A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[notin]

Not sure why you think Stallings, who is older than Vazquez and who has only two season to date in which he has played more than 14 games, is the better of the two catchers.

 

Stallings is a AAAA/backup catcher who struggled to start on one of the worst teams in the league...

Edited January 31, 2021 by notin

[moonslav59]

Not sure why you think Stallings, who is older than Vazquez and who has only two season to date in which he has played more than 14 games, is the better of the two catchers.

 

Stallings is a AAAA/backup catcher who struggled to start on one of the worst teams in the league...

 

Where did I ever say Stallings was better than Vaz, although he might be with staff-handling skills. I said he had 4 years of control to 2 of Vaz and we also get two verry useful, though not great players in areas we need dearly.

 

My point was that Stallings + Frazier+ Brubaker > Vaz NOT Stallings > Vaz.

 

Those "two years" Stallings caught more were the last two years. It's not all that uncommon for a catcher to begin playing a lot around age 28-29. Stallings caught the vast majority of games in 2020.

 

In looking how he gets "the most" (or least) out of the staff, I found this:

 

ERA/OPPS against

 

with Musgrove:

4.03/.733 Diaz (112 IP)

4.31/.741 Stallings (117 IP)

4.82/.655 Murphy (9 IP)

 

with Taillon

3.72/.761 Stallings (29)

4.41/.764 Diaz (123)

 

with Trevor Williams

4.38/.793 Stallings (125)

6.50/.914 Diaz (126)

9.00/.970 Murphy (8)

 

While these numbers don't look great for Stallings, when you look at Vaz vs other Sox catchers, he sucks with our staff.

 

If you'd rather have Stassi, that could be arranged.

 

I do think Stallings is better than Stassi, Plawecki & Wong.

 

Edited January 31, 2021 by moonslav59

[Sox75]

https://www.facebook.com/611296005650790/posts/3628118707301823/

[moonslav59]

MLB Proposes 154 Game Schedule, extended playoffs, starting the season a month later & a universal DH.

 

I like all of these ideas, but I'm not sure the union will.

 

MLB Proposals

[Bellhorn04]

If they start a month later, that means this scintillating hot stove season will be a month longer.

[moonslav59]

If they start a month later, that means this scintillating hot stove season will be a month longer.

 

Plenty of time to sign all these FAs!

[notin]

Where did I ever say Stallings was better than Vaz, although he might be with staff-handling skills. I said he had 4 years of control to 2 of Vaz and we also get two verry useful, though not great players in areas we need dearly.

 

My point was that Stallings + Frazier+ Brubaker > Vaz NOT Stallings > Vaz.

 

Those "two years" Stallings caught more were the last two years. It's not all that uncommon for a catcher to begin playing a lot around age 28-29. Stallings caught the vast majority of games in 2020.

 

In looking how he gets "the most" (or least) out of the staff, I found this:

 

ERA/OPPS against

 

with Musgrove:

4.03/.733 Diaz (112 IP)

4.31/.741 Stallings (117 IP)

4.82/.655 Murphy (9 IP)

 

with Taillon

3.72/.761 Stallings (29)

4.41/.764 Diaz (123)

 

with Trevor Williams

4.38/.793 Stallings (125)

6.50/.914 Diaz (126)

9.00/.970 Murphy (8)

 

While these numbers don't look great for Stallings, when you look at Vaz vs other Sox catchers, he sucks with our staff.

 

If you'd rather have Stassi, that could be arranged.

 

I do think Stallings is better than Stassi, Plawecki & Wong.

 

 

I misunderstood, like I cut that sentence off early.

 

But right now, Stallings is cheaper and has more control. But I stand by my assessment of him as “middling”. He’s a 30yo catcher with very little playing time who struggled to start on a bad team. The ERA/OPS numbers don’t reveal much outside of with Trevor Williams. At the number of IP for Musgrove, for example, the difference is roughly 3 ER, and at that point another factor becomes who Musgrove was actually pitching to. Or what the rest of the defense looked like.

 

If the Sox deal Vazquez, Stallings might be an adequate stopgap, but not much more. And dealing Vazquez to replace him at catcher (which I know is a small portion of the deal) doesn’t create a situation going forward that’s necessarily any better than keeping a prospect or two deemed sufficient enough to acquire Vazquez.

 

Bloom might even feel dealing Chavis is counterproductive, unlike me.

[jad]

If they start a month later, that means this scintillating hot stove season will be a month longer.

 

(Have you heard anything about the minor leagues, other than that the start 'will be delayed'?)

[moonslav59]

I misunderstood, like I cut that sentence off early.

 

But right now, Stallings is cheaper and has more control. But I stand by my assessment of him as “middling”. He’s a 30yo catcher with very little playing time who struggled to start on a bad team. The ERA/OPS numbers don’t reveal much outside of with Trevor Williams. At the number of IP for Musgrove, for example, the difference is roughly 3 ER, and at that point another factor becomes who Musgrove was actually pitching to. Or what the rest of the defense looked like.

 

If the Sox deal Vazquez, Stallings might be an adequate stopgap, but not much more. And dealing Vazquez to replace him at catcher (which I know is a small portion of the deal) doesn’t create a situation going forward that’s necessarily any better than keeping a prospect or two deemed sufficient enough to acquire Vazquez.

 

Bloom might even feel dealing Chavis is counterproductive, unlike me.

 

I didn't provide the CERA-type data to prove Stallings was a wonder in that area- just to show he's not sucky like Vaz is in that area.

 

The BTV site adds value for years of control, but they have Vaz ranked 9th and Stallings 12th among Major League level catchers.

[jacksonianmarch]

If you’re rebuilding and likely to have young pitchers, it’s imperative to have a veteran, defensive minded catcher who can manage young pitchers well. Pitching coaches are important, but in game, the catcher is the best pitching coach

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If they start a month later, that means this scintillating hot stove season will be a month longer.

 

I've got a wood stove ablazing in my basement, but it freezes over whenever I approach it for Red Sox news.

[moonslav59]

If you’re rebuilding and likely to have young pitchers, it’s imperative to have a veteran, defensive minded catcher who can manage young pitchers well. Pitching coaches are important, but in game, the catcher is the best pitching coach

 

I think this is one of the most under-rated aspects of the game. I'm not sure how much MLB GMs value this aspect of a catcher's skillset, or if they view Vaz as lacking in this area, as I do.

 

My guess is some GMs value this more than others, and since it is a very hard skill to objectively quantify, there are probably some varying opinions on which catchers are big pluses or minuses in this area.

 

That being said, this is one reason I have identified Vazquez as a possible trade candidate, despite the fact that his salary is not all that high.

 

He has two years of team control. I get how we are trying to look good, this year and next, but to me, out biggest priority is 2022 and beyond.

 

I'm not going to get into the data, once again, but I will say that almost every single pitcher we've had here in recent year that have had significant sample sizes with Vaz and another catcher on our team, did better with the other catcher. On top of that, if you look at the unbalanced sample sizes and smaller sample sizes, just about all of them showed pitchers performing better with any of our catchers not names Vaz. (Swihart is the only exception.)

 

I'm not for handing Vaz away. I'm not for trading him away just for the sake of doing something. I'm not sure how much other GMs value him, but I do know several competitive teams would love to upgrade their catching position. I doubt Vaz would be a fit for a rebuilding team looking 3+ years down the road.

[moonslav59]

A possible everyone healthy 26 man roster, as of now...

 

13 pitchers

SP: Sale, ERod, Eovaldi, Richards, Perez, Pivetta (long relief)

RP: Ottavino, Barnes, Brasier, DHern, Taylor, Houck/Andriese, Whitlock/Brice

 

13 non pitchers

C: Vazquez, Plawecki

1B: Dalbec

2B: Arroyo, Chavis (EHern)

3B: Devers

SS: Bogaerts

LF: Beni, Renfroe

CF: EHern (Verdugo)

RF: Verdugo (Renfroe)

DH: Martinez

26th man: Wilson (AA), Puello or Munoz (not on 40 man) or add 2B (Schoop?) or CF (Pillar?).

 

 

[notin]

A possible everyone healthy 26 man roster, as of now...

 

13 pitchers

SP: Sale, ERod, Eovaldi, Richards, Perez, Pivetta (long relief)

RP: Ottavino, Barnes, Brasier, DHern, Taylor, Houck/Andriese, Whitlock/Brice

 

13 non pitchers

C: Vazquez, Plawecki

1B: Dalbec

2B: Arroyo, Chavis (EHern)

3B: Devers

SS: Bogaerts

LF: Beni, Renfroe

CF: EHern (Verdugo)

RF: Verdugo (Renfroe)

DH: Martinez

26th man: Wilson (AA), Puello or Munoz (not on 40 man) or add 2B (Schoop?) or CF (Pillar?).

 

 

 

I'm calling it - Reddick is that 26th man...

[moonslav59]

I'm calling it - Reddick is that 26th man...

 

I'd prefer Schoop or Colome, if we can only add one more player, but Colome would not fill the 13th nonpitcher slot.

 

If we don't get a 2Bman, I'd like to see a CF'er not a RF'er.

 

Pillar?

[notin]

I'd prefer Schoop or Colome, if we can only add one more player, but Colome would not fill the 13th nonpitcher slot.

 

If we don't get a 2Bman, I'd like to see a CF'er not a RF'er.

 

Pillar?

 

I would think Pillar is in play, as are a few others. I just think if they are looking for the option that least affects the budget, Reddick might be the way to go.

 

When Renfroe was signed, ae all assumed he as going to platoon with Benintendi in LF. And maybe he will. But I am not as certain that is the plan as I once was. We also all assume Verdugo is th RF, and maybe he should be, and maybe he will be. But again, that may not be the actual plan here.

 

And if Renfroe is to be the RF platoon (which is what he has done for most of his career), then they would need a LHH to accompany him. Reddick certainly fits the bill.

 

Of course, we also all assumed Hernandez was signed to play 2B. And maybe that is not the case. His metrics in CF are actually very good, as opposed to the passable ones at 2B.

 

So right now, the Sox could be looking for a CF or a RF or a 2B. Or they could just install Chavis at 2B, move Hernandez to CF, and keep Verdugo in RF.

 

So many questions. So little time....

[moonslav59]

I would think Pillar is in play, as are a few others. I just think if they are looking for the option that least affects the budget, Reddick might be the way to go.

 

When Renfroe was signed, ae all assumed he as going to platoon with Benintendi in LF. And maybe he will. But I am not as certain that is the plan as I once was. We also all assume Verdugo is th RF, and maybe he should be, and maybe he will be. But again, that may not be the actual plan here.

 

And if Renfroe is to be the RF platoon (which is what he has done for most of his career), then they would need a LHH to accompany him. Reddick certainly fits the bill.

 

Of course, we also all assumed Hernandez was signed to play 2B. And maybe that is not the case. His metrics in CF are actually very good, as opposed to the passable ones at 2B.

 

So right now, the Sox could be looking for a CF or a RF or a 2B. Or they could just install Chavis at 2B, move Hernandez to CF, and keep Verdugo in RF.

 

So many questions. So little time....

 

I could see the Sox making no more significant moves. They may just sign a 5th OF'er for defense, like Marisnick or Hamilton. Keep some cash to add a player or two mid-season, when contracts are pro-rated, assuming we are not sellers at the deadline.

 

Give Arroyo, Chavis and maybe later, if they both fail, Arauz or Munoz a chance to win the 2B job, at least if and until Downs shows he deserves a shot.

 

I really like EHern in CF. He is much better, defensively, there than at 2B.

 

So, we start the year with this line-up:

 

1. Beni/Renfroe LF

2. Verdugo RF

3. Bogaerts SS

4. Devers 3B

5. JD DH

6. Dalbec/Chavis 1B

7. Chavis/Arroyo 2B

8. Vazquez C

9. Hernandez CF

 

Bench: Plawecki, Beni or Renfroe, Arroyo or Chavis, Marisnick

[mvp 78]

I'd prefer Schoop or Colome, if we can only add one more player, but Colome would not fill the 13th nonpitcher slot.

 

If we don't get a 2Bman, I'd like to see a CF'er not a RF'er.

 

Pillar?

 

Pillar would be brought in to be the 4th OFer in this situation as they would platoon him with Renfroe and start Kiké in CF. If they don't grab a 2b, it'd be Arroyo.

 

I agree that it's likely this happens (or some form) and they only add the OFer above and some leftover reliever.

[kenmeister]

Maybe a stupid question, but why can't Houck become the new closer? My understanding is that he has electric stuff, but only 2 pitches; wouldn't that be perfect in the closing role?

[notin]

Maybe a stupid question, but why can't Houck become the new closer? My understanding is that he has electric stuff, but only 2 pitches; wouldn't that be perfect in the closing role?

 

I'm sure it has come up.

[notin]

Pillar would be brought in to be the 4th OFer in this situation as they would platoon him with Renfroe and start Kiké in CF. If they don't grab a 2b, it'd be Arroyo.

 

I agree that it's likely this happens (or some form) and they only add the OFer above and some leftover reliever.

 

Why not start Pillar, who has been a starter for the bulk of his career?

[mvp 78]

Why not start Pillar, who has been a starter for the bulk of his career?

 

Kiké has a higher career OPS and higher UZR/150 in CF. He's also signed for longer and is younger.

[moonslav59]

Pillar would be brought in to be the 4th OFer in this situation as they would platoon him with Renfroe and start Kiké in CF. If they don't grab a 2b, it'd be Arroyo.

 

I agree that it's likely this happens (or some form) and they only add the OFer above and some leftover reliever.

 

I'm thinking, if we sign Pillar and not a 2Bman, it would mean EHern would be the primary 2Bman. The OF would be like this:

 

LF: Beni-Renfroe platoon

CF: Pillar (EHern?)

RF: Verdugo

 

There may be days where Pillar is "rested" vs RHPs, and on those days, I suppose Verdugo would play CF, Renfroe RF and Beni LF, but they could also play EHern in CF vs most RHPs and essentially platoon Pillar and Arroyo/Chavis, although they all bat RH'd. (Note: Arroyo & Chavis both hit RHPs better than LHPs in limited ML sample sizes.)

 

Here are the career splits:

 

vs RHP

.821 Beni (.740 from 2019-2020)

.810 Verdugo (.830)

.740 Chavis (.740)

.717 Renfroe (.699)

.678 Pillar (.685)

.678 Arroyo (.833)

.673 EHern (.687)

 

vs LHP

.912 Renfroe (.879)

.820 EHern (.739)

.788 Verdugo (.821)

.784 Pillar (.870)

.699 Chavis (.699)

.691 Beni (.778)

.597 Arroyo (.551)

 

I think Pillar's defense outweighs the slightly better OPS by Renfroe vs RHPs to bench Pillar, but EHern's numbers and defense in CF might make a Pillar-EHern platoon in CF make some sense, while also having a EHern-Arroyo/Chavis platoon at 2B occur, at the same time.

 

It looks like we want to avoid using Renfroe and Pillar vs RHPs. While EHern might have the lowest OPS v RHPs, his defense in CF outweighs the slight differential on offense vs Pillar/Renfroe.

 

It looks like Arroyo should never start vs a LHP and Beni has done better vs LHPs in the last 2 seasons than earlier in his career.

 

I might think this would be the best alignment, assuming we sign Pillar:

 

vs RHP:

2B: Arroyo/Chavis

LF: Beni

CF: EHern

RF: Verddugo

 

vs LHP:

2B: EHern

LF: Renfroe

CF: Pillar

RF: Verdugo

Edited February 1, 2021 by moonslav59

[notin]

Kiké has a higher career OPS and higher UZR/150 in CF. He's also signed for longer and is younger.

 

He wouldn't be benched. Maybe the plan is to actually play him at 2B.

 

Also, Pillar has not even been signed yet, so we don't know if Kike's deal is longer...

[moonslav59]

Just sign Schoop and solve 4 problems at once:

 

1. Solidify the LF Beni-Renfroe platoon and improve the LF defense a little.

2. Keep Verdugo in RF near FT and improve RF defense over having Renfroe out there.

3. Improve CF defense by playing EHern there, instead of Verdugo.

4. Improve 2B offense while not hurting 2B defense.

 

vs RHP

.821 Beni (.740 from 2019-2020)

.810 Verdugo (.830)

.754 Schoop (.753)

.740 Chavis (.740)

.717 Renfroe (.699)

.678 Pillar (.685)

.678 Arroyo (.833)

.673 EHern (.687)

 

vs LHP

.912 Renfroe (.879)

.820 EHern (.739)

.788 Verdugo (.821)

.784 Pillar (.870)

.726 Schoop (.873)

.699 Chavis (.699)

.691 Beni (.778)

.597 Arroyo (.551)

 

2B: Schoop full time (EHern back-up)

LF: Beni-Renfroe

CF: EHern full time

RF: Verdugo

 

Better offense- better defense.

 

One signing.

[moonslav59]

Here is a comp of the better of the two OPS (career or 2019-2020) of the Sox with or without Schoop at 2B:

 

With Schoop:

v R

.830 Verdugo RF

.821 Beni LF

.754 Schoop 2B (.833 Arroyo)

.687 EHern CF

v L

.912 Renfroe LF

.873 Schoop 2B

.821 Verdugo RF

.820 EHern CF

 

Without Schoop:

v R

(.833 Arroyo? 2B)

.830 Verdugo CF

.821 Beni LF

.717 Renfroe RF

.687 EHern CF/2B (see Arroyo)

v L

.912 Renfroe RF

.821 Verdugo CF

.820 EHern 2B

.778 Beni LF

 

with Pillar (no Schoop)

v R

.830 Verdugo RF

.821 Beni LF

.687 EHern 2B (.833 Arroyo?)

.685 Pillar CF (.687 EHern?)

v L

.912 Renfroe LF

.821 Verdugo RF

.820 EHern 2B

.784 Pillar CF

 

.

[mvp 78]

He wouldn't be benched. Maybe the plan is to actually play him at 2B.

 

Also, Pillar has not even been signed yet, so we don't know if Kike's deal is longer...

 

Pillar only signed a one year deal last year. I don't think he'll get longer than that this time around.

[notin]

Pillar only signed a one year deal last year. I don't think he'll get longer than that this time around.

 

Very likely. But we don't know any of this until it actually becomes official, which it never might.

 

and hey, maybe they get him for a 2 year low AAV deal...

[moonslav59]

Very likely. But we don't know any of this until it actually becomes official, which it never might.

 

and hey, maybe they get him for a 2 year low AAV deal...

 

Maybe a 1 year deal with a buy-out option year like Perez.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Not basing this on any facts, just wondering if a guy who signed here a year ago and got traded after playing half a season (30 games in '20) would maybe not want to risk repeating that experience. I know money talks, but if there's an equal offer, how many veteran employees of any industry would prefer to keep transferring job locations?