A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The Sox lineup looks interchangeably weak offensively and defensively. The use of Verdugo is particularly irksome; he was an above-average right fielder last year, but in the first three games he's started in right, center and left -- and has looked awkward in each of the latter two.

 

If I didn't know they were planning on contending this year, it would almost appear like Bloom is vying for another top-four draft pick in 2022.

[moonslav59]

The current team is a joint production of John, Ben, Dave, and Chaim. Nobody is without credit or without fault.

 

True, and one could probably even argue Theo had an influence on Ben and DD and hence this team.

 

I just thought I'd throw a jab at DD to counter all the "thanks Ben" comments.

[mvp 78]

True, and one could probably even argue Theo had an influence on Ben and DD and hence this team.

 

I just thought I'd throw a jab at DD to counter all the "thanks Ben" comments.

 

May as well go back to Duquette then. I mean, that's the start of the modern version of the Sox.

[moonslav59]

May as well go back to Duquette then. I mean, that's the start of the modern version of the Sox.

 

I guess you could, but it is such a very small amount of influence- much smaller than even Theo.

[Nick]

When he left, the prospects were:

 

Moncada

Devers

Espinoza (highly regarded)

Margot

Benintendi

Kopech

Chavis

Logan Alen

Dubon

Brian Johnson

 

ERod was a rookie.

 

That's a lot of young talent. While the talent is mostly offensive, they could have used some of those guys to bring in young arms.

 

Pretty good list...I would note however the cost of acquiring Moncada...doubling the bonus payout or something crazy?

 

Let's look at what DD left us behind

 

Triston Casas

Jarren Duran

Tanner Houck

Gibert Jimenez

Boby Dalbec

Bryan Mata

Noah Song

Jay Groome

 

I think this group has as much chance to succeed as Ben's group.

Edited April 5, 2021 by Nick

[Slasher9]

LMFAO at only pointing a finger at Ben for our suckedness at drafting pitchers. name 1 red sox GM that was good at it? i'll wait.

as for what we will see this season...sorry to the deniers but the Cliff is Real! and we have fallen off of it. bigly.

[Nick]

LMFAO at only pointing a finger at Ben for our suckedness at drafting pitchers. name 1 red sox GM that was good at it? i'll wait.

as for what we will see this season...sorry to the deniers but the Cliff is Real! and we have fallen off of it. bigly.

 

I see this year as identifying the core group that can take us to become competitive teams into the future.

 

As Moon has said, many of the players are on a short leash contracts. I'm more interested in development of

 

Devers....find out once and all his best position...don't we have professionals that can decide?

Dalbec....is his bat for real and can he make enough contact to be a major leaguer?

Whitlock....can he be expanded and be a starter in the future?

Houck....can he develop a third pitch and command the strike zone to be a middle of the pack starter?

Duran....can he make enough improvements to reach majors this year? can he come close to what Bloom is predicting for him? a potential to be a 'great' player?

Chavis...what will convince Cora to believe in Chavis?

Downs...is he a viable major leaguer in 2021 at some point?

Pivetta....is he a permanent major league starter?

Casas.....what positions will Casas, Devers, Chavis and Dalbec settle into?

Hernandez....at what point can he become a closer or is he a finished product? Great stuff but no command?

etc, etc

 

The Cliff is real. We need to separate the future from the place holders such as Peters, Richards, Eovaldi, Barnes, etc, etc....

Edited April 5, 2021 by Nick

[moonslav59]

I see this year as identifying the core group that can take us to become competitive teams into the future.

 

As Moon has said, many of the players are on a short leash contracts. I'm more interested in development of

 

Devers....find out once and all his best position...don't we have professionals that can decide?

Dalbec....is his bat for real and can he make enough contact to be a major leaguer?

Whitlock....can he be expanded and be a starter in the future?

Houck....can he develop a third pitch and command the strike zone to be a middle of the pack starter?

Duran....can he make enough improvements to reach majors this year? can he come close to what Bloom is predicting for him? a potential to be a 'great' player?

Chavis...what will convince Cora to believe in Chavis?

Downs...is he a viable major leaguer in 2021 at some point?

Pivetta....is he a permanent major league starter?

Casas.....what positions will Casas, Devers, Chavis and Dalbec settle into?

Hernandez....at what point can he become a closer or is he a finished product? Great stuff but no command?

etc, etc

 

The Cliff is real. We need to separate the future from the place holders such as Ottavino, Richards, Eovaldi, Barnes, etc, etc....

 

Agreed.

 

I would add Cordero to the list.

 

Sale is important, too, but he belongs in a separate category.

[moonslav59]

LMFAO at only pointing a finger at Ben for our suckedness at drafting pitchers. name 1 red sox GM that was good at it? i'll wait.

as for what we will see this season...sorry to the deniers but the Cliff is Real! and we have fallen off of it. bigly.

 

I was told not to even say the "C" word.

 

It hurts some, too much.

[notin]

I was told not to even say the "C" word.

 

It hurts some, too much.

 

The problem with the "C" word is that in order to avoid falling off one, you have to build a "B" word...

[Bellhorn04]

LMFAO at only pointing a finger at Ben for our suckedness at drafting pitchers. name 1 red sox GM that was good at it? i'll wait.

as for what we will see this season...sorry to the deniers but the Cliff is Real! and we have fallen off of it. bigly.

 

I was told not to even say the "C" word.

 

It hurts some, too much.

 

I think most of us (including the projections people) were under the impression Chaim was putting together a team that would be above .500 this year at least...

 

Which could still happen.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The problem with the "C" word is that in order to avoid falling off one, you have to build a "B" word...

 

Come on -- this is talksOx... with an O.

[mvp 78]

LMFAO at only pointing a finger at Ben for our suckedness at drafting pitchers. name 1 red sox GM that was good at it? i'll wait.

as for what we will see this season...sorry to the deniers but the Cliff is Real! and we have fallen off of it. bigly.

 

Man made cliff. Henry could have kept spending. He chose not to.

[mvp 78]

The cliff was Henry's arthritis not wanting to put bigger numbers on Betts' check. The cliff was Werner's tinnitus not wanting to negotiate further.

[moonslav59]

I think most of us (including the projections people) were under the impression Chaim was putting together a team that would be above .500 this year at least...

 

Which could still happen.

 

I was hoping he would/could.

 

He's still got a $205M budget.

 

The top priority, however, was always about 2022 and beyond, IMO, hence all the one year deals.

 

I see 2021 more as a bridge year than a rebuild year, although both come into play.

 

Next winter, when the wallet opens (I hope), we could start seeing some 2+ year deals and a true building of a coherent team.

 

The questions Nick brought up should have clearer answers by then, and we'll know what areas of need we need to go to FAs with. Hopefully, it will be less holes than we had, this winter.

 

Bloom has built up the farm, but it still needs more building.

 

He's built up the bottom of the 40 man roster light years better than 2021, but that could use improvement, too.

 

Hopefully, we can get some youth (and vets) showing they can fill some key slots:

 

CF: Duran or Cordero

2B: Downs, Arauz, Arroyo, Munoz

3B or 1B: Devers

1B or 3B: Dalbec

1B, 2B, OF: Chavis

SP: Houck, Seabold and maybe others

RP: DHern, Whitlock and a few others

 

If very few or none of these guys show hope, we won't spend bi, next winter, IMO. The whole plan will be set a year ahead, and the draft will be the key to the next big spend.

[moonslav59]

Man made cliff. Henry could have kept spending. He chose not to.

 

We are still a top 3 spending team.

 

Please elaborate.

[dgalehouse]

The " cliff " is an imaginary thing. Not real. The reality is that John Henry woke up one day and thought , " This ballclub is getting a little too expensive. I am going to cut the spending a little bit. " So you can blame him for that . Or you can give him a pass . After all , we do have four championships on his watch and the payroll is still pretty high . Or you can blame Bloom. But he is doing what he was hired to do. And it is difficult to put together a great team by bringing in a bunch of mediocrities and hoping for big things from them.

[mvp 78]

We are still a top 3 spending team.

 

Please elaborate.

 

He chose not to keep Mookie. The same way he chose not to keep Lester years ago (because he was over 30) and then regretted the decision enough to overpay for Price (who was over 30).

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The " cliff " is an imaginary thing. Not real. The reality is that John Henry woke up one day and thought , " This ballclub is getting a little too expensive. I am going to cut the spending a little bit. " So you can blame him for that . Or you can give him a pass . After all , we do have four championships on his watch and the payroll is still pretty high . Or you can blame Bloom. But he is doing what he was hired to do. And it is difficult to put together a great team by bringing in a bunch of mediocrities and hoping for big things from them.

 

Good summary. Diehards can't cry in our beers... just don't rain in my stein and tell me it's pilsner.

[notin]

The " cliff " is an imaginary thing. Not real. The reality is that John Henry woke up one day and thought , " This ballclub is getting a little too expensive. I am going to cut the spending a little bit. " So you can blame him for that . Or you can give him a pass . After all , we do have four championships on his watch and the payroll is still pretty high . Or you can blame Bloom. But he is doing what he was hired to do. And it is difficult to put together a great team by bringing in a bunch of mediocrities and hoping for big things from them.

 

People who were predicting the cliff cited that as one of the exact causes. The team had a hefty budget and no cheap farm system replacements to fill the gaps, which is not a formula for sustainable success. What you said was an inevitable cause of the cliff, not a coincidental happenstance...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

He chose not to keep Mookie. The same way he chose not to keep Lester years ago (because he was over 30) and then regretted the decision enough to overpay for Price (who was over 30).

 

You keep reminding him, so he won't forget the past. But unless Bloom hits the jackpot and drafts a Robin Yount-type (instant big league regular at age 18) then what are the odds that history repeats itself?

[notin]

You keep reminding him, so he won't forget the past. But unless Bloom hits the jackpot and drafts a Robin Yount-type (instant big league regular at age 18) then what are the odds that history repeats itself?

 

Hey don't forget Mookie was not exactly some top tier prospect.

 

He was drafted in the fifth round with the 172nd overall pick, and was not even ranked by every scouting bureau, and the ones who did rank him did not exactly place him near the top. He was only ranked in the top 100 before the 2014 season (his 4th minor league season), and came in at 62 on MLB.com and at 75 on Baseball America, and was behind former Sox prospect and career minor leaguer Garin Cecchini on both lists.

 

Not exactly rankings or a draft status indicative of his future...

[moonslav59]

The " cliff " is an imaginary thing. Not real. The reality is that John Henry woke up one day and thought , " This ballclub is getting a little too expensive. I am going to cut the spending a little bit. " So you can blame him for that . Or you can give him a pass . After all , we do have four championships on his watch and the payroll is still pretty high . Or you can blame Bloom. But he is doing what he was hired to do. And it is difficult to put together a great team by bringing in a bunch of mediocrities and hoping for big things from them.

 

Yes, we have cut some from the budgets of 2018 and 2019, but in the grand scheme of Sox budgets past, this is kind of in sinc...

 

We are still spending more than any other season, except 2018 and 2019, even counting inflation.

 

2001>2021:

110

108

100

127

124

120

143

134

122

168

164

175

155

156

184

198

197

234

236

184 (pro-rated)

206

 

There were ups and downs all along- some by more than others.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Hey don't forget Mookie was not exactly some top tier prospect.

 

He was drafted in the fifth round with the 172nd overall pick, and was not even ranked by every scouting bureau, and the ones who did rank him did not exactly place him near the top. He was only ranked in the top 100 before the 2014 season (his 4th minor league season), and came in at 62 on MLB.com and at 75 on Baseball America, and was behind former Sox prospect and career minor leaguer Garin Cecchini on both lists.

 

Not exactly rankings or a draft status indicative of his future...

 

All good points -- but is Red Sox Nation prepared to give Bloom a leash that long for another sleeper pick to develop? It just feels like overall interest in the MLB is waning, and last place Sox teams may actually lose some fans this time unless more drastic turnover is expedited.

[jad]

All good points -- but is Red Sox Nation prepared to give Bloom a leash that long for another sleeper pick to develop? It just feels like overall interest in the MLB is waning, and last place Sox teams may actually lose some fans this time unless more drastic turnover is expedited.

 

Except that 'drastic turnover' (i.e., getting rid of the majority of players ordinary fans like to see play), is exactly what got the RS into this situation.

[Nick]

Yes, we have cut some from the budgets of 2018 and 2019, but in the grand scheme of Sox budgets past, this is kind of in sinc...

 

We are still spending more than any other season, except 2018 and 2019, even counting inflation.

 

2001>2021:

110

108

100

127

124

120

143

134

122

168

164

175

155

156

184

198

197

234

236

184 (pro-rated)

206

 

There were ups and downs all along- some by more than others.

 

 

If the data above doesn't refute the idea that Henry is cheap, well noting will and we have nothing to talk about. It's what you do with the money that's most critical.

 

We're big market team, however the Yankees and the Dodgers are in another category when it comes to revenue. It's far superior to the Sox.

 

My guess is our player payroll budget is the top line of competitive tax payroll. If I'm the owner, that's where I would put the payroll budget. If the GM can not toe that line, he's gone.

 

You sign multiple year deals so the additions to payroll must be viewed in the context of future obligations.

 

Businesses are always forward looking. Sox will fetch multiples of free cash flow. It remains to be seen how quickly the top line will fall in line Pre-COVID.

 

We need infusion of production from our cost controlled players. Period.

 

Whitlock, Dalbec, Devers, Houck, Pivetta...... We have $153M in play right now. They have to produce. That's what I would tell my baseball people. YOU got me into this

position. Fix it.

 

I think Bloom is working on it.

Edited April 5, 2021 by Nick

[Bellhorn04]

Except that 'drastic turnover' (i.e., getting rid of the majority of players ordinary fans like to see play), is exactly what got the RS into this situation.

 

There's some good news, though: Benintendi is hitting .154 and JBJ is hitting .125, so no one would have liked seeing that either.

[moonslav59]

Except that 'drastic turnover' (i.e., getting rid of the majority of players ordinary fans like to see play), is exactly what got the RS into this situation.

 

Do you really want Price, Porcello, Kimbrel, Kelly, Velazquez, Brian Johnson, Hembree, Thornburg, Workman, Beni, JBJ, Nunez, Pearce, Moreland, Holt, Swihart, HRam, Kinsler back?

 

Would we be any better?

 

Yes, missing Betts hurts, but we'd be in worse shape now and looking forward, had we paid these guys what they wanted and got.

[jad]

There's some good news, though: Benintendi is hitting .154 and JBJ is hitting .125, so no one would have liked seeing that either.

 

And that Mookie guy? But yes, I admit, as a RS fan, I'd rather watch Beni and JBJ struggle than watch players I've never heard of outhit them by 30 points or so.

[moonslav59]

If the data above doesn't refute the idea that Henry is cheap, well noting will and we have nothing to talk about. It's what you do with the money that's most critical.

 

We're big market team, however the Yankees and the Dodgers are in another category when it comes to revenue. It's far superior to the Sox.

 

My guess is our player payroll budget is the top line of competitive tax payroll. If I'm the owner, that's where I would put the payroll budget. If the GM can not toe that line, he's gone.

 

You sign multiple year deals so the additions to payroll must be viewed in the context of future obligations.

 

Businesses are always forward looking. Sox will fetch multiples of free cash flow. It remains to be seen how quickly the top line will fall in line Pre-COVID.

 

We need infusion of production from our cost controlled players. Period.

 

Whitlock, Dalbec, Devers, Houck, Pivetta...... We have $153M in play right now. They have to produce. That's what I would tell my baseball people. YOU got me into this

position. Fix it.

 

I think Bloom is working on it.

 

We will spend very big again. I say "very" big, because we are already spending big.

 

The time to spend is when you think you might be 2-3 big players away from a good chance at winning it all.

 

It is obvious, we are not there yet, but maybe by this upcoming winter or the following one, we could be.