A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

It was official before this, but 1967! That drives the point home.

 

Well, it was indisputably the worst 60-game season we've ever had.

[notin]

Well, it was indisputably the worst 60-game season we've ever had.

 

The .400 winning percentage was the lowest since 1965 (.383). Prior to that, the Sox haven't had another season with a sub-.400 wining percentage since 1932, when they had the franchise-worst winning pct of .279...

[moonslav59]

We were horrible, this year. No dispute.

[Bellhorn04]

The .400 winning percentage was the lowest since 1965 (.383). Prior to that, the Sox haven't had another season with a sub-.400 wining percentage since 1932, when they had the franchise-worst winning pct of .279...

 

Yep, but those were not 60-game seasons.

[notin]

Yep, but those were not 60-game seasons.

 

Obviously, but the sheer lack of 60 game seasons makes wining percentage the only real method to compare. I'm not going to go through season by season to see what the Sox worst 60 game start was in team history. Maybe moon will do that someday..

[moonslav59]

Yep, but those were not 60-game seasons.

 

Do you think we'd have gotten much higher than 40% over 162 games?

[harmony]

Obviously, but the sheer lack of 60 game seasons makes wining percentage the only real method to compare. I'm not going to go through season by season to see what the Sox worst 60 game start was in team history. Maybe moon will do that someday..

FWIW the Red Sox were 18-42 (.300) over the final 60 games of the 2012 season:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2012-schedule-scores.shtml

 

... and won the World Series the following year.

[Bellhorn04]

Do you think we'd have gotten much higher than 40% over 162 games?

 

We'll never know, and it doesn't matter what I think.

[Bellhorn04]

FWIW the Red Sox were 18-42 (.300) over the final 60 games of the 2012 season:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2012-schedule-scores.shtml

 

... and won the World Series the following year.

 

Exactly. I pointed out that 60-game stretch earlier on one of these threads.

[moonslav59]

FWIW the Red Sox were 18-42 (.300) over the final 60 games of the 2012 season:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2012-schedule-scores.shtml

 

... and won the World Series the following year.

 

Man! .300!!!

 

Yes, the manager lost control of the team.

[mvp 78]

Man! .300!!!

 

Yes, the manager lost control of the team.

 

That team was gutted and replaced with a AAA team by the end of it. It's not surprising they went belly up at the end.

[mvp 78]

The final starting lineup for the 2012 Sox:

Ellsbury (682 OPS version)

Pedroia

Nava

Ross

Loney

Salty

Lavarnway

Ciriaco

Iglesias

[mvp 78]

How about their lineup for 10/1/12:

Ciriaco

Nava

Ross

Gomez

Lavarnway

Salty

Valencia

Lin

Iglesias

[mvp 78]

Papi only played one game after 7/16 that year. That lineup was a mess.

[notin]

The final starting lineup for the 2012 Sox:

Ellsbury (682 OPS version)

Pedroia

Nava

Ross

Loney

Salty

Lavarnway

Ciriaco

Iglesias

 

Ah Pedro Ciriaco. The one-time Shortstop of the Future!

 

Then that day passed...

[Bellhorn04]

That team was gutted and replaced with a AAA team by the end of it. It's not surprising they went belly up at the end.

 

And the injury-decimated 2006 team went 24-36 over their last 60 games - another stretch as bad as 2020...

 

And they also won it all the next year...

[mvp 78]

Ah Pedro Ciriaco. The one-time Shortstop of the Future!

 

Then that day passed...

 

He was a 0.9 fWAR guy in half a season!

[moonslav59]

And the injury-decimated 2006 team went 24-36 over their last 60 games - another stretch as bad as 2020...

 

And they also won it all the next year...

 

I'm sensing a pattern.

[notin]

He was a 0.9 fWAR guy in half a season!

 

And the next season he was a -0.9 fWAR guy in a third of a season...

[moonslav59]

And the next season he was a -0.9 fWAR guy in a third of a season...

 

I guess the "day" was an extended metaphor.

[mvp 78]

And the next season he was a -0.9 fWAR guy in a third of a season...

 

Hey, he's only 35. He could be do for a comeback. We do need a 2b.

[moonslav59]

Hey, he's only 35. He could be do for a comeback. We do need a 2b.

 

Pedey's got a better chance.

[mvp 78]

Pedey's got a better chance.

 

But I was told on here that he suffered a life long injury and that I should thank him for his years of service? You're telling me that his leg is fine?

[notin]

But I was told on here that he suffered a life long injury and that I should thank him for his years of service? You're telling me that his leg is fine?

 

No. He's saying that even on one leg, Pedroia would make for a better 2B option than Ciriaco

 

I mean, if Ciriaco's only selling point is that he has two working knees, the Sox might be able to find a more qualified player that matches also that criterion. Although finding one that exceeds it with 3 working knees might be more difficult...

[moonslav59]

But I was told on here that he suffered a life long injury and that I should thank him for his years of service? You're telling me that his leg is fine?

 

No. I'm saying even with his leg amputated, he's got an equal or better chance that Pedro at playing 2B for the Sox, next year.

 

I could see the Sox activating him for 1 day, next year, and letting him have 1 AB or 1 inning at 2B.

 

Pedro playing for us is impossible.

[mvp 78]

No. He's saying that even on one leg, Pedroia would make for a better 2B option than Ciriaco

 

I mean, if Ciriaco's only selling point is that he has two working knees, the Sox might be able to find a more qualified player that matches also that criterion. Although finding one that exceeds it with 3 working knees might be more difficult...

 

I disagree. Pedroia's mobility would be severely diminished. He'd be a negative dWAR guy, probably worst 2b in the league. Probably couldn't leg out any hits that didn't roll to the warning track.

[mvp 78]

No. I'm saying even with his leg amputated, he's got an equal or better chance that Pedro at playing 2B for the Sox, next year.

 

I could see the Sox activating him for 1 day, next year, and letting him have 1 AB or 1 inning at 2B.

 

Pedro playing for us is impossible.

 

If he played at 2b on one leg, he'd be really terrible. Probably couldn't get to a little league grounder.

[moonslav59]

If he played at 2b on one leg, he'd be really terrible. Probably couldn't get to a little league grounder.

 

I was assuming a high tech, prosthetic leg.

[mvp 78]

I was assuming a high tech, prosthetic leg.

 

Well, he'd first have to get his leg amputated. Then he'd have to get used to the prosthetic. Probably wouldn't be ready until 2022 when he's a FA.

[moonslav59]

Well, he'd first have to get his leg amputated. Then he'd have to get used to the prosthetic. Probably wouldn't be ready until 2022 when he's a FA.

 

You win.

 

Sign Pedro & cut Pedey!