A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[moonslav59]

Renfroe is 912 vs LHP and 717 vs RHP. Much better in a platoon.

 

It's easy to find a platoon for him at min cost.

 

Even Chavis, who hits RHPs (.740) better than LHPs (.699) could fill that role.

 

I do like the idea of a Beni-Renfroe LF platoon, but our CF need outweighs that plus.

 

We could just sign Schoop and have the best of both worlds, but the Beni-Frazier trade does not add to the budget as signing Schoop would.

 

(I'm not sure signing Moreland to cover for a Dalbec implosion would be a good fit for a LF platoon with Renfroe.)

Edited January 28, 2021 by moonslav59

[notin]

It's easy to find a platoon for him at min cost.

 

Even Chavis, who hits RHPs (.740) better than LHPs (.699) could fill that role.

 

I do like the idea of a Beni-Renfroe LF platoon, but our CF need outweighs that plus.

 

We could just sign Schoop and have the best of both worlds, but the Beni-Frazier trade does not add to the budget as signing Schoop would.

 

(I'm not sure signing Moreland to cover for a Dalbec implosion would be a good fit for a LF platoon with Renfroe.)

 

How about:

 

C: Vazquez

1B: Dalbec

2B: Chavis

3B: Devers

SS: Bogaerts

LF: Benintendi/Renfroe

CF: E Hernandez

RF: Verdugo

 

BN: Plawecki, Arroyo, Moreland

 

SP: Rodriguez/Odorizzi/Eovaldi/Richards/Perez

BP: Ottavino/Barnes/Brasier/D Hernandez/Houck/Taylor/Whitlock/Andriese/Pivetta

 

Just two signings away...

[moonslav59]

How about:

 

C: Vazquez

1B: Dalbec

2B: Chavis

3B: Devers

SS: Bogaerts

LF: Benintendi/Renfroe

CF: E Hernandez

RF: Verdugo

 

BN: Plawecki, Arroyo, Moreland

 

SP: Rodriguez/Odorizzi/Eovaldi/Richards/Perez

BP: Ottavino/Barnes/Brasier/D Hernandez/Houck/Taylor/Whitlock/Andriese/Pivetta

 

Just two signings away...

 

Not bad.

 

I'm no big Chavis fan, but I think he deserves one more extended look, so why not give him the inside edge at 2B? If he sputters, give Arroyo another look. If he sputters, and Munoz is doing well in AAA, then maybe add him to the roster and roll the dice again.

 

If we go oh for 3, then we look for a 2Bman or CF'er at that point.

 

Depending on what Moreland and Schoop cost, I'd prefer Schoop, and keep Chavis as the back up 1Bman.

[notin]

Not bad.

 

I'm no big Chavis fan, but I think he deserves one more extended look, so why not give him the inside edge at 2B? If he sputters, give Arroyo another look. If he sputters, and Munoz is doing well in AAA, then maybe add him to the roster and roll the dice again.

 

If we go oh for 3, then we look for a 2Bman or CF'er at that point.

 

Depending on what Moreland and Schoop cost, I'd prefer Schoop, and keep Chavis as the back up 1Bman.

 

That works too.

 

Schoop seems to only get 1 year deals, but they have in the $6-9 mill range...

[moonslav59]

That works too.

 

Schoop seems to only get 1 year deals, but they have in the $6-9 mill range...

 

So, if Moreland gets $2M, getting Schoop for $5-6M might be just $3-4M more.

 

If we are trying to stay under the line, the difference is significant.

[moonslav59]

How about:

 

C: Vazquez

1B: Dalbec

2B: Chavis

3B: Devers

SS: Bogaerts

LF: Benintendi/Renfroe

CF: E Hernandez

RF: Verdugo

 

BN: Plawecki, Arroyo, Moreland

 

SP: Rodriguez/Odorizzi/Eovaldi/Richards/Perez

BP: Ottavino/Barnes/Brasier/D Hernandez/Houck/Taylor/Whitlock/Andriese/Pivetta

 

Just two signings away...

 

(You forgot DH: JD Martinez)

 

These two signings might do the trick, too:

 

C Vaz, Plawecki

1B Dalbec, Chavis

2B Schoop, Arroyo

3B Devers

SS Bogey

LF Beni-Renfroe

CF Hernandez

RF Verdugo

DH JD

 

ERod, Eovaldi, Richards, Perez, Pivetta

Colome, Ottavino, Barnes, Brasier, DHern, Houck, Taylor, Whitlock/Andriese

 

Edited January 29, 2021 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Would this team be a legit 2021 contender?

 

C Vaz, Plawecki

1B Dalbec, Chavis

2B K Wong, Arroyo

3B Devers

SS Bogey

LF Beni-Renfroe

CF Hernandez

RF Verdugo

DH JD

 

Odorizzi, ERod, Eovaldi, Richards, Perez, Pivetta (Sale)

Colome, Ottavino, Barnes, Brasier, DHern, Houck, Taylor, Whitlock/Andriese

 

 

[notin]

So, if Moreland gets $2M, getting Schoop for $5-6M might be just $3-4M more.

 

If we are trying to stay under the line, the difference is significant.

 

Odorizzi needs to be the priority. Three years works for any timeline. Screw the tax limit; we just reset!

[moonslav59]

Odorizzi needs to be the priority. Three years works for any timeline. Screw the tax limit; we just reset!

 

If we sign Odorizzi and go over, we might as well sign Colome and a 2Bman (Wong or Schoop), too.

 

If Sale ends up returning to norm, and with all the contracts running out after 2021, many at or near dead weight, we may be able to re-set in 2022 or 2023 while staying competitive.

[Nick]

If we sign Odorizzi and go over, we might as well sign Colome and a 2Bman (Wong or Schoop), too.

 

If Sale ends up returning to norm, and with all the contracts running out after 2021, many at or near dead weight, we may be able to re-set in 2022 or 2023 while staying competitive.

 

Lets' look at it in total context....

 

With pandemic and shortened sixty game season, I really had no problem Sox having one of worst season in memory. We had no shot at the world series or getting into the playoffs. Bright side was that we were rewarded with a fourth pick in each round (I'm guessing on rounds 2 and below).

 

I really don't see any problem going over the limit and resetting our 'budget' as $228M. The penalty is measly $4M.

 

I'm impressed with Bloom always garnering additional players, younger players in each trade he makes. Our farm system is getting restocked and I believe that will continue.

 

As long as there are no long term deals, I'm really good with it.

 

Sooooo, according to Cot's, we still have $28M to spend (plus $4M in penalty). Spend away....just no 5 year, $100M deals or bigger. (exceptions can be made by this board)

Edited January 29, 2021 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Lets' look at it in total context....

 

With pandemic and shortened sixty game season, I really had no problem Sox having one of worst season in memory. We had no shot at the world series or getting into the playoffs. Bright side was that we were rewarded with a fourth pick in each round (I'm guessing on rounds 2 and below).

 

I really don't see any problem going over the limit and resetting our 'budget' as $228M. The penalty is measly $4M.

 

I'm impressed with Bloom always garnering additional players, younger players in each trade he makes. Our farm system is getting restocked and I believe that will continue.

 

As long as there are no long term deals, I'm really good with it.

 

Sooooo, according to Cot's, we still have $28M to spend (plus $4M in penalty). Spend away....just no 5 year, $100M deals or bigger. (exceptions can be made by this board)

 

I kinda saw the value in pushing the tax re-set back one more year, but I'm starting to see a team with a chance, if we just add 3 players- none of which are big risk or more than 3 years in length.

 

Just sign Ordorizzi to 3 years, Colome to 2 or 3 years and K Wong or Schoop to 1-3 years. That could be less than $28M and maybe even have enough for Moreland, too.

 

With 3-4 roster additions, we could even trade Chavis and maybe a couple other players for some non 40 man roster prospects.

 

Draft well and get competitive while the farm improves.

 

With Odorizzi, Kolten Wong, Colome and Moreland or Marisnick, I think we'd be favored to make the playoffs.

 

Better, yet, making the playoffs would drive jacko nutty!

Edited January 29, 2021 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

1. Kolten Wong 2B (.358 OBP last 2 seasons combined)

2. Verdugo RF

3. Bogaerts SS

4. Devers 3B

5. JD DH

6. Beni/Renfroe LF

7. Dalbec/Moreland 1B

8. Vazquez C

9. Hernandez CF

 

Odorizzi, ERod, Eovaldi, Richards, Perez/Sale

Colome, Ottavino, Barnes, Brasier, DHern, Taylor, Houck, Pivetta

 

[jacksonianmarch]

Would this team be a legit 2021 contender?

 

C Vaz, Plawecki

1B Dalbec, Chavis

2B K Wong, Arroyo

3B Devers

SS Bogey

LF Beni-Renfroe

CF Hernandez

RF Verdugo

DH JD

 

Odorizzi, ERod, Eovaldi, Richards, Perez, Pivetta (Sale)

Colome, Ottavino, Barnes, Brasier, DHern, Houck, Taylor, Whitlock/Andriese

 

 

 

In the AL West, maybe. Being in the same division as an in window Yankee team, an in window (if not diminished from a WS berth) Rays team and a loaded Jays team does you no favors.

[moonslav59]

In the AL West, maybe. Being in the same division as an in window Yankee team, an in window (if not diminished from a WS berth) Rays team and a loaded Jays team does you no favors.

 

It will be harder to make the wild card game due to having to play so many games vs NYY & TOR, but that was not the question asked.

[oldtimer]

Not bad.

 

I'm no big Chavis fan, but I think he deserves one more extended look, so why not give him the inside edge at 2B? If he sputters, give Arroyo another look. If he sputters, and Munoz is doing well in AAA, then maybe add him to the roster and roll the dice again.

 

If we go oh for 3, then we look for a 2Bman or CF'er at that point.

 

Depending on what Moreland and Schoop cost, I'd prefer Schoop, and keep Chavis as the back up 1Bman.

 

An article this morning claims we are 7 to 10 million from a $210 cap now without money for contingency later in the season. Identifying 2 or 3 more players we could sign doesn't line up very well if we plan to stay under the cap in a year we probably won't be serious contenders. Moving a player to make room for prospects coming up or a quality signing in the outfield makes more sense. Beni and Chavis are places to look but neither seems to be in demand.

[oldtimer]

1. Kolten Wong 2B (.358 OBP last 2 seasons combined)

2. Verdugo RF

3. Bogaerts SS

4. Devers 3B

5. JD DH

6. Beni/Renfroe LF

7. Dalbec/Moreland 1B

8. Vazquez C

9. Hernandez CF

 

Odorizzi, ERod, Eovaldi, Richards, Perez/Sale

Colome, Ottavino, Barnes, Brasier, DHern, Taylor, Houck, Pivetta

 

 

Don't think it is quite strong enough to be in contention and definitely pushes us over the salary cap.

[moonslav59]

An article this morning claims we are 7 to 10 million from a $210 cap now without money for contingency later in the season. Identifying 2 or 3 more players we could sign doesn't line up very well if we plan to stay under the cap in a year we probably won't be serious contenders. Moving a player to make room for prospects coming up or a quality signing in the outfield makes more sense. Beni and Chavis are places to look but neither seems to be in demand.

 

Moving Chavis does not save us any money.

 

Apparently, there is no firm directive to stay under the tax line, but I do think it is a high priority that could be overturned, if the "right player" came along. (I doubt that player is out there.)

 

I think we'll stay $2-5M under the line to start the year, and if we look like we might be in the running, we may decide to go over at the deadline.

 

If we spend it all, right now, and stay under the tax line, we could probably add just one from Colome or Schoop.

[moonslav59]

Don't think it is quite strong enough to be in contention and definitely pushes us over the salary cap.

 

I think it gets us to serious WC contention, but we certainly won't be a top 4-5 team in MLB.

 

We could maybe be ranked 4th or 5th in the AL, but two of the teams ahead of us are in the AL East (NYY & TOR).

 

It might be enough to see us pass TBR, but I never count them out. The CWS & Astros would be close but ahead- maybe.

Edited January 29, 2021 by moonslav59

[notin]

It will be harder to make the wild card game due to having to play so many games vs NYY & TOR, but that was not the question asked.

 

There is a partial trade off with those teams (and Tampa) playing each other...

[Bellhorn04]

Jaxo is correct that we're in a pretty freakin' tough division.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Jaxo is correct that we're in a pretty freakin' tough division.

 

Yup, Sox fans who truly feel this is a playoff contender better hope the MLB expands the tournament again this year (which probably will happen).

[kenmeister]

1. Kolten Wong 2B (.358 OBP last 2 seasons combined)

2. Verdugo RF

3. Bogaerts SS

4. Devers 3B

5. JD DH

6. Beni/Renfroe LF

7. Dalbec/Moreland 1B

8. Vazquez C

9. Hernandez CF

 

Odorizzi, ERod, Eovaldi, Richards, Perez/Sale

Colome, Ottavino, Barnes, Brasier, DHern, Taylor, Houck, Pivetta

 

 

Maybe a stupid question, but we badly need a closer and if Colome is still out there, why the heck haven't we signed him???

[moonslav59]

Jaxo is correct that we're in a pretty freakin' tough division.

 

It is much harder for 2 wild card teams to come from the same division, but that doesn't mean we can't or won't be at a serious wild card contender level.

[moonslav59]

Maybe a stupid question, but we badly need a closer and if Colome is still out there, why the heck haven't we signed him???

 

I hope we don't think Barnes and Ottavino are enough.

[Bellhorn04]

I hope we don't think Barnes and Ottavino are enough.

 

Chaim isn't done yet.

[notin]

Maybe a stupid question, but we badly need a closer and if Colome is still out there, why the heck haven't we signed him???

 

Cannot force him to sign.

 

And there are other closers still out there. Keone Kela, for example. Other available free agents with closing experience include Falmouth native Steve Cishek, Shane Greene, Mark Melancon, Ian Kennedy, Dave Robertson, Sergio Romo, Hector Rondon, Trevor Rosenthal, Joakim Soria, Brandon Workman, Sean Doolittle, Jake McGee, Tony Watson and Justin Wilson.

 

Not all of them necessarily have good days ahead of them...

[notin]

It is much harder for 2 wild card teams to come from the same division, but that doesn't mean we can't or won't be at a serious wild card contender level.

 

Last year there were 3 from one division

[Bellhorn04]

Cannot force him to sign.

 

And there are other closers still out there. Keone Kela, for example. Other available free agents with closing experience include Falmouth native Steve Cishek, Shane Greene, Mark Melancon, Ian Kennedy, Dave Robertson, Sergio Romo, Hector Rondon, Trevor Rosenthal, Joakim Soria, Brandon Workman, Sean Doolittle, Jake McGee, Tony Watson and Justin Wilson.

 

Not all of them necessarily have good days ahead of them...

 

Some of them probably do though.

[notin]

Some of them probably do though.

 

There are several names there that do not excite me, including Melancon, Kennedy, McGee, Wilson, Watson, Robertson ad the oft-injured Doolittle.

 

And not sure how much Romo has left in the tank. Ditto Cishek and Soria

 

But.. Colome, Kela, Rondon, Greene, Workman and Rosenthal all work for me

[mvp 78]

@PeteAbe

Cashman says MLB teams still not sure how many players and staff can be invited to spring training, what the protocols will be, etc.

 

Says MLB/MLBPA are working it out and there's only general guidance to this point.

 

Well, it is almost February. No cause for alarm!

 

This season is not starting on time. No way. Owners want to play less games and then cry poor during the CBA negotiations in the fall/winter.