers were to trade places? How much better would Cole be under those circumstances?

 

So far, I think my favorite (yet still not without flaws) method for evaluating pitchers is to look at Zone % and Contact %. It answers the two simplest questions: 1) Is this pitcher throwing strikes? And 2) is anyone hitting them?

 

The ultimate object is to win the game. Wins , saves and ERA are paramount. All this other stuff is window dressing and gobbledygook. Which is fine if you enjoy window dressing and gobbledygook.

[moonslav59]

K's are the best thing a pitcher can do. Everything else, and he needs help...

 

Yes, but that does not mean the guy who K's the most batters is the best.

 

DHern would win the Cy Young.

 

I know FIP counts walks, so he couldn't win it, but many pitchers are known for inducing weakly hit balls, while others let up a lot of line shots that don't go for homers, and FIP totally ignores this area.

 

I get why, and I do think FIP has value, but I still think K's are over-rated for pitchers and batters.

[dgalehouse]

These make sense, but what accounts for movement of pitches? Like, why does Eovaldi sometimes get roped throwing 100 mph, and why can't the Sox hit Means at 83? Richards said he made good pitches the other day... then why did the O's rip his fastball and spin his spinners to beat the shift?

 

As the radio voice of the Yankees , John Sterling, would say , " That's baseball , Suzyn. " The analytics addicts would spend hours coming up with stats to explain it all. Probably invent a few new stats along the way.

[notin]

The ultimate object is to win the game. Wins , saves and ERA are paramount. All this other stuff is window dressing and gobbledygook. Which is fine if you enjoy window dressing and gobbledygook.

 

And wins and ERA depend heavily on the team around you. Saves are overrated and no more important than Holds. And in some instances, like Randy Dobnak yesterday, saves are a flat out joke...