A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Do we need Odor? If we want a 2b who does nothing offensively but hit home runs, strikes out a ton, and struggles defensively, I think Chavis can handle the role...

 

Or Danny Santana?

 

And since this is a Realistic Part II thread: who will be the Red Sox next full-time starting position player called up from the minors? I'm predicting Jeter Downs, after the trade deadline. Duran will also make the bigs this summer, but in a platoon role as he makes adjustments.

[moonslav59]

Or Danny Santana?

 

And since this is a Realistic Part II thread: who will be the Red Sox next full-time starting position player called up from the minors? I'm predicting Jeter Downs, after the trade deadline. Duran will also make the bigs this summer, but in a platoon role as he makes adjustments.

 

I can't see anyone else besides Downs and Duran. Casas is a long shot. Munoz might have a better chance than Casas.

 

If Downs can win the 2B job, EHern would likely squeeze Duran out of any chance at being FT, unless Renfroe/Cordero/Marwin flop.

 

If Duran moves up, then EHern squeezes Down at 2B.

[notin]

Or Danny Santana?

 

And since this is a Realistic Part II thread: who will be the Red Sox next full-time starting position player called up from the minors? I'm predicting Jeter Downs, after the trade deadline. Duran will also make the bigs this summer, but in a platoon role as he makes adjustments.

 

So Downs over Chavis?

[notin]

I can't see anyone else besides Downs and Duran. Casas is a long shot. Munoz might have a better chance than Casas.

 

If Downs can win the 2B job, EHern would likely squeeze Duran out of any chance at being FT, unless Renfroe/Cordero/Marwin flop.

 

If Duran moves up, then EHern squeezes Down at 2B.

 

 

Anyway, you’re both wrong.

 

Ronaldo Hernandez will get called up before Downs and Duran for two reasons.

 

1. Already on the 40 man roster.

2. Less depth at his position. An injury could have him on the team by Thursday...

[Bellhorn04]

Anyway, you’re both wrong.

 

Ronaldo Hernandez will get called up before Downs and Duran for two reasons.

 

1. Already on the 40 man roster.

2. Less depth at his position. An injury could have him on the team by Thursday...

 

You are the Roster Fiend. I don't even recognize his name.

[mvp 78]

You are the Roster Fiend. I don't even recognize his name.

 

They guy we traded Springs and Mazza for.

[mvp 78]

Anyway, you’re both wrong.

 

Ronaldo Hernandez will get called up before Downs and Duran for two reasons.

 

1. Already on the 40 man roster.

2. Less depth at his position. An injury could have him on the team by Thursday...

 

I bet they'd put Hermann on the 40 man if there was an injury.

[mvp 78]

Do we need Odor? If we want a 2b who does nothing offensively but hit home runs, strikes out a ton, and struggles defensively, I think Chavis can handle the role...

 

Yeah, I don't see a fit for him.

[mvp 78]

@byJulianMack

Eduardo Rodriguez threw a bullpen but Cora admits he’s running out of time in his progression. An IL stint for him is likely

 

Cora has said that Pivetta will probably start next Tuesday, Richards to start Sunday or Monday. Andriese will be in the bullpen for now.

[mvp 78]

@byJulianMack

Eduardo Rodriguez threw a bullpen but Cora admits he’s running out of time in his progression. An IL stint for him is likely

 

Cora has said that Pivetta will probably start next Tuesday, Richards to start Sunday or Monday. Andriese will be in the bullpen for now.

 

@PeteAbe

No rotation for sure beyond Eovaldi right now.

 

But Houck or Pivetta for Saturday or Sunday and Richards for Sunday or Monday. Perez on Tuesday.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

So Downs over Chavis?

 

Definitely. I said full-time regular; Downs will take over an infield position because of injury or trade. Chavis may always be a part-timer, at 1B, 2B or DH... somewhere.

 

And my darkhorse candidate for a catcher who moves rapidly up the depth chart is Connor Wong. A great half season of power hitting and defensive improvement down on the farm might allow Bloom to flip Vazquez for more prospects!

[mvp 78]

@ChrisCotillo

Phillips Valdez makes the team. Red Sox announce:

 

* Franchy Cordero activated from COVID-19 list

* John Schreiber DFA

* Michael Chavis, Colten Brewer optioned to Worcester.

[mvp 78]

Not that these things matter in the least, but NBC has the Sox ranked 20th in their power rankings.

 

20. Boston Red Sox

 

J.D. Martinez turned his career around several years ago in Detroit by delving deep into film study of his own swing and fully embracing the launch angle revolution, so it probably shouldn’t have come as a surprise that he struggled last year as MLB removed in-game video access amid the COVID-19 pandemic. He posted a combined .317/.392/.593 batting line in his first two years with the Red Sox in 2018-2019 before stumbling to a .213/.291/.389 slash line in 2020.

[moonslav59]

Anyway, you’re both wrong.

 

Ronaldo Hernandez will get called up before Downs and Duran for two reasons.

 

1. Already on the 40 man roster.

2. Less depth at his position. An injury could have him on the team by Thursday...

 

He said FT role.

[moonslav59]

Definitely. I said full-time regular; Downs will take over an infield position because of injury or trade. Chavis may always be a part-timer, at 1B, 2B or DH... somewhere.

 

Chavis was already called up and been around a couple years.

 

He shouldn't count in this debate.

[moonslav59]

Not that these things matter in the least, but NBC has the Sox ranked 20th in their power rankings.

 

20. Boston Red Sox

 

J.D. Martinez turned his career around several years ago in Detroit by delving deep into film study of his own swing and fully embracing the launch angle revolution, so it probably shouldn’t have come as a surprise that he struggled last year as MLB removed in-game video access amid the COVID-19 pandemic. He posted a combined .317/.392/.593 batting line in his first two years with the Red Sox in 2018-2019 before stumbling to a .213/.291/.389 slash line in 2020.

 

Movin' on up!

[moonslav59]

@ChrisCotillo

Phillips Valdez makes the team. Red Sox announce:

 

* Franchy Cordero activated from COVID-19 list

* John Schreiber DFA

* Michael Chavis, Colten Brewer optioned to Worcester.

 

I'm probably Chavis's least supportive fan, but I thought this was the time to give him and extended look-see and determine, once and for all, if he's a keeper.

 

I do still wonder what his trade value is. The BTV site has him valued very well.

 

8.9 EHern

7.6 ERod & Yorke

6.6 Chavis

6.0 Houck

5.4 Pivetta & Seabold

5.3 Ward

5.0 Lugo

[mvp 78]

Movin' on up!

 

#15 with a bullet!

[moonslav59]

#15 with a bullet!

 

We will finish above the #16 or #17 slot, and I'm hopeful we can end up top 12-15.

[Nick]

Michael Chavis wasn’t happy when the Red Sox optioned him to the alternate training. But manager Alex Cora views that in a positive way. He likes Chavis having that type of attitude.

 

Chavis will begin the 2021 season in Worcester. The Red Sox chose Christian Arroyo for the final position player roster spot.

 

“There’s a lot of circumstances that go into the decision but one thing we like about Christian, he can play shortstop,” Red Sox manager Alex Cora said. “Michael, he made some strides. And I’m glad he was upset because that’s part of it. Nobody’s happy when they send you down. But we talk about a few things that he needs to do to be the complete hitter we know he can be. I think at the end, he didn’t control the strike zone. He was very aggressive chasing pitches out of the zone.”

 

 

Chavis went 13-for-43 (.302) with a .362 on-base percentage, .767 slugging percentage, 1.129 OPS, six home runs, two doubles, 10 RBIs, nine runs, two walks and 12 strikeouts in his first 18 games of spring training.

 

But he went just 2-for-17 with eight strikeouts in his final seven games.

 

“Now with his swing, knowing that he knows boundaries of the strike zone up, now we have to make sure, ‘Hey, we can drive pitches in the zone,’” Cora said. “So he’ll work on that. And I’ve been saying all along, it takes more than 26 guys to win this thing. Because you’re on the Opening Day roster, it doesn’t mean you’re going to be here the whole season. There’s circumstances and injuries and other stuff, especially nowadays. ... He needs to be ready. Not only him. All those kids down there.”

 

No way he was making Cora's team. I told you.

[mvp 78]

No way he was making Cora's team. I told you.

Writing was on the wall with the “two man bench” stuff.

[moonslav59]

Writing was on the wall with the “two man bench” stuff.

 

But, I thought they said 13-13 for a bit...

[mvp 78]

But, I thought they said 13-13 for a bit...

 

That was if Cordero was on IL. They always wanted to go 12/14.

[moonslav59]

With a 26 man roster, a 2 man bench seems wrong.

 

(I disliked it when they had 25 man rosters, but at times, 13 pitchers were needed.)

[notin]

With a 26 man roster, a 2 man bench seems wrong.

 

(I disliked it when they had 25 man rosters, but at times, 13 pitchers were needed.)

 

The "two man bench" does not include the backup catcher. It's really a 3 man bench...

[notin]

The Red Sox signed Hector Rondon to a minor league deal. Rondon had a rough spring (7.71 ERA in 8 IP), but hey, still better than Phillips Valdez...

[moonslav59]

According to fangraphs, here are how they rate the top SP'ers in 2021 Projections:

 

Best aces:

6.3 deGrom

5.5 Cole

5.2 Bieber

4.8 Scherzer

4.4 Bauer

4.2 Bueler, Castillo, Giolito, Nola, Darvish

4.0 Strasburg

 

Teams with 2 pitchers over 4.0: Nats & LAD

 

Teams with most pitchers over 3.0:

3: SDP, LAD, WSK

2: CIN, CWS, PHI

 

Teams with most pitchers over 2.5:

4 SDP

3 LAD, WSH, CWS

2 NYY, NYM, CIN, ATL, MIL, TOR, MN, SEA, HOU

 

Teams with most pitchers over 2.0:

5 SDP

4 NYM

3 LAD, NYY, WSH, CIN, CWS, ATL, PHI, MN, OAK

 

Teams with the most over 1.5:

5 SDP, NYY, STL

4 LAD, NYM, ATL, MN, SEA, OAK, SFG, MIA, KCR

3 WSH, CIN, CWS, MIL, PHI, TOR, LAA, HOU, AZ

 

Teams with the most over 1.0

7 NYY

6 SDP, LAD, NYM, MIL, LAA

5 CIN, NYM, TOR, MN, STL, HOU, TEX, MIA, KCR, AZ, COL

4 CWS, SEA, BOS, CLE, OAK, TBR, SFG, DET, Cubs, PIT

 

(Only the O's make no list. Meany at 1.7 and 2 guys at 0.9.)

[moonslav59]

Here's how fangraphs ranks the Sox by positional value:

 

4. DH (Yanks 2nd)

5. Catcher (Yanks 14th- surprisingly high)

8. 3B (Yanks 15th)

8. SS (Yanks 5th)

10. CF (Yanks 8th- Verdugo with 400 PAs, Duran 210)

14. 2B (Yanks 3rd- Arroyo w more PAs at 2B than EHern+Marwin)

16. RF (Yanks 4th- Renfroe 470 PAs/ Verdugo 150)

17. LF (Yanks 10th- Cordero 400/Marwin 140)

18. 1B (Yanks 9th)

 

Overall:

 

Batting:

30.1 LAD

28.6 HOU

27.9 NYY

26.2 TOR

25.4 MN

23.0 ATL

22.5 SDP

21.1 NYM

21.0 BOS

20.6 OAK

19.1 TBR/CWS

 

Pitching

21.4 SDP

21.3 NYY/NYM

21.0 LAD

18.0 CWS

17.4 WSH

15th BOS at 13.8 (just ahead of the Rays)

 

Total

51.1 LAD

49.2 NYY

43.9 SDP

42.4 NYM

41.0 NYM/TOR

40.2 HOU

39.4 ATL

37.1 CWS

36.1 LAA

35.0 WSH

34.8 BOS

 

6 AL teams ahead of us, including the Angels 1.3 ahead.

[a700hitter]

@PeteAbe

No rotation for sure beyond Eovaldi right now.

 

But Houck or Pivetta for Saturday or Sunday and Richards for Sunday or Monday. Perez on Tuesday.

That’s shaping up just dandy.

[oldtimer]

Here's how fangraphs ranks the Sox by positional value:

 

4. DH (Yanks 2nd)

5. Catcher (Yanks 14th- surprisingly high)

8. 3B (Yanks 15th)

8. SS (Yanks 5th)

10. CF (Yanks 8th- Verdugo with 400 PAs, Duran 210)

14. 2B (Yanks 3rd- Arroyo w more PAs at 2B than EHern+Marwin)

16. RF (Yanks 4th- Renfroe 470 PAs/ Verdugo 150)

17. LF (Yanks 10th- Cordero 400/Marwin 140)

18. 1B (Yanks 9th)

 

Overall:

 

Batting:

30.1 LAD

28.6 HOU

27.9 NYY

26.2 TOR

25.4 MN

23.0 ATL

22.5 SDP

21.1 NYM

21.0 BOS

20.6 OAK

19.1 TBR/CWS

 

Pitching

21.4 SDP

21.3 NYY/NYM

21.0 LAD

18.0 CWS

17.4 WSH

15th BOS at 13.8 (just ahead of the Rays)

 

Total

51.1 LAD

49.2 NYY

43.9 SDP

42.4 NYM

41.0 NYM/TOR

40.2 HOU

39.4 ATL

37.1 CWS

36.1 LAA

35.0 WSH

34.8 BOS

 

6 AL teams ahead of us, including the Angels 1.3 ahead.

 

Guess we don't need to play the season since Fan Graphs has it all decided up front.