A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[notin]

Andriese is one of the better options in the pen IMO. Who of value would it force out? Who does keeping Whitlock force out?

 

We're not talking about some behemoth of a roster. Losing some of the lower end guys won't meaningfully impact this season.

 

If we rank the pen options, Andriese is probably 5th or 6th arm, depending on whether or not the Sox import the Japanese pitcher. I would place Brice, Valdez, and Whitlock below him. My hope is both Brice and Valdez can be removed from the initial bullpen, but I am not sure how likely that is.

 

Now if the Sox DFA Brice, would anyone sign him? I think if anyone claims him, he then becomes one of those pitchers who gets DFA'd every three days in hopes he can clear waivers and come back without taking up the roster spot. He might spend most of Spring Training packing and buying bus tickets...

[notin]

I'm still trying to figure out how Sox fans are underrating a guy like Renfroe. Even if we dismiss his .158 batting average from the Covid season, he's still a .228 career hitter.

 

Batting average is overrated. But OBP (.290) and K% (28%) are not.

 

OPS+ (106) does tell us Renfroe is an above average hitter for his career, and his splits indicate he has not always been a platoon player that has an inordinate number of at-bats vs LHP. But I still hope the Sox bring in a CF or RF and push him into a platoon with Benintendi..

[notin]

Andriese is one of the better options in the pen IMO. Who of value would it force out? Who does keeping Whitlock force out?

 

We're not talking about some behemoth of a roster. Losing some of the lower end guys won't meaningfully impact this season.

 

But it will meaningfully impact my decision to buy that Daniel Gossett jersey!!

[mvp 78]

But it will meaningfully impact my decision to buy that Daniel Gossett jersey!!

 

I'm sorry if you're buying AAA player jerseys. You can probably grab his game worn ST jersey at this year's Christmas at Fenway sidewalk sale.

[notin]

I'm sorry if you're buying AAA player jerseys. You can probably grab his game worn ST jersey at this year's Christmas at Fenway sidewalk sale.

 

As the pen stands today, what makes you think Gossett is destined for Worcester?

[moonslav59]

Andriese is one of the better options in the pen IMO. Who of value would it force out? Who does keeping Whitlock force out?

 

We're not talking about some behemoth of a roster. Losing some of the lower end guys won't meaningfully impact this season.

 

I agree, the bottom of our roster is full of players I would not miss, if they were traded, demoted or DFA'd.

 

I'd like to keep Whitlock for the future, but if he looks awful, this year, we may decide against hope and prayers and keep someone useful, now.

 

I only mentioned Andriese because he is out of options, not because I think he is our #8 pen guy.

 

He may be better than Taylor, which would place him in the 5 slot:

 

Ottavino

Barnes

DHern

Brasier

_____

[Bellhorn04]

I'm still trying to figure out how Sox fans are underrating a guy like Renfroe. Even if we dismiss his .158 batting average from the Covid season, he's still a .228 career hitter.

 

Power. He has a career .486 SLG. And a career .912 OPS vs. lefties.

 

As for last year's BA, Schwarber hit .188. How much did he sign for again?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Batting average is overrated. But OBP (.290) and K% (28%) are not.

 

OPS+ (106) does tell us Renfroe is an above average hitter for his career, and his splits indicate he has not always been a platoon player that has an inordinate number of at-bats vs LHP. But I still hope the Sox bring in a CF or RF and push him into a platoon with Benintendi..

 

b-WAR's scale calls a 2+ a "Starter"; at his best, Renfroe was a 2.3 and 2.7 in '18 and '19 (he was a zero -- or no better than a replacement player -- last year). b-WAR also calls 5+ "All-Star Quality"...

 

He's got power, but so did Wily Mo Pena (one of his comps). But how are Sox fans underrating him?

[moonslav59]

Power. He has a career .486 SLG. And a career .912 OPS vs. lefties.

 

As for last year's BA, Schwarber hit .188. How much did he sign for again?

 

Renfroe averages 40 HRs and 72 XBHs per 660 PAs.

 

He has 41 HRs in his last 633 PAs.

 

Maybe Fenway turns him into a monster. (In 11 PAs at Fenway, he has a 1.455 OPS. TINY SAMPLE SIZE ALERT!)

[notin]

Renfroe averages 40 HRs and 72 XBHs per 660 PAs.

 

He has 41 HRs in his last 633 PAs.

 

Maybe Fenway turns him into a monster. (In 11 PAs at Fenway, he has a 1.455 OPS. TINY SAMPLE SIZE ALERT!)

 

..carried heavily by a single 3 for 6 game where he homered of Kyle Hart and Marcus Walden and doubled against Jose Peraza.

 

Possibly not representative against actual MLB pitching...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

..carried heavily by a single 3 for 6 game where he homered of Kyle Hart and Marcus Walden and doubled against Jose Peraza.

 

Possibly not representative against actual MLB pitching...

 

I wouldn't trade Bronson Arroyo for him. But I actually think OBP can be a bit overrated for certain guys; I want my sluggers swinging more at borderline pitches they can drive rather than being too selective and walking a lot. Not from the heels, though -- Ks are worthless. That's why I have hope for Casas, who reportedly chokes up to make contact (until some pitchers at the next level find some weakness). Bregman chokes up, too.

[mvp 78]

Power. He has a career .486 SLG. And a career .912 OPS vs. lefties.

 

As for last year's BA, Schwarber hit .188. How much did he sign for again?

 

Yeah, he's just a platoon guy to help out in LF. Still need that CFer.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Yeah, he's just a platoon guy to help out in LF. Still need that CFer.

 

I'd be shocked if it's JBJ, especially with the number of years and dollars being discussed... unless, Bloom has a good offer for Duran -- the most likely prospect to deal (for a decent return) if the plan is to keep Bradley to improve the rotation's ERA.

[notin]

Yeah, he's just a platoon guy to help out in LF. Still need that CFer.

 

Or RF. As much as Verdugo is a better fit for RF than CF, the option cannot be ignored.

 

Although I think Pillar is the most likely option at this point, ahead of Puig...

[moonslav59]

Yeah, he's just a platoon guy to help out in LF. Still need that CFer.

 

Agreed.

 

I will say that Renfroe's numbers vs RHPs are not horrific. The .216 BA is, but he still hits a lot of HRs and has a slg% of .449 and an OPS of .717.

 

His 162 game averages?

 

47 HRs vs LHPs

36 HRs vs RHPs

 

In 2019, it was 53 v L and 39 HRs v R.

[mvp 78]

Or RF. As much as Verdugo is a better fit for RF than CF, the option cannot be ignored.

 

Although I think Pillar is the most likely option at this point, ahead of Puig...

 

A lot of the options I preferred are off the board.

 

I guess I'd just sign Marisnik?

[moonslav59]

Or RF. As much as Verdugo is a better fit for RF than CF, the option cannot be ignored.

 

Although I think Pillar is the most likely option at this point, ahead of Puig...

 

Agreed, but I still think EHern is our best option in CF.

 

The problem is, are there any 2Bmen left out there?

[mvp 78]

Agreed, but I still think EHern is our best option in CF.

 

The problem is, are there any 2Bmen left out there?

 

Nothing too exciting.

 

Only guys still available are Logan Forsythe, Marwin Gonzalez, Kipnis, Jed Lowrie and Addison Russell. Seems like they aren't going to sign anyone else.

[moonslav59]

A lot of the options I preferred are off the board.

 

I guess I'd just sign Marisnik?

 

If we want to keep some budget space for the deadline, he might be the best option.

 

If we float EHern between 2B and CF, we'd basically be deciding who to play: Marisnick or Arroyo/Chavis. Or, if we need offense, we go with Verdugo in CF, Renfroe in RF and Beni in LF, regardless of what handed pitcher is in the game. I could see us starting many games like that, and bringing in Marisnick for late inning defense.

[moonslav59]

Nothing too exciting.

 

Nobody is talking about Ole Jed.

[mvp 78]

If we want to keep some budget space for the deadline, he might be the best option.

 

If we float EHern between 2B and CF, we'd basically be deciding who to play: Marisnick or Arroyo/Chavis. Or, if we need offense, we go with Verdugo in CF, Renfroe in RF and Beni in LF, regardless of what handed pitcher is in the game. I could see us starting many games like that, and bringing in Marisnick for late inning defense.

 

I think it makes more sense to float Kiké between two positions, but still give him 150 games. He believes he'll be starting at 2b mostly, but that really just leaves huge question marks for the OF.

[notin]

Agreed, but I still think EHern is our best option in CF.

 

The problem is, are there any 2Bmen left out there?

 

He might be, but the initial buzz is he plays 2b...

[moonslav59]

I think it makes more sense to float Kiké between two positions, but still give him 150 games. He believes he'll be starting at 2b mostly, but that really just leaves huge question marks for the OF.

 

On paper, the best line-up we can put on the filed is Beni in LF, Verdugo in CF, Renfroe in RF and EHern at 2B. Currently, we have no 4th OF'er projected for the 26 man roster, except players already in the line-up at other positions: EHern at 2B, JD at DH and maybe Chavis at 1B/2B can play LF.

 

Starting EHern in CF and Arroyo or Chavis at 2B allows for Renfroe or Beni to PH (for Arroyo or Chavis?) or come in the game after a pitcher change, as EHern could then be moved to 2B.

 

The biggest plus, IMO, is on defense. Already, our defense looks somewhere between pretty bad to horrific. We really have no plus defender anywhere, except for Verdugo, if EHern plays 2B.

 

By moving EHern to CF, we improve the defense at 4 positions with one move!

 

Arroyo> EHern at 2B (barely)

Renfroe/Beni> just Beni in LF

EHern > Verdugo in CF

Verdugo> Renfroe in RF

 

On offense, it comes down to this comp:

 

Beni (.691) vs LHP or Chavis (.740) or Arroyo (.597)

 

Renfroe (.717) vs RHPs vs Arroyo (.678) or Chavis (.699)

 

One could argue, the offense improves by platooning Beni-Renfore in LF and not playing them both FT. Chavis and Arroyo might be better on offense. (Note how Chavis hits RHPs better than LHPs.)

 

Signing Marisnick won't improve the offense vs any pitcher.

.638 vs RHP/ .711 vs LHP

but his defense would help, especially as a late inning defensive replacement and being okay vs LHPs.

 

Signing Pillar would likely keep EHern at 2B near FT, despite the bad splits vs RHPs.

.678 vs RHP

.784 vs LHP

 

In theory, we should be looking for a great glove in CF who hits RHPs well, or just go with EHern in CF and let Arroyo and Chavis fight over 2B (Munoz/Arauz?) If they suck, make an in season trade for a 2Bman of CF'er.

 

[moonslav59]

He might be, but the initial buzz is he plays 2b...

 

True, but the initial buzz was we'd add a CF'er, and options are running thin. Only Pillar and Marisnick seem possible, unless we make a trade.

 

I'm not sure anyone would trade a CF'er for Beni or Arroyo.

[mvp 78]

According to Eno Sarris and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, MLB is making changes to the baseball for the 2021 season which will reduce offense.

Big news. In addition, five unidentified teams are adding humidors for storage of baseballs, bringing the total to 10 (the Rockies, Red Sox, Diamondbacks, Mets, and Mariners already use them) across the league. The Athletic obtained a memo which was sent to teams last Friday detailing the minor changes. The ball produced by Rawlings will be slightly less bouncy, but the overarching goal of these changes seem to be one of consistency. While this is being pitched as slight alterations, there will surely be some unintended consequences we can't possibly account for right now. Player evaluation was already going to be tough after the shortened 2020 campaign, but this makes it even more difficult.

 

It's almost like they have no idea about GOOD changes they could make to the game!

[a700hitter]

It’s astounding how league executives are so clueless about their business. They are almost entirely disconnected from their fan base.

[mvp 78]

@redsoxstats

A sentence in The Athletic today:

“the Rays tried hard to beat Bloom to Pivetta; ‘we think he can be another Glasnow,’ said a Rays official.”

[mvp 78]

It’s astounding how league executives are so clueless about their business. They are almost entirely disconnected from their fan base.

 

The new ball will be reduced in weight by under one-tenth of an ounce, and will also be slightly less bouncy (as determined by the coefficient of restitution, or COR). While the end result of these changes won’t be entirely known until we see the baseball in action during the season, the changes seem to have been made in order to “increase consistency in the ball” and also deaden it to some extent. An independent lab cited in the league memo detailed a reduction by one or two feet of distance on fly balls hit beyond 375 feet, and an analyst who spoke with Sarris and Rosenthal believes “it’ll be like adding five feet of outfield walls to every wall in the big leagues.” The analyst believes an overall five percent reduction in home runs is possible, though it isn’t yet known how the newer ball will be affected by drag.

 

Home run totals have soared over the last few seasons, which has led to criticism in both fan and league circles that the sport is becoming too homer-heavy and strikeout-heavy at the expense of more traditional and action-oriented station-to-station baseball. If the new ball is indeed successful at reducing home runs, Sarris and Rosenthal write that there is some risk “that it will leave the game with all those swings and misses and fewer big flies,” but it should also be noted that pitchers will surely also have to make some adjustments to how they grip and throw a slightly lighter ball.

 

Who the hell was complaining about HR totals? Wasn't it a HR chase that brought fans back after the 94 strike?

 

Station to station baseball is little league... Get out of here with that.

[moonslav59]

@redsoxstats

A sentence in The Athletic today:

“the Rays tried hard to beat Bloom to Pivetta; ‘we think he can be another Glasnow,’ said a Rays official.”

 

The Rays seem to know things like this, so good news, but harmony will show us his ZIPS projection, so we are doomed.

[Bellhorn04]

The Rays seem to know things like this, so good news, but harmony will show us his ZIPS projection, so we are doomed.

 

Yes, harmony is in full Cooler mode these days.