Who should the Sox have play CF on opening day?

[moonslav59]

https://soxoutsider.substack.com/p/bostons-secret-centerfielder

 

It's like it was me talking.

[vegasbob]

And if you want to lose the rest of your lunch, just have the Sox open discussions with Brett Gardner . Never in a thousand years would I want to see him in Red Sox jersey, better he goes to New Jersey as a Newark bus driver.

[Swiharts Ghost]

And if you want to lose the rest of your lunch, just have the Sox open discussions with Brett Gardner . Never in a thousand years would I want to see him in Red Sox jersey, better he goes to New Jersey as a Newark bus driver.

 

Ideally we have Duran take control of CF and Benny and Hunter kill it platooning in Left ..Truly if this happens this is one helluva team and may surprise even the most Die hards

[mvp 78]

Jackie Bradley Jr.

Jarrod Dyson

Brett Gardner

Billy Hamilton

Kevin Pillar

Danny Santana

 

Worst average exit velocity since 2015 (min. 1,000 batted balls):

 

Billy Hamilton (81.5 mph)

Dee Strange-Gordon (82.9)

Ben Revere (83.1)

Jarrod Dyson (83.5)

Jose Iglesias (83.9)

Ender Inciarte (84.0)

Alcides Escobar (84.2)

Jose Peraza (84.6)

 

Pillar seems to be the only guy left that makes sense. No way is JBJ coming back.

[oldtimer]

Jackie Bradley Jr.

Jarrod Dyson

Brett Gardner

Billy Hamilton

Kevin Pillar

Danny Santana

 

Worst average exit velocity since 2015 (min. 1,000 batted balls):

 

Billy Hamilton (81.5 mph)

Dee Strange-Gordon (82.9)

Ben Revere (83.1)

Jarrod Dyson (83.5)

Jose Iglesias (83.9)

Ender Inciarte (84.0)of 22

Alcides Escobar (84.2)

Jose Peraza (84.6)

 

Pillar seems to be the only guy left that makes sense. No way is JBJ coming back.

 

Duran may well be in the plan as the Sox CF of the future. Why invest in a has been or never was instead of giving Duran the chance now.

[harmony]

Duran may well be in the plan as the Sox CF of the future. Why invest in a has been or never was instead of giving Duran the chance now.

Steamer and ZiPS project Jarred Duran with 2021 WAR and wRC+ of 0.3 and 87 in 45 games and 0.4 and 76 in 129 games:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jarren-duran/sa3006786/stats?position=OF#dashboard

 

Last month's FanGraphs scouting report on Duran was not all that encouraging:

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-47-prospects-boston-red-sox/

 

Scroll down.

 

On a positive note, the 24-year-old Duran finally made a Top 100 prospect list last month when Keith Law tabbed him at No. 93:

 

https://www.overthemonster.com/2021/1/28/22254173/boston-red-sox-top-prospects-keith-law-top-100-triston-casas-jeter-downs-jarren-duran

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Duran may well be in the plan as the Sox CF of the future. Why invest in a has been or never was instead of giving Duran the chance now.

 

Especially since Duran is already paid for.

[moonslav59]

I think Sox management has a better idea of when Duran is ML ready.

 

Maybe, they think he is now or will be very soon, and that's why they are avoiding adding any true CF'er.

 

I happen to think, since he is relatively new to playing the OF, they will give him a few months in AAA to work on his defense and add some more proof that his bat is ML ready.

 

As of now, I think Cordero is our CF'er. Renfroe plays FT in LF. Verdugo in RF.

 

If Cordero stumbles or gets hurt, EHerm moves to CF and Arroyo/Chavis play 2B.

 

Duran, IMO, is not an option for opening day.

[notin]

Duran may well be in the plan as the Sox CF of the future. Why invest in a has been or never was instead of giving Duran the chance now.

 

Do not want to bank on Duran in case he is still hitting .120 by the end of May and looks awful on defense?

 

The smart move is to bring in a has-been or never-was and work Duran in when (not if, when) the injuries occur.

[moonslav59]

Not everyone can learn a new position like Betts did.

 

Not every decent prospect who gets called up hits like Devers, Betts and Bogey.

 

Just because he turns 25, this season, does not mean he is ML ready, especially since last season did not help his development curve.

[mvp 78]

Do not want to bank on Duran in case he is still hitting .120 by the end of May and looks awful on defense?

 

The smart move is to bring in a has-been or never-was and work Duran in when (not if, when) the injuries occur.

 

Yes, have Duran play his way onto the roster first. I just means there is not impediment to getting to BOS if he's playing well.

[notin]

Not everyone can learn a new position like Betts did.

 

Not every decent prospect who gets called up hits like Devers, Betts and Bogey.

 

Just because he turns 25, this season, does not mean he is ML ready, especially since last season did not help his development curve.

 

Not to mention his struggles in AA ball...

[moonslav59]

Not to mention his struggles in AA ball...

 

Yes, .634 in 2019 at AA NOT AAA!

 

He did well in fall ball, but with just 23 games in 2020, but it's hard to imagine playing just that many games in an inferior league helped his development, at all.

 

Suddenly, he's "ready" to play FT in MLB.

 

Also, he only played in 67 games in 2018 (20 at 2B) and was in college playing 34-58 games each year before that as an infielder.

 

I'm all for being optimistic with our prospects, but I'm not seeing where the over optimism is coming from.

[mvp 78]

Not to mention his struggles in AA ball...

 

His swing is apparently way different than 2019. There has been a ton of adjustments to his swing since he was drafted. I also believe he started to get better at the end of 2019 in AA.

[mvp 78]

Yes, .634 in 2019 at AA NOT AAA!

 

He did well in fall ball, but with just 23 games in 2020, but it's hard to imagine playing just that many games in an inferior league helped his development, at all.

 

Suddenly, he's "ready" to play FT in MLB.

 

Also, he only played in 67 games in 2018 (20 at 2B) and was in college playing 34-58 games each year before that as an infielder.

 

I'm all for being optimistic with our prospects, but I'm not seeing where the over optimism is coming from.

 

He's not ready. I think the vast majority of us believe he needs to prove it first. As with Cordero, you like the tools and can dream that he puts it all together.

[mvp 78]

Steamer and ZiPS project Jarred Duran with 2021 WAR and wRC+ of 0.3 and 87 in 45 games and 0.4 and 76 in 129 games:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jarren-duran/sa3006786/stats?position=OF#dashboard

 

Last month's FanGraphs scouting report on Duran was not all that encouraging:

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-47-prospects-boston-red-sox/

 

Scroll down.

 

On a positive note, the 24-year-old Duran finally made a Top 100 prospect list last month when Keith Law tabbed him at No. 93:

 

https://www.overthemonster.com/2021/1/28/22254173/boston-red-sox-top-prospects-keith-law-top-100-triston-casas-jeter-downs-jarren-duran

 

There's recency bias involved, but I think some people are happy with his showing in the Caribbean Series this winter.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=duran-000jar

[harmony]

Yes, .634 in 2019 at AA NOT AAA!

 

He did well in fall ball, but with just 23 games in 2020, but it's hard to imagine playing just that many games in an inferior league helped his development, at all.

 

Suddenly, he's "ready" to play FT in MLB.

 

Also, he only played in 67 games in 2018 (20 at 2B) and was in college playing 34-58 games each year before that as an infielder.

 

I'm all for being optimistic with our prospects, but I'm not seeing where the over optimism is coming from.

Seattle first baseman Evan White, who is four-and-a-half months older than Jarren Duran, can attest how tough it is to jump from Double A to MLB for an age 24 season (Gold Glove notwithstanding). Based on rankings, Duran lacks White's prospect pedigree.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/whiteev01.shtml

 

White's 2020 debut numbers rival the dismal 2006 debut numbers of Dustin Pedroia.

Edited February 12, 2021 by harmony

[mvp 78]

Seattle first baseman Evan White, who is four-and-a-half months older than Jarren Duran, can attest to how tough it is to jump from Double A to MLB for an age 24 season (Gold Glove notwithstanding). Based on rankings, Duran lacks White's prospect pedigree.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/whiteev01.shtml

 

White's 2020 debut numbers rival the dismal 2006 debut numbers of Dustin Pedroia.

 

And what happened after that? Laser show.

 

Or not.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Seattle first baseman Evan White, who is four-and-a-half months older than Jarren Duran, can attest how tough it is to jump from Double A to MLB for an age 24 season (Gold Glove notwithstanding). Based on rankings, Duran lacks White's prospect pedigree.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/whiteev01.shtml

 

White's 2020 debut numbers rival the dismal 2006 debut numbers of Dustin Pedroia.

 

Benintendi didn't have any problems making the jump -- at age 21. But once he hit the witching hour age of 24...

[mvp 78]

Benintendi didn't have any problems making the jump -- at age 21. But once he hit the witching hour age of 24...

 

IMO, he looked like he put on weight and then he slumped and couldn't get out of his head.

 

I want to know why the hitting coach wasn't held accountable for 2020 version JD and Beni.

[harmony]

Benintendi didn't have any problems making the jump -- at age 21. But once he hit the witching hour age of 24...

To be precise, Andrew Benintendi, who had a higher prospect pedigree, was 22 years and 27 days old when he made his MLB debut on August 2, 2016, in his age 21 season:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=benint000and

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

To be precise, Andrew Benintendi, who had a higher prospect pedigree, was 22 years and 27 days old when he made his MLB debut on August 2, 2016, in his age 21 season:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=benint000and

 

 

How many hours and minutes?

[moonslav59]

He's not ready. I think the vast majority of us believe he needs to prove it first. As with Cordero, you like the tools and can dream that he puts it all together.

 

The difference is Cordero is ready to prove it at the ML level: Duran is not, as you pointed out.

[oldtimer]

I think Sox management has a better idea of when Duran is ML ready.

 

Maybe, they think he is now or will be very soon, and that's why they are avoiding adding any true CF'er.

 

I happen to think, since he is relatively new to playing the OF, they will give him a few months in AAA to work on his defense and add some more proof that his bat is ML ready.

 

As of now, I think Cordero is our CF'er. Renfroe plays FT in LF. Verdugo in RF.

 

If Cordero stumbles or gets hurt, EHerm moves to CF and Arroyo/Chavis play 2B.

 

Duran, IMO, is not an option for opening day.

 

We shall see

[moonslav59]

We shall see

 

May I ask what makes you think he's ready for opening day?

 

He's never played above AA.

 

He's learning a new position.

 

He's made a few recent adjustments with his hitting approach.

 

He barely played at all since 2019, when he hit .634 in AA.

 

I know he's got some tools and a lot of upside, but nothing indicates he's ready, now, IMO.

[notin]

His swing is apparently way different than 2019. There has been a ton of adjustments to his swing since he was drafted. I also believe he started to get better at the end of 2019 in AA.

 

He still needs to prove something in the minors at some level above A ball and in more at bats than one gets in the AFL or a Caribbean series...

[mvp 78]

He still needs to prove something in the minors at some level above A ball and in more at bats than one gets in the AFL or a Caribbean series...

 

I agree.

 

Maybe OPS’s over 1.500 in ST and tees off on AAA pitching like Marwin Gonzalez with a trashcan at Fenway.

[mvp 78]

Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe reports that free agent outfielder Jackie Bradley Jr. "remains a possibility" for the Mets.

This could be contingent upon the designated hitter returning to the National League, which hasn't happened yet. There's still a decent chance it will happen -- everybody seemingly wants it -- but the Mets can't bank on that and complicate their roster. The Red Sox keep being mentioned for a possible reunion after trading Andrew Benintendi and the Astros have always looked like a good fit. It will be interesting to see if Bradley waits out the DH situation or simply tries to settle in somewhere.

 

The only way JBJ comes back is if his market tanks. Looks like he may have made a misstep in going for a 5 year deal. Maybe he'll be the guy at the end of musical chairs with no place to sit. If he comes back to the Sox then, he's probably going to be a little cranky all year (think: Eck hating era of JBJ).

[moonslav59]

Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe reports that free agent outfielder Jackie Bradley Jr. "remains a possibility" for the Mets.

This could be contingent upon the designated hitter returning to the National League, which hasn't happened yet. There's still a decent chance it will happen -- everybody seemingly wants it -- but the Mets can't bank on that and complicate their roster. The Red Sox keep being mentioned for a possible reunion after trading Andrew Benintendi and the Astros have always looked like a good fit. It will be interesting to see if Bradley waits out the DH situation or simply tries to settle in somewhere.

 

The only way JBJ comes back is if his market tanks. Looks like he may have made a misstep in going for a 5 year deal. Maybe he'll be the guy at the end of musical chairs with no place to sit. If he comes back to the Sox then, he's probably going to be a little cranky all year (think: Eck hating era of JBJ).

 

Cranky or not, he’ll be playing hard for his next contract, assuming just a 1 year deal with the Sox.

[notin]

I agree.

 

Maybe OPS’s over 1.500 in ST and tees off on AAA pitching like Marwin Gonzalez with a trashcan at Fenway.

 

I don’t think an OPS of 3.000 makes much difference. Usually only maybe one bench spot is open in spring training, and no one gives those spots to prospects, since it’s a waste of service time.

 

Duran’s only hope in ST is if the Sox decide he is the immediate answer in CF...