A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[mvp 78]

So now what is he going to wear?

 

Hopefully a Yankees one.

[notin]

Hopefully a Yankees one.

 

I'd settle for a Jays' one. Hey they took Payamps; they're more desperate for pitching than the Sox...

[mvp 78]

I'd settle for a Jays' one. Hey they took Payamps; they're more desperate for pitching than the Sox...

 

2nd damn place

[notin]

2nd damn place

 

Maybe.

 

The Rays, the Jays and the Sox are all pretty flawed teams. If the Yankees can stay reasonably healthy, they might be able to walk to the finish line...

[moonslav59]

Assuming we get something good from ERod, Sale, Richards & Ottavino (all with 0 IP for the Sox, last year), I have to think we improved by a lot.

 

No Beni & JBJ. Yes Renfroe, EHern, Cordero & Marwin. I'm thinking that may be a push, but that's assuming Beni would have rebounded and JBJ played more like 2020, that the few years before that.

 

Our defense looks the most troubling. Who plays CF might help that area.

[notin]

Assuming we get something good from ERod, Sale, Richards & Ottavino (all with 0 IP for the Sox, last year), I have to think we improved by a lot.

 

No Beni & JBJ. Yes Renfroe, EHern, Cordero & Marwin. I'm thinking that may be a push, but that's assuming Beni would have rebounded and JBJ played more like 2020, that the few years before that.

 

Our defense looks the most troubling. Who plays CF might help that area.

 

OPS+ says there is not much difference between Benintendi (107) and Renfroe (106)...

[moonslav59]

OPS+ says there is not much difference between Benintendi (107) and Renfroe (106)...

 

I'd rather have Renfroe, EHern, Cordero & Marwin than Beni, Chavis, JBJ & Chatham.

[a700hitter]

I'd rather have Renfroe, EHern, Cordero & Marwin than Beni, Chavis, JBJ & Chatham.

Who platoons with Renfroe with Beni gone?

[mvp 78]

Who platoons with Renfroe with Beni gone?

 

Franchy. Well, that’s what I’d do. I’d also sign a guy to play CF.

[a700hitter]

Franchy. Well, that’s what I’d do. I’d also sign a guy to play CF.

That is probably what they will do.

[a700hitter]

Franchy. Well, that’s what I’d do. I’d also sign a guy to play CF.

Verdugo

Kike

Renfroe/Franchy

 

?

[moonslav59]

Who platoons with Renfroe with Beni gone?

 

Nobody. Renfroe's .717 OPS vs RHPs might be better than Beni's 2021 number, anyway.

 

If you insist on a Renfroe platoon, maybe Chavis could play LF. He hits righties better.

 

That being said, I still think we sign add a CF'er or 2Bman, so EHern can play CF near FT, and we end up with Cordero-Renfroe in LF.

[notin]

Who platoons with Renfroe with Beni gone?

 

On the current roster, maybe Marwin Gonzalez. (But I’d just let Renfroe hit away on his own.)

 

Also possible it’s Franchy Cordero. But the Sox would then need a CF. (Bradley? Pillar?). Or a RF (Puig?) with Verdugo in CF.

 

Or maybe someone not yet on the roster. Brett Gardner? Josh Reddick? Corey Dickerson? Nick Markakis? Tyler Naquiin?

 

Or maybe they just sign Yasiel Puig, plug him in LF and move Renfroe to the bench...

[notin]

Verdugo

Kike

Renfroe/Franchy

 

?

 

And who for 2b? What was a promising field of 2b is pretty much dried up by now...

[a700hitter]

On the current roster, maybe Marwin Gonzalez. (But I’d just let Renfroe hit away on his own.)

 

Also possible it’s Franchy Cordero. But the Sox would then need a CF. (Bradley? Pillar?). Or a RF (Puig?) with Verdugo in CF.

 

Or maybe someone not yet on the roster. Brett Gardner? Josh Reddick? Corey Dickerson? Nick Markakis? Tyler Naquiin?

 

Or maybe they just sign Yasiel Puig, plug him in LF and move Renfroe to the bench...

Marwin’s splits are not good enough against RHPing.

[notin]

Marwin’s splits are not good enough against RHPing.

 

Or LHP. But he will be on the team doing something.

 

Maybe Cordero/Renfroe in LF, Hernandez in CF, Verdugo in RF and Chavis and/or Arroyo at 2b?

[mvp 78]

Verdugo

Kike

Renfroe/Franchy

 

?

 

I guess if they want Arroyo at 2b.

[moonslav59]

And who for 2b? What was a promising field of 2b is pretty much dried up by now...

 

Plenty available by trade.

[moonslav59]

The 2021 Pitching Staff

 

I can't help but think we could see a major improvement over 2020 and even 2019, in some cases.

 

Chris Sale: He's the big question mark. Some think it's foolish to think he can ever come close to what he used to be, but he was so great that coming fairly close would be a huge boost, even if for just 2-3 months.

 

Garrett Richards: Another question mark based mostly on health history. The guy can pitch, when healthy, and his upside is so much greater than guys we threw out there last year.

 

Nathan Eovaldi: He stayed pretty healthy in the short 2020 season, and the big if has always been, does he have a full season in him?

 

Eduardo Rodriguez: He was just reaching prime when COVID struck. Now, he's another health questioned starter.

 

Martin Perez and Nick Pivetta: They could both be capable 5th starter types, with Pivetta having some upside to be even better. Both could get 32 starts based on the sketchiness of our top 4 starters.

 

Garrett Whitlock, Bryan Mata, Connor Seabold: If these guys get a lot of starts, we may be doomed for a bad year, but there is also a lot to be excited about, here- maybe not for 2020, but who knows?

 

Adam Ottavino: He has the potential to be a big plus for us. He's a proven RP'er.

 

Matt Barnes: He's got a bad rap for not becoming the closer we needed, but he's still a good set up man.

 

Ryan Brasier: Here's where our pen takes a big step down from most other good teams, but there is hope he can return to 2018 form.

 

Darwinzon Hernandez: He has the most upside potential in our pen. The guy has a near record breaking K/9 rate, but his BB/9 rate has been almost equally amazing in the wrong direction. Maybe, this is the year he reduces his BB rate significantly.

 

Josh Taylor: He showed some pretty good stuff not too long ago.

 

Hirokazu Sawamura: I won't even try to project what he might do, but adding him gives us one more shot at having a meaningful pen arm.

 

Matt Andriese: Who knows?

 

Out of options Austin Brice: No love here.

 

Valdez, Brewer, Bazardo, Weber, Walden, Springs: Not any better than most team's scrubs.

 

Tanner Houck: It's hard not to get optimistic over his 3 starts in 2020, but we really should not expect greatness based on such a tiny sample size. That being said, it's not unlikely he could do very well.

 

A look at the IP and ERAs of last year's SP'ers and you have to sake your head and think, it's almost impossible not to see a vast improvement in this important area, even if guys like Sale & ERod hardly pitch at all.

 

IP and ERA as SP'er ONLY

62 Perez 4.50

48 Eovaldi 3.72

25 Godley 9.49

23 Mazza 5.01

19 Weber 7.11

17 Houck 0.53

14 Brewer 6.91

10 Pivetta 1.80

9.0 Hart 13.00

6.2 Kickham 10.80

4.0 Triggs 2.25

2.2 M Hall 10.13

2.0 Osich 9.00

1.0 Brice, Brasier & Leyer 0.00

 

Perez, Eovaldi, Houck and Pivetta only pitched 137 out of the 246 IP all of our starters gave us in 2020.

 

That's 55%.

 

Sale, ERod, Richards could eat up a big chunk of those other 45%. If not, I still like more from Houck, Pivetta and anything from Whitlock, Mata and Seabold better than what we saw, last year.

 

The pen should also be better. They gave us more IP than out starters, last year (278 IP). Here were the IP leaders in 2020:

 

30 Valdez 3.26

24 Weber 2.25

24 Brasier 4.13

23 Barnes 4.30

20 Springs 7.08

19 Brice 6.27

14 Covey 7.07

14 Osich 5.27

13 Stock 4.73

13 Walden 9.45

11 Brewer 3.97

10 Hembree 5.59

8.1 DHern 2.16

7.1 Kickham 4.91

7.1 Taylor 9.82

6.2 Workman 4.05

6.2 Mazza 4.05

6.0 Hall 22.50

20 IP from 8 others (25 ERs)

 

Ottavino should eat up a lot of these scrub's IP. Barnes and DHern should have a higher % of IP.

Taylor could help, if he pitches like 2019 not 2020.

Brasier could help.

Sawamura should not be any worse than most of the departed from this list.

Valdez will likely do worse, if he even pitches much.

 

 

Edited February 14, 2021 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

The 2021 Red Sox Line-Up

 

1. Cordero CF (The biggest non pitcher question mark. Lot's of raw talent and IL stints)

 

2. Verdugo RF (Could be poised for a break-out season)

 

3. Devers 3B (Yes, he can get even better than 2019's season! Will 2021 be "that year?")

 

4. Bogaerts SS (Steady Bogey!)

 

5. Martinez DH (Need a bounce back. We don't need 2018 or 2019, but a .850+ OPs would be great)

 

6. Renfroe LF (He's not as bad vs RHPs as many think - .717 OPS) Marwin? Chavis? Kiki in CF & Cordero platoon?)

 

7. Dalbec 1B (Next to Cordero, largely an unknown over a full season in the bigs)

 

8. Vazquez C (Has been somewhat up and down on offense.)

 

9. E Hernandez 2B (We could end up really loving this guy!

 

Bench: Plawecki (capable back up), Marwin Gonzalez (can play almost anywhere- worst at 2B & CF, though), Arroyo (can play 2B, SS & 3B) & Chavis (Time to prove you belong)

 

2019 vs 2020 PAs and OPS:

 

248 Devers .793 (came on at the end. I expect .875+)

237 JD M .680 (hoping for .800+)

225 Bogey .867 (just more of the same, please)

221 .Verdugo 844 (can get better at age 25)

217 JBJ .814 (hard to replace.814 & plus D)

189 Vaz .801 (repeat,please)

158 Chavis .636 (won't play much staying at .636)

126 Pillar .795 (played well for us)

120 Peraza .617 (easy to replace)

92 Dalbec .959 (just give us .800 + with 500 + PAs)

89 Plawecki .857 (not likely to hit like this again)

80 Arauz .644 (may not play at ML level in 2021)

79 Moreland 1.177 (tough to replace, even if we sign him)

57 Lin .355

54 Arroyo .736

52 Beni .442

45 Munoz .844

11 Puello .875

 

I doubt Chavis gets 7% of our PAs in 2021, so we will likely replace some of his playing time as well as JBJ's 9%, Peraza + Arauz's 9% combined, Pillar's 5% and a combined 6% Moreland+ Beni. (3% Lin, Puello & others). All total, we lost over 33% of our 2020 PA's.

 

They will most likely be replaced by E Hernandez, Renfroe, Cordero and more from Dalbec and Arroyo.

 

 

 

Edited February 14, 2021 by moonslav59

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The 2021 Pitching Staff

 

I can't help but think we could see a major improvement over 2020 and even 2019, in some cases.

 

Chris Sale: He's the big question mark. Some think it's foolish to think he can ever come close to what he used to be, but he was so great that coming fairly close would be a huge boost, even if for just 2-3 months.

 

Garrett Richards: Another question mark based mostly on health history. The guy can pitch, when healthy, and his upside is so much greater than guys we threw out there last year.

 

Nathan Eovaldi: He stayed pretty healthy in the short 2020 season, and the big if has always been, does he have a full season in him?

 

Eduardo Rodriguez: He was just reaching prime when COVID struck. Now, he's another health questioned starter.

 

Martin Perez and Nick Pivetta: They could both be capable 5th starter types, with Pivetta having some upside to be even better. Both could get 32 starts based on the sketchiness of our top 4 starters.

 

Garrett Whitlock, Bryan Mata, Connor Seabold: If these guys get a lot of starts, we may be doomed for a bad year, but there is also a lot to be excited about, here- maybe not for 2020, but who knows?

 

Adam Ottavino: He has the potential to be a big plus for us. He's a proven RP'er.

 

Matt Barnes: He's got a bad rap for not becoming the closer we needed, but he's still a good set up man.

 

Ryan Brasier: Here's where our pen takes a big step down from most other good teams, but there is hope he can return to 2018 form.

 

Darwinzon Hernandez: He has the most upside potential in our pen. The guy has a near record breaking K/9 rate, but his BB/9 rate has been almost equally amazing in the wrong direction. Maybe, this is the year he reduces his BB rate significantly.

 

Josh Taylor: He showed some pretty good stuff not too long ago.

 

Hirokazu Sawamura: I won't even try to project what he might do, but adding him gives us one more shot at having a meaningful pen arm.

 

Matt Andriese: Who knows?

 

Out of options Austin Brice: No love here.

 

Valdez, Brewer, Bazardo, Weber, Walden, Springs: Not any better than most team's scrubs.

 

Tanner Houck: It's hard not to get optimistic over his 3 starts in 2020, but we really should not expect greatness based on such a tiny sample size. That being said, it's not unlikely he could do very well.

 

A look at the IP and ERAs of last year's SP'ers and you have to sake your head and think, it's almost impossible not to see a vast improvement in this important area, even if guys like Sale & ERod hardly pitch at all.

 

IP and ERA as SP'er ONLY

62 Perez 4.50

48 Eovaldi 3.72

25 Godley 9.49

23 Mazza 5.01

19 Weber 7.11

17 Houck 0.53

14 Brewer 6.91

10 Pivetta 1.80

9.0 Hart 13.00

6.2 Kickham 10.80

4.0 Triggs 2.25

2.2 M Hall 10.13

2.0 Osich 9.00

1.0 Brice, Brasier & Leyer 0.00

 

Perez, Eovaldi, Houck and Pivetta only pitched 137 out of the 246 IP all of our starters gave us in 2020.

 

That's 55%.

 

Sale, ERod, Richards could eat up a big chunk of those other 45%. If not, I still like more from Houck, Pivetta and anything from Whitlock, Mata and Seabold better than what we saw, last year.

 

The pen should also be better. They gave us more IP than out starters, last year (278 IP). Here were the IP leaders in 2020:

 

30 Valdez 3.26

24 Weber 2.25

24 Brasier 4.13

23 Barnes 4.30

20 Springs 7.08

19 Brice 6.27

14 Covey 7.07

14 Osich 5.27

13 Stock 4.73

13 Walden 9.45

11 Brewer 3.97

10 Hembree 5.59

8.1 DHern 2.16

7.1 Kickham 4.91

7.1 Taylor 9.82

6.2 Workman 4.05

6.2 Mazza 4.05

6.0 Hall 22.50

20 IP from 8 others (25 ERs)

 

Ottavino should eat up a lot of these scrub's IP. Barnes and DHern should have a higher % of IP.

Taylor could help, if he pitches like 2019 not 2020.

Brasier could help.

Sawamura should not be any worse than most of the departed from this list.

Valdez will likely do worse, if he even pitches much.

 

 

 

If you had to pick, who is most likely to have a break-out All-Star campaign this year?

 

My choice on the mound is Eovaldi -- his stuff, age, experience, work-outs... he is due to finally have one put-it-altogether, healthy Cy Young type season.

 

For position players, where youth counts more for durability in the PED-testing era, I have to go with Verdugo. He has the enthusiasm and incentive to prove his new skipper right. But Devers and Bogie should be better with Cora, as well.

[moonslav59]

If you had to pick, who is most likely to have a break-out All-Star campaign this year?

 

My choice on the mound is Eovaldi -- his stuff, age, experience, work-outs... he is due to finally have one put-it-altogether, healthy Cy Young type season.

 

For position players, where youth counts more for durability in the PED-testing era, I have to go with Verdugo. He has the enthusiasm and incentive to prove his new skipper right. But Devers and Bogie should be better with Cora, as well.

 

I'd have to agree on both Eovaldi and Verdugo with more faith in Verdugo.

 

I like ERod, but his health condition is so wildly unknown, at this time.

 

My sleeper picks- not for all star picks but for surprisingly good years are Pivetta & Cordero.

 

I'm also thinking we might see a mammoth year from Devers. Who knows, maybe even Bogey could have a Betts-like season.

[moonslav59]

Here are some recent numbers by current Sox hitters:

 

OPS

1.031 JD in 2018 (.939 in 2019)

.959 Dalbec in 2020 (just 92 PAs)

.939 Bogey in 2019 (.883 in 2018)

.916 Devers in 2019 (.830 career)

.907 Marwin G in 2017 (.771 since 2017)

.857 Plawecki in 2020 (.708 since 2017- 658 PAs)

.844 Verdugo in 2020 (.827 combining 2019 & 2020)

.836 EHern in 2015 (.806 in 2018)

.805 Renfroe in 2018 (.778 in 2019: 67 HRS in last 965 ABs)

.801 Vazquez in 2020 (.798 last 2 years combined- 30 HRs in 655 ABs)

.766 Chavis in 2019 (.719 since 2018)

.754 Cordero '18-'20 (216 PAs)

.736 Arroyo in 2020

 

Lots of players, here, that have already put up some good numbers.

[moonslav59]

Money spent this winter (2021 cost listed only):

 

$10M Garrett Richards FA

$8M Adam Ottavino Trade

$7M Enrique Hernandez FA

$5M Martin Perez FA

$3.1M Hunter Renfroe FA

$3.0M Marwin Gonzalez FA

$2.1M Matt Andriese FA

$1.2M Hirokazu Sawamura

$800K Franchy Cordero Trade +$2.8M Beni

 

-$6.6M Andrew Benintendi ($5M lux tax)

 

Net cost: about $40M. Added 9 players- lost 1 (Beni)

[mvp 78]

If you had to pick, who is most likely to have a break-out All-Star campaign this year?

 

My choice on the mound is Eovaldi -- his stuff, age, experience, work-outs... he is due to finally have one put-it-altogether, healthy Cy Young type season.

 

For position players, where youth counts more for durability in the PED-testing era, I have to go with Verdugo. He has the enthusiasm and incentive to prove his new skipper right. But Devers and Bogie should be better with Cora, as well.

 

Verdugo should become a fan favorite this year. The further we get away from the Betts deal, the more we'll be able to enjoy Verdugo.

 

My breakout guy is going to be DHern who I think will be the closer by midseason.

[notin]

Verdugo should become a fan favorite this year. The further we get away from the Betts deal, the more we'll be able to enjoy Verdugo.

 

My breakout guy is going to be DHern who I think will be the closer by midseason.

 

So you think DHern will learn to throw a strike?

[mvp 78]

So you think DHern will learn to throw a strike?

 

When your k/9 is above 16, you can be effectively wild. I think his bb/9 gets to about 5.5.

[notin]

If you had to pick, who is most likely to have a break-out All-Star campaign this year?

 

Verdugo. I’d like to say Cordero but he needs to last a full season first.

 

My choice on the mound is Eovaldi -- his stuff, age, experience, work-outs... he is due to finally have one put-it-altogether, healthy Cy Young type season.[/Quote]

 

On the mound, I’d go with Pivetta. The parallels to Arrieta are uncanny. Eovaldi is more likely to break than break out.

[notin]

When your k/9 is above 16, you can be effectively wild. I think his bb/9 gets to about 5.5.

 

I don’t mind him in the 7th/8th innings. Or whenever the opposing best hitters are up...

[mvp 78]

I don’t mind him in the 7th/8th innings. Or whenever the opposing best hitters are up...

 

That's why he can be a closer. I think Barnes falters. They keep Ottavino in the 8th and DHern slides up to the 9th.