A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[notin]

Why is Aybar a RFer?

 

You've seen him pitch...

[mvp 78]

You've seen him pitch...

 

No one has seen him pitch in over a year.

 

He is a converted OFer, correct? Maybe his bat finally came around!

[kenmeister]

He is listed as DHern...

 

Oh! I guess I thought he was being groomed to be a starter?

[moonslav59]

Why is Aybar a RFer?

 

LOL, my bad. I meant to move him. I had copied and pasted a list I had of players "on the bubble" and then moved them to their rightful positions, but I missed him.

[moonslav59]

Yes, that's a problem with nearly any BTV approved trade. Just because the numbers line up, doesn't mean it's feasible. BTV isn't sophisticated enough to determine what a player's value would be to a particular team.

 

There are certainly flaws with the site, but it does offer an interesting "framework" to play around with trade ideas.

[mvp 78]

Oh! I guess I thought he was being groomed to be a starter?

 

There's an outside chance that they would go this way, but his lack of control puts him in the pen most likely.

[mvp 78]

There are certainly flaws with the site, but it does offer an interesting "framework" to play around with trade ideas.

 

At least it throws out redonkulous trades that have no basis in reality.

[harmony]

There are certainly flaws with the site, but it does offer an interesting "framework" to play around with trade ideas.

Baseball Trade Values identifies the proper variables: years of team control, salary, age, well-established production projections. By doing so the website draws us closer to the elusive truth.

 

Or not.

 

One could dispute the value BTV assigns to a particular variable.

 

Too often a fan will consider only one or two of those variables (or none, relying soley on name recognition). The result can be unrealistic trade proposals.

[mvp 78]

Baseball Trade Values identifies the proper variables: years of team control, salary, age, well-established production projections. By doing so the website draws us closer to the elusive truth.

 

Or not.

 

One could dispute the value BTV assigns to a particular variable.

 

Too often a fan will consider only one or two of those variables (or none, relying soley on name recognition). The result can be unrealistic trade proposals.

 

Name recognition IS a variable though, just not a great one for long term success. Players are brought to new organizations all the time based on their star power rather than their expected value on the field.

[notin]

At least it throws out redonkulous trades that have no basis in reality.

 

I think the trades are largely fair for the most part. But that doesn't mean one or both sides are interested.

 

Just because I need a car and do the math and conclude I can afford a Cadillac doesn't mean I have to go out and buy one. If I decide I do not like that car, it doesn't mean my financial calculations were wrong...

[notin]

Name recognition IS a variable though, just not a great one for long term success. Players are brought to new organizations all the time based on their star power rather than their expected value on the field.

 

Sometimes in their articles, they telll you they do include such factors. They had an article at the end of last season about why Betts had such a high value despite the one year of control, and one of the reasons was his Q factor...

[mvp 78]

Sometimes in their articles, they telll you they do include such factors. They had an article at the end of last season about why Betts had such a high value despite the one year of control, and one of the reasons was his Q factor...

 

Makes sense to me.

[harmony]

Name recognition IS a variable though, just not a great one for long term success. Players are brought to new organizations all the time based on their star power rather than their expected value on the field.

That was truer two decades ago than it is in today's analytical front offices.

[mvp 78]

That was truer two decades ago than it is in today's analytical front offices.

 

Pablo Sandoval was pretty damn recent.

[notin]

Pablo Sandoval was pretty damn recent.

 

Carl Crawford, too...

[mvp 78]

Carl Crawford, too...

 

I remember.

 

[Bellhorn04]

Carl Crawford, too...

 

Even more recent-Bryce Harper.

 

Baseball Trade Values has his contract underwater by 92.9 million.

[moonslav59]

Even more recent-Bryce Harper.

 

Baseball Trade Values has his contract underwater by 92.9 million.

 

It's a good thing we dumped Betts just in time.

 

His value is -28.

 

Maybe they'll take Eovaldi (-11) and JD (-22) for Betts (-28), Kelly (-11) & Rios (+6).

 

(Sarcasm alert)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It's a good thing we dumped Betts just in time.

 

His value is -28.

 

Maybe they'll take Eovaldi (-11) and JD (-22) for Betts (-28), Kelly (-11) & Rios (+6).

 

(Sarcasm alert)

 

The Red Sox would have to trade a lot of good prospects for a Hall of Famer like Betts -- and take back Price... but since we don't have a lot of good prospects, we'd have to get other teams involved. And then chip in some serious money, which is against current philosophy.

[moonslav59]

The Red Sox would have to trade a lot of good prospects for a Hall of Famer like Betts -- and take back Price... but since we don't have a lot of good prospects, we'd have to get other teams involved. And then chip in some serious money, which is against current philosophy.

 

Did you miss the "sarcasm alert?"

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Did you miss the "sarcasm alert?"

 

No, I thought you were alerting me to be sarcastic. But I'm just being my anti-emoji self.

[moonslav59]

No, I thought you were alerting me to be sarcastic. But I'm just being my anti-emoji self.

 

Good one!

[moonslav59]

ERod:

 

“I want to stay in Boston as long as my career goes,” he told Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. “I want to play in Boston forever. That’s where I got to the big leagues. That’s where I got an opportunity. That’s my family. That’s a ballpark where I really love to pitch — the history, everything.”

 

Rodriguez emphasized to Speier in their discussion, which is worth a full read, how well he is doing after a season cut off because of myocarditis and COVID-19. He expects to return to the mound next year after missing all of 2020 because of those health problems.

“I’m 100 percent and I can start doing everything,” he said. “I feel fine. I feel great.”

[Bellhorn04]

ERod:

 

“I want to stay in Boston as long as my career goes,” he told Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. “I want to play in Boston forever. That’s where I got to the big leagues. That’s where I got an opportunity. That’s my family. That’s a ballpark where I really love to pitch — the history, everything.”

 

Rodriguez emphasized to Speier in their discussion, which is worth a full read, how well he is doing after a season cut off because of myocarditis and COVID-19. He expects to return to the mound next year after missing all of 2020 because of those health problems.

“I’m 100 percent and I can start doing everything,” he said. “I feel fine. I feel great.”

 

Extend the man!

[Nick]

"Rodriguez agreed to an $8.3 million salary for 2020, his second year of arbitration, and is likely to receive a raise for 2021 despite not pitching last year. After being shut down for months, the lefty has been cleared to resume baseball activities and hopes to be 100% for the beginning of spring training."

 

Really? A pay raise without playing in 2021?

 

Maybe Bloom will make all this moot by extending him.

[Bellhorn04]

"Rodriguez agreed to an $8.3 million salary for 2020, his second year of arbitration, and is likely to receive a raise for 2021 despite not pitching last year. After being shut down for months, the lefty has been cleared to resume baseball activities and hopes to be 100% for the beginning of spring training."

 

Really? A pay raise without playing in 2021?

 

It's the way the arb system is now. JBJ got a raise for 2020 even though his 2019 season was worse than his 2018 season.

 

You only get good young players cheap for 4 seasons at the most now.

 

The fact that E-Rod didn't play shouldn't have any bearing, though. Not his fault he got the plague.

[mvp 78]

ERod:

 

“I want to stay in Boston as long as my career goes,” he told Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. “I want to play in Boston forever. That’s where I got to the big leagues. That’s where I got an opportunity. That’s my family. That’s a ballpark where I really love to pitch — the history, everything.”

 

Rodriguez emphasized to Speier in their discussion, which is worth a full read, how well he is doing after a season cut off because of myocarditis and COVID-19. He expects to return to the mound next year after missing all of 2020 because of those health problems.

“I’m 100 percent and I can start doing everything,” he said. “I feel fine. I feel great.”

 

Bring out your dead!

 

[clang] Bring out...

 

[rewr!] ...your dead!

 

[rewr!]

 

[clang]

 

Bring out your dead!

 

CUSTOMER: Here's one.

 

CART MASTER: Nine pence.

 

DEAD PERSON: I'm not dead!

 

CART MASTER: What?

 

CUSTOMER: Nothing. Here's your nine pence.

 

DEAD PERSON: I'm not dead!

 

CART MASTER: 'Ere. He says he's not dead!

 

CUSTOMER: Yes, he is.

 

DEAD PERSON: I'm not!

 

CART MASTER: He isn't?

 

CUSTOMER: Well, he will be soon. He's very ill.

 

DEAD PERSON: I'm getting better!

 

CUSTOMER: No, you're not. You'll be stone dead in a moment.

 

CART MASTER: Oh, I can't take him like that. It's against regulations.

 

DEAD PERSON: I don't want to go on the cart!

 

CUSTOMER: Oh, don't be such a baby.

 

CART MASTER: I can't take him.

 

DEAD PERSON: I feel fine!

 

CUSTOMER: Well, do us a favor.

 

CART MASTER: I can't.

 

CUSTOMER: Well, can you hang around a couple of minutes? He won't be long.

 

CART MASTER: No, I've got to go to the Robinsons'. They've lost nine today.

 

CUSTOMER: Well, when's your next round?

 

CART MASTER: Thursday.

 

DEAD PERSON: I think I'll go for a walk.

 

CUSTOMER: You're not fooling anyone, you know. Look. Isn't there something you can do?

 

DEAD PERSON: [singing] I feel happy. I feel happy.

 

[whop]

 

CUSTOMER: Ah, thanks very much.

 

CART MASTER: Not at all. See you on Thursday.

[mvp 78]

Extend the man!

 

It's always nice to hear when players like being here. I heard that one of the reasons Xander extended was because of his great relationship with some of the front office staff.

 

We usually dwell in misery on here because we rarely hear the good stuff.

[Bellhorn04]

It's always nice to hear when players like being here. I heard that one of the reasons Xander extended was because of his great relationship with some of the front office staff.

 

We usually dwell in misery on here because we rarely hear the good stuff.

 

True. And Xander's deal was a very reasonable one. It would have a great one if not for the darn opt-out. Hate those things.

[notin]

True. And Xander's deal was a very reasonable one. It would have a great one if not for the darn opt-out. Hate those things.

 

I usally like the opt outs, because if the player is good then you get those seasons from him and let someone else watch him decline. The opt out was the only redeeming feature of Price's contract. And I would have gladly let him walk after 3 years regardless of how good he was in his fourth, just to avoid the inevitable decline in the fifth, sixth and seventh seasons...